Group 1 - Global trade and economic growth are expected to decline due to multiple uncertainties, with HSBC forecasting a slowdown in global goods and services trade growth to 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026, alongside economic growth rates of 2.5% and 2.3% respectively [1] - The "import rush" effect in the US has led to a contraction in economic growth, and weakening data on employment and real wage growth may pressure private consumption spending [2] - Asian economies are facing export and manufacturing investment pressures, with potential for significant slowdown in export growth if US tariffs are reinstated, while expansionary macro policies may provide some buffer [3] Group 2 - US core inflation is expected to remain sticky, influenced by delayed tariff effects and reduced immigration, with forecasts indicating inflation will stay above the Federal Reserve's 2% target until the end of 2026 [2] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations is causing businesses to delay investment decisions, which could lead to a series of economic repercussions [3] - The reliance on private consumption recovery is becoming increasingly important for economic growth in Asia as both exports and investments face challenges [3]

Group 1 - Global trade growth is expected to slow down, with a projected increase of only 1.8% in 2025, while global economic growth may decelerate to 2.5% [1] - China's economy remains resilient, with GDP growth expected to exceed 5% in the first half of 2025, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies [3] - The increase in tariffs is anticipated to have a negative impact on trade in the short term, leading to a restructuring of industrial chains and changes in trade and investment flows in the long term [4] Group 2 - China's position as the largest exporter is maintained, with a projected 14.6% share of global exports in 2024, while the U.S. remains the largest importer with a 13.6% share [4] - The largest export destination for China has shifted from the U.S. to ASEAN, and Mexico has become the largest source of imports for the U.S. [4] - Chinese manufacturing is undergoing a value chain upgrade, with an increasing proportion of capital goods and intermediate goods in exports, indicating a trend towards higher value-added production [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the global economy may face increased downward pressure, with expected growth slowing to 2.5% by 2025 [1] - Export and investment in the Asian region are under pressure, but expansionary macro policies can help mitigate the impact [1] - China's economy remains resilient, supported by stable macro policies that effectively bolster domestic demand growth [1] Group 2 - The chief economist for HSBC Global Investment Research in Greater China, Liu Jing, noted that China's manufacturing sector is undergoing a process of upgrading its value chain [1] - There is a significant increase in the proportion of capital goods and intermediate goods in China's export products, with added value from China in goods exported to the U.S. by countries like Mexico and Vietnam also rising [1] - Despite the uncertainty regarding the direction of global supply chain restructuring, a clear trend is emerging where Chinese manufacturing continues to extend towards both ends of the "smile curve," with Chinese companies actively seeking higher added value and deeper integration into the global supply chain [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] Core Viewpoints - The eurozone's economic data is weak, and attention should be paid to the subsequent development of the Middle East situation [2] - China's May economic data was mixed, with weak investment and export, and only consumption showing resilience. Fiscal policy may be further strengthened [3] - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged, and the US retail sales declined in May. The eurozone's composite PMI dropped [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified, which may lead to significant changes in the prices of crude oil, commodities, global stock indices, and precious metals [5] - Commodities are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts. For industrial products, beware of the emotional impact from the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may have price increases. Oil prices are sensitive to Middle East geopolitical events, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's May investment data was weak, especially in the real estate sector, which may drag down fiscal revenue and the real estate chain. Exports were also under pressure, while consumption showed resilience. The government may increase fiscal support. The US and China held a trade negotiation meeting, and the US tariff policy may be flexible. South Korea and Japan's leaders will not attend the NATO summit [3] - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate. The US retail sales declined in May, and the eurozone's composite PMI dropped. The ECB has limited room for interest rate cuts [4] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has intensified since June 13, with both sides suffering heavy casualties. Russia supports Iran, and the US has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran may close the Hormuz Strait. If the conflict spreads, it will impact global markets [5] Commodity Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, industrial products may be affected by the US stock market adjustment, while agricultural products may see price increases. Oil supply is expected to be abundant in the medium - term, and gold can be considered for low - level allocation [6] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification, and gold is recommended for low - level allocation [7] To - do News - Multiple events related to the Iran - Israel conflict on June 23, including military strikes, statements from various countries, and discussions in international organizations. China, Russia, and Pakistan proposed a UN Security Council resolution draft [8]

