Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has shifted its preference back to Asian investment-grade dollar bonds due to concerns over the U.S. economy and expectations of a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Economic Concerns - The report highlights renewed worries about U.S. economic growth, which has led to a reassessment of investment strategies [1] - The valuation of U.S. assets is considered higher than it was at the end of 2024, prompting a shift in focus [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Asian investment-grade bonds instead of high-yield bonds, citing the defensive characteristics of investment-grade bonds [1] - The overall weakness in the credit bond market could negatively impact the performance of high-yield sectors [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Within the Asian investment-grade bond market, Goldman Sachs identifies BBB-rated bonds, such as those from Hong Kong developers and subordinated bank capital bonds, as having significant investment value [1] - Chinese investment-grade bonds, which offer the highest risk premiums, are also highlighted as attractive investment opportunities [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to move up in a volatile manner, and government bonds are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is expected to move sideways, iron ore and coking coal and coke are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper, tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range trading or waiting and seeing; aluminum is recommended to wait and see; nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [1][11][13][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner; soda ash is recommended to wait and see; urea and methanol are expected to move sideways; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][25][26]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner; apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways [1][37][38]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies; corn is expected to have high - level fluctuations; soybean meal and oils are expected to move in a range [1][40][42][43]. Core Views The report provides investment ratings and trading suggestions for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the market conditions, including supply - demand relationships, cost factors, policy expectations, and macro - economic factors, to predict the price trends of these futures products. Traders are advised to adjust their investment strategies according to the characteristics and influencing factors of each product. Summaries by Catalog Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: There is a slow - bull market with a possible double - top situation. The market is affected by factors such as US - EU trade issues, Chinese housing policies, and large - scale hydropower projects [6]. - **Government Bonds**: The current loose capital situation supports the bond market, but the short - term upward space is limited due to the increase in market risk appetite. It is necessary to wait for the cooling of the stock and commodity markets to consider layout. Short - term long - bond strategies are not recommended [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to move sideways. Although the price has risen to a certain level, the fundamentals are in a relatively balanced state. It is necessary to pay attention to the Politburo meeting and the implementation of crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. The increase in industry - related meetings and the increase in blast furnace复产 have positive impacts on the raw material side. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is strong [8][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. For coking coal, the supply is affected by environmental protection and accidents, and the demand is strong. For coke, the supply is in a contraction state, and the demand is multi - dimensional. It is necessary to pay attention to steel mill profits and cost fluctuations [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to move in a range. The US copper import tariff policy, domestic consumption season, and economic situation affect the price. The supply is expected to increase, which will restrict the price increase [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fall and then stabilize. The supply of bauxite and alumina is expected to change, and the demand is affected by the season. The arrival of aluminum ingots will increase, and the high price will suppress demand [13]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to move sideways. The supply of the nickel industry is in an over - supply situation, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies [16]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to move in a range. The supply of tin ore has improved limitedly, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: The price is expected to move in a range. The US economic data, geopolitical situation, and tariff policy affect the price. It is recommended to conduct range trading [18][19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Although the supply is high and the export sustainability is uncertain, the current policy expectations are dominant. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - data, export, inventory, and raw material prices [20][21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate is slowing down. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - factors and the relationship between supply and demand [22][23]. - **Styrene**: The price is expected to move weakly in a range. The supply has a resumption and future production increase expectations, and the demand has the risk of weakening. It is necessary to pay attention to oil prices, raw material supply, and macro - policies [24][25]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. The macro - environment and cost factors support the price, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is necessary to pay attention to production area weather and downstream demand [26][28]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to move sideways. The supply is slightly reduced, the demand has certain support, and the inventory is decreasing. It is necessary to pay attention to the relationship between supply and demand [30]. - **Methanol**: The price is expected to move sideways. The supply is affected by device maintenance, the demand of methanol - to - olefins has increased slightly, and the traditional demand is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the supply - demand relationship [32]. - **Polyolefins**: The price is expected to move weakly in a range. The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory has a slight decline. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - policies, cost, and downstream demand [33][34]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is under pressure. Although the short - term macro - drive is strong, the long - term support is uncertain [36]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The price is expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Although the downstream consumption is light, the spot market is tight [37]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to move sideways. The trading in the production area is cautious, and the sales area is affected by competing fruits. The low - inventory situation supports the high - level range movement [38]. - **Jujubes**: The price is expected to be stable. The new - season production in the production area is in the growth stage, and the sales area has low arrivals and general consumption [38]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: The price is expected to move weakly in a range. The overall supply pressure is large, and the price is affected by factors such as seasonality, government policies, and enterprise production [40][41]. - **Eggs**: The 09 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 12 and 01 contracts are recommended to go long on dips. The short - term supply pressure is relieved, but the long - term supply may increase [42][43]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to have high - level fluctuations. The short - term supply is relatively loose, and the long - term supply - demand relationship is tightening. It is recommended to be cautious about bottom - fishing and pay attention to 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [43][44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The price is expected to move in a range. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the long - term cost and supply - demand contradictions may stimulate the price to rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up in the short - term and go long on dips in the long - term [45][46]. - **Oils**: The price is expected to move in a range. The short - term prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up [46][51].