美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 根据隔夜指数掉期显示，美联储将在6月前下调基准利率任期结束仅一个月后），并在今年总计进行两 到三次25个基点的降息。投资者正猜测，特朗普总统提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什尽管有着鹰派名 声，但仍会倾向于更低的利率。西太平洋银行金融市场策略主管Martin Whetton表示："尽管曲线出现了 相当程度的平行移动，但疲软的就业信息给前端收益率带来了更多的下行风险。但由于美国财政部借款 咨询委员会本周早些时候的评论暗示，供应增加的时间点可能早于预期的11月，曲线因此变得更加陡 峭。" 2月6日，由于降息以及对持续通胀和财政赤字的担忧，美国国债收益率曲线正处于四年多来的最陡峭水 平附近。10年期国债相对于2年期国债的额外收益率在周四扩大至高达73.7个基点，仅略低于4月份触及 的73.8个基点的峰值，而该峰值是2022年1月以来的最高水平。周四利差扩大，原因是美国就业市场疲 软的迹象促使交易员增加了对美联储今年放宽货币政策的押注。 ...

美债收益率曲线连续第二个交易日走陡，主要受美元走弱和原油价格走强推动，这两者均提振了通胀预 期。2Y/10Y美债收益率利差一度扩大至67.6个基点，高于周二尾盘的66.6个基点。收益率曲线呈现出典 型的"熊市陡峭化"特征，即在投资者计入通胀重新加速风险上升的情况下，长期收益率的上升速度快于 短期。法巴银行美国利率策略主管古尼特·丁格拉表示："美元走弱时期通常会看到长端对通胀风险更加 敏感。因此，通常情况下，美元和美债这两者往往成为货币政策与财政政策组合的'压力释放阀'。如果 财政与货币政策的组合暗示美元将继续走弱，那么我认为长端收益率上行算是符合教科书式的反应。" 来源:金融界AI电报 ...

Group 1 - The core expectation is that the Federal Reserve may only lower interest rates twice in the next two years, despite President Trump's upcoming appointment of a new Fed chair [1][6] - The average expectation among respondents is for two rate cuts of 25 basis points each this year, bringing the target range for the federal funds rate down to 3%–3.25% [1][6] - Trump's pressure on the Fed to lower rates significantly is noted, with his desire for rates to be among the lowest globally, aiming for a rate of 1% in a context of approximately 2% inflation [1][6] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly dropped to its lowest level since May 2014, impacting market confidence in the labor market and growth prospects [2][7] - The index fell from a revised 94.2 to 84.5, marking a significant decline and below all economists' forecasts [2][7] - The drop in consumer confidence is seen as a key driver in reversing recent trends in the bond market, with expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed being reinforced [2][7] Group 3 - Gold prices surged to a new historical high, trading around 5260, supported by a weak dollar and heightened risk aversion due to trade tensions [3][8] - The dollar index is nearing a four-year low, influenced by Trump's comments on the dollar and concerns over a potential government shutdown [3][8] Group 4 - The USD/JPY pair fell significantly, reaching a 13-week low around 152.70, driven by trade tensions and concerns over the Fed's independence [4][9] - The USD/CAD pair also declined, hitting a six-month low around 1.3590, influenced by multiple negative factors including rising oil prices [5][10]

