1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the soybean meal market, prices are expected to be strong in the near - term due to de - stocking expectations and cost support, but the upside is limited. The 03 contract is likely to perform strongly, while the 05 contract may be weak under the background of South American bumper harvest expectations and domestic supply - demand relaxation. The pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness will continue [7]. - In the oils market, in the short term, domestic three major oils have bottomed out and rebounded, but the upside space is limited. In the long run, with the intensification of Malaysia's production cuts, India's pre - Ramadan stocking, the advancement of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel plan, and the implementation of the US biofuel policy in the first quarter of 2026, it will help the three major oils to bottom out and strengthen again [73][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Price and Basis - As of December 26, the spot price in East China was 3050 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week; the M2605 contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis was 05 + 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [7][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - Globally, the 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 422 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.39 million tons. Brazil's production is 175 million tons, while the US and Argentina's production decreases year - on - year. In China, the 2025/26 soybean import volume is expected to be 112 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons year - on - year. From December to March, domestic soybean arrivals will decrease, and soybeans and soybean meal will enter the de - stocking cycle. From April to September, domestic soybean arrivals will remain high at over 9 million tons [7]. 3.1.3 Demand - Current soybean meal demand remains high. Pig and poultry inventories are at a high level, and the good cost - performance of soybean meal supports its demand. In the 51st week of 2025, the national oil mill soybean inventory was 7.2236 million tons, a decrease of 171,200 tons from the previous week, a decrease of 2.32%. The soybean meal inventory of national oil mills increased to 1.1371 million tons, an increase of 40,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 3.66% [7]. 3.1.4 Cost - The cost of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans is 950 cents/bushel. The domestic soybean meal cost from May to August is estimated to be 2580 yuan/ton, and from July to September, it will rise to 2760 yuan/ton. The domestic import cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 3000 yuan/ton. Brazilian soybean crushing profit is around 30 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Price and Basis - As of the week of December 26, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 276 yuan/ton to 8568 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 124 yuan/ton to 7836 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 302 yuan/ton to 9046 yuan/ton. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil also increased, and the basis of each oil showed different changes [74][76]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - In Malaysia, from December 1 - 25, palm oil exports increased, and production decreased. It is expected that the inventory accumulation in December will be less than previously estimated, but it is still difficult to start de - stocking. In China, palm oil purchases from December to January are relatively small, and the market demand is average, limiting the de - stocking speed. As of the week of December 19, domestic palm oil inventory rebounded to 700,000 tons [74]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - In the US, although there are reports of large - scale Chinese purchases of US soybeans, the actual purchase volume announced by USDA is much lower. In South America, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to reach a record high of 180 million tons. The US soybean futures price is under pressure, but it is limited by the planting cost and potential bio - diesel policies. In China, soybean arrivals have decreased seasonally since October, and soybean oil inventory decreased to 1.1235 million tons as of the week of December 19 [74]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - Currently, the domestic rapeseed oil market shows a state of strong current situation and weak future expectations. Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports are at a medium - level. The first shipment of Australian rapeseed is expected to be pressed in January 2026, and the supply is expected to gradually ease. As of the week of December 19, domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 303,000 tons [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an "Oscillation" rating for the investment view of the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) market [5]. 2. Core View of the Report - The Chinese procurement demand supports the US market. The domestic market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the weather changes in South America. If there is weather speculation, it will be beneficial for the single - side and spot basis. If there are no significant weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to face pressure under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil from December to January, which will drag down the pricing of domestic bean meal. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release situation [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The USDA's current forecast for the 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September. CONAB predicts that the new - crop production in Brazil in 2025/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 22, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 78%. As of November 26, the soybean planting progress in Argentina was 36%. Short - term weather has no obvious drought problems, but attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern on rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina in December. From December to January, domestic soybean and bean meal are expected to seasonally destock. The domestic bean meal supply in the first quarter of next year is uncertain, and the reserve release situation needs to be monitored. