Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the latest employment and price data from the U.S. show significant economic resilience, with initial jobless claims falling to 224,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week, and remaining at a low level since November 2021 [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022, which suggests upward pressure on costs for goods and services [3] - The tight labor market and unexpectedly high PPI data reflect an imbalance within the economy, where strong employment may support consumer demand and wage growth, while rising costs could lead to sustained inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - Investors should monitor inflation indicators and employment data in the coming weeks to assess potential adjustments in the Federal Reserve's policy path, which may influence stock, bond, and dollar market trends [4] - The recent data suggests that policymakers may need to be more cautious in their monetary policy operations to avoid misjudgments due to short-term data fluctuations [4]

Economic Growth Forecast - The European Commission's spring economic forecast for 2025 indicates that despite global policy uncertainties and escalating trade tensions, the EU economy is expected to maintain moderate growth this year, with a potential rebound in 2026 [1] - The projected real GDP growth for the EU and Eurozone in 2025 is 1.1% and 0.9% respectively, remaining largely unchanged from 2024; growth is expected to increase to 1.5% and 1.4% in 2026 [1] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - The overall inflation rate in the Eurozone is anticipated to decrease from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and further to 1.7% in 2026; the EU's inflation rate is also expected to decline from a slightly higher level in 2024 to just below 2% by 2026 [1] - Private consumption is projected to grow slightly above last autumn's forecast, reaching 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, supported by strong growth momentum in 2024 and a resilient labor market despite high savings rates limiting consumption [1] Investment and Trade - Following a contraction of 1.8% in fixed capital formation in 2024, investment is expected to recover moderately, with growth forecasted at 1.5% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 [1] - EU exports are projected to grow by 0.7% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, impacted by a slowdown in global trade [1] Employment and Wage Trends - The labor market remains resilient, with an expected increase of 2 million jobs by 2026 and a reduction in the unemployment rate to a historical low of 5.7% [2] - Nominal wage growth is slowing, but real wages are expected to continue rising, helping to recover purchasing power lost during the pandemic [2] Fiscal Outlook - The general government deficit for the EU is projected to rise to 3.3% in 2025 after a decrease to 3.2% in 2024, remaining at that level in 2026 [2] - The debt-to-GDP ratio for the EU is expected to slightly increase to 83.2% in 2025 and 84.5% in 2026 [2] Risks and Opportunities - Risks such as trade fragmentation and climate disasters pose downward threats to growth; however, positive factors like easing US-EU trade tensions, new trade agreements, increased defense spending, and deepening structural reforms are expected to enhance the resilience of the EU economy [2]

一、基本面： 美国至5月3日当周初请失业金人数公布值为22.8万人，略低于市场预期的23万人，同时较前值24.1万人 有所下降，显示劳动力市场仍保持相对稳健。由于初请失业金人数下降，表明就业市场并未明显恶化， 这可能强化市场对美联储维持较高利率更长时间的预期，从而支撑美元走势，并对以美元计价的黄金构 成一定压力。此外，就业市场的韧性可能削弱投资者对经济衰退的担忧，降低避险需求，进一步抑制金 价上行空间。 关税方面，英美达成贸易协议，美国将保留对英国10%的基准关税、扩大双方市场准入、取消对英钢铝 关税、对美农产品实行0关税、对英汽车进口实行阶梯关税。协议中保留了英国10%的基准关税，同时 取消了对英国钢铝的关税，这一举措可能缓解两国在金属贸易领域的摩擦，降低相关行业的成本压力。 钢铝关税的取消可能提振工业金属需求，但对黄金的直接影响有限，因其更多作为避险资产而非工业商 品。不过，协议中对美国农产品实行零关税的条款可能增加美国农产品对英国的出口，从而改善美国的 贸易平衡，若美元因此走强，黄金作为美元计价资产可能面临短期压力。此外，协议扩大双方市场准 入，可能进一步促进双边贸易，增强市场风险偏好，削弱黄金的避险吸 ...