分化核心：权重股托底与科技股承压的"拉锯战" 恒指的微弱上涨，实则是金融、能源等传统权重板块的"独角戏"。数据显示，恒生指数成分股中，金融 板块贡献了近60%的涨幅，汇丰控股凭借季度业绩超预期上涨1.2%，成为推动指数上行的核心动力；能 源股则受益于国际油价反弹，中石油港股上涨0.8%，中海油服涨幅达1.5%。此外，内房股板块迎来政 策利好刺激，龙湖集团、华润置地分别上涨0.5%和0.7%，进一步为指数提供支撑。 11月27日，港股市场上演"冰火两重天"：恒生指数以0.07%的微涨勉强收红，定格于17825.43点；而作 为市场"科技晴雨表"的恒生科技指数却逆势下跌0.36%，报3852.19点。这组看似平淡的涨跌数据，实则 暴露了港股当前的核心矛盾——传统权重股托底与科技成长股承压的博弈。在美联储政策悬而未决、内 地经济复苏进程放缓的背景下，这种分化格局是短期震荡的缩影，还是长期趋势的开端？千亿资金正紧 盯三大关键变量寻找答案。 第二，内地经济复苏力度。作为港股的"基本面锚"，内地经济数据直接影响内房、消费、金融等核心板 块表现。11月制造业PMI预期值为49.8，若实际数据超预期回升，将提振市场对经济复苏 ...

Global Market Overview - The report indicates that global markets are under pressure due to current tariff issues, leading to increased volatility. Major US stock indices experienced pullbacks, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all declining [1][3] - The TAMAMA technology index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has risen to 35.1, exceeding the 35 mark, indicating a high valuation. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio has further increased to 51.8, while the Nasdaq's P/E ratio stands at 42.5, both suggesting potential overvaluation [1][12] - The report highlights that the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is at 38.12, significantly above historical averages, indicating that various sectors such as finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials may face corrections due to high valuations and economic uncertainties [1][12] US Market Performance - The S&P 500 index, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw declines of 0.31%, 0.08%, and 1.02% respectively during the week [3][12] - Within the S&P 500, the energy sector had the highest increase at 2.48%, while the financial sector experienced the largest decline at 1.91% [12][16] European Market Performance - European markets showed mixed results, with the German DAX index increasing by 1.97%, while other indices like the UK FTSE 100 and French CAC40 also saw modest gains [9][10] - The report anticipates potential corrections in major European indices such as the CAC40, FTSE 100, DAX, and others due to high price-to-book ratios and economic pressures [1][9] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all increased, with respective gains of 0.93%, 0.91%, and 2.07% [4][24] - The report notes that the Hong Kong market is expected to experience further differentiation, with low-valuation assets that are less impacted by trade issues presenting structural buying opportunities amidst volatility [1][39] Emerging Markets Performance - Emerging markets displayed varied performance, with the Ho Chi Minh Index rising by 5.1%, while the Brazilian IBOVESPA index fell by 3.59% [11][39] - The report suggests that emerging markets may also face corrections due to economic fundamentals and uncertainties stemming from US trade policies [1][39] Key Economic Data - The report mentions that in May 2025, the Eurozone retail sales index grew by 1.8%, down from 2.7% previously, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [4][43] - In June 2025, Germany's CPI year-on-year growth was 2%, slightly lower than the previous 2.1%, while France's CPI increased to 1% from 0.7% [40][43]

Global Market Overview - The US stock market continued its rebound, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.5%, 2.18%, and 1.17% respectively [2][11] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rising by 2.16%, 2.34%, and 1.93% respectively [2][23] - The TAMAMA Technology Index has a P/E ratio of 32.2, indicating it remains in a high valuation zone above 30 [1][16] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio increased to 45.8, also indicating a high valuation above 45 [1][16] - The Nasdaq Index's P/E ratio is at 39.9, nearing the high zone of 40 [1][16] US Market Insights - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has risen to 36.91, significantly above historical averages [1][16] - The uncertainty in US economic policies and high valuations are putting pressure on sectors such as finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials [1][16] - Major individual stocks within growth and value sectors are experiencing notable daily corrections [1][16] European Market Insights - European markets have shown a rebound, but rapid valuation increases combined with weak economic fundamentals may lead to volatility in indices such as the FTSE 100, CAC40, DAX, and STOXX50 [1][2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is experiencing further differentiation, with previously overheated assets beginning to cool down [1][38] - There is an expectation of continued differentiation in the Hong Kong market, with potential for stage corrections in assets that have seen significant gains in the first half of the year [1][38] - Structural opportunities may exist in low-valuation assets with good fundamentals and minimal trade impact, as the market has not yet formed a comprehensive bull market [1][38] Emerging Markets Insights - Emerging markets such as Istanbul ISE100, India SENSEX30, and others are likely to experience volatility due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties [1][2]