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China is expected to shrink. The global rapeseed production is expected to have a recovery increase in 2025/26 [5]. - **Demand**: For livestock and poultry, the short - term high inventory is expected to be maintained, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports the feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. Bean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness. Recently, the downstream trading of bean meal is normal, and the提货 performance is good, while the downstream trading and提货 of rapeseed meal are cautious [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic soybean and bean meal inventories are at historically high levels in the same period, the destocking of bean meal inventory is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still relatively large. It is expected to accelerate destocking from December to January. The number of days of bean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is continuously destocking [5]. - **Basis/Spread**: The basis is neutral [5]. - **Profit**: The crushing profit of new - crop soybean purchases in China is good, and the crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed is also good [5]. - **Valuation**: From the perspective of the basis, the recent price of the bean meal futures is at a moderately high valuation level [5]. - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. The China - US soybean procurement agreement has been reached, and China has begun to purchase US soybeans successively, but the quantity and time of purchases are uncertain, which provides support for the US market [5]. - **Investment View**: The market is expected to oscillate. The trading strategy is a single - side oscillation and a positive spread between M3 and M5. Attention should be paid to policies and weather [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of粕类 - **Inventory - to - Use Ratio**: In November, the stock - to - use ratio of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased, and the global soybean stock - to - use ratio also decreased. The stock - to - use ratio of rapeseed decreased [28][34]. - **Planting Progress**: As of relevant dates, the soybean planting rate in Brazil and the planting progress in Argentina are as mentioned above. There are also data on the global rapeseed production, production distribution, and Brazilian planting progress, etc. [5][38][44]. - **Domestic and Foreign Market Data**: The US soybean domestic crushing profit has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume are presented in the data. The US soybean export sales progress is slow, and there are also data on soybean CNF premiums, import soybean gross profit, Canadian rapeseed CFR prices, and import crushing profit. The domestic soybean and rapeseed import volumes, inventory data, oil mill operating rates, crushing volumes, bean meal and rapeseed meal trading volume,提货 volume, price difference data, feed production volume, and livestock and poultry breeding profit and related data are also provided [47][54][58].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's November supply - demand report for 2025/26 US soybeans showed a slight downward adjustment in yield, exports, and carry - over, with less - than - expected bullish impact. Brazilian new - crop production is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. 11 - 12 months in China are expected to see a decline in soybean meal inventory, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The purchase progress for 12 - 1 month shipments is slow, and the supply gap in Q1 next year is uncertain [7]. - In terms of demand, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high, with cautious downstream transactions and good提货 performance [8]. - China's soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level. If there are no severe weather problems, the market is expected to start trading on the selling pressure of new South American crops from December to January, and it is recommended to short the 05 contract on rallies [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: On November 18th, the basis of the Dalian soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) was 19, up 22. The basis in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Dongguan, etc. showed various values and changes [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 120, down 14 [4]. - **Spread Data**: The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 610, up 16 [5]. 3.2 Supply - related Data - **US Supply**: The USDA's November report adjusted the 2025/26 US soybean yield from 53.5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre, kept the crush at 2.555 billion bushels, reduced exports from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and cut the carry - over from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels [7]. - **Brazilian Supply**: The predicted 2025/26 Brazilian new - crop production is 177.6 million tons. As of November 8th, the sowing rate was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% last week, 66.1% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and the impact of the weak La Nina weather pattern [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: From November to December, domestic soybean meal is expected to see inventory reduction, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The purchase progress for 12 - 1 month shipments is slow, and the supply gap in Q1 next year is uncertain [7][8]. 3.3 Demand - related Data - **Livestock and Poultry Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies aim to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect future supply [8]. - **Soybean Meal Demand**: The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is high. Recently, downstream transactions have been cautious, but the提货 performance has been good [8]. 