1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the supply - demand of US soybeans is tightening, leading to an upward shift in the price center. In the short term, domestic soybean meal follows the price increase of US soybeans, but its growth is limited by inventory accumulation expectations and the strength of oils. In the medium - long term, as domestic inventory enters the depletion cycle in late October, the price is expected to continue to be strong [8]. - For oils, although there are short - term risks of high - level corrections due to factors such as reduced market enthusiasm for long - positions and increased vessel purchases, the overall long - term trend remains positive due to factors like tight supply - demand in the origin of palm oil and US soybean new crops [91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market Trend Review - As of August 8, the spot price in East China was 2990 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2601 contract closed at 3137 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 01 - 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. The US soybean price rose to around 1030 cents/bushel due to tightened supply - demand [8][10]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Price: Spot prices in North China, East China, and Shandong all increased, with price differences and basis prices showing various changes. The closing price of the main soybean meal contract increased by 2% [12]. - Supply: The flowering rate, pod - setting rate of US soybeans increased, while the excellent - good rate decreased by 1%. The monthly arrival volume increased by 20%. The purchase progress of shipping schedules from October to December showed different degrees of increase [12]. - Demand: The inventory of soybean meal decreased by 4%, and the提货 volume increased by 4% [12]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - Weather: In the next two weeks, the main producing areas of US soybeans will face local drought in Iowa and Indiana. In the long - term, there is still a risk of periodic drought [51]. - Cost: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1141 cents/bushel, and the estimated bottom price is around 990 cents/bushel. The domestic import cost has increased, and the estimated bottom price of domestic soybean meal is 3130 yuan/ton [8]. - Purchase and Arrival: The purchase of Brazilian vessels from August to September is active, but there is no purchase of US soybeans after September. The supply may be interrupted from October to January, and the price may rise periodically after November [62][72]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Market Trend Review - As of the week of August 15, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices fluctuated significantly. The price first rose due to positive supply - demand reports and the preliminary review of anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed, and then fell due to market sentiment release and new vessel - purchase news [91][93]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil showed different trends. The domestic inventory of palm oil, soybean, and rapeseed showed different degrees of change [98]. - Demand: The domestic trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil decreased, while the domestic rapeseed oil提货 volume increased [98]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - Malaysia: The MPOB July report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than expected. The export demand in August rebounded strongly, and it is expected to remain strong in the short term [91]. - Indonesia: From January to May, production and demand increased. The inventory in May was at a historical low, and the supply - demand is expected to remain in a tight balance in 2025 [114][115]. - India: In July, the total import volume of vegetable oils increased slightly. As of the week of August 1, the total inventory of oils increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. There is still inventory - building demand before the October Diwali Festival [123].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market in Shandong presents a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting. The demand in the third quarter is expected to be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations [19][22]. - The profit in the poultry breeding sector is poor, while the profit in the pig - breeding sector is still available. The feed demand for broilers, pigs, and ducks in Shandong is expected to be promising in the third quarter [13][19]. - Due to policy uncertainties, companies have not made large - scale purchases for the demand from October to January of the next year [6][25]. 3. Summary According to Different Enterprises Enterprise 1 - In the broiler industry chain, the price of chicks has dropped rapidly, with large - scale enterprise chick prices falling below 2 yuan per chick at the end of June (about 3 yuan per chick at the end of May). The hatching link still has a small profit, the slaughter link has a slight loss, and the deep - processing link of broiler food has the highest profit but poor sales [2]. - The feed cost shows that the corn price has increased, and the soybean meal price has decreased. The breeding profit of 817 broilers is not good [2]. - The daily consumption of soybean meal has increased month - on - month, mainly due to formula adjustment rather than feed sales growth. It is expected to remain stable in July compared with June, and if the formula remains unchanged, the consumption will continue to increase month - on - month in August and September, mainly due to the growth of feed sales [4]. - The current addition ratios of soybean meal are 6% in duck feed, 30% in broiler feed, and 8 - 10% in pig feed (this ratio was raised in mid - to late May). Without miscellaneous meal substitution in the short term, this high addition ratio is expected to last until September - October [4]. Enterprise 2 - The addition ratio of soybean meal in broiler feed has increased significantly from 25% at the end of March to 30% currently, and the current formula has reached the upper limit. The future growth of soybean meal demand mainly depends on the growth of feed demand (sales) [7]. - The export of poultry feed has obvious seasonal characteristics, with the sales peak from May to October (especially from August to October) and the off - season from October to December [8]. - It is expected that the company's feed production this year will be the same as last year [9]. Enterprise 3 