US Market Insights - The S&P 500 index, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all increased by 1.5%, 2.18%, and 1.17% respectively this week[2] - The TAMAMA technology index has a P/E ratio of 32.2, indicating it remains in a high valuation zone above 30[1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio rose to 45.8, also indicating a high valuation above 45[1] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio increased to 36.91, significantly above historical averages[1] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rose by 2.16%, 2.34%, and 1.93% respectively this week[2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.25% this week[3] - The market is experiencing further differentiation, with previously overheated assets beginning to cool down[1] - Structural opportunities exist in low-valuation assets with good fundamentals and minimal trade impact[1] Economic Indicators - Eurozone CPI year-on-year growth was 1.9% in May, down from 2.2%[3] - Eurozone core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.3%, down from 2.7%[3] - The US unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in May[42]

Market Overview - The US stock market has rebounded significantly, leading to a notable increase in valuations, with the TAMAMA Technology Index P/E ratio rising to 32, above the high range of 30[1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index P/E ratio has surged to 46, exceeding the high range of 45[1] - The Nasdaq Index, heavily weighted by technology stocks, has a P/E ratio of 39.8, nearing the high range of 40[1] Valuation Concerns - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has increased to 36.6, significantly above the historical average of 17.24 and median of 16.04[1] - Due to economic policy uncertainties, high valuations, and rapid increases, the US stock market may face further downward pressure in the medium term[1] Sector Performance - The S&P 500's Information Technology sector saw the largest increase, with a weekly gain of 8.14%, while the Healthcare sector had the smallest increase at 0.26%[11] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 2.09%, with the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index increasing by 1.92% and 1.37%, respectively[21] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are expected to experience volatility, with indices such as the Istanbul ISE100 and India SENSEX30 likely to face challenges due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties[1] - The Nikkei 225 index's rebound has slowed, with a weekly increase of only 0.67%, indicating potential for a correction[1] Investment Strategy - In the Hong Kong market, after a period of rebound, there is a likelihood of differentiation among assets, with some experiencing corrections[32] - Investors are advised to avoid indiscriminate buying and focus on sectors like Information Technology, Healthcare, and Financials, where structural opportunities may arise from low valuations and strong fundamentals[32]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent rebound in the US stock market has led to a significant increase in valuations, with the TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio rising to 32, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio reaching 46, and the Nasdaq Index nearing a P/E ratio of 39.8, all indicating elevated valuation levels [1][12][16] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has surged to 36.6, significantly above historical averages of 17.24 and a median of 16.04, suggesting that the market is overvalued [1][12][16] - The report anticipates that the rebound phase for US technology stocks, which began in mid-April, is entering a later stage, and due to fundamental and valuation factors, a correction is likely after the rebound [1][12][16] Group 2 - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market has experienced volatility after a period of rebound, with certain assets likely to face corrections due to overbought conditions [1][36] - It highlights that sectors such as information technology, healthcare, industrials, consumer, and finance have not yet formed a comprehensive bull market, leading to potential differentiation in stock performance within these sectors [1][36] - The report suggests that there are structural opportunities in low-valuation assets with strong fundamentals and minimal trade impact, particularly in the context of market fluctuations [1][36] Group 3 - The report provides data on the performance of major indices, indicating that the Nasdaq Index rose by 7.15%, the S&P 500 by 5.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 3.41% over the week [2][4][12] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.09%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.92%, and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index by 1.37% [2][4][24] - The report also mentions that the financial sector in Hong Kong saw the largest gains, while the utilities sector experienced a decline [26][28]