法国政局动荡加剧，新防长勒梅尔宣布退出政府以促进组阁谈判。 10月6日周一，刚被任命为新任国防部长的勒梅尔宣布退出政府。勒梅尔在社交媒体上发文解释其退出决定： 我注意到，我的决定引发了一些人难以理解且有失偏颇的反应。我希望这一决定能让围绕组建法国所需要的新政府的讨论得以重启。 这位担任了七年法国财政部长的马克龙亲密盟友，在周日晚间刚被任命为新任国防部长，但仅一天后就宣布退出。他的决定是在总理勒科尔尼辞 职后作出的。 据央视报道，法国总理勒科尔尼向总统马克龙递交辞呈，马克龙已接受辞呈。勒科尔尼上任不足30天，他在辞职讲话中坦言，由于不同政治派别 的顽固立场，"执政的条件尚不具备"。 法国新一轮政治危机正在迅速演变为市场动荡，投资者对该国财政稳定性的担忧急剧升温。周一法国10年期国债收益率与德国国债的利差扩大至 年内最高水平，超过89个基点。法国CAC 40指数收跌1.36%。 周二欧元兑美元汇率仍延续前一日颓势，跌破1.170整数关口。 "48小时"倒计时 据央视新闻，已辞职的总理勒科尔尼在离任讲话中承认，在当前的政治环境下，"治理法国是一项艰难的任务"。 他表示，过去近一个月中多次尝试与国民议会内不同政治派别 ...

勒科尔尼在电视讲话中坦言："我无法履行总理职务，因为条件没有得到满足。"他还称，法国议会中的 其他政党未能作出必要妥协："我已准备好作出妥协，但每个政党都期待其他政党全盘接受其议程。" 勒科尔尼是马克龙在过去两年内任命的第五位总理，同时也成为自1958年第五共和国成立以来任期最短 的总理。事实上，自2024年法国提前举行大选后未能产生拥有绝对多数的政党后，法国政治运作长期陷 入瘫痪状态。 沙夫里克认为："政治问题意味着法国所面临的任何问题都将难以得到解决。" 据央视新闻，当地时间10月6日，法国总理勒科尔尼向总统马克龙递交辞呈，马克龙已接受辞呈。 就在前一晚，勒科尔尼刚刚完成其内阁部长成员的任命工作。此时，距离马克龙任命勒科尔尼为新任法 国总理的9月9日尚不足一个月。 原本计划于当地时间周二（10月7日）提交部长会议审议的法国国家预算草案，也因此打乱了时间表， 引发市场波动。截至第一财经记者发稿时，法国CAC40指数下跌1.5%，欧元兑美元汇率下挫0.66%。此 外，法国30年期政府债券收益率一度冲高至4.441%，创下一个月新高，之后略有回落。 是什么引发强烈反弹 对外经济贸易大学法国经济研究中心主任、巴黎 ...

欧元兑美元周一从1.1725区域展开的反弹，在1.1800区域遇阻回落。技术指标显示，该货币对的反弹动 能已有所减弱，但相对强弱指数（RSI）仍维持在50关口上方的正值区间。欧元兑美元的即时支撑位位 于9月2日低点延伸的趋势线上，当前该趋势线在1.1730区域。若汇价跌破该位置并确认失守，空头压力 将进一步加大，可能先后下探9月12日低点1.1700区域和9月11日低点1.1660区域。上行方面，日内高点 1.1820以及9月18日高点（接近1.1850），大概率会对汇价潜在的看涨反弹形成阻力，而进一步阻力则看 向9月16日高点1.1878。 周三（9月24日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元下跌，目前交投于1.17附近，截止北京时间11:41分，欧元兑美 元报价1.1798，跌幅0.11%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1811。瑞士宝盛预计欧洲央行将在12月降 息，并承认存在宽松政策减少以及货币政策宽松周期提前结束的风险，经济学家戴维·迈耶 （DavidMeier）在一份报告中表示。 "鉴于目前的政策立场为中性，存款利率为2.00%，且无需转向更宽松的政策，我们坚持认为欧洲央行 下次降息将在12月，"他表示。迈耶表示 ...

