Core Viewpoint - The current fluctuations in gold prices are reminiscent of the 2015 market dynamics, with significant volatility and a potential for further declines due to market sentiment and Federal Reserve policies [3][5][6]. Market Trends - Gold prices recently experienced a drop from $3950 to $3880 following a statement from the Federal Reserve, which reduced market expectations for future rate cuts [3]. - The price movements show a pattern similar to 2015, with daily fluctuations of over $50 becoming common [5][14]. Investor Behavior - There is an increase in gold selling, with reports indicating a 30% rise in individuals selling gold, reflecting a fear of repeating past losses [6][13]. - Younger investors are increasingly purchasing gold, with their share of investment rising to 35%, contrasting with the past trend of declining interest during price drops [11][16]. Institutional Perspectives - Major financial institutions are divided on gold price forecasts, with some predicting further declines while others anticipate a rebound due to strong demand from central banks [6][13]. - The current central bank gold purchases have significantly increased compared to 2015, providing a buffer for gold prices [8][13]. Technical Analysis - Current support levels for gold are clearer than in 2015, with a defined range between $3850 and $3880 [8]. - Historical data suggests that after significant price drops, there is a high probability of subsequent rebounds, indicating potential trading opportunities [16][18]. Economic Context - The inflation environment is notably different from 2015, with current core PCE inflation above 3%, which may enhance gold's appeal as an inflation hedge [18]. - The gold-to-oil ratio has reached an extreme level, indicating a significant premium for gold compared to oil, which was not the case in 2015 [16].

尽管市场短期波动剧烈，各国央行却展现出截然不同的操作逻辑。 中国央行连续11个月增持黄金，9月末储备量增至7406万盎司；印度央行10月更是一次性 购入27吨黄金，推动其年内累计购金量达77吨。 10月30日凌晨2点，纽约商品交易所的金价分时图上，突破4020美元关口，随后俯冲至3938美元。 这场持续不到4小时的"闪崩"背后，是美联储降息25个基 点后鲍威尔的一句"12月降息远非板上钉钉"。 多头资金瞬间溃散，黄金ETF单日减仓2.87吨，创下近一个月最大流出纪录。 10月29日的议息会议原本被市场视为利好出尽的转折点。 然而，美联储一面降息至3.75?.00%目标区间，一面却通过鲍威尔之口释放强硬立场："委员会内部 对12月是否降息存在强烈分歧"。 这一表态导致利率期货市场对12月降息的预期概率从95%骤降至67.9%。 美元指数应声反弹至98.8，10年期美债收益率攀 升至4.08%，形成对黄金的双重绞杀。 亚洲时段一度反弹至3980美元，却在欧美交易时段被连续大单砸破3950美元支撑位。 网友指出，5日与10日均线形成死叉，MACD指标持续运行在零轴下 方，短期趋势已彻底转向空头。 更严峻的是，金价跌 ...