Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for January exceeded expectations, leading to a decrease in the unemployment rate, which reinforces the Federal Reserve's expectation to maintain high interest rates, creating downward pressure on gold prices. However, gold prices quickly rebounded after a brief pullback, indicating strong bullish momentum [1]. Group 1 - The support level at 5000 for gold is considered strong, making it difficult for prices to drop below this point [1]. - The market is currently experiencing high volatility, with resistance levels noted around 5100 and 5150, while support is observed in the 5000-5020 range [1]. - The short-term trading strategy suggests a focus on the 5120-5000 range for high short and low long positions, with a wait for new fundamental indicators to guide direction [1]. Group 2 - The previous trading recommendation to go long at 5025 was deemed accurate [3]. - Continuous monitoring of real-time market trends is emphasized for effective trading decisions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is currently experiencing a short-term oscillation, trading at $3,290 per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.35% from the previous day, indicating a complex interplay between policy and risk factors affecting the market [1][3]. Market Analysis - The gold market is under pressure due to the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining high interest rates, coupled with strong employment data and high inflation expectations, which are contributing to downward pressure on gold prices [3]. - Conversely, escalating trade conflicts and uncertainties in the global economic outlook are providing a support base for gold as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The focus is on whether the support level at $3,250 will hold, while closely monitoring the Federal Reserve officials' statements and CPI data for potential directional breakthroughs [3]. Technical Analysis - The current market structure indicates that gold is undergoing its third pullback from the historical high of $3,500, with critical levels to watch being the resistance at $3,365 and support at $3,248 [4]. - A breakdown below the green line segment at $3,248 could lead to further declines towards $3,167, while the rebound strength at this level will be crucial for determining future trends [4]. - The short-term trading strategy suggests entering short positions around $3,300, with a protective stop at $3,315 and a target of $3,276, with further downside potential if the support at $3,247 is breached [6].

Fundamental Analysis - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 3 was reported at 228,000, slightly below the market expectation of 230,000 and down from the previous value of 241,000, indicating a relatively robust labor market [1] - The decline in jobless claims suggests that the employment market has not deteriorated significantly, which may strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, thereby supporting the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on gold priced in dollars [1] - The resilience of the labor market may reduce investor concerns about an economic recession, lowering safe-haven demand and further suppressing the upward potential of gold prices [1] Trade Agreement Insights - The trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. retains a 10% baseline tariff on the U.K. while expanding market access and eliminating tariffs on U.K. steel and aluminum, which may alleviate trade friction and reduce cost pressures in related industries [2] - The cancellation of steel and aluminum tariffs could boost industrial metal demand, although its direct impact on gold is limited as gold is primarily viewed as a safe-haven asset rather than an industrial commodity [2] - The zero-tariff provision on U.S. agricultural products to the U.K. may enhance U.S. agricultural exports to the U.K., potentially improving the U.S. trade balance, which could lead to a stronger dollar and short-term pressure on gold as a dollar-denominated asset [2] - The agreement's expansion of market access may further promote bilateral trade and enhance market risk appetite, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a short-term rebound to around 3437.8 before gradually retreating, with the Federal Reserve's inaction contributing to weak bullish momentum and significant short-term price pressure [4] - The moving averages MA20 and MA60 are in a bearish arrangement, indicating a current bearish trend for prices, with a key resistance level at approximately 3323.7 [4] - The CCI indicator is near the oversold zone and is turning downward, suggesting the possibility of further price declines [4] - Trading strategy suggests attempting to short near 3323.7 with a stop loss at 3331.0 and targets at 3262.9 and 3223.4 [2][4] Silver Analysis - Silver prices have been on a downward trend after retreating from recent highs, with the moving average system indicating a strong bearish sentiment and weak bullish momentum [6] - A key resistance level is identified at approximately 32.52, which aligns with the MA20 pressure point [6] - The CCI indicator has crossed below the oversold zone, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend [6] - Trading strategy suggests attempting to short near 32.52 with a stop loss at 32.72 and targets at 32.09 and 31.92 [5][6]