美国将公布最新 CPI 通胀数据。这份报告被誉为 "美联储决议前最关键数据"，市场正屏息以待 —— 若 数据超预期降温，可能彻底引爆市场对美联储激进降息的预期；反之，则可能扭转当前的乐观情绪。今 夜，注定是一个不眠之夜。 一、为何通胀数据如此重要？ 市场已提前进入 "降息定价模式"，但降息的幅度和时点完全取决于通胀的走向。今晚的 CPI 数据将直 接验证：当前市场的降息预期是过于乐观，还是恰如其分？ 当前市场预期：期货市场定价显示，交易员预计美联储今年可能降息 3-4 次（75-100 个基点），甚至开 始押注首次降息提前至 3 月。 风险点：若通胀黏性超预期，这些激进的降息预期将被彻底 "重置"，可能引发风险资产剧烈调整。 二、三种情景推演：数据如何决定市场命运？ 情景一：通胀显著降温（CPI 环比≤0.1%，核心 CPI≤0.2%） 逻辑：数据证明抗通胀最后一公里极其艰难，美联储将维持鹰派立场，推迟降息时点。 三、UNFX 策略视角：投资者如何应对波动？ 面对高风险事件，理性的应对策略远比预测数据更重要，可按以下三个阶段规划操作： 市场反应：激进降息预期成为主流。债券收益率大跌，美元走弱，黄金、美股（尤其 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a surge in bearish bets, with heightened focus on the upcoming employment report that may reinforce expectations for aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Expectations - A recent JPMorgan survey indicates a significant shift towards bearish positions, with the weekly change in bearish bets being the largest in nearly five years, as 30-year yields approach the 5% mark [1] - The market's sentiment has shifted from expecting dovish moves by the Fed to a more cautious outlook, with the upcoming employment report serving as a critical test for this sentiment [1][4] - If the employment data falls significantly below the expected 75,000 new jobs, it could provide justification for more aggressive rate cuts and pressure bearish investors to adjust their positions [1][4] Group 2: Interest Rate Dynamics - The two-year Treasury yield has dropped to its lowest level since May, reflecting sensitivity to Fed policy expectations, particularly after disappointing employment and layoff reports [2] - While the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in September is considered low, traders are still hedging against this possibility in the SOFR options market [2] - Recent bearish positions suggest that some traders believe the current economic slowdown is merely a temporary phenomenon, with strong data likely to push yields up faster than weak data can bring them down [2] Group 3: Employment Data Impact - The trajectory of yields in the coming weeks will largely depend on the employment data released on Friday, with any figure below 40,000 new jobs likely to shift market expectations towards a 50 basis point rate cut [4] - To eliminate the possibility of rate cuts, non-farm payroll data would need to exceed 130,000 or show positive revisions [4] Group 4: SOFR Options Activity - Recent activity in SOFR options indicates a strong interest in the 96.00 strike price, with significant inflows into both call and put options, reflecting market positioning ahead of potential rate changes [7][9] - The most active options include a large number of call options at the 96.125 strike price, driven by a substantial build-up of positions in recent weeks [9] Group 5: CFTC Futures Positioning - CFTC data shows that hedge funds have expanded their net short positions in both front-end and back-end futures markets, while asset management firms have increased their long positions [15]