Core Viewpoint - The report by Gina Bolvin of Bolvin Wealth Management emphasizes the need for clearer evidence that the Federal Reserve's policies are returning to the 2% inflation target before a significant decline in long-term bond yields can be expected [1] Group 1 - The biggest risk observed in the market is the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [1] - If the job market remains resilient and fiscal or tariff policies support growth or exert inflationary pressure, the Federal Reserve may not need to implement the anticipated interest rate cuts, necessitating a repricing of bonds [1] - Currently, there is a lack of evidence indicating that the Federal Reserve's policies are on track to achieve the 2% inflation target [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the latest employment and price data from the U.S. show significant economic resilience, with initial jobless claims falling to 224,000, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week, and remaining at a low level since November 2021 [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 3.3% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022, which suggests upward pressure on costs for goods and services [3] - The tight labor market and unexpectedly high PPI data reflect an imbalance within the economy, where strong employment may support consumer demand and wage growth, while rising costs could lead to sustained inflationary pressures [3] Group 2 - Investors should monitor inflation indicators and employment data in the coming weeks to assess potential adjustments in the Federal Reserve's policy path, which may influence stock, bond, and dollar market trends [4] - The recent data suggests that policymakers may need to be more cautious in their monetary policy operations to avoid misjudgments due to short-term data fluctuations [4]

Economic Growth Forecast - The European Commission's spring economic forecast for 2025 indicates that despite global policy uncertainties and escalating trade tensions, the EU economy is expected to maintain moderate growth this year, with a potential rebound in 2026 [1] - The projected real GDP growth for the EU and Eurozone in 2025 is 1.1% and 0.9% respectively, remaining largely unchanged from 2024; growth is expected to increase to 1.5% and 1.4% in 2026 [1] Inflation and Consumer Behavior - The overall inflation rate in the Eurozone is anticipated to decrease from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.1% in 2025 and further to 1.7% in 2026; the EU's inflation rate is also expected to decline from a slightly higher level in 2024 to just below 2% by 2026 [1] - Private consumption is projected to grow slightly above last autumn's forecast, reaching 1.5% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, supported by strong growth momentum in 2024 and a resilient labor market despite high savings rates limiting consumption [1] Investment and Trade - Following a contraction of 1.8% in fixed capital formation in 2024, investment is expected to recover moderately, with growth forecasted at 1.5% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026 [1] - EU exports are projected to grow by 0.7% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, impacted by a slowdown in global trade [1] Employment and Wage Trends - The labor market remains resilient, with an expected increase of 2 million jobs by 2026 and a reduction in the unemployment rate to a historical low of 5.7% [2] - Nominal wage growth is slowing, but real wages are expected to continue rising, helping to recover purchasing power lost during the pandemic [2] Fiscal Outlook - The general government deficit for the EU is projected to rise to 3.3% in 2025 after a decrease to 3.2% in 2024, remaining at that level in 2026 [2] - The debt-to-GDP ratio for the EU is expected to slightly increase to 83.2% in 2025 and 84.5% in 2026 [2] Risks and Opportunities - Risks such as trade fragmentation and climate disasters pose downward threats to growth; however, positive factors like easing US-EU trade tensions, new trade agreements, increased defense spending, and deepening structural reforms are expected to enhance the resilience of the EU economy [2]

Fundamental Analysis - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending May 3 was reported at 228,000, slightly below the market expectation of 230,000 and down from the previous value of 241,000, indicating a relatively robust labor market [1] - The decline in jobless claims suggests that the employment market has not deteriorated significantly, which may strengthen market expectations for the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period, thereby supporting the U.S. dollar and putting pressure on gold priced in dollars [1] - The resilience of the labor market may reduce investor concerns about an economic recession, lowering safe-haven demand and further suppressing the upward potential of gold prices [1] Trade Agreement Insights - The trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. retains a 10% baseline tariff on the U.K. while expanding market access and eliminating tariffs on U.K. steel and aluminum, which may alleviate trade friction and reduce cost pressures in related industries [2] - The cancellation of steel and aluminum tariffs could boost industrial metal demand, although its direct impact on gold is limited as gold is primarily viewed as a safe-haven asset rather than an industrial commodity [2] - The zero-tariff provision on U.S. agricultural products to the U.K. may enhance U.S. agricultural exports to the U.K., potentially improving the U.S. trade balance, which could lead to a stronger dollar and short-term pressure on gold as a dollar-denominated asset [2] - The agreement's expansion of market access may further promote bilateral trade and enhance market risk appetite, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have shown a short-term rebound to around 3437.8 before gradually retreating, with the Federal Reserve's inaction contributing to weak bullish momentum and significant short-term price pressure [4] - The moving averages MA20 and MA60 are in a bearish arrangement, indicating a current bearish trend for prices, with a key resistance level at approximately 3323.7 [4] - The CCI indicator is near the oversold zone and is turning downward, suggesting the possibility of further price declines [4] - Trading strategy suggests attempting to short near 3323.7 with a stop loss at 3331.0 and targets at 3262.9 and 3223.4 [2][4] Silver Analysis - Silver prices have been on a downward trend after retreating from recent highs, with the moving average system indicating a strong bearish sentiment and weak bullish momentum [6] - A key resistance level is identified at approximately 32.52, which aligns with the MA20 pressure point [6] - The CCI indicator has crossed below the oversold zone, indicating a potential continuation of the downward trend [6] - Trading strategy suggests attempting to short near 32.52 with a stop loss at 32.72 and targets at 32.09 and 31.92 [5][6]