根据来自Citadel Securities的股票与股票衍生品策略主管Scott Rubner的最新观点，美股市场今年以来屡创新高强劲涨势的主要推动 群体——散户投资者们，可能将在9月份明显放慢此前近乎狂热的股票买入力度，随后可能在今年晚些时候恢复状态。 这位曾经在高盛工作过多年的华尔街明星策略师Scott Rubner，近年来准确预测美股两次重大回调，尤其是在去年6月底美股基准 指数——标普500指数接连创下新高时，Rubner准确预测美股将在夏末下跌。今年2月19日标普500指数刷新历史高点当天，他再次 示警散户和机构资金动能正在消退，随后该指数迅速转向下跌，在4月更是重挫15%跌入技术性修正区间。 公开信息显示，Scott Rubner在高盛任职近十年，离职前担任高盛全球市场董事总经理兼战术专家。他深耕于全球资金流向研究超 过20年，在华尔街以极其精准的市场时机预判而著称。 Citadel Securities汇编的统计数据显示，散户投资者们在过去18周中有16周是美国股票市场的净买家，并且已连续16周成为股票期 权的净买家，这是自2020年以来持续时间第六长的看涨连胜。 "我认为这股激增势力是结构性的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pace of capital inflow into the US stock market is slowing, making it more susceptible to external shocks, despite a 25% increase in the S&P 500 since April's low [1]. Group 1: Capital Inflow Trends - Retail investor demand for US stocks is following a seasonal slowdown, with daily inflows dropping from $3.5 billion at the beginning of the month to $1.5 billion currently, and expected to continue decreasing as summer progresses [2]. - Systematic strategies have remained significant buyers, maintaining daily purchases exceeding $5 billion, but are projected to halve to $2.5 billion by the end of the month [6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Events - Historical data indicates that the strong seasonal performance of the stock market in early July typically weakens until August [4]. - A large number of companies are currently in their stock buyback quiet period, which is expected to ease by early August [8]. - Multiple potential market-moving events are converging at the end of July, including the Federal Reserve's decision, non-farm payroll data, and the approaching deadline for tariff policies [12]. Group 3: Earnings Reports and Market Reactions - In the last week of July, companies representing 40% of the S&P 500's market capitalization will report earnings, with previous research indicating that simultaneous earnings releases from large-cap companies tend to yield greater absolute returns, slightly skewed towards negative outcomes [14]. - An estimated $17 billion in asset allocation supply pressure is anticipated, which could trigger market pullbacks in response to any noise from earnings reports, macro data, or tariff policies [17]. Group 4: Hedge Fund Positioning - Hedge funds currently maintain a net exposure of 51%, which is at the historical median level, with a year-to-date profit buffer of 4.9% for US long-short strategies [10]. - The moderate positioning of hedge funds leaves room for upward movement, suggesting that further accumulation may occur before any market downturn [10].