Group 1 - Global trade and economic growth are expected to decline due to multiple uncertainties, with HSBC forecasting a slowdown in global goods and services trade growth to 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026, alongside economic growth rates of 2.5% and 2.3% respectively [1] - The "import rush" effect in the US has led to a contraction in economic growth, and weakening data on employment and real wage growth may pressure private consumption spending [2] - Asian economies are facing export and manufacturing investment pressures, with potential for significant slowdown in export growth if US tariffs are reinstated, while expansionary macro policies may provide some buffer [3] Group 2 - US core inflation is expected to remain sticky, influenced by delayed tariff effects and reduced immigration, with forecasts indicating inflation will stay above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until the end of 2026 [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations is causing businesses to delay investment decisions, which could lead to a series of economic repercussions [3] - The reliance on private consumption recovery is becoming increasingly important for economic growth in Asia as both exports and investments face challenges [3]

Group 1 - Global trade growth is expected to slow down, with a projected increase of only 1.8% in 2025, while global economic growth may decelerate to 2.5% [1] - China's economy remains resilient, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5% in the first half of 2025, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies [3] - The increase in tariffs is anticipated to have a negative impact on trade in the short term, leading to a restructuring of industrial chains and changes in trade and investment flows in the long term [4] Group 2 - China's position as the largest exporter is maintained, with a projected 14.6% share of global exports in 2024, while the U.S. remains the largest importer with a 13.6% share [4] - The largest export destination for China has shifted from the U.S. to ASEAN, and Mexico has become the largest source of imports for the U.S. [4] - Chinese manufacturing is undergoing a value chain upgrade, with an increasing proportion of capital goods and intermediate goods in exports, indicating a trend towards higher value-added production [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the global economy may face increased downward pressure, with expected growth slowing to 2.5% by 2025 [1] - Export and investment in the Asian region are under pressure, but expansionary macro policies can help mitigate the impact [1] - China's economy remains resilient, supported by stable macro policies that effectively bolster domestic demand growth [1] Group 2 - The chief economist for HSBC Global Investment Research in Greater China, Liu Jing, noted that China's manufacturing sector is undergoing a process of upgrading its value chain [1] - There is a significant increase in the proportion of capital goods and intermediate goods in China's export products, with added value from China in goods exported to the U.S. by countries like Mexico and Vietnam also rising [1] - Despite the uncertainty regarding the direction of global supply chain restructuring, a clear trend is emerging where Chinese manufacturing continues to extend towards both ends of the "smile curve," with Chinese companies actively seeking higher added value and deeper integration into the global supply chain [1]

FICC日报 | 2025-06-24 欧元区经济数据疲软，关注中东局势后续进展 市场分析 国内5月经济仍待夯实。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或将拖累 财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱，前期需 求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，6月20日新华社发布后续以旧换新国补将继续下达。面 对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码的可能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议 在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解 决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。关于7月9日到期的关税延后政策，6月12日特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间 表存在灵活性。欧盟也表示预计延期谈判。在美国轰炸伊朗核设施后，韩国总统李在明和日本首相石破茂将不会 参加于24日至25日在荷兰海牙举行的北约峰会。 美联储按兵不动，维持联邦基金利率目标区间4.25%-4.50%不变，符合市场预期。决议声明略掉关于失业率和通胀 风险更高的措辞，今年利率预测中位值不变、仍预计 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.09」 硅锰市场周报 锰矿库存大幅下降，弱现实下基差收敛 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，中国物流与采购联合会（5月6日）公布4月份全球制造业采购经理指数。指数连续两个月运行在50%以下的收缩区 间，全球经济下行压力有所加大；国务院副总理何立峰作为中美经贸中方牵头人，将于5月9日至12日访瑞期间，与美方牵头人 美国财政部长贝森特举行会谈。目前来看，美国与部分国家已经达成协议，随着国务院副总理何立峰5月9日至12日与美方代表 开启会谈，后续关税冲突或有新的突破和进展，关注双方会谈结果对市场情绪的影响。 2. 海外方面，欧盟首席谈判代表称，欧盟可能提议购买560亿美元的美国产品以结束贸易战；美国海关和边境保护局证实，加拿 大和墨西哥制造的汽车零部件免于25%的关税，该关税于5月3日生效；欧盟公布终止进口俄能源计划，20 ...

Core Viewpoint - In April, China's commodity price index stood at 109.9 points, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 3.1%, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies exacerbating global economic downturn concerns and the transmission effects of falling international commodity prices [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Index Performance - China's commodity price index experienced a smaller month-on-month decline compared to Western countries, with the CRB index down by 6.6% and the S&P GSCI index down by 8.8%, indicating the resilience and advantages of China's commodity market in withstanding external shocks [1] - As of April 30, most commodity prices and indices rebounded from their monthly lows, driven by the positive sentiment from the Central Political Bureau meeting, suggesting a stable overall market expectation among enterprises [1] Group 2: Future Market Outlook - The foundation for a continued stable and positive operation of China's commodity market is supported by the accelerated rollout of national economic stabilization policies and the steady release of domestic demand [1]