证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 11 月 25 日 辨析中国长债利率决定中的国际因素 ❑ 风险提示：国际货币金融体系变化 专题报告 谢亚轩 S1090511030010 xieyx@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 在实体经济和金融市场更为开放的条件下，国际因素在中国长债利率的决 定中应发挥着越来越重要的影响作用。对此，早期研究的焦点是外汇占 款。在央行退出常态化干预外汇市场之后，一个重要的研究方向继续聚焦 发达国家货币政策溢出效应。欧洲学者 Hélène Rey 的研究将传统国际 经济学中的"蒙代尔不可能三角（Trilemma）"推进到"二元悖论 （Dilemma）"。 ❑ 最新的进展是，国际清算银行（BIS）近期研究发现，2008 年以来的"全 球流动性第二阶段"中，非银行金融机构替代商业银行成为全球国际资本 流动的主力，公共部门替代私人部门成为扩张信用的主体，政府债券为载 体的国际证券组合资本替代银行信贷成为资本流动的主要形式，外汇掉期 市场替代银行信贷市场成为主要国际金融中介市场。因此，金融跨境传导 的研究重点也从货币政策转移到金融条件（Financial Co ...

Core Insights - The global stablecoin market is experiencing a dichotomy, with regulatory crackdowns in China contrasting with aggressive developments in international markets, such as Tether's $500 billion valuation financing and the European banks' initiative to develop a euro stablecoin [1][2] - The rise of stablecoins reflects a significant shift in global financial power dynamics and capital flows, posing challenges to national monetary sovereignty, particularly for countries feeling the pressure from the dominance of the US dollar [2][10] Regulatory Environment - Chinese authorities are tightening regulations on crypto assets, requiring local institutions to scale back their operations in Hong Kong, including activities related to stablecoins [1][2] - Hong Kong is positioning itself as a compliance testing ground for stablecoins, with stringent regulations expected to be implemented, including a high entry barrier and full reserve requirements [6][11] Market Dynamics - The total supply of stablecoins has surged from $5 billion in 2019 to $250 billion in 2024, indicating a 45-fold increase, which raises concerns about financial stability and regulatory oversight [5][12] - Major stablecoins like USDT and USDC dominate the market, with 99% of stablecoins pegged to the US dollar, highlighting the dollar's central role in the global financial system [7][8] Financial Innovation and Risks - Stablecoins aim to bridge the gap between traditional finance and the crypto market, but they carry systemic risks, as evidenced by the collapse of TerraUSD in 2022, which wiped out $40 billion in market value [3][5] - The lack of transparency and regulatory oversight in the stablecoin market raises concerns about potential misuse for illegal activities, such as money laundering [4][10] Strategic Implications - The US is leveraging stablecoins to reinforce its monetary dominance, with the recent GENIUS Act establishing a regulatory framework that ties stablecoins to US Treasury securities, effectively creating a mechanism for debt absorption [8][10] - The emergence of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is seen as a response to the challenges posed by private stablecoins, aiming to maintain monetary sovereignty and financial stability [12][13]

Core Insights - The global stablecoin market is experiencing a dichotomy, with regulatory crackdowns in China contrasting with aggressive developments in international markets, such as Tether's $500 billion valuation financing and the European banking consortium's plans for a euro stablecoin [2][3] - The emergence of stablecoins reflects a broader narrative of capital flow expansion and the restructuring of financial power in the digital age, posing systemic risks despite their intended stability [4][6] Regulatory Developments - China is using Hong Kong as a testing ground for compliant stablecoin development while pushing for the internationalization of the digital yuan, indicating a strategic response to perceived threats to national currency sovereignty [3][17] - The U.S. has accelerated stablecoin legislation through the GENIUS Act, aiming to solidify the dollar's dominance and create a mechanism for global users to indirectly purchase U.S. debt [13][14] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market has seen explosive growth, with total market capitalization increasing from $5 billion in 2019 to approximately $300 billion in 2023, highlighting a 45-fold increase over six years [7][11] - Major stablecoins like USDT and USDC dominate the market, accounting for over 90% of total stablecoin market capitalization, with USDT being the most widely used [11][12] Risk Factors - Concerns about the transparency and backing of stablecoins, particularly Tether, have been raised, with warnings from the Bank for International Settlements regarding their potential to facilitate illegal activities [6][7] - The lack of effective regulatory frameworks and the potential for market panic during liquidity crises pose significant risks to the stability of the stablecoin ecosystem [7][10] Future Outlook - The regulatory landscape is evolving, with new frameworks like Hong Kong's stringent stablecoin regulations and the EU's MiCA legislation indicating a shift towards compliance and oversight [9][10] - The competition for stablecoin dominance is likely to intensify, with emerging markets exploring alternatives to the dollar and the potential for a diversified international monetary system [15][18]