"欧洲央行管理委员会一致决定将所有三项主要利率维持不变，拉加德表示，关于经济预测和风险的讨 论是"在桌子上达成一致的"。欧洲央行将采取数据依赖的、逐次会议的方针来确定适宜的货币政策立 场，并声明"我们不会预先承诺具体的利率路径，并且我们随时准备调整我们所有的工具"。经济增长的 风险已变得更加平衡，尽管近期的贸易协定减少了不确定性，但贸易关系的任何重新恶化都可能进一步 抑制出口，并拖累投资和消费。尽管预计更高的关税、更强的欧元以及日益激烈的全球竞争将抑制今年 剩余时间的增长，但这些逆风对经济增长的影响应会在明年消退。 欧元兑美元4小时图显示明确的多头格局，当前价位1.1747稳居所有关键均线上方：22周期SMA为 1.1661，50周期SMA为1.1630，100周期SMA为1.1624，200周期SMA为1.1664，反映短期趋势偏上行。 MACD指标(参数26,12,9)进一步印证：DIFF线0.0023，DEA线0.0019，柱状图0.0007，正值运行暗示动 能温和扩张，未现背离信号，日内0.13%回落属正常调整而非趋势逆转。成交量未明显放大，但价格守 住1.17整数关口，强化多头控盘。 周五（9月12 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is trading around 1.16 against the US dollar, with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% during its meeting on September 11, aligning with market expectations [1] Economic Outlook - A significant majority of economists (66 out of 69) predict that the ECB will keep the deposit rate unchanged, indicating a consensus on the current monetary policy stance [1] - Recent data shows inflation nearing the ECB's target of 2%, and the unemployment rate is at historical lows, leading to the belief that the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle [1] - Approximately 60% of economists (40 out of 69) forecast that the ECB will maintain interest rates for the remainder of the year [1] Economic Growth Projections - Economists project that the Eurozone economy will grow by 1.2% this year and 1.1% next year, which is consistent with the findings from the August survey [1] - There are warnings regarding potential risks in the region, including the contraction of the German economy and political instability in some Eurozone countries [1] Currency Trading Insights - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently in a consolidation pattern below resistance levels, with a focus on the monthly opening range of 1.1586 to 1.1775 [1] - From a trading perspective, if the Euro intends to continue its upward trend, it must keep declines above 1.1497 and close above the current trading range to initiate a new major upward wave [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the euro is experiencing a slight increase against the dollar, with the latest exchange rate at 1.1671, reflecting a 0.20% rise, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged [1] - The German Economic Institute (DWS) suggests that the eurozone's economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with inflation hovering around 2%, and only a few countries showing signs of labor market weakness [1] - ING's Francesco Pesole reports that the interest rate differential between the US and the eurozone supports the potential rise of the euro against the dollar, predicting that the euro/dollar exchange rate may exceed 1.170 in the coming months [2] Group 2 - The euro/dollar exchange rate faced support above 1.1630 and encountered resistance below 1.1670, indicating a potential upward trend after a short-term decline [2] - Current market expectations suggest that the US Federal Reserve may implement more significant rate cuts than anticipated, while the eurozone market only sees a 30% chance of a rate cut by the ECB before the end of the year [2] - Short-term resistance levels for the euro are identified between 1.1660 and 1.1690, with support levels between 1.1625 and 1.1630 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar may react to the upcoming non-farm payroll report, which could reinforce expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The employment report is expected to set the tone for the market in the coming weeks [1] - There is a strong risk that a significant decline in the dollar may not surpass the initial reaction to the data, as rate cut expectations have already been priced in by the market [1] Group 2: Currency Projections - The mid-term target for the euro against the dollar is maintained at 1.20, with expectations that the exchange rate will gradually and slowly approach this level [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is experiencing internal disagreements regarding the inflation outlook, which is impacting the euro's exchange rate against the US dollar [1] Group 1: ECB's Monetary Policy - The ECB's July meeting minutes reveal a split among officials about the inflation outlook, with some believing risks are skewed to the downside due to weak growth prospects and US tariffs [1] - Other officials warn that risks may still lean towards the upside, particularly due to uncertainties related to energy and exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates unchanged in July, marking the end of a year-long easing cycle with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate at 2.0% [1] Group 2: Euro to USD Exchange Rate - As of September 3, the euro is trading at approximately 1.1626 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 0.11% from the previous close of 1.1639 [1] - The euro's price action shows a convergence in volatility, with the Bollinger Bands indicating a middle band at 1.1625 and an upper band at 1.1782, suggesting a "gradual upward movement + high-level consolidation" structure [1] - The key resistance level for the euro is identified at the Bollinger upper band of 1.1782 and the previous high of 1.1829, with potential for repeated testing if a significant breakout does not occur [1]

Currency and Economic Outlook - Citic Securities predicts that the RMB exchange rate may require more catalysts to break the 7 level, despite a recent appreciation driven by external and internal factors [1] - Goldman Sachs expects an acceleration in trading activity in France despite political turmoil, indicating that France remains an attractive investment destination [2] - MUFG analysts believe that the current political situation in France is unlikely to disrupt the upward trend of the euro [3] - Deutsche Bank reports that the UK 30-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 1998, raising concerns about public finance sustainability [3] Inflation and Interest Rates - CICC forecasts that the US inflation rate may continue to rise, impacting the bond market dynamics [4] - Huatai Securities emphasizes that a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive down real interest rates in the US, benefiting gold investments [5] - The analysis suggests that unless the US economy returns to a high-growth, low-inflation scenario, the current gold buying strategy may persist [5] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that typical gold companies currently have favorable valuations and are expected to benefit significantly from rising gold prices and increased production [5] - The narrowing gold-silver ratio is anticipated to occur after a period of monetary easing, suggesting potential investment opportunities in silver if the economy stabilizes post-rate cuts [5]

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar has seen a slight decline, currently trading around 1.16, with a drop of 0.09% from the previous close of 1.1706 [1] - European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Kazaks indicated that the ECB has entered a new phase of monetary policy, shifting focus from active economic intervention to continuous monitoring of economic dynamics [1] - Kazaks noted that the current inflation rate is close to the 2% target, and recent economic data does not show significant deviation from the June quarterly forecast, suggesting no need for further rate cuts at this time [1] Group 2 - From a technical perspective, the euro against the US dollar has shown limited progress, with the weekly chart indicating that buyers are looking for entry points on dips [2] - The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is currently at 1.1520, providing support for buying, despite losing upward momentum [2] - Momentum indicators have shown a shift but remain in positive territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 63, indicating no clear directional guidance [2]