3.4 Inventory - related Data - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, and are expected to decline from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The November USDA supply and demand report was less bullish than expected, and the market is expected to correct. The domestic soybean purchase margin is poor, and the domestic market is expected to follow the trend of the US market in the short term. Future attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans and the trend of new - crop basis [10]. - In November, the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8][10]. - The US - soybean supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the next USDA supply - demand report [8]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The shipping progress for the December - January period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [10]. - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect the long - term supply [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On November 14, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang decreased by 11. The 43% soybean meal spot basis (against the main contract) in different regions such as Tianjin, Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, etc. showed different degrees of decline. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong increased by 19, and the M1 - 5 basis increased by 25 [6]. - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong is 300, and the price difference between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 602, with an increase of 23 [7]. International and Inventory Data - As of November 1, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 47.1%, compared with 34.4% last week and 53.3% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 54.7% [9]. - The USDA currently estimates the US - soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 2025/2026 season at 6.9%, with the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre potentially having downward adjustment space and the export expectation having upward adjustment space [8]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8][10]. Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The US - soybean supply - demand balance sheet for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be tight. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The shipping progress for the December - January period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [8][10]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream transactions of soybean meal in the near term are relatively cautious, and the提货 performance has declined [10].

Report Information - Report Name: Yangtze River Futures Meal and Oil Weekly Report - Date: November 17, 2025 - Researcher: Ye Tian [1] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - For soybean meal, the loss of crushing profit supports its strong operation. The US soybean supply - demand tightens, and domestic soybean meal is expected to fluctuate widely with the US soybean, but its price is expected to be slightly stronger due to profit losses and the de - stocking cycle [6][7]. - For oils, the reports (USDA11 and MPOB10) have a neutral - bearish impact, and the upward rebound of futures prices is limited. In the long - term, the market should focus on potential positive factors such as biodiesel policies and weather conditions [81][82]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal a. Period and Spot Market - As of November 14, the East China spot price was 3020 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton weekly; the M2601 contract closed at 3092 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton weekly; the basis was 01 - 70 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Before the release of the US soybean supply - demand report, the US soybean price rose sharply but then fell back due to lower - than - expected yield cuts. Domestic soybean meal followed the cost increase, but the spot supply pressure continued, and the basis weakened [7][9]. b. Supply - The USDA November report showed that the US soybean price dropped to 53 cents/bushel, with the yield higher than expected and the ending stocks reduced to 290 million bushels. As of November 8, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 58.4%. In China, the November soybean arrival is normal, but the 12 - January purchases are slow due to profit losses, with a strong de - stocking expectation [7]. c. Demand - In 2025, the domestic breeding profit improved, with high livestock and poultry inventories, supporting a feed demand increase of over 7%. The soybean meal addition ratio increased, and the fourth - quarter demand is expected to increase by over 5%, corresponding to a monthly soybean crushing volume of over 9 million tons. As of the latest data, the national soybean inventory increased to 761.95 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory decreased to 99.86 million tons [7]. d. Cost - The 25/26 US soybean planting cost dropped to 1150 cents/bushel, and the bottom price is expected to be around 100 cents/bushel. Based on certain calculations, the domestic soybean meal cost is 3070 yuan/ton [7]. e. Market Summary and Strategy - The US soybean is expected to fluctuate widely, and domestic soybean meal is expected to be slightly stronger. The strategy suggests range - bound operations for the M2601 contract and for spot enterprises to sell the basis on rallies and roll long positions [7]. 2. Oils a. Period and Spot Market - As of the week of November 14, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices showed different trends. Palm oil was the weakest due to the MPOB report and poor export data, while rapeseed oil was the strongest due to supply concerns [82][83]. b. Palm Oil - The MPOB October report showed an increase in both production and demand, with the ending stocks rising to 2.46 million tons. The SPPOMA data indicated a 2.16% decline in production from November 1 - 10. However, exports from November 1 - 10 decreased by 9.5 - 12.3%. In China, the 10 - November palm oil purchases are similar to 2024, and the inventory is expected to gradually accumulate [82]. c. Soybean Oil - The USDA November report had a neutral - bearish impact, with a reduction in both inventory and export. The US soybean futures are expected to be under pressure, and the domestic soybean oil inventory decreased slightly. In the long - term, the soybean supply is expected to be relatively sufficient, limiting the de - stocking speed [82]. d. Rapeseed Oil - Due to concerns about the continued tight supply of rapeseed before the arrival of Australian rapeseed in late November and the Canadian biodiesel policy, the domestic rapeseed oil is in a slow de - stocking process. However, considering the potential improvement in China - Canada relations, the upward space for rapeseed oil is limited [82]. e. Weekly Summary and Strategy - In the short - term, the upward rebound of domestic oils is limited. The strategy suggests not chasing the rise and taking a long - on - dips approach for the 01 contracts. For arbitrage, pay attention to the long - 1 - short - 5 spread for rapeseed oil and the short - 1 - long - 5 spread for palm oil [82].