Group 1 - The core message of the news highlights the implications of the $20 billion currency swap negotiation initiated by the U.S. Treasury, which significantly impacted Argentina's 2035 dollar bonds, leading to a 4-cent increase in a single day, effectively reversing losses since the local elections [2][3] - The U.S. intervention aims to break Argentina's cycle of "depleting foreign reserves - currency depreciation - inflation rebound," with the central bank reportedly selling up to $678 million in reserves in a single day to maintain the agreed exchange rate with the IMF [2][3] - The $20 billion swap is designed to reshape market expectations regarding Argentina's debt repayment capabilities, alleviating depreciation pressure on the peso and stabilizing the market ahead of the midterm elections [3][4] Group 2 - Argentina's government faces a paradox of "reform commitments - electoral pressure - market trust," as austerity measures have reduced inflation from 289% to 34%, but GDP is projected to decline by 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with rising poverty rates [4][5] - The U.S. aid is seen as a temporary relief for the "pain of reform," with historical patterns indicating that economic stimulus before elections often yields short-term effects [4][5] - Investors are cautioned about the disconnection between short-term liquidity injections and long-term economic fundamentals, as Argentina has a history of debt defaults and high financing costs, which could exceed 10% even if it returns to international bond markets in 2026 [5][6] Group 3 - Argentina's case provides a clear risk pricing framework for emerging market investments, with its 2035 bonds yielding 420 basis points above the emerging market average, reflecting compensation for inflation, credit history, and political volatility [6][7] - Despite a reduction in the external debt-to-GDP ratio from 90% in 2020 to 65% in 2023, Argentina's primary fiscal surplus remains low at 1.2% of GDP, below the emerging market safety line [6][7] - Geopolitical factors add complexity to risk pricing, as U.S. relations with other Latin American countries elevate Argentina's strategic value, but potential shifts in policy following elections could jeopardize aid agreements [6][7] Group 4 - The situation in Argentina offers three key insights for investors in emerging markets: prioritizing liquidity over profitability, recognizing mismatches between political and investment cycles, and quantifying geopolitical premiums [7][8] - Investors should be aware that liquidity injections in countries with low foreign reserves can lead to capital controls, affecting profit repatriation [7][8] - The requirement for "market-oriented foreign exchange reforms" as a condition for U.S. aid could lead to significant depreciation of the peso, posing risks for investors holding local currency assets [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The seminar "Investment for Good" focused on ESG and charitable asset management, highlighting the importance of understanding macroeconomic variables in equity investment [1][3]. Group 1: Asset Classification and Principles - Major asset classes include foreign exchange, government bonds, stocks, and commodities, with the principle that all returns are compensation for risk taken [4]. - Investment goals dictate the types and levels of risk exposure, with conservative goals favoring government bonds and aggressive goals allowing for more stocks and derivatives [4]. - The optimization of returns within specific risk-return requirements is essential, aiming to select the best-performing assets under given risk conditions [5]. Group 2: Stock Investment Insights - Two approaches were identified for how major asset classes can aid stock investment: understanding non-fundamental stock fluctuations through macro variables and analyzing investment cycles using the Merrill Lynch Clock [8][9]. - Economic cycles can be assessed through indicators like the gold-to-copper ratio, which helps define the current economic phase [8]. - The relationship between different asset classes, such as the inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, is crucial for understanding market dynamics [12]. Group 3: Current Challenges in Asset Management - The global economy is undergoing a new cycle characterized by de-globalization, leading to misaligned economic cycles across different regions [16]. - Long-term risk-return profiles are declining due to prolonged monetary easing in the U.S. and demographic shifts in China, complicating investment strategies [17]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has shifted, necessitating a greater allocation to counter-cyclical assets like gold [18]. Group 4: Asset Outlook - Short-term prospects for U.S. dollar assets appear positive due to potential economic soft landing, but long-term risks remain due to increasing debt levels [19]. - Commodity prices, particularly oil and gold, are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, with copper benefiting from demand driven by new energy technologies [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent regulatory developments regarding stablecoins in the US, EU, and Hong Kong, highlighting that stablecoins represent a relatively outdated monetary system characterized by rigid reserves, fixed prices, and strict regulatory constraints [2][15]. Group 1: Definition and Purpose of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are not a new concept, with existing examples like USDT and USDC, and they serve as a stable medium for trading digital assets due to the volatility of cryptocurrencies [4][6]. - Governments are motivated to regulate stablecoins to incorporate them into the financial system, embrace technological advancements, and increase the reserve of US dollars and US Treasury bonds, which currently amount to approximately $1.8 trillion in stablecoin holdings [5][6]. Group 2: Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are defined by several common characteristics: they are pegged to fiat currencies, require 1:1 reserves of fiat or short-term government bonds, are subject to strict regulatory oversight, and cannot pay interest to holders [6][7]. - They are seen as a form of currency with asset properties, primarily used for payment and settlement [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Evolution - The evolution of currency has seen a shift from physical commodities like gold to more efficient forms of money, such as banknotes, which were initially backed by gold reserves [8][9]. - The introduction of central banks and the end of the gold standard led to the current fiat currency system, where the stability of currency value is maintained through government intervention [10][12]. Group 4: Critique of Stablecoin Regulations - The article argues that the current regulatory framework for stablecoins is flawed, as it imposes strict asset reserve requirements that may not be sustainable in the long term, potentially leading to liquidity issues [20][21]. - Fixed pricing mechanisms in stablecoins are criticized for being unable to adapt to market demands, which could lead to systemic risks similar to those seen during the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [22][23]. Group 5: Future Prospects for Stablecoins - The introduction of stablecoin regulations marks a significant acknowledgment of the legitimacy of private currency issuance, which could lead to increased market participation and liquidity [29][30]. - However, the long-term viability of stablecoins will be constrained by current regulatory frameworks, which may hinder their ability to compete with traditional fiat currencies [31][34].