Global Market Overview - The report indicates that global markets are under pressure due to current tariff issues, leading to increased volatility. Major US stock indices experienced pullbacks, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all declining [1][3] - The TAMAMA technology index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has risen to 35.1, exceeding the 35 mark, indicating a high valuation. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio has further increased to 51.8, while the Nasdaq's P/E ratio stands at 42.5, both suggesting potential overvaluation [1][12] - The report highlights that the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is at 38.12, significantly above historical averages, indicating that various sectors such as finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials may face corrections due to high valuations and economic uncertainties [1][12] US Market Performance - The S&P 500 index, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw declines of 0.31%, 0.08%, and 1.02% respectively during the week [3][12] - Within the S&P 500, the energy sector had the highest increase at 2.48%, while the financial sector experienced the largest decline at 1.91% [12][16] European Market Performance - European markets showed mixed results, with the German DAX index increasing by 1.97%, while other indices like the UK FTSE 100 and French CAC40 also saw modest gains [9][10] - The report anticipates potential corrections in major European indices such as the CAC40, FTSE 100, DAX, and others due to high price-to-book ratios and economic pressures [1][9] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all increased, with respective gains of 0.93%, 0.91%, and 2.07% [4][24] - The report notes that the Hong Kong market is expected to experience further differentiation, with low-valuation assets that are less impacted by trade issues presenting structural buying opportunities amidst volatility [1][39] Emerging Markets Performance - Emerging markets displayed varied performance, with the Ho Chi Minh Index rising by 5.1%, while the Brazilian IBOVESPA index fell by 3.59% [11][39] - The report suggests that emerging markets may also face corrections due to economic fundamentals and uncertainties stemming from US trade policies [1][39] Key Economic Data - The report mentions that in May 2025, the Eurozone retail sales index grew by 1.8%, down from 2.7% previously, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [4][43] - In June 2025, Germany's CPI year-on-year growth was 2%, slightly lower than the previous 2.1%, while France's CPI increased to 1% from 0.7% [40][43]

Global Market Overview - The US stock market continued its rebound, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.5%, 2.18%, and 1.17% respectively [2][11] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rising by 2.16%, 2.34%, and 1.93% respectively [2][23] - The TAMAMA Technology Index has a P/E ratio of 32.2, indicating it remains in a high valuation zone above 30 [1][16] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio increased to 45.8, also indicating a high valuation above 45 [1][16] - The Nasdaq Index's P/E ratio is at 39.9, nearing the high zone of 40 [1][16] US Market Insights - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has risen to 36.91, significantly above historical averages [1][16] - The uncertainty in US economic policies and high valuations are putting pressure on sectors such as finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials [1][16] - Major individual stocks within growth and value sectors are experiencing notable daily corrections [1][16] European Market Insights - European markets have shown a rebound, but rapid valuation increases combined with weak economic fundamentals may lead to volatility in indices such as the FTSE 100, CAC40, DAX, and STOXX50 [1][2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is experiencing further differentiation, with previously overheated assets beginning to cool down [1][38] - There is an expectation of continued differentiation in the Hong Kong market, with potential for stage corrections in assets that have seen significant gains in the first half of the year [1][38] - Structural opportunities may exist in low-valuation assets with good fundamentals and minimal trade impact, as the market has not yet formed a comprehensive bull market [1][38] Emerging Markets Insights - Emerging markets such as Istanbul ISE100, India SENSEX30, and others are likely to experience volatility due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties [1][2]

US Market Insights - The S&P 500 index, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all increased by 1.5%, 2.18%, and 1.17% respectively this week[2] - The TAMAMA technology index has a P/E ratio of 32.2, indicating it remains in a high valuation zone above 30[1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio rose to 45.8, also indicating a high valuation above 45[1] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio increased to 36.91, significantly above historical averages[1] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rose by 2.16%, 2.34%, and 1.93% respectively this week[2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.25% this week[3] - The market is experiencing further differentiation, with previously overheated assets beginning to cool down[1] - Structural opportunities exist in low-valuation assets with good fundamentals and minimal trade impact[1] Economic Indicators - Eurozone CPI year-on-year growth was 1.9% in May, down from 2.2%[3] - Eurozone core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.3%, down from 2.7%[3] - The US unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in May[42]

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 17 日 [Table_Title] 美股估值回到偏高位，港股短期将进一步分化 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美股市场的反弹使得美股估值出现 明显上升。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率迅速上升至 32，已 经处于 30 以上偏高位区间；费城半导体指数市盈率迅速上升至 46，已经处于 45 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重占比较大的 纳斯达克指数的市盈率为 39.8，临近 40 的偏高位区间，由于美 股科技股估值上升较快，叠加美股科技股新一轮题材风口尚未 出现，预计美股科技股 4 月中旬开始的超跌反弹已经进入中段 偏后环节，由于基本面和估值因素，叠加特朗普政策容易反复 无常，中期来看，反弹期之后美股科技股仍然容易出现回调。 目前标普 500 席勒市盈率迅速上升至 36.6，进一步大幅高于历 史平均数 17.24 和中位数 16.04。由于经济政策的不确定性，美 股估值较高且抬升太快和基本面因素影响仍在，美股中金融、 消费、工业等行业未来短期反弹空间将进一步减少 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent rebound in the US stock market has led to a significant increase in valuations, with the TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio rising to 32, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio reaching 46, and the Nasdaq Index nearing a P/E ratio of 39.8, all indicating elevated valuation levels [1][12][16] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has surged to 36.6, significantly above historical averages of 17.24 and a median of 16.04, suggesting that the market is overvalued [1][12][16] - The report anticipates that the rebound phase for US technology stocks, which began in mid-April, is entering a later stage, and due to fundamental and valuation factors, a correction is likely after the rebound [1][12][16] Group 2 - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market has experienced volatility after a period of rebound, with certain assets likely to face corrections due to overbought conditions [1][36] - It highlights that sectors such as information technology, healthcare, industrials, consumer, and finance have not yet formed a comprehensive bull market, leading to potential differentiation in stock performance within these sectors [1][36] - The report suggests that there are structural opportunities in low-valuation assets with strong fundamentals and minimal trade impact, particularly in the context of market fluctuations [1][36] Group 3 - The report provides data on the performance of major indices, indicating that the Nasdaq Index rose by 7.15%, the S&P 500 by 5.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 3.41% over the week [2][4][12] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.09%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 1.92%, and the Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index by 1.37% [2][4][24] - The report also mentions that the financial sector in Hong Kong saw the largest gains, while the utilities sector experienced a decline [26][28]