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is about 80%, while that from October to January of the next year is only about 20% [12]. - The oil yield of new - season Brazilian soybeans is 22% (about 19% in previous years), and the protein content is lower. Now it mainly produces 45% protein soybean meal instead of 46% [12]. - In the breeding link, except for pig breeding, the profits of other sectors such as poultry and aquaculture are not good [13]. Enterprise 4 - The overall crushing profit of oil mills this year is acceptable. Currently, enterprises generally dare not purchase US soybeans but still have time to observe subsequent policy trends [16]. - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is relatively fast, with relatively small sales pressure. However, the sales progress of forward contracts (after October) lags behind that of foreign - funded oil mills [18]. - It is expected that the feed demand for broilers, pigs, and ducks in Shandong will be promising in the third quarter. The soybean meal market will show a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting, but the price is unlikely to rise significantly due to the poor profit and high inventory in the downstream poultry industry [19]. Enterprise 5 - As of the end of June, the soybean purchase progress was too fast. The soybean crushing profit in the third quarter is good. It is expected that the expected arrival volume of soybeans from August to October will continue to be adjusted upward, and the expected terminal inventory pressure of soybeans in September will also be adjusted upward [21]. - The domestic supply of soybean meal in October is expected to be sufficient. The tightness of the spot supply from December to January of the next year and from February to March of the next year still needs to be observed [22]. - The current soybean meal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. It is expected that the demand in the third quarter will be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to rise or fall significantly [22]. Enterprise 6 - It is expected that the soybean meal market will show a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting, and the demand for soybean meal from August to September is expected to increase compared with July [24]. - Due to policy uncertainties, large - scale purchases for the demand from October to January of the next year have not been made. The potential risk is that the possible cargo - right risk from December to January of the next year may drive up the price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract [25]. Enterprise 7 - The month - on - month increase in soybean meal consumption is mainly due to formula adjustment. The current addition ratio of soybean meal in chicken feed is 25% [27]. - The feed sales in June were better than those in May, and it is expected to be the same in July as in June, with a month - on - month increase in August. August - September is the peak season for aquaculture feed sales, and the sales of pig feed are also expected to be good [28]. - The forward (October to January of the next year) purchase ratio of soybean meal is low [30]. Enterprise 8 - Currently, some oil mills in Shandong have started to urge customers to pick up goods to prevent the risk of warehouse overflow, but there is no widespread and substantial warehouse overflow phenomenon yet [32]. - The sales contracts of oil mills in July have been basically sold out, the sales progress from August to September is about 30%, and the sales progress from October to January of the next year is about 10%. The raw material procurement of downstream customers in June has been basically completed [32]. - The later demand for soybean meal is expected to improve month - on - month. The demand from August to September in the third quarter should be better than the current level. The demand for poultry feed and aquaculture feed may weaken from October to January of the next year, but the demand for pig feed is expected to increase [33]. Enterprise 9 - At present, the egg - laying chicken breeding is in a loss state, mainly due to high inventory. Feed enterprises have reduced the use of by - products and increased the addition ratio of soybean meal due to the high prices of corn and other feed by - products [35]. - The current spot price of soybean meal is cost - effective, and it is expected that the spot price of soybean meal will have strong support below 2800 yuan per ton. The position pressure in June was not large, but there may be some pressure in early July [35]. - It is expected that the M2601 contract may be relatively strong, mainly driven by the potential concern about the tight cargo - right from December to January of the next year [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to have high supply and high demand coexisting. The demand in the third quarter is expected to be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to rise or fall significantly. The overall price of soybean meal this year is expected to be at a relatively low level with high inventory, and the price fluctuation may show a mild decline or slow increase. The real potential positive driving force may appear from December to January of the next year [19][22][36] - For the demand from October to January of the next year, due to policy uncertainties, enterprises have not made large - scale purchases yet. There are potential risks of tight cargo rights from December to January of the next year, which may push up the price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract [6][25] Summary by Related Catalogs Broiler Industry Chain Profit - Chicken苗 prices have dropped rapidly, with large - scale enterprise chicken苗 prices falling below 2 yuan per piece at the end of June (about 3 yuan per piece at the end of May). The hatching link still has a small profit, while the slaughter link has a small loss. The deep - processing link of broiler food has the highest profit but poor sales volume. The frozen product sales are poor, and the inventory pressure is high. The 817 broiler breeding profit is not good [2] - Except for pig breeding, the profits of other sectors in the breeding link, such as poultry and aquaculture, are not good [13] Oil Mill Dynamics - Some oil mills have account - inventory situations and start to urge customers to pick up goods. The oil mill operating rate in Shandong is expected to be at a high level by mid - July or the end of July [3] - This year, the overall oil mill crushing profit is okay. Some small - scale crushing plants that were shut