近几个月来，美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选一直是华尔街讨论的人们话题。 随着鲍威尔任期即将在5月结束，美国总统特朗普预计也即将做出关于其继任人选的决定。 而沃尔夫研究公司（Wolfe Research）表示， 有一个时间窗口尤为引人关注——那就是本周 美联储决议公布期间 。 特朗普本周即将公布决定？ 据该公司分析师斯蒂芬妮·罗特（Stephanie Roth）称，本周有一个"最有可能宣布结果的90分钟窗口"，就是在北京时间周四凌晨，美联储 宣布1月联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）决议期间。 不同人选将带来不同市场影响 沃尔夫研究公司还对主要候选人的市场反应进行了评估。该公司认为，市场认为里克·里德（Rick Rieder）和凯文·哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）"相对温和，而沃勒和沃什则更为激进。" 沃尔夫研究公司表示，考虑到美联储本周很大概率不会降息，特朗普很有可能有意让市场"将注意力从没有降息的美联储身上转移开"，从而 支撑美股市场。 如果是这样，那么在美联储公布决议前后，宣布美联储主席继任人选，就会是一个合理的选择。 罗特写道，即便特朗普没有在美联储公布决议期间宣布其人选决定，这一宣布"可能最早在本周进行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may have further rate cuts in 2026, with risks of rates dropping below current market expectations, potentially leading to a steepening yield curve if the economy avoids a full recession [2][6]. Economic and Monetary Policy - Despite a lack of recent government economic reports, there is substantial data indicating economic weakness without entering a recession. The market generally expects real growth in 2026 to be slightly below 2%, with consumer prices rising by 2.9%, partly due to tariff transmission effects [6]. - Bloomberg's economic research aligns with market inflation expectations but is more optimistic about growth. If actual growth is slightly lower than expected, nominal GDP growth could be around 4.8%, close to the 30-year average of 4.7%, suggesting long-term rates may struggle to stay below 4% if economic growth and/or inflation slow more than anticipated [6]. Yield Curve and Interest Rates - The current pricing of the U.S. Treasury yield curve indicates a mild steepening over the next year, but the potential for a more pronounced steepening exists, with the 2-year/10-year spread possibly widening to over 100 basis points by the end of 2026. The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the benchmark rate below 3% [8][10]. - The "slow easing" camp is likely to become mainstream, with the median dot plot from the Federal Reserve potentially indicating R* close to 84 basis points [10]. Market Dynamics - The volatility in the overnight financing market tools may be more pronounced than in the past 15 years due to the disappearance of the "excess reserves" mechanism. This tightening of financing market funds is not unexpected for those who participated in these markets before the 2007-2009 financial crisis [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to expand its balance sheet and resume purchasing short-term Treasury securities aims to ensure that the banking system has "ample" reserves, with limited impact on the longer end of the yield curve [1] Group 1 - Eric Winograd, Chief U.S. Economist at AllianceBernstein, indicates that the initial target for Treasury purchases will be approximately $40 billion per month [1] - The impact of this decision is expected to be confined to the money market and the front end of the yield curve [1] - Some market participants had anticipated that the Federal Reserve might delay this operation until January of the following year [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has reduced interest rates by 25 basis points, acknowledging a cooling labor market, but internal divisions are evident, with a more hawkish stance than market expectations for 2026 [2][3] - The Philippine economy is weakening, with expectations of two additional rate cuts of 25 basis points each, bringing the policy rate down to 4.00% by the end of 2026 [2] - The Swiss National Bank is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0%, with a trade agreement easing pressure for rate cuts, while inflation is anticipated to rise moderately [2][3] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley predicts only a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve in 2026, significantly lower than the market's expectation of 50 basis points, depending on labor market trends [3] - Allianz Investment Management highlights that the current Federal Reserve chair, Powell, may have executed his last rate cut, with significant progress made in combating inflation, but challenges remain for the next chair [3] - Apollo's CEO states that the U.S. economy does not require further rate cuts, citing structural factors that may elevate long-term inflation risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off of long-term U.S. Treasuries indicates that if Trump's tariff policy is rejected, fiscal issues will become the primary concern for investors due to fears of rising debt levels exacerbating budget deficits [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The long end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has shown the most volatility, reflecting concerns about fiscal conditions that are as significant as worries regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] - Market reactions on Wednesday were more subdued compared to the initial introduction of tariffs earlier this year, as investors anticipate the government may introduce alternative tariffs [1] Group 2: Fiscal Implications - The loss of tariff revenue will reignite concerns over budget deficits, limiting the scale of fiscal stimulus and making it unlikely to fully offset revenue losses [1] - Although the direct impact of tariffs on inflation is limited, a recent slight decrease in inflation swap rates suggests that investors believe the cancellation of tariff policies could still have a dampening effect on inflation [1]

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - UBS suggests that if the US Supreme Court rules Trump's tariff policy illegal, it could force the government to refund approximately $140 billion in taxes, which is 7.9% of the projected federal budget deficit for FY2025. This could lead to a structural low-tariff trade environment, enhancing household purchasing power and easing inflationary pressures, thus providing the Federal Reserve with more room for rate cuts [1] - Barclays indicates that if repo rates remain above the effective federal funds rate target range for several weeks, the Federal Reserve may need to intervene by increasing reserves through more repo lending or direct purchases of Treasury securities [2] - Jefferies maintains a low allocation stance on US Treasuries, highlighting that the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs could significantly impact market volatility and the yield curve [2] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Danske Bank anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, with a close vote of 5-4. The cooling labor market is noted, but not at a concerning pace. Key votes from the Governor and Deputy Governor will be crucial [3] - Analysts from London Capital Group expect the Bank of England to keep the base rate at 4.0% pending details from the upcoming budget announcement, as uncertainty in new policy measures is suppressing economic activity [4] - Berenberg economists predict that potential tax increases in the UK budget could pave the way for further rate cuts next year, with at least two cuts of 25 basis points to 3.50% anticipated if fiscal tightening is implemented [4] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Data - Eurozone retail sales for September fell short of expectations, primarily due to a 0.2% decline in non-food sales, while food sales remained stable. This lagging data is not expected to influence the European Central Bank's policy outlook [5]

2年期与10年期美债收益率曲线达到7月中旬以来最陡水平。对利率敏感度更高的短端收益率下滑，反映市场对美联储独立性担忧以及仍在升温的降息预期。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普签署文件解除美联储理事库克的职务，即时生效。 https://t.co/Yl5kfBd6XA ...