11月21日欧亚时段，欧元兑美元汇率在1.15整数关口展开拉锯战，最新报1.1532，较前一交易日微涨 0.08%，连续四个交易日在1.15-1.1550区间窄幅震荡。这一胶着态势背后，是欧元区通胀数据回暖、欧 央行政策鹰鸽博弈，以及美元指数阶段性承压的三重力量制衡。从交叉盘表现看，欧元兑英镑报 0.8816，兑人民币报8.2518，日内波动幅度收于0.2%以下，反映市场对欧元短期走势的分歧与谨慎。 技术形态上，欧元兑美元正处于"矩形整理"阶段，1.15关口从前期阻力转化为核心支撑。短期交易区间 锁定在1.1480-1.1550，上方关键阻力位于1.1558——该点位是11月7日阶段性高点，且与120日均线重合 形成强压制，若有效突破可打开至1.1620-1.1650的上行空间。支撑端呈双重防御，1.15-1.1480为第一支 撑带，失守后下一档支撑将指向1.1420，此处既是11月20日反弹起点，也是60日均线所在，技术支撑稳 固。 技术指标释放中性偏多信号。均线系统中，20日均线与30日均线形成金叉，汇率运行于短期均线上方， 构建初步支撑；MACD指标在零轴上方维持红柱，虽幅度收窄，但多头主导格局未改。R ...

Core Points - The political situation in France is becoming increasingly unstable, with the newly appointed Defense Minister Le Maire resigning to facilitate government formation discussions [2] - Prime Minister Le Cornu resigned after less than 30 days in office, citing the inability to govern due to entrenched political divisions [2][8] - The resignation of key political figures has led to heightened concerns among investors regarding France's fiscal stability, as evidenced by the widening yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds [2] - The CAC 40 index fell by 1.36% amid these political developments [2] Group 1 - Le Maire's resignation was intended to restart discussions on forming a new government [2] - Le Cornu acknowledged the difficulty of governing France in the current political climate, highlighting the lack of constructive dialogue among political parties [8] - The political crisis is evolving into market turmoil, with significant implications for investor confidence [2] Group 2 - The yield spread between French and German 10-year bonds reached its highest level of the year, exceeding 89 basis points [2] - The euro continued to decline against the dollar, breaking below the 1.170 mark [5] - Le Cornu is tasked with conducting final negotiations with political parties to maintain national stability, with a deadline of 48 hours set by President Macron [9]

Core Viewpoint - The resignation of French Prime Minister Leclerc has intensified the political crisis in France, leading to market volatility and concerns over the government's ability to address pressing issues [1][8]. Group 1: Political Context - Leclerc's resignation comes less than a month after his appointment, marking him as the shortest-serving Prime Minister since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958 [1]. - The French political landscape has been paralyzed since the 2024 elections failed to produce a party with an absolute majority, complicating governance [1][4]. - Leclerc's cabinet appointments were criticized for lacking significant changes, reflecting a continuation of Macron's pro-business stance, which has drawn ire from both left and right political factions [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Following Leclerc's resignation, the CAC40 index fell by 1.5%, and the euro depreciated by 0.66% against the dollar, indicating market instability [1]. - The yield on 30-year French government bonds surged to 4.441%, the highest in a month, before slightly retreating, highlighting investor concerns [1]. - The spread between French and German government bond yields reached 0.88 percentage points, nearing the highest level since the eurozone debt crisis, signaling heightened market anxiety [7]. Group 3: Social Unrest - France is experiencing widespread public discontent, with significant protests against government austerity measures, exacerbated by high inflation affecting lower-income groups [6]. - The political deadlock has led to calls for reform from various political leaders, with threats of no-confidence votes if changes are not made [4][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that Macron may have limited options, potentially leading to the dissolution of the National Assembly or triggering new presidential elections, with the former being more likely [7]. - The ongoing political uncertainty is causing investors to adopt a cautious approach, complicating the investment landscape in Europe [7].

