Group 1: Market Analysis - The "14th Five-Year Plan" main goals were released, boosting market sentiment. The goals include significant achievements in high-quality development, increased self-reliance in technology, breakthroughs in deepening reforms, enhanced social civilization, improved quality of life, major progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthened national security. By 2035, the aim is for China's economic, technological, defense, and comprehensive national strength to significantly rise, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries. This suggests an average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, positively impacting current market sentiment and economic expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%. The October S&P Manufacturing PMI recorded 52.2, better than the previous 52. The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential halt in balance sheet contraction in the coming months, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy and a relatively smooth path for easing [2] Group 3: Commodity Sector Analysis - The commodity market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black metal sector is under pressure from downstream demand expectations, while the non-ferrous sector is supported by long-term supply constraints and recent global easing expectations. The energy sector is viewed with a medium-term supply surplus outlook, as OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The U.S. has also imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, urging an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, caustic soda, and urea is noteworthy. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, while precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after significant fluctuations, awaiting new signals for movement [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] Core Viewpoints - The eurozone's economic data is weak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the Middle East situation [2] - China's May economic data was mixed, with weak investment and export, and only consumption showing resilience. Fiscal policy may be further strengthened [3] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US retail sales declined in May. The eurozone's composite PMI dropped [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, which may lead to significant changes in the prices of crude oil, commodities, global stock indices, and precious metals [5] - Commodities are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may have price increases. Oil prices are sensitive to Middle East geopolitical events, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's May investment data was weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The government may increase fiscal support. The US and China held a trade negotiation meeting, and the US tariff policy may be flexible. South Korea and Japan's leaders will not attend the NATO summit [3] - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate. The US retail sales declined in May, and the eurozone's composite PMI dropped. The ECB has limited room for interest rate cuts [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified since June 13, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. Russia supports Iran, and the US has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran may close the Hormuz Strait. If the conflict spreads, it will impact global markets [5] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, industrial products may be affected by the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may see price increases. Oil supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - term, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] To - do News - Multiple events related to the Iran - Israel conflict on June 23, including military strikes, statements from various countries, and discussions in international organizations. China, Russia, and Pakistan proposed a UN Security Council resolution draft [8]