down before have resumed production. The sales progress of foreign - funded oil mills is similar to that of the same period last year, while the sales progress of private oil mills is relatively slow [16][29] Soybean Meal Usage and Addition Ratio - Currently, the daily soybean meal usage has increased month - on - month, mainly due to formula adjustment rather than feed sales growth. It is expected that the daily soybean meal usage in July will remain stable compared with June. If the formula remains unchanged in August and September, the usage is expected to continue to increase month - on - month, with the increase mainly coming from the growth of feed sales [4] - The current soybean meal addition ratios are: 6 - 8% in duck feed, 30% in broiler feed, and 8 - 10% in pig feed (this ratio was raised in mid - to late May). Without miscellaneous meal substitution in the short term, this high addition ratio is expected to be maintained until September - October. If wheat is used to replace corn, the impact on soybean meal demand is limited, with only about 1% reduction in usage [4] Inventory and Sales - It is expected that the soybean meal inventory pressure will increase significantly in mid - July. Feed mills, as buyers of the M2507 soybean meal futures contract warehouse receipts, are reluctant to take delivery because current feed enterprises prefer to use 46% protein soybean meal [5] - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is about 80%, while the sales progress from October to January of the next year is only about 20% [12] - The soybean meal market currently shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The sales of oil mills in July have basically been sold out, the sales progress from August to September is about 30%, and the sales progress from October to January of the next year is about 10% [22][32] Procurement - Enterprises generally dare not purchase US soybeans currently but still have time to observe subsequent policy trends. For the demand from October to January of the next year, due to policy uncertainties, enterprises have not made large - scale purchases yet [16][25] - The current purchase progress of Brazilian soybeans for the August shipment is 85%, 35% for the September shipment, and 20% for the October shipment. If US soybeans are not purchased, it is expected that the domestic supply from November to December can still be maintained [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the current challenges and dynamics within the poultry and soybean meal industry, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and inventory pressures [1][4][30] - The price of chick seedlings has dropped significantly, falling below 2 yuan per chick by the end of June, compared to around 3 yuan at the end of May, indicating a rapid decline in the breeding sector [1] - The processing segment of poultry products is currently the most profitable, although sales are weak, leading to high inventory levels, especially in the Shandong region [1][10] Group 2 - The oil mills are experiencing inventory pressure, with some urging customers to pick up products to avoid storage issues, and the operating rate is expected to remain high in Shandong by mid to late July [2][44] - The daily usage of soybean meal has increased, primarily due to formula adjustments rather than an increase in feed sales, with expectations for stable usage in July compared to June [3][33] - The soybean meal inventory pressure is anticipated to rise significantly by mid-July, with feed factories reluctant to accept contracts due to a preference for higher protein content soybean meal [4][10] Group 3 - The procurement attitude for soybean meal for the period from October to January remains cautious due to policy uncertainties, with expectations that the basis may weaken compared to July [5][34] - The current soybean meal addition ratio in chicken feed has increased to 30%, up from 25% in late March, indicating a shift in feed formulation strategies [7][49] - Seasonal characteristics of poultry feed sales show a peak demand period from May to October, with a notable increase expected in August and September [8][45] Group 4 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts shows a disparity, with approximately 80% of contracts for July to September sold, while only about 20% for October to January [13][41] - The quality of Brazilian soybeans has been noted to be lower this year, affecting the protein content and overall supply dynamics [14][22] - The overall supply of soybean meal is expected to be sufficient in October, but the tightness of supply in December to February remains to be observed [28][46] Group 5 - The market for soybean meal is characterized by a balance of high supply and high demand, with expectations for better demand in the third quarter compared to the fourth [30][33] - The pressure on soybean meal prices is expected to be limited in July, but caution is advised for August due to potential fluctuations [31][54] - The current physical inventory of soybean meal is around 7 days, with Shandong showing higher inventory levels exceeding 10 days, indicating a passive accumulation trend [42][44]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of supply and demand factors, with supply pressure easing but demand data not performing well [3]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [4]. - Copper prices are currently oscillating strongly, mainly supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out, followed by a strategy of shorting on rebounds [10]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and soybean oil prices are all expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [14][15][17][18]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. - Coking coal prices are generally bearish due to loose supply - demand and weakening demand [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, but actual production growth is less than expected. Canadian wildfires have led to a reduction in production, and US oil production is expected to decline [3]. - Demand: Market risk appetite has rebounded, but refined oil demand and inventory data are not good, and the negative impact of the global trade war on the economy has not been fully reversed [3]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate [3]. Urea - Supply: There are temporary inspections in some factories, and daily production has decreased, but the daily production is still around 200,000 tons [4]. - Demand: Market sentiment is weak, agricultural demand is not strong, and compound