Group 1 - The euro against the US dollar is currently trading around 1.17, with a slight decline of 0.11% from the previous closing price of 1.1811 [1] - Credit Suisse anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will lower interest rates in December, acknowledging risks of reduced easing policies and an early end to the monetary easing cycle [1] - Economist David Meier from Credit Suisse maintains that the ECB's next rate cut is expected in December, with a total of two rate cuts anticipated [1] Group 2 - The euro against the US dollar experienced a rebound from the 1.1725 area but faced resistance around 1.1800, indicating weakened upward momentum [2] - The immediate support level for the euro against the US dollar is at the trend line extending from the September 2 low, currently around 1.1730 [2] - If the exchange rate breaks below this support level, it may further decline to the September 12 low of 1.1700 and the September 11 low of 1.1660 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining its current interest rates and is adopting a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, emphasizing that the process of combating inflation has ended, but the economic outlook remains uncertain [1] - ECB President Christine Lagarde stated that the discussions regarding economic forecasts and risks were agreed upon by the governing council, highlighting a consensus on the current economic stance [1] - The ECB is prepared to adjust its tools as necessary and will not commit to a specific interest rate path in advance, indicating flexibility in its monetary policy approach [1] Group 2 - The EUR/USD currency pair shows a clear bullish pattern, with the current price of 1.1747 remaining above all key moving averages, suggesting a short-term upward trend [2] - The MACD indicator supports this bullish sentiment, with positive values indicating mild momentum expansion and no signs of divergence, suggesting that the recent 0.13% pullback is a normal adjustment rather than a trend reversal [2] - Trading volume has not significantly increased, but the price holding above the 1.17 level reinforces the bullish control in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is trading around 1.16 against the US dollar, with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will maintain the deposit rate at 2.00% during its meeting on September 11, aligning with market expectations [1] Economic Outlook - A significant majority of economists (66 out of 69) predict that the ECB will keep the deposit rate unchanged, indicating a consensus on the current monetary policy stance [1] - Recent data shows inflation nearing the ECB's target of 2%, and the unemployment rate is at historical lows, leading to the belief that the ECB has completed its rate-cutting cycle [1] - Approximately 60% of economists (40 out of 69) forecast that the ECB will maintain interest rates for the remainder of the year [1] Economic Growth Projections - Economists project that the Eurozone economy will grow by 1.2% this year and 1.1% next year, which is consistent with the findings from the August survey [1] - There are warnings regarding potential risks in the region, including the contraction of the German economy and political instability in some Eurozone countries [1] Currency Trading Insights - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently in a consolidation pattern below resistance levels, with a focus on the monthly opening range of 1.1586 to 1.1775 [1] - From a trading perspective, if the Euro intends to continue its upward trend, it must keep declines above 1.1497 and close above the current trading range to initiate a new major upward wave [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the euro is experiencing a slight increase against the dollar, with the latest exchange rate at 1.1671, reflecting a 0.20% rise, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged [1] - The German Economic Institute (DWS) suggests that the eurozone's economic growth in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, with inflation hovering around 2%, and only a few countries showing signs of labor market weakness [1] - ING's Francesco Pesole reports that the interest rate differential between the US and the eurozone supports the potential rise of the euro against the dollar, predicting that the euro/dollar exchange rate may exceed 1.170 in the coming months [2] Group 2 - The euro/dollar exchange rate faced support above 1.1630 and encountered resistance below 1.1670, indicating a potential upward trend after a short-term decline [2] - Current market expectations suggest that the US Federal Reserve may implement more significant rate cuts than anticipated, while the eurozone market only sees a 30% chance of a rate cut by the ECB before the end of the year [2] - Short-term resistance levels for the euro are identified between 1.1660 and 1.1690, with support levels between 1.1625 and 1.1630 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The dollar may react to the upcoming non-farm payroll report, which could reinforce expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The employment report is expected to set the tone for the market in the coming weeks [1] - There is a strong risk that a significant decline in the dollar may not surpass the initial reaction to the data, as rate cut expectations have already been priced in by the market [1] Group 2: Currency Projections - The mid-term target for the euro against the dollar is maintained at 1.20, with expectations that the exchange rate will gradually and slowly approach this level [1]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is experiencing internal disagreements regarding the inflation outlook, which is impacting the euro's exchange rate against the US dollar [1] Group 1: ECB's Monetary Policy - The ECB's July meeting minutes reveal a split among officials about the inflation outlook, with some believing risks are skewed to the downside due to weak growth prospects and US tariffs [1] - Other officials warn that risks may still lean towards the upside, particularly due to uncertainties related to energy and exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The ECB maintained interest rates unchanged in July, marking the end of a year-long easing cycle with the main refinancing rate at 2.15% and the deposit facility rate at 2.0% [1] Group 2: Euro to USD Exchange Rate - As of September 3, the euro is trading at approximately 1.1626 against the US dollar, reflecting a decline of 0.11% from the previous close of 1.1639 [1] - The euro's price action shows a convergence in volatility, with the Bollinger Bands indicating a middle band at 1.1625 and an upper band at 1.1782, suggesting a "gradual upward movement + high-level consolidation" structure [1] - The key resistance level for the euro is identified at the Bollinger upper band of 1.1782 and the previous high of 1.1829, with potential for repeated testing if a significant breakout does not occur [1]

Currency and Economic Outlook - Citic Securities predicts that the RMB exchange rate may require more catalysts to break the 7 level, despite a recent appreciation driven by external and internal factors [1] - Goldman Sachs expects an acceleration in trading activity in France despite political turmoil, indicating that France remains an attractive investment destination [2] - MUFG analysts believe that the current political situation in France is unlikely to disrupt the upward trend of the euro [3] - Deutsche Bank reports that the UK 30-year government bond yield has reached its highest level since 1998, raising concerns about public finance sustainability [3] Inflation and Interest Rates - CICC forecasts that the US inflation rate may continue to rise, impacting the bond market dynamics [4] - Huatai Securities emphasizes that a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve could drive down real interest rates in the US, benefiting gold investments [5] - The analysis suggests that unless the US economy returns to a high-growth, low-inflation scenario, the current gold buying strategy may persist [5] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that typical gold companies currently have favorable valuations and are expected to benefit significantly from rising gold prices and increased production [5] - The narrowing gold-silver ratio is anticipated to occur after a period of monetary easing, suggesting potential investment opportunities in silver if the economy stabilizes post-rate cuts [5]