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The 9 - month USDA supply - demand report's downward adjustment of US soybean yield was less than expected, while demand - side压榨 was increased and exports were further decreased. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 year was 300 million bushels, slightly higher than market expectations, bringing some negative impacts. However, the US soybean balance sheet remains tight, with the good - excellent rate dropping to 63% this week, and it may continue to decline due to less rainfall and high temperatures in the producing areas [7]. - In September, the expected arrival of soybeans in China is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is expected to be in a inventory - accumulation cycle. In October, domestic soybeans are expected to start destocking, and the supply - demand gap of soybean meal in the first quarter of next year depends on Sino - US policy changes. On the demand side, short - term high inventory of pig and poultry farming supports feed demand, but policy - oriented control of pig inventory and weight is expected to affect long - term pig supply. Soybean meal has high cost - effectiveness and high pick - up volume [8]. - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean inventory has reached a high level; oil - mill soybean meal inventory has increased but is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected to be in an inventory - accumulation cycle in the short term; the inventory days of feed enterprises' soybean meal have slightly decreased. Overall, due to the expectation of Sino - US tax cuts and the impact of the pig production capacity control symposium, M01 increased positions and volume declined today, the crushing profit deteriorated, and cost - side expectations provide support at the bottom, with an overall expected volatile trend [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - **Soybean Meal Main Contract Basis (Zhangjiagang)**: On September 17, basis data for different regions and time periods are provided, such as Dalian with a value of 58 (25/26), Tianjin with 18, and different values for other regions and time intervals [5]. - **43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: Basis data for different regions and time periods are presented, including negative values like - 22 in some cases [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: Data for different regions and time periods are given, such as 129 in Guangdong with a change of - 14 [5]. 3.2 Spread Data - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Spot spread in the factory area is 300, and the spread on the main contract is 542 [6]. 3.3 International and Inventory Data - **Soybean CNF Premium and Profitability**: Brazilian soybean CNF premium and import soybean crushing profit data are provided, with the Brazilian premium having different values in different months and a change of - 6 in one case, and the crushing profit being 293 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory Data**: Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, major oil - mill soybean inventory, feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days, and major oil - mill soybean meal inventory are presented for different years from 2020 - 2025, showing trends of increase and decrease in different periods [6]. 3.4开机 and Pressing Data - **Oil - Mill Operating Rate and Soybean Pressing Volume**: Data on the operating rate (%) and soybean pressing volume (10,000 tons) of major oil mills from 2020 - 2023 are provided, showing different trends over time [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybean meal, the supply - demand of US soybeans is tightening, leading to an upward shift in the price center. In the short term, domestic soybean meal follows the price increase of US soybeans, but its growth is limited by inventory accumulation expectations and the strength of oils. In the medium - long term, as domestic inventory enters the depletion cycle in late October, the price is expected to continue to be strong [8]. - For oils, although there are short - term risks of high - level corrections due to factors such as reduced market enthusiasm for long - positions and increased vessel purchases, the overall long - term trend remains positive due to factors like tight supply - demand in the origin of palm oil and US soybean new crops [91]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market Trend Review - As of August 8, the spot price in East China was 2990 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton week - on - week. The M2601 contract closed at 3137 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was 01 - 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. The US soybean price rose to around 1030 cents/bushel due to tightened supply - demand [8][10]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Price: Spot prices in North China, East China, and Shandong all increased, with price differences and basis prices showing various changes. The closing price of the main soybean meal contract increased by 2% [12]. - Supply: The flowering rate, pod - setting rate of US soybeans increased, while the excellent - good rate decreased by 1%. The monthly arrival volume increased by 20%. The purchase progress of shipping schedules from October to December showed different degrees of increase [12]. - Demand: The inventory of soybean meal decreased by 4%, and the提货 volume increased by 4% [12]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - Weather: In the next two weeks, the main producing areas of US soybeans will face local drought in Iowa and Indiana. In the long - term, there is still a risk of periodic drought [51]. - Cost: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 1141 cents/bushel, and the estimated bottom price is around 990 cents/bushel. The domestic import cost has increased, and the estimated bottom price of domestic soybean meal is 3130 yuan/ton [8]. - Purchase and Arrival: The purchase of Brazilian vessels from August to September is active, but there is no purchase of US soybeans after September. The supply may be interrupted from October to January, and the price may rise periodically after November [62][72]. 