fertilizer factories are mainly focused on inventory reduction [4]. - Price trend: The price dropped by nearly 2% today, and the market sentiment is expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future [4]. Copper - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses. Other regions' copper inventories have decreased due to steel tariffs [9]. - Demand: Apparent consumption has decreased, downstream开工率has declined, and demand is the main factor restricting price increases [9]. - Price trend: Currently oscillating strongly, supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under tariff expectations [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase in June, and the fundamental situation is still one of oversupply [10]. - Demand: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the support for prices is limited [10]. - Price trend: Oscillating around 60,000 yuan, with a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The starting rate has rebounded, and the scheduled production in June is expected to increase [12]. - Demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has fluctuated, and the demand for road asphalt is restricted by funds [12]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. PP - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, increasing supply [13][14]. - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, new orders are limited, and inventory pressure is high [13][14]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: Downstream开工率is at a low level, and new orders are slow to follow up, with high inventory pressure [15]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - Supply: The starting rate has increased, and social inventory is still high [16][17]. - Demand: Downstream开工率has declined, and export is affected by policies. Demand improvement is limited [16][17]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans has increased, and the soybean crushing volume is at a historical high, with high inventory [18]. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and downstream stocking willingness is low [18]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [19][20]. - Demand: The weather in the United States is favorable for soybean growth, and the supply outlook is good [19]. - Price trend: Expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The customs clearance volume remains high, and the total inventory is at a high level [21]. - Demand: Steel mills' demand for coking coal has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened [21]. - Price trend: Generally bearish [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market maintains a pattern of loose supply and demand, with limited upside potential for price rebounds. The soybean oil market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to the game of multiple long and short factors, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future. The palm oil market is also expected to oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate. The rapeseed oil market will likely oscillate in the short - term, and the inventory is expected to gradually decrease if the supply tightens as expected [5][93] Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of May 23, the East China spot price was 2900 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2509 contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 09 - 50 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The increase in soybean arrivals and the rise in oil mill operating rates led to a weakening of spot prices, but the market rebounded from the bottom, limiting the decline in spot prices. The basis continued to weaken [5][7] b. Supply End - The May UDSA report on US soybeans lowered the carry - over stocks for the 2025/26 season by 295 million bushels, providing strong support for US soybeans. Currently, the weather in the US soybean - growing areas is favorable, and as of May 16, 66% of the sowing has been completed, suppressing the upside of US soybean prices. Brazil's supply is increasing, and the price is weak, but there is strong support below. Globally, soybean production is abundant, and the price is weak under the pattern of loose supply and demand. In China, the pressure of soybean arrivals from May to July is still high, and the supply - demand situation is gradually becoming loose. In the long - term, Sino - US trade frictions may lead to an increase in import costs and a decrease in supply, and domestic soybeans will enter a de - stocking cycle after September [5] c. Demand End - In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. With the high cost - performance of soybean meal and the advantage of the pig - grain price ratio, the demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year. As of May 16, the national soybean inventory in oil mills rose to 5.8683 million tons, a 9.71% increase from the previous week and a 33.95% increase year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory continued to rise slightly to 121,700 tons, a 20.26% increase from the previous week and an 80.47% decrease year - on - year [5] d. Cost End - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1030 cents/bushel, and the cost of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is 915 cents/bushel. Calculated according to the exchange rate of 7.2, the premium of 140 cents, and the oil - meal ratio of 2.6, the cost of domestic soybean meal from May to July during the Brazilian soybean supply season is 2850 yuan/ton, and it rises to 2970 yuan/ton from August to September. The overall crushing profit is maintained between 0 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton, at a high level in the same period of history [5] e. Market Summary and Strategy - With the low carry - over stocks of new - crop US soybeans, the bottom support for US soybeans is strengthened. As the key growing period approaches, the probability of a rebound from the low level increases. From May to July in China, the arrivals increase, and the soybean and soybean meal inventories enter an accumulation cycle, with prices weakening due to loose supply - demand. In the medium - to - long - term, the cost increases and the strong expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended that in the short - term, the M2509 operate in the range of [2850, 3000], and enterprises can conduct basis point pricing on dips and sell on rallies. In the medium - to - long - term, go long at the lower edge of the range [5] 2. Oils a. Periodic and Spot - Futures End - As of the week of May 23, the