作者｜马琼 编辑｜曹晟源 本文首发于钛媒体APP 2025年9月下旬，全球稳定币市场呈现出一幅冷暖交织的鲜明图景。 一边是监管的"急刹车"：据财新9月23日消息，中资机构在港的加密资产业务近期被明确要求收缩，包 括投资、交易、发行RWA、稳定币等。降温之下暗流涌动，社交媒体日前流传全球首个与离岸人民币 挂钩的稳定币已在港发行，不过消息被官方迅速辟谣。 另一边却是国际市场的"狂热竞速"：9月24日，全球最大稳定币发行方Tether被曝正寻求以5000亿美元估 值融资，这一体量足以比肩OpenAI和SpaceX等科技巨头。而欧洲九大银行财团日前官宣将开发欧元稳 定币，以寻求美元替代方案。 这种看似割裂的市场生态，实则是"蒙代尔不可能三角"在数字时代的赤裸演绎——当资本自由流动、汇 率稳定与货币主权的平衡被打破，各国的战略选择必然分化，由此也揭开当前全球金融竞争的核心命 题。 当美国加速将稳定币打造为"链上美元"，以巩固货币霸权并企图让全球用户为美债接盘时，世界多国已 清晰感受到本国货币主权被挤压的现实挑战。中国则明确路径，以香港为"合规试验田"探索发展边界， 同时坚定推进数字人民币国际化进程。一场围绕数字时代货币 ...

Core Insights - The global stablecoin market is experiencing a dichotomy, with regulatory crackdowns in China contrasting with aggressive developments in international markets, such as Tether's $500 billion valuation financing and the European banking consortium's plans for a euro stablecoin [2][3] - The emergence of stablecoins reflects a broader narrative of capital flow expansion and the restructuring of financial power in the digital age, posing systemic risks despite their intended stability [4][6] Regulatory Developments - China is using Hong Kong as a testing ground for compliant stablecoin development while pushing for the internationalization of the digital yuan, indicating a strategic response to perceived threats to national currency sovereignty [3][17] - The U.S. has accelerated stablecoin legislation through the GENIUS Act, aiming to solidify the dollar's dominance and create a mechanism for global users to indirectly purchase U.S. debt [13][14] Market Dynamics - The stablecoin market has seen explosive growth, with total market capitalization increasing from $5 billion in 2019 to approximately $300 billion in 2023, highlighting a 45-fold increase over six years [7][11] - Major stablecoins like USDT and USDC dominate the market, accounting for over 90% of total stablecoin market capitalization, with USDT being the most widely used [11][12] Risk Factors - Concerns about the transparency and backing of stablecoins, particularly Tether, have been raised, with warnings from the Bank for International Settlements regarding their potential to facilitate illegal activities [6][7] - The lack of effective regulatory frameworks and the potential for market panic during liquidity crises pose significant risks to the stability of the stablecoin ecosystem [7][10] Future Outlook - The regulatory landscape is evolving, with new frameworks like Hong Kong's stringent stablecoin regulations and the EU's MiCA legislation indicating a shift towards compliance and oversight [9][10] - The competition for stablecoin dominance is likely to intensify, with emerging markets exploring alternatives to the dollar and the potential for a diversified international monetary system [15][18]

Group 1 - The core message of the news highlights the implications of the $20 billion currency swap negotiation initiated by the U.S. Treasury, which significantly impacted Argentina's 2035 dollar bonds, leading to a 4-cent increase in a single day, effectively reversing losses since the local elections [2][3] - The U.S. intervention aims to break Argentina's cycle of "depleting foreign reserves - currency depreciation - inflation rebound," with the central bank reportedly selling up to $678 million in reserves in a single day to maintain the agreed exchange rate with the IMF [2][3] - The $20 billion swap is designed to reshape market expectations regarding Argentina's debt repayment capabilities, alleviating depreciation pressure on the peso and stabilizing the market ahead of the midterm elections [3][4] Group 2 - Argentina's government faces a paradox of "reform commitments - electoral pressure - market trust," as austerity measures have reduced inflation from 289% to 34%, but GDP is projected to decline by 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 2024, with rising poverty rates [4][5] - The U.S. aid is seen as a temporary relief for the "pain of reform," with historical patterns indicating that economic stimulus before elections often yields short-term effects [4][5] - Investors are cautioned about the disconnection between short-term liquidity injections and long-term economic fundamentals, as Argentina has a history of debt defaults and high financing costs, which could exceed 10% even if it returns to international bond markets in 2026 [5][6] Group 3 - Argentina's case provides a clear risk pricing framework for emerging market investments, with its 2035 bonds yielding 420 basis points above the emerging market average, reflecting compensation for inflation, credit history, and political volatility [6][7] - Despite a reduction in the external debt-to-GDP ratio from 90% in 2020 to 65% in 2023, Argentina's primary fiscal surplus remains low at 1.2% of GDP, below the emerging market safety line [6][7] - Geopolitical factors add complexity to risk pricing, as U.S. relations with other Latin American countries elevate Argentina's strategic value, but potential shifts in policy following elections could jeopardize aid agreements [6][7] Group 4 - The situation in Argentina offers three key insights for investors in emerging markets: prioritizing liquidity over profitability, recognizing mismatches between political and investment cycles, and quantifying