Group 1: Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: November 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report adjusted the production, crush, and supply - demand for 24/25 and 25/26 soybean years. The adjustment of the export item in the report indicates a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase of US soybeans, causing short - term adjustment in CBOT soybeans. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. Its future trend depends on China's import data of US soybeans [6] Group 4: Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Contract Quotes**: The "Soybean Meal 2601" contract closed at 3041 yuan, down 10 yuan or 0.33% from the previous settlement; "Soybean Meal 2603" closed at 3008 yuan, up 8 yuan or 0.27%; "Soybean Meal 2605" closed at 2832 yuan, up 15 yuan or 0.53% [6] - **USDA Report**: The 24/25 ending stocks decreased from 330 million bushels to 316 million bushels. For the 25/26 year, the yield per acre was lowered from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export item was reduced by 0.5 bushels to 1.635 billion bushels. The ending stocks of 290 million bushels were higher than market expectations [6] - **China - US Trade Agreement**: China is required to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans by January next year and 25 million tons annually for the next 3 years. However, the USDA's adjustment of the export item shows a lack of confidence in China's full - scale purchase [6] - **Market Outlook**: CBOT soybeans may have a short - term adjustment. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the decline of foreign markets. It may regain its upward trend if China's import of US soybeans improves; otherwise, it will return to the previous range - bound pattern [6] 2. Industry News - **US 2025/26 Soybean Data**: The yield per acre decreased from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels; the production decreased from 4.301 billion bushels to 4.253 billion bushels; the crush remained unchanged at 2.555 billion bushels; the export decreased from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels; the ending stocks decreased from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels [7][8] - **Global 2025/26 Soybean Meal Data**: The production is expected to be 286.418 million tons, a decrease of 1.32 million tons from the previous estimate. The ending stocks are expected to be 18.271 million tons, an increase of 0.117 million tons. The export is expected to be 81.548 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. Argentina's export is expected to decrease by 1.1 million tons, while Brazil's is expected to increase by 0.8 million tons [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, 01 contract basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's November supply - demand report for 2025/26 US soybeans showed a slight downward adjustment in yield, exports, and carry - over, with less - than - expected bullish impact. Brazilian new - crop production is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. 11 - 12 months in China are expected to see a decline in soybean meal inventory, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The purchase progress for 12 - 1 month shipments is slow, and the supply gap in Q1 next year is uncertain [7]. - In terms of demand, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, with cautious downstream transactions and good提货 performance [8]. - China's soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level. If there are no severe weather problems, the market is expected to start trading on the selling pressure of new South American crops from December to January, and it is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: On November 18th, the basis of the Dalian soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) was 19, up 22. The basis in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Dongguan, etc. showed various values and changes [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 120, down 14 [4]. - **Spread Data**: The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 610, up 16 [5]. 3.2 Supply - related Data - **US Supply**: The USDA's November report adjusted the 2025/26 US soybean yield from 53.5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre, kept the crush at 2.555 billion bushels, reduced exports from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and cut the carry - over from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels [7]. - **Brazilian Supply**: The predicted 2025/26 Brazilian new - crop production is 177.6 million tons. As of November 8th, the sowing rate was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week, 66.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: From November to December, domestic soybean meal is expected to see inventory reduction, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The purchase progress for 12 - 1 month shipments is slow, and the supply gap in Q1 next year is uncertain [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - related Data - **Livestock and Poultry Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply [8]. - **Soybean Meal Demand**: The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high. Recently, downstream transactions have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [8]. 3.4 Inventory - related Data - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8].