3.2 Oils 3.2.1 Market Trend Review - As of the week of August 15, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices fluctuated significantly. The price first rose due to positive supply - demand reports and the preliminary review of anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed, and then fell due to market sentiment release and new vessel - purchase news [91][93]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - Supply: The production and export volume of Malaysian palm oil showed different trends. The domestic inventory of palm oil, soybean, and rapeseed showed different degrees of change [98]. - Demand: The domestic trading volume of palm oil and soybean oil decreased, while the domestic rapeseed oil提货 volume increased [98]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - Malaysia: The MPOB July report showed that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil was lower than expected. The export demand in August rebounded strongly, and it is expected to remain strong in the short term [91]. - Indonesia: From January to May, production and demand increased. The inventory in May was at a historical low, and the supply - demand is expected to remain in a tight balance in 2025 [114][115]. - India: In July, the total import volume of vegetable oils increased slightly. As of the week of August 1, the total inventory of oils increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. There is still inventory - building demand before the October Diwali Festival [123].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market in Shandong presents a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting. The demand in the third quarter is expected to be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations [19][22]. - The profit in the poultry breeding sector is poor, while the profit in the pig - breeding sector is still available. The feed demand for broilers, pigs, and ducks in Shandong is expected to be promising in the third quarter [13][19]. - Due to policy uncertainties, companies have not made large - scale purchases for the demand from October to January of the next year [6][25]. 3. Summary According to Different Enterprises Enterprise 1 - In the broiler industry chain, the price of chicks has dropped rapidly, with large - scale enterprise chick prices falling below 2 yuan per chick at the end of June (about 3 yuan per chick at the end of May). The hatching link still has a small profit, the slaughter link has a slight loss, and the deep - processing link of broiler food has the highest profit but poor sales [2]. - The feed cost shows that the corn price has increased, and the soybean meal price has decreased. The breeding profit of 817 broilers is not good [2]. - The daily consumption of soybean meal has increased month - on - month, mainly due to formula adjustment rather than feed sales growth. It is expected to remain stable in July compared with June, and if the formula remains unchanged, the consumption will continue to increase month - on - month in August and September, mainly due to the growth of feed sales [4]. - The current addition ratios of soybean meal are 6% in duck feed, 30% in broiler feed, and 8 - 10% in pig feed (this ratio was raised in mid - to late May). Without miscellaneous meal substitution in the short term, this high addition ratio is expected to last until September - October [4]. Enterprise 2 - The addition ratio of soybean meal in broiler feed has increased significantly from 25% at the end of March to 30% currently, and the current formula has reached the upper limit. The future growth of soybean meal demand mainly depends on the growth of feed demand (sales) [7]. - The export of poultry feed has obvious seasonal characteristics, with the sales peak from May to October (especially from August to October) and the off - season from October to December [8]. - It is expected that the company's feed production this year will be the same as last year [9]. Enterprise 3 - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is about 80%, while that from October to January of the next year is only about 20% [12]. - The oil yield of new - season Brazilian soybeans is 22% (about 19% in previous years), and the protein content is lower. Now it mainly produces 45% protein soybean meal instead of 46% [12]. - In the breeding link, except for pig breeding, the profits of other sectors such as poultry and aquaculture are not good [13]. Enterprise 4 - The overall crushing profit of oil mills this year is acceptable. Currently, enterprises generally dare not purchase US soybeans but still have time to observe subsequent policy trends [16]. - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is relatively fast, with relatively small sales pressure. However, the sales progress of forward contracts (after October) lags behind that of foreign - funded oil mills [18]. - It is expected that the feed demand for broilers, pigs, and ducks in Shandong will be promising in the third quarter. The soybean meal market will show a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting, but the price is unlikely to rise significantly due to the poor profit and high inventory in the downstream poultry industry [19]. Enterprise 5 - As of the end of June, the soybean purchase progress was too fast. The soybean crushing profit in the third quarter is good. It is expected that the expected arrival volume of soybeans from August to October will continue to be adjusted upward, and the expected terminal inventory pressure of soybeans in September will also be adjusted upward [21]. - The domestic supply of soybean meal in October is expected to be sufficient. The tightness of the spot supply from December to January of the next year and from February to March of the next year still needs to be observed [22]. - The current soybean meal market shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. It is expected that the demand in the third quarter will be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to rise or fall significantly [22]. Enterprise 6 - It is expected that the soybean meal market will show a situation of high supply and high demand coexisting, and the demand for soybean meal from August to September is expected to increase compared with July [24]. - Due to policy uncertainties, large - scale purchases for the demand from October to January of the next year have not been made. The potential risk is that the possible cargo - right risk from December to January of the next year may drive up the