11月17日，沪银期货显著走强，主力合约最高报15477.00元/千克，现涨幅达4.48%，续创历史新高，今年迄今累计涨超106%。 12月15日芝加哥商业交易所(CME)：白银期货成交量为125079手，较上个交易日减少80235手。未平仓合约为154451手，较上个交易日增加196 手。 机构观点 五矿期货：昨日公布的美国关键经济数据全面低于预期，令市场交易后续联储货币政策的进一步宽松，金银价格短线得到支撑。美国11月新增非 农就业人口数为6.4万人，高于预期的5万人，但十月份新增非农就业数据则录得10.5万人的下跌。从10月和11月非农就业数据来看，建筑业撑起商 品生产就业，而医疗保健几乎是服务业新增就业的唯一支撑，政府就业由于关门影响扰动较大。美国非农就业数据偏弱提振降息预期，但银价在 前期传闻哈塞特提名过程中已录得大幅上涨，当前白银策略上建议维持观望。 兴业期货：白银长线上行驱动未变。但短线白银做多策略已较为拥挤，资金趋于谨慎，海外最大白银ETF连续两个交易日流出。白银短线做多性 价比低于黄金。策略上，沪银02合约前多配合止盈线持有，新单等待外盘白银"多逼空"行情结束、沪银价格波动率下行后的买入机会 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weak US non - farm employment data boosts the expectation of interest rate cuts. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 940 - 989 yuan/gram, and the reference operating range of the main Shanghai silver contract being 13918 - 15000 yuan/kilogram. For silver, it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude as the silver price has risen significantly during the previous rumor of Hassett's nomination [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.14% to 974.22 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 0.24% to 14731.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4334.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 63.81 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.15%, and the US dollar index was reported at 98.21 [2] - The key US economic data announced yesterday was comprehensively lower than expected, which supported the short - term prices of gold and silver as the market traded on the further easing of the Fed's subsequent monetary policy [2] - The number of new non - farm employment in the US in November was 64,000, higher than the expected 50,000, but the new non - farm employment data in October recorded a decline of 105,000 [2] 3.2 Employment Data Analysis - From the non - farm employment data in October and November, the construction industry supported employment in commodity production, while healthcare was almost the only support for new employment in the service industry. Government employment was greatly disturbed by the government shutdown. The overall employment pattern was weak in terms of sub - items, which was in line with Powell's statement that the labor market was at risk [3] - In the construction industry, the number of new employment was 28,000 in November, a decrease of 1,000 in October, and an increase of 25,000 in September, making it the largest new item in commodity production in the past three months. In contrast, the manufacturing industry's employment performance was poor [3] - In service employment, the new employment in finance and information recorded negative values for two consecutive months. The employment in the travel and accommodation industry before Christmas still decreased by 12,000 in November. The healthcare industry could play a supporting role, with more than 50,000 new employees for three consecutive months and 65,000 in November [3] - Government employment was greatly disturbed. The government shutdown in October led to a decrease of 157,000 in employment, and there was a slight decrease of 4,000 in November [3] 3.3 Key Data Summary of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: The closing price of the active COMEX gold contract was 4332.20 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 0.05%; the trading volume was 206,500 lots, an increase of 2.44%; the position was 432,900 lots, a decrease of 8.27%; the inventory was 1119 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The closing price of LBMA gold was 4324.20 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 0.19%. The closing price of the active Shanghai gold contract was 971.42 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.19%; the trading volume was 388,800 lots, a decrease of 32.31%; the position was 343,000 lots, a decrease of 2.35%; the inventory was 91.30 tons, unchanged. The precipitation funds were 5.3304 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.52%. The closing price of AuT + D was 964.67 yuan, a decrease of 1.27%; the trading volume was 69.96 tons, a decrease of 10.06%; the position was 218.85 tons, an increase of 1.06% [6] - **Silver**: The closing price of the active COMEX silver contract was 63.80 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 0.52%; the position was 144,500 lots, a decrease of 5.71%; the inventory was 14116 tons, a decrease of 0.16%. The closing price of LBMA silver was 62.98 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 1.39%. The closing price of the active Shanghai silver contract was 14,666.00 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of 0.86%; the trading volume was 2,697,600 lots, a decrease of 31.64%; the position was 755,900 lots, a decrease of 2.29%; the inventory was 890.72 tons, an increase of 3.84%. The precipitation funds were 2.9934 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.13%. The closing price of AgT + D was 14,649.00 yuan, a decrease of 0.99%; the trading volume was 1064.44 tons, an increase of 15.82%; the position was 3727.118 tons, a decrease of 2.45% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lower - than - expected US PPI data released yesterday has further boosted the market's expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, providing strong support for the prices of gold and silver [2]. - After the data release, US President Trump expressed a strong demand for interest rate cuts, believing that a 200 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed could save the US $600 billion in fiscal expenditures, which further increased the market's expectation of marginal easing by the Fed in the second half of the year [3]. - The US budget deficit in May reached $316 billion, with budget expenditures hitting a record high for a single month. Although customs tax revenue increased significantly due to the Trump administration's tariff policy, it still cannot cover the large - scale fiscal deficit. The current deficit situation in the US supports the strengthening of the gold price [3]. - It is recommended to go long on precious metals at dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 756 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8545 - 9500 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Market Data - **Precious Metal Prices**: On June 12, 2025, Shanghai gold (Au(T + D)) rose 0.75% to 780.36 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag(T + D)) fell 1.26% to 8770 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.90% to $3406.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.14% to $36.41 per ounce [2][6]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.36%, and the US dollar index was 97.8655, down 0.79% [2][4]. Fundamental Data - **US PPI Data**: In May 2025, the US PPI year - on - year was 2.6% (in line with expectations), and the month - on - month was 0.1% (lower than the expected 0.2%). The core PPI year - on - year was 3% (lower than the expected 3.1% and the previous value of 3.2%), and the month - on - month was 0.1% (lower than the expected 0.3%) [2]. - **Employment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31, 2025, was 248,000, higher than the expected 240,000 [2]. - **Budget Deficit**: The US budget deficit in May 2025 was $316 billion. Customs tax revenue in May reached $23 billion, a nearly four - fold increase from the same period last year, but still unable to cover the large - scale fiscal deficit. The US Treasury Secretary expects the deficit - to - GDP ratio for this fiscal year to be between 6.5% and 6.7% [3]. Trading and Position Data - **Gold**: The trading volume of COMEX gold increased by 12.38% to 224,100 lots, and the position decreased by 4.94% to 415,900 lots. The trading volume of SHFE gold increased by 36.23% to 427,900 lots, and the position increased by 2.95% to 434,400 lots [6]. - **Silver**: The trading volume of COMEX silver increased by 20.62% to 1,085,400 lots, and the position increased by 10.70% to 163,300 lots. The trading volume of SHFE silver increased by 64.55% to 805,090 tons, and the position increased by 0.89% to 3,511,988 tons [6]. Spread Data - **Gold Spread**: The SHFE - COMEX gold spread was - 3.64 yuan/gram, and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 2.77 yuan/gram [51]. - **Silver Spread**: The SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 398.11 yuan/kilogram, and the SGE - LBMA silver spread data is also provided in the report [51].