Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) has seen a significant increase, with a rise of over 9% and reaching a peak of 2189 points, driven by COSCO's announcement of increased freight rates for 40-foot containers from $2500 to $2700, indicating a positive trend in the short term for the shipping market [1][2]. Group 1: Shipping Market Dynamics - The current shipping market is characterized by a divergence between the European and American lines, with the European line facing challenges such as low demand momentum and low loading rates, limiting the potential for freight rate increases [2]. - Several shipping companies have attempted to raise rates on both the American and European lines, but market skepticism regarding the effectiveness of these price increases has emerged, particularly after previous failed attempts [2]. - The key to the shipping market's expectations lies in the growth rhythm of traditional peak season cargo volumes and the coordination of cross-route capacity adjustments, with a focus on the loading rates in the European line and cargo conversion efficiency in the American line [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the stability of spot freight rates will determine the trajectory of the shipping index (European line) in the short term, with a need to maintain current levels to solidify peak season expectations [2]. - The shipping market is entering a critical verification phase, where the actual performance of freight rates in early June will be crucial for future trends [2]. - There is a cautious outlook on the American line's "rush shipping" scale, with some analysts not optimistic about its impact on the European line, as recent data indicates a decrease in weekly capacity for the Shanghai-Northern Europe route [2].

Core Insights - The substantial progress in high-level Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks has led to a significant rebound in the European shipping index futures, with the main contract EC2508 closing at 2387 points, reflecting a nearly 50% increase over the past week [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rebound in the European shipping index is primarily driven by expectations of restored exports from Chinese companies to the U.S., leading to a "rush for shipping" [1] - The 90-day tariff exemption period has prompted traders to enter a "rush for shipping," resulting in some routes experiencing "overcapacity" [2] - Shipping companies are actively pushing for capacity to return to the U.S. routes, with a reported 25% reduction in capacity on U.S. routes due to previous trade tensions [2] Group 2: Capacity Adjustments - Since the announcement of the U.S. "reciprocal tariff" policy, shipping companies have transferred a total of 10 vessels, equating to 130,000 TEU, from U.S. routes to European routes [3] - The number of canceled sailings to the U.S. has decreased significantly, with a reduction of 5 sailings in the week of May 19-23 [3] - The average weekly capacity for the European route in June is projected to be 290,000 TEU, which is a 12% year-on-year increase [4] Group 3: Pricing Trends - The SCFI rates for U.S. West and East routes have increased by 31.7% and 22% respectively, with current rates at $3091/FEU and $4069/FEU [2] - Major shipping companies have raised their quotes for the European route to between $3000 and $3400/FEU for the first half of June [2][5] - Despite the price increases, there is skepticism about the sustainability of these hikes due to high capacity levels and the absence of widespread "overcapacity" [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations, with significant attention on the European route and the potential impact of U.S. tariff policy adjustments [7] - The actual realization of price increases in June remains uncertain, with expectations that the market will continue to assess the true demand from the U.S. [6][7] - The futures market is anticipated to remain volatile, influenced by the dynamics of supply and demand, particularly in relation to U.S. shipping volumes [6][7]

中美关税暂缓，重视航运港口板块 20240514 摘要 • 中美关税政策调整导致美线抢运，短期内运价大幅上涨。五月份美西运价 已上涨至 3,500 美元，涨幅达 40%，预计未来 90 天运价可能升至 5,000 美元左右，涨幅超过 50%。 • 需求侧方面，预计未来 90 天美线单季度货量将达 600 万 TEU，同比增长 20%，供需差可能达到 30%甚至 50%以上，短期供需高度不平衡。 • 中远海控作为 A 股航运龙头，受益于美线抢运行情，预计 2025 年利润弹 性增加 70 亿美元，总规模可达 300 亿美元，利润弹性表现显著。 • 短期美国订单需求释放将强劲支撑油轮和散货运输，油轮运输基本面稳健 向好，OPEC 增产亦带来更多原材料供应，下半年油运和化工品航运市场 预计将明显改善。 • 散货运输市场短期内预计需求改善，相关企业如北交所国众、A 股海外发 展及海航科技等值得关注。 • 国内沿海港口通过转口贸易等方式，总体吞吐量未明显下滑，验证了港口 作为供应链枢纽的重要性及业绩稳定性，可关注京北方枢纽港青岛等。 • 集装箱运输支线公司（如锦江航运、海丰国际、德翔海运）以及业务综合 性的招商轮船等公 ...