price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract [25]. Enterprise 7 - The month - on - month increase in soybean meal consumption is mainly due to formula adjustment. The current addition ratio of soybean meal in chicken feed is 25% [27]. - The feed sales in June were better than those in May, and it is expected to be the same in July as in June, with a month - on - month increase in August. August - September is the peak season for aquaculture feed sales, and the sales of pig feed are also expected to be good [28]. - The forward (October to January of the next year) purchase ratio of soybean meal is low [30]. Enterprise 8 - Currently, some oil mills in Shandong have started to urge customers to pick up goods to prevent the risk of warehouse overflow, but there is no widespread and substantial warehouse overflow phenomenon yet [32]. - The sales contracts of oil mills in July have been basically sold out, the sales progress from August to September is about 30%, and the sales progress from October to January of the next year is about 10%. The raw material procurement of downstream customers in June has been basically completed [32]. - The later demand for soybean meal is expected to improve month - on - month. The demand from August to September in the third quarter should be better than the current level. The demand for poultry feed and aquaculture feed may weaken from October to January of the next year, but the demand for pig feed is expected to increase [33]. Enterprise 9 - At present, the egg - laying chicken breeding is in a loss state, mainly due to high inventory. Feed enterprises have reduced the use of by - products and increased the addition ratio of soybean meal due to the high prices of corn and other feed by - products [35]. - The current spot price of soybean meal is cost - effective, and it is expected that the spot price of soybean meal will have strong support below 2800 yuan per ton. The position pressure in June was not large, but there may be some pressure in early July [35]. - It is expected that the M2601 contract may be relatively strong, mainly driven by the potential concern about the tight cargo - right from December to January of the next year [35].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to have high supply and high demand coexisting. The demand in the third quarter is expected to be better than that in the fourth quarter, and the price is unlikely to rise or fall significantly. The overall price of soybean meal this year is expected to be at a relatively low level with high inventory, and the price fluctuation may show a mild decline or slow increase. The real potential positive driving force may appear from December to January of the next year [19][22][36] - For the demand from October to January of the next year, due to policy uncertainties, enterprises have not made large - scale purchases yet. There are potential risks of tight cargo rights from December to January of the next year, which may push up the price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract [6][25] Summary by Related Catalogs Broiler Industry Chain Profit - Chicken苗 prices have dropped rapidly, with large - scale enterprise chicken苗 prices falling below 2 yuan per piece at the end of June (about 3 yuan per piece at the end of May). The hatching link still has a small profit, while the slaughter link has a small loss. The deep - processing link of broiler food has the highest profit but poor sales volume. The frozen product sales are poor, and the inventory pressure is high. The 817 broiler breeding profit is not good [2] - Except for pig breeding, the profits of other sectors in the breeding link, such as poultry and aquaculture, are not good [13] Oil Mill Dynamics - Some oil mills have account - inventory situations and start to urge customers to pick up goods. The oil mill operating rate in Shandong is expected to be at a high level by mid - July or the end of July [3] - This year, the overall oil mill crushing profit is okay. Some small - scale crushing plants that were shut down before have resumed production. The sales progress of foreign - funded oil mills is similar to that of the same period last year, while the sales progress of private oil mills is relatively slow [16][29] Soybean Meal Usage and Addition Ratio - Currently, the daily soybean meal usage has increased month - on - month, mainly due to formula adjustment rather than feed sales growth. It is expected that the daily soybean meal usage in July will remain stable compared with June. If the formula remains unchanged in August and September, the usage is expected to continue to increase month - on - month, with the increase mainly coming from the growth of feed sales [4] - The current soybean meal addition ratios are: 6 - 8% in duck feed, 30% in broiler feed, and 8 - 10% in pig feed (this ratio was raised in mid - to late May). Without miscellaneous meal substitution in the short term, this high addition ratio is expected to be maintained until September - October. If wheat is used to replace corn, the impact on soybean meal demand is limited, with only about 1% reduction in usage [4] Inventory and Sales - It is expected that the soybean meal inventory pressure will increase significantly in mid - July. Feed mills, as buyers of the M2507 soybean meal futures contract warehouse receipts, are reluctant to take delivery because current feed enterprises prefer to use 46% protein soybean meal [5] - The sales progress of soybean meal contracts from July to September is about 80%, while the sales progress from October to January of the next year is only about 20% [12] - The soybean meal market currently shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The sales of oil mills in July have basically been sold out, the sales progress from August to September is about 30%, and the sales progress from October to January of the next year is about 10% [22][32] Procurement - Enterprises generally dare not purchase US soybeans currently but still have time to observe subsequent policy trends. For the demand from October to January of the next year, due to policy uncertainties, enterprises have not made large - scale purchases yet [16][25] - The current purchase progress of Brazilian soybeans for the August shipment is 85%, 35% for the September shipment, and 20% for the October shipment. If US soybeans are not purchased, it is expected that the domestic supply from November to December can still be maintained [22]