palm oil main 09 contract rose 22 yuan/ton to 8006 yuan/ton, the soybean oil main 09 contract rose 20 yuan/ton to 7774 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil main 09 contract rose 114 yuan/ton to 9391 yuan/ton. In terms of spot, the 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 50 yuan/ton to 8600 yuan/ton, the fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 70 yuan/ton to 8120 yuan/ton, and the fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang rose 100 yuan/ton to 9410 yuan/ton. The basis of palm oil in Guangzhou rose 28 yuan/ton to 594 yuan/ton, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang fell 90 yuan/ton to 346 yuan/ton, and the basis of rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang fell 14 yuan/ton to 19 yuan/ton [93][95] b. Palm Oil - The MPOB April report showed that the Malaysian palm oil inventory increased to 1.87 million tons, higher than market expectations, which was bearish. In May, the month - on - month growth rate of Malaysian palm oil exports gradually declined. However, the increase in production also slowed down significantly. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, attention should be paid to whether the inventory accumulation rate in May will slow down. Indonesia raised the export tax in June, while Malaysia lowered it. It is expected that Malaysian palm oil will oscillate in the short - term, with the 08 contract operating in the range of 3800 - 4000. In China, palm oil arrivals will increase significantly from May, and the inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 359,700 tons, and is expected to continue to accumulate slowly [93] c. Soybean Oil - The EPA denied the news of a 1.36 - billion - gallon biofuel blending exemption for small refineries, and the biodiesel policy turned positive again. The excessive rainfall in the core soybean - growing areas of Argentina and the heavy rainfall forecast in the US Midwest may provide support for US soybean prices. However, Trump's proposal to impose a 50% tariff on EU goods on June 1st, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the pressure of the old - crop soybean harvest in South America limit the upside of US soybean prices. It is expected that the US soybean 07 contract will oscillate in the range of 1050 - 1080 in the short - term. In China, the monthly average soybean arrivals from May to July are expected to reach about 10 million tons, and the soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 656,300 tons, with a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future [93] d. Rapeseed Oil - The crushing and export demand for Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season remain strong, and the inventory of old - crop rapeseed continues to decline. The sowing of new - crop rapeseed in Canada is accelerating, and there are no obvious weather problems for now. The US House of Representatives passed the revised 45Z bill, which is beneficial to the demand for rapeseed - based biodiesel. It is expected that ICE rapeseed will oscillate in the short - term. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historically high level of 870,000 tons, with a large short - term supply pressure. However, the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed is still ongoing, and the arrivals of rapeseed in the second quarter are expected to be halved year - on - year. If the supply tightens as expected, the inventory is expected to gradually decrease [93] e. Weekly Summary and Strategy - Currently, the fundamentals of the oil market have no prominent long - short contradictions, and the short - term trend is oscillatory. In the medium - to - long - term, the arrivals of soybeans and palm oil will increase in June, dragging down the overall oil market. In the third quarter, due to the decrease in the sowing area of new - crop soybeans and rapeseed in North America and possible weather speculation, the oil market is expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to pay attention to the operating ranges of 7500 - 8000, 7800 - 8200, and 9200 - 9500 for the 09 contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil respectively, and be cautious about shorting on rallies. In terms of arbitrage, the strategy of widening the spread between the 09 contracts of soybean - palm oil and rapeseed - palm oil can be followed in the long - term [93]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA May Supply and Demand Report has a bullish impact, with the estimated US soybean stock-to-consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.68%, continuing to decline from the 24/25 season [5]. - The China-US joint statement led to a significant reduction in the tariff on Chinese imports of US soybeans, but there is still no profit in importing US soybeans, so the actual impact is limited [5]. - The focus of soybean meal should be on the cost narrative and domestic supply - demand. The US soybean planting progress has reached 48%, which is relatively fast in recent years. The Brazilian premium has been oscillating weakly recently, and its further decline space should be monitored [5]. - China is facing the pressure of concentrated arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, the customs clearance time has been shortened. This week, soybean meal inventory continued to decline slightly but is still low. Overall, there is no speculation driver in US soybean planting, and China is digesting the pressure of spot supply and Brazilian selling pressure, so the market is expected to be volatile [5]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions are presented, including Dalian, Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, Dongguan, Zhanjiang, Fangcheng, and Guangdong. For example, the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Zhangjiagang (against the main contract) is - 6 [3]. 3.2 Spread Data - The spread data between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, including spot spread in Guangdong and the spread of the main contract. For instance, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 690 [4]. 3.3 Inventory Data - Inventory data such as Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, and national major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are shown in the form of time - series charts from 2020 - 2025 [4]. 3.4开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Conditions) - The operation rate and soybean pressing volume of national major oil mills from 2020 - 2025 are presented in the form of time - series charts [4].