1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Iran situation's tail - risk has risen sharply, mainly affecting crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors. Oil price increases have also driven up oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - During the Two Sessions, the stock and commodity markets face pressure, but the stock index rebounds after the sessions. The Chinese government sets economic growth at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan [2]. - China's January - February foreign trade data exceeded expectations, driven by the Spring Festival base effect and global external demand recovery. However, geopolitical risks may affect March data [2]. - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. Different commodity sectors have different focuses [3]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is advisable to buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The US and Israel carried out an air strike on Iran on February 28, followed by a large - scale counter - attack from Iran. The conflict has exceeded the initial 4 - 5 - day expectation, and the US may increase troops. The conflict has damaged energy and production facilities in the Middle East, disrupted the supply chain, and blocked the Strait of Hormuz [1]. - Some Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries have cut production. The new supreme leader of Iran is Mujtaba Khamenei. Trump said the war in Iran "won't end this week" but "will end soon" [1]. Domestic and International News - Iran's Foreign Minister Alaqchi said Iran's new supreme leader won't consider dialogue or negotiation with the US. Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Iran won't trust US commitments [6]. - Trump said there may be conditional negotiations with Iran but expressed dissatisfaction with Iran's new supreme leader [6]. - China's February exports and imports in US dollars increased by 39.6% and 13.8% respectively, with a trade surplus of $909.8 billion. In RMB, exports and imports increased by 36.1% and 10.9% respectively, with a trade surplus of 6375.5 billion yuan [6]. Macro - economic Data - Due to the government shutdown, the US Q4 2025 GDP growth rate was 1.4%, lower than the expected 2.5%. The US February non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased, and rising oil prices limit the space for interest rate cuts [2]. - China's January social financing had a good start. China's February official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. February CPI rose to 1.3%, core CPI rose 1.8%, and PPI decline narrowed to 0.9% [2]. - China's January - February exports in US dollars increased by 21.8%, imports by 19.8%. February single - month exports increased by 39.6%. Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Africa increased by 27.8%, 29.4%, and 49.9% respectively. High - tech and electromechanical products were the main drivers. Imported commodities showed differentiation [2]. Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices drive commodity fluctuations. The non - ferrous metals, precious metals are inversely related to oil prices. Energy sector needs to watch the Iran situation and "sell - the - fact" risks. Oil price increases drive oil - chemical products and oilseeds. The black sector focuses on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [3]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, buy on dips for stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [4]

Group 1: Market Analysis - The "14th Five-Year Plan" main goals were released, boosting market sentiment. The goals include significant achievements in high-quality development, increased self-reliance in technology, breakthroughs in deepening reforms, enhanced social civilization, improved quality of life, major progress in building a beautiful China, and strengthened national security. By 2035, the aim is for China's economic, technological, defense, and comprehensive national strength to significantly rise, with per capita GDP reaching the level of moderately developed countries. This suggests an average GDP growth rate of around 5% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, positively impacting current market sentiment and economic expectations [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The U.S. September CPI rose by 3% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%. The October S&P Manufacturing PMI recorded 52.2, better than the previous 52. The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated a potential halt in balance sheet contraction in the coming months, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy and a relatively smooth path for easing [2] Group 3: Commodity Sector Analysis - The commodity market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with high volatility in previously bullish sectors. The black metal sector is under pressure from downstream demand expectations, while the non-ferrous sector is supported by long-term supply constraints and recent global easing expectations. The energy sector is viewed with a medium-term supply surplus outlook, as OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The U.S. has also imposed sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, urging an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine. In the chemical sector, the "anti-involution" potential of methanol, caustic soda, and urea is noteworthy. Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations, while precious metals may enter a consolidation phase after significant fluctuations, awaiting new signals for movement [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] Core Viewpoints - The eurozone's economic data is weak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the Middle East situation [2] - China's May economic data was mixed, with weak investment and export, and only consumption showing resilience. Fiscal policy may be further strengthened [3] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US retail sales declined in May. The eurozone's composite PMI dropped [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, which may lead to significant changes in the prices of crude oil, commodities, global stock indices, and precious metals [5] - Commodities are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may have price increases. Oil prices are sensitive to Middle East geopolitical events, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's May investment data was weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The government may increase fiscal support. The US and China held a trade negotiation meeting, and the US tariff policy may be flexible. South Korea and Japan's leaders will not attend the NATO summit [3] - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate. The US retail sales declined in May, and the eurozone's composite PMI dropped. The ECB has limited room for interest rate cuts [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified since June 13, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. Russia supports Iran, and the US has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran may close the Hormuz Strait. If the conflict spreads, it will impact global markets [5] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, industrial products may be affected by the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may see price increases. Oil supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - term, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] To - do News - Multiple events related to the Iran - Israel conflict on June 23, including military strikes, statements from various countries, and discussions in international organizations. China, Russia, and Pakistan proposed a UN Security Council resolution draft [8]