本文来自微信公众号：新周刊 （ID：new-weekly），作者：段志飞，编辑：宋爽，原文标题：《心理 学家陈海贤：在这个时代，找到自己的根基》，题图来自：《美食、祈祷和恋爱》 在进入"试着休息"这个话题之前，我与陈海贤对于"休息"的理解并不在同一个层面。作为一个当代年轻 人，对于我来说，似乎只有工作之余是我唯一能想到需要休息的时候，但在陈海贤看来，"不得不做"的 工作，并非痛苦的源泉。为了自洽，我只好暗自认领了自己的肤浅。 大多数年轻人是不太爱听人讲大道理的，除非"听"和"讲"的位置调换过来；他们也表示对于心灵鸡汤早 就脱敏，但其实这也取决于话是从谁的嘴里说出来的。只不过有的鸡汤不咸不淡，而有的则经过了审美 的包装，被调配得更合口味了。 最近一段时间，经常听到身边越来越多的朋友提到自己"需要看心理医生"。其实能够想象，从少年到青 年，从校园到社会，我们似乎被卷入了一个庞大的机器，成为其中的一枚齿轮，除了要面对煎熬的工 作、总是轻易断掉的关系、一成不变却迷茫的生活以及那个始终不如意的自己以外，当外界环境的冲击 和变化与"我想要"并不匹配甚至矛盾的时候，我们该如何选择？这恐怕是当下每一个年轻人都想知道的 答案。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomically, the global manufacturing PMI has been in the contraction zone for two consecutive months, increasing global economic downward pressure. The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade talks may bring new breakthroughs in tariff conflicts, which could affect market sentiment. Operationally, silicon - manganese should be treated as a running market, with the sector under pressure and auxiliary materials stopping their decline, while the significant reduction in manganese ore port inventory provides cost support [6]. - Overseas, the EU may propose to buy $56 billion worth of US products to end the trade war, certain auto parts from Canada and Mexico are exempt from a 25% tariff, and the EU plans to stop importing Russian energy by 2027 [6]. - In terms of supply and demand, supply - side production is at a loss, dampening production enthusiasm. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 9.47% this period, but the arrival volume of manganese ore in May is expected to increase. Downstream hot - metal production shows signs of peaking and falling, and price fluctuations may intensify after the decline in demand. The spot production profit in Inner Mongolia is - 230 yuan/ton, and - 410 yuan/ton in Ningxia. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' steel procurement in May [6]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - Macroeconomic aspect: The global manufacturing PMI in April was below 50% for two consecutive months, increasing global economic downward pressure. The Sino - US economic and trade talks from May 9 - 12 may bring new changes to tariff conflicts [6]. - Overseas aspect: The EU may buy $56 billion of US products, auto parts from Canada and Mexico are tariff - exempt, and the EU plans to stop importing Russian energy by 2027 [6]. - Supply - demand aspect: Supply - side production is unprofitable, with low production enthusiasm. Manganese ore port inventory decreased by 9.47% this period, but the arrival volume in May is expected to increase. Downstream hot - metal production may peak and fall. Inner Mongolia's spot production profit is - 230 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 410 yuan/ton. Steel mills' May steel procurement should be monitored [6]. - Technical aspect: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [6]. - Strategy suggestion: The sector is under pressure macroeconomically, while auxiliary materials stop falling. The significant reduction in manganese ore port inventory provides cost support. Silicon - manganese should be treated as a running market [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - As of May 9, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 635,300 lots, a net increase of 22,200 lots. The monthly spread was 68, a decrease of 10 [12]. - As of May 9, the manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 119,697, a decrease of 4,519. The price difference between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon main contracts was 276, an increase of 126 [16]. Spot Market - As of May 9, the average ex - factory price of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia was 5,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 [22]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation Supply and Inventory - This week (May 8), the weekly demand for silicon - manganese in five major steel grades (70%) was 125,861 tons, a decrease of 1.83% from last week. The national silicon - manganese production (99%) was 172,025 tons, a decrease of 5.90% from last week. The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 37.53%, a decrease of 3.21% from last week, and the daily average output was 24,575 tons, a decrease of 1,540 tons [26]. - As of May 8, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises (accounting for 79.77% of the national capacity) was 207,100 tons, an increase of 25,300 tons [29]. Upstream - As of May 8, the price of South African manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 32 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged from the previous period, and the price of Australian manganese ore was 40 yuan/ton - degree, an increase of 3 yuan/ton - degree [35]. - As of May 6, the electricity price for silicon - manganese and ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 0.41 yuan/kWh, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kWh, and in Inner Mongolia, it was 0.42 yuan/kWh, unchanged [35]. - As of April 25, 2025, the port inventory of imported manganese ore was 3.671 million tons, a decrease of 384,000 tons. The global shipment volume of South African manganese ore was 641,100 tons, an increase of 41.83% from last week and 30.91% from the same period last year. The global shipment volume of Gabonese manganese ore was 60,700 tons, a decrease of 61.04% from last week and 82.06% from the same period last year [40]. - As of May 9, the spot production cost in the northern region of silicon - manganese was 5,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was 6,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton, and in the southern region was - 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton [47]. Downstream - As of May 9, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4564 million tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from last week and 111,400 tons from the same period last year [53]. - On April 17, the silicon - manganese tender price of HBIS was 5,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan/ton from March, and the ferrosilicon tender price was 5,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton from March [53].

Core Viewpoint - In April, China's commodity price index stood at 109.9 points, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 3.1%, primarily due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies exacerbating global economic downturn concerns and the transmission effects of falling international commodity prices [1] Group 1: Commodity Price Index Performance - China's commodity price index experienced a smaller month-on-month decline compared to Western countries, with the CRB index down by 6.6% and the S&P GSCI index down by 8.8%, indicating the resilience and advantages of China's commodity market in withstanding external shocks [1] - As of April 30, most commodity prices and indices rebounded from their monthly lows, driven by the positive sentiment from the Central Political Bureau meeting, suggesting a stable overall market expectation among enterprises [1] Group 2: Future Market Outlook - The foundation for a continued stable and positive operation of China's commodity market is supported by the accelerated rollout of national economic stabilization policies and the steady release of domestic demand [1]