geopolitical premiums [7][8] - Investors should be aware that liquidity injections in countries with low foreign reserves can lead to capital controls, affecting profit repatriation [7][8] - The requirement for "market-oriented foreign exchange reforms" as a condition for U.S. aid could lead to significant depreciation of the peso, posing risks for investors holding local currency assets [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The seminar "Investment for Good" focused on ESG and charitable asset management, highlighting the importance of understanding macroeconomic variables in equity investment [1][3]. Group 1: Asset Classification and Principles - Major asset classes include foreign exchange, government bonds, stocks, and commodities, with the principle that all returns are compensation for risk taken [4]. - Investment goals dictate the types and levels of risk exposure, with conservative goals favoring government bonds and aggressive goals allowing for more stocks and derivatives [4]. - The optimization of returns within specific risk-return requirements is essential, aiming to select the best-performing assets under given risk conditions [5]. Group 2: Stock Investment Insights - Two approaches were identified for how major asset classes can aid stock investment: understanding non-fundamental stock fluctuations through macro variables and analyzing investment cycles using the Merrill Lynch Clock [8][9]. - Economic cycles can be assessed through indicators like the gold-to-copper ratio, which helps define the current economic phase [8]. - The relationship between different asset classes, such as the inverse correlation between stocks and bonds, is crucial for understanding market dynamics [12]. Group 3: Current Challenges in Asset Management - The global economy is undergoing a new cycle characterized by de-globalization, leading to misaligned economic cycles across different regions [16]. - Long-term risk-return profiles are declining due to prolonged monetary easing in the U.S. and demographic shifts in China, complicating investment strategies [17]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has shifted, necessitating a greater allocation to counter-cyclical assets like gold [18]. Group 4: Asset Outlook - Short-term prospects for U.S. dollar assets appear positive due to potential economic soft landing, but long-term risks remain due to increasing debt levels [19]. - Commodity prices, particularly oil and gold, are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, with copper benefiting from demand driven by new energy technologies [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent regulatory developments regarding stablecoins in the US, EU, and Hong Kong, highlighting that stablecoins represent a relatively outdated monetary system characterized by rigid reserves, fixed prices, and strict regulatory constraints [2][15]. Group 1: Definition and Purpose of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are not a new concept, with existing examples like USDT and USDC, and they serve as a stable medium for trading digital assets due to the volatility of cryptocurrencies [4][6]. - Governments are motivated to regulate stablecoins to incorporate them into the financial system, embrace technological advancements, and increase the reserve of US dollars and US Treasury bonds, which currently amount to approximately $1.8 trillion in stablecoin holdings [5][6]. Group 2: Characteristics of Stablecoins - Stablecoins are defined by several common characteristics: they are pegged to fiat currencies, require 1:1 reserves of fiat or short-term government bonds, are subject to strict regulatory oversight, and cannot pay interest to holders [6][7]. - They are seen as a form of currency with asset properties, primarily used for payment and settlement [7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Evolution - The evolution of currency has seen a shift from physical commodities like gold to more efficient forms of money, such as banknotes, which were initially backed by gold reserves [8][9]. - The introduction of central banks and the end of the gold standard led to the current fiat currency system, where the stability of currency value is maintained through government intervention [10][12]. Group 4: Critique of Stablecoin Regulations - The article argues that the current regulatory framework for stablecoins is flawed, as it imposes strict asset reserve requirements that may not be sustainable in the long term, potentially leading to liquidity issues [20][21]. - Fixed pricing mechanisms in stablecoins are criticized for being unable to adapt to market demands, which could lead to systemic risks similar to those seen during the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [22][23]. Group 5: Future Prospects for Stablecoins - The introduction of stablecoin regulations marks a significant acknowledgment of the legitimacy of private currency issuance, which could lead to increased market participation and liquidity [29][30]. - However, the long-term viability of stablecoins will be constrained by current regulatory frameworks, which may hinder their ability to compete with traditional fiat currencies [31][34].