本文节选自彭博终端NSNT6XAM1KIJH9L 。如您还不是终端用户，您可在文末" 阅读原文 "联系我们预约产品演示。 彭博行业研究 美国利率 2026年展望 彭博行业研究观点： 美联储在2026年仍有进一步降息的可能。在我们看来，风险在于利率可能被降至低于市场当前 预期的水平。这最初将导致收益率曲线出现牛陡行情。如果经济得以避免出现全面衰退，市场 可能会消化美联储在2027年加息的可能性，从而在2026年下半年引发收益率曲线出现熊陡行 情。鉴于当前发行计划所筹集的净债务规模，2026年全年美国国债拍卖规模可能保持稳定。美 联储到2026年年中或开始进行以管理准备金为目的的国债购买。 长按或扫描二维码 阅读完整报告 即使缺少最新的政府发布的经济报告，我们认为仍有大量数据表明经济疲弱，不过尚未陷入衰退。 市场普遍预期2026年实际增长将略低于2%，消费者价格全年上涨2.9%—部分受关税传导效应的影 响。彭博经济研究的通胀预期与市场普遍预期一致，但对增长的预期更为乐观。 对于美债市场的回报，我们认为风险在于经济的实际增速可能会略低于上述预期。如果这些预期实 现，意味着名义GDP增长约4.8%，接近过去30年的平 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to expand its balance sheet and resume purchasing short-term Treasury securities aims to ensure that the banking system has "ample" reserves, with limited impact on the longer end of the yield curve [1] Group 1 - Eric Winograd, Chief U.S. Economist at AllianceBernstein, indicates that the initial target for Treasury purchases will be approximately $40 billion per month [1] - The impact of this decision is expected to be confined to the money market and the front end of the yield curve [1] - Some market participants had anticipated that the Federal Reserve might delay this operation until January of the following year [1]

•三菱日联：美联储政策分歧扩大，2026年下半年领导层更迭恐加剧前景不确定性 转自：新华财经 •凯投宏观经济学家称，菲律宾经济连续走弱，进一步降息恐难避免。预计菲律宾央行将在未来实施两 次各25个基点的降息，到2026年底将政策利率降至4.00%。 •Investinglive分析师预计，瑞士央行将维持利率在0%不变，尽管通胀低于预期，但美瑞贸易协议缓解了 降息压力。美瑞关税协议自11月14日起生效，美国对瑞士商品关税从39%降至15%，有望支撑瑞士经济 增长前景。瑞士央行或小幅下调2026年通胀预测，但行长施莱格尔料重申负利率门槛极高，并强调通胀 将温和回升。 •鲍尔温财富管理公司指出，美联储连续第三次降息表明其重心已从单纯控通胀转向综合风险管理。美 联储担忧政策滞后、地缘政治及信贷收紧对经济的拖累，正谨慎引导软着陆。预计未来降息举措将更为 循序渐进，且严格以数据为支撑。 •摩根大通银行预计，美联储2026年仅再降息25个基点，远低于市场预期的50个基点。降息幅度将取决 于劳动力市场走势，而该行认为就业市场将趋于稳定或改善。若就业持续稳健，美联储实际降息力度可 能比当前市场定价更为保守。 •凯投宏观：菲律宾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sell-off of long-term U.S. Treasuries indicates that if Trump's tariff policy is rejected, fiscal issues will become the primary concern for investors due to fears of rising debt levels exacerbating budget deficits [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The long end of the U.S. Treasury yield curve has shown the most volatility, reflecting concerns about fiscal conditions that are as significant as worries regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate path [1] - Market reactions on Wednesday were more subdued compared to the initial introduction of tariffs earlier this year, as investors anticipate the government may introduce alternative tariffs [1] Group 2: Fiscal Implications - The loss of tariff revenue will reignite concerns over budget deficits, limiting the scale of fiscal stimulus and making it unlikely to fully offset revenue losses [1] - Although the direct impact of tariffs on inflation is limited, a recent slight decrease in inflation swap rates suggests that investors believe the cancellation of tariff policies could still have a dampening effect on inflation [1]

Group 1: US Economic Outlook - UBS suggests that if the US Supreme Court rules Trump's tariff policy illegal, it could force the government to refund approximately $140 billion in taxes, which is 7.9% of the projected federal budget deficit for FY2025. This could lead to a structural low-tariff trade environment, enhancing household purchasing power and easing inflationary pressures, thus providing the Federal Reserve with more room for rate cuts [1] - Barclays indicates that if repo rates remain above the effective federal funds rate target range for several weeks, the Federal Reserve may need to intervene by increasing reserves through more repo lending or direct purchases of Treasury securities [2] - Jefferies maintains a low allocation stance on US Treasuries, highlighting that the Supreme Court's decision on tariffs could significantly impact market volatility and the yield curve [2] Group 2: UK Economic Outlook - Danske Bank anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England, with a close vote of 5-4. The cooling labor market is noted, but not at a concerning pace. Key votes from the Governor and Deputy Governor will be crucial [3] - Analysts from London Capital Group expect the Bank of England to keep the base rate at 4.0% pending details from the upcoming budget announcement, as uncertainty in new policy measures is suppressing economic activity [4] - Berenberg economists predict that potential tax increases in the UK budget could pave the way for further rate cuts next year, with at least two cuts of 25 basis points to 3.50% anticipated if fiscal tightening is implemented [4] Group 3: Eurozone Economic Data - Eurozone retail sales for September fell short of expectations, primarily due to a 0.2% decline in non-food sales, while food sales remained stable. This lagging data is not expected to influence the European Central Bank's policy outlook [5]

