根据来自Citadel Securities的股票与股票衍生品策略主管Scott Rubner的最新观点，美股市场今年以来屡创新高强劲涨势的主要推动 群体——散户投资者们，可能将在9月份明显放慢此前近乎狂热的股票买入力度，随后可能在今年晚些时候恢复状态。 这位曾经在高盛工作过多年的华尔街明星策略师Scott Rubner，近年来准确预测美股两次重大回调，尤其是在去年6月底美股基准 指数——标普500指数接连创下新高时，Rubner准确预测美股将在夏末下跌。今年2月19日标普500指数刷新历史高点当天，他再次 示警散户和机构资金动能正在消退，随后该指数迅速转向下跌，在4月更是重挫15%跌入技术性修正区间。 公开信息显示，Scott Rubner在高盛任职近十年，离职前担任高盛全球市场董事总经理兼战术专家。他深耕于全球资金流向研究超 过20年，在华尔街以极其精准的市场时机预判而著称。 Citadel Securities汇编的统计数据显示，散户投资者们在过去18周中有16周是美国股票市场的净买家，并且已连续16周成为股票期 权的净买家，这是自2020年以来持续时间第六长的看涨连胜。 "我认为这股激增势力是结构性的 ...

Group 1: Market Trends - After the tariff announcement on April 2, the US stock market quickly priced in a recessionary regime, eliminating the possibility of a "Goldilocks" (moderate growth) scenario. This trend has since reversed, with the probability of the Goldilocks regime returning to March's average level [1] - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMIs) continues to decline, while OECD leading indicators show the economy remains in a late cycle but has not yet exited the expansion phase. The REVS regime favors late-cycle defensive sectors like communication services, but as leading indicators weaken, preferences may shift more towards utilities [2] Group 2: Earnings Adjustments - Almost all sectors have seen downward revisions in sales and earnings expectations, but the pace of these adjustments has slowed. The sectors with the largest downward revisions include automotive, durable goods, and building materials. The dispersion in earnings scores indicates the presence of alpha opportunities in the market [3] Group 3: Valuation Insights - Forward price-to-earnings ratios have mostly rebounded, returning to a "growth optimism" range. The US stock market's valuation remains higher than other global regions, with dollar-denominated earnings outperforming Europe by 10%, exceeding long-term trends [4] Group 4: Sentiment Analysis - Utilities and consumer staples sectors maintain positive sentiment. UBS crowding data indicates a persistent overweight position in the US market, although it has decreased from March's peak. The significant rotation from cyclical consumer stocks (durable goods and automotive) to defensive sectors (like consumer staples) has not fully normalized [5] Group 5: Top and Bottom Rated Stocks - The highest-rated stocks based on the REVS framework include Intercontinental Exchange, Virtu Financial, and Broadcom, with price changes since March 31 ranging from 10.9% to 37.3% [6] - The lowest-rated stocks include Ziprecruiter, Bioxcel Therapeutics, and Jetblue Airways, with price changes since March 31 ranging from 0% to 3.6% [7]

作 者丨吴斌 编 辑丨张星 江佩佩 5月1 9日，美国市场股债汇三杀！ 受穆迪下调美国评级影响，截至北京时间1 8 : 3 6， 美债收益率飙升，美股三大股指期货跌约1%，美元指数下挫，欧元兑美元涨1%，避险资 产黄金正重拾升势。 美债美 股美元全 线杀跌！金价大 幅拉升 截至1 8 : 2 8发稿，美国3 0年期国债收益率攀升约1 0基点，突破5%心理关口，为2 0 2 3年11月以来的最高水平。1 0年期国债收益率攀升近8个 基点至4 . 5%以上，反映出投资者对美国长期财政健康状况的担忧。 | | 关键期限国债 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 买入 | 卖出 | 现价 | | 10Y 美国国债 | 4.541 | 4.539 | 4.539 | | 1M 美国国债 | 4.298 | 4.288 | 4.288 | | 2M 美国国债 | 4.343 | 4.291 | 4.291 | | 3M 美国国债 | 4.372 | 4.323 | 4.323 | | 4M 美国国债 | 4.369 | 4.346 | 4.346 | | 6M 美国国债 | 4.2 ...

市场洞察 - Marquee --- Market Insights - Marquee Market Insights | Markets | Equities 市场洞察 | 市场 | 股票 Equities - Alpha 股票 - 阿尔法 A lot has happened in the last month – reciprocal tariff pause, US-UK trade deal, US-China détente, Indo- Pak ceasefire, Trump's Saudi trip deal announcements, back & forth in Russia-Ukraine peace talks & Iran nuclear deal 过去⼀个⽉发⽣了许多事情——互惠关税暂停、美英贸易协议、美中缓和、印巴停⽕、特朗普沙特之⾏及 协议宣布、俄乌和平谈判反复以及伊朗核协议 Left tail in equities got priced out and right tail has been left to imagination 股票市场的左尾⻛险已被剔除，右尾⻛ ...