2年期与10年期美债收益率曲线达到7月中旬以来最陡水平。对利率敏感度更高的短端收益率下滑，反映市场对美联储独立性担忧以及仍在升温的降息预期。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普签署文件解除美联储理事库克的职务，即时生效。 https://t.co/Yl5kfBd6XA ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, mentioned that there are 10 to 11 candidates being considered for the successor to the Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, whose term ends in May next year [1] - The list includes three previously unannounced candidates: David Zervos, Larry Lindsey, and Rick Rieder, alongside eight confirmed candidates including Vice Chair Bowman and Governor Waller [1] - The selection process involves Becerra meeting all candidates to narrow down the list before presenting it to President Trump, indicating that the decision is not imminent and may take considerable time [1] Group 2 - Becerra stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rates should be 150-175 basis points lower than current levels, suggesting a potential for a 50 basis point cut starting in September [2] - Analysts believe the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in September is nearly zero, requiring a weak non-farm payroll report for such a move [2] - Becerra also indicated that the Federal Reserve does not need to reimplement large-scale asset purchases (QE) and is supplementing fiscal cash through short-term Treasury bill issuance [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing pressure from President Trump on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, particularly through the nomination of a "shadow chairman" and scrutiny of the Fed's renovation project, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][2][4]. Group 1: Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - President Trump has intensified his criticism of Powell and is exploring ways to exert more control over the Federal Reserve, including the potential removal of the "60-vote rule" in the Senate [1][3][4]. - Trump's visit to the Federal Reserve and focus on the renovation project may signal a push for more regulatory oversight and reform of the Fed's operations [2][4]. - The administration's narrative suggests that previous interest rate decisions by the Fed were politically motivated, aiming to assist Democratic candidates [2][4]. Group 2: Potential Reforms and Implications - If Trump successfully abolishes the "60-vote rule," it could allow for significant changes in how the Federal Reserve operates, including altering the composition of its board and potentially undermining its independence [3][4]. - Historical precedents show that presidential interference in Fed policy has occurred before, but Trump's approach is unprecedented in its intensity and frequency [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investor Strategies - Investors are advised to prepare for potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of a maximum of 50 basis points before Powell's departure, followed by more significant cuts starting in June [9]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank presents trading opportunities, particularly as a more dovish Fed could lead to a decline in the dollar's value [9]. - The uncertainty surrounding the new Fed chair's stance could lead to volatility in U.S. equity markets, depending on whether the new chair maintains the Fed's independence or succumbs to political pressures [9].

Group 1 - The market reacted negatively to reports that President Trump was considering replacing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with declines in U.S. stocks, the dollar, and long-term Treasury bonds, while short-term bonds rose due to increased rate cut expectations [1] - After Trump's statement denying any plans to replace Powell, the market showed signs of recovery, but the initial reaction indicated significant uncertainty and concern among investors [1] - Key data reflected market panic, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping by 8 basis points and the ten-year yield falling by 5 basis points, while the Bloomberg dollar spot index shifted from a 0.2% gain to a 0.7% loss [1] Group 2 - Analysts believe that replacing Powell would not be a "magic bullet" for economic issues, highlighting the importance of the successor's influence on the Federal Reserve's decision-making [4] - Predictions suggest that if Powell were to be replaced, the trade-weighted dollar could drop by 3%-4% within 24 hours, and the fixed income market could see a sell-off of 30-40 basis points [4] - Concerns were raised about the precedent set by threatening to dismiss the Federal Reserve Chairman, indicating a dangerous signal of breaking norms to achieve objectives [4] Group 3 - Trump's ongoing criticism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies and recent comments about the rising costs of renovations at the Fed's headquarters suggest potential justifications for his desire to remove Powell [4] - Market confidence could decline, leading to more rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and increased term premiums if Powell's replacement were to occur [4] - Experienced traders familiar with "Trump market dynamics" view the situation as a typical day in the market, indicating a level of desensitization to such political maneuvers [4][5]

Group 1 - The article discusses concerns regarding President Trump's calls for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to resign, which is prompting investors to prepare for rising inflation risks [1][2] - Investors are pricing in potential future inflation pressures, as indicated by the rise in the 5-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) breakeven inflation rate to 2.476%, the highest in three months [1] - The White House is investigating potential cost overruns on the Federal Reserve's historic headquarters renovation, raising fears that Trump may seek to remove Powell under the guise of "for cause" dismissal [1] Group 2 - Concerns are growing that Trump's criticism of Powell could undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to increased volatility in financial asset prices [2] - Analysts warn that if the market perceives the Fed's independence is compromised, it could result in a sell-off of U.S. Treasuries, causing long-term bond yields to rise relative to short-term yields [2] - The Fed's recent meeting minutes indicate that most policymakers remain cautious about inflation risks stemming from Trump's tariffs, with little support for a rate cut in the upcoming meeting [2] Group 3 - Trump has stated that Powell's resignation "would be a good thing," despite the fact that the president cannot dismiss the Fed chair solely for policy disagreements [3] - In the current scenario, short-term yields may decrease due to faster rate cuts by the Fed, but long-term yields are likely to rise due to persistent inflation expectations and declining institutional trust [3]