Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On August 27, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.12% to 781.16 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.52% to 9,305 yuan/kg [4] - The event of Trump dismissing Fed Governor Cook has further fermented. Political pressure has strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, thus supporting precious metal prices. On the other hand, the official implementation of a 50% tariff on India by the US and Trump's tariff remarks have slightly increased market risk aversion. However, Trump's statement that the US has completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, along with strong US core durable goods order data in July, highlighting US economic resilience and providing support for the US dollar index, have limited the upside space for gold prices. In the short term, precious metal prices are still supported. For gold, it is recommended to hold long positions or go long on pullbacks. For silver, it is expected to follow gold in the short term, but with signs of cooling in the stock market and commodities, short - term fluctuations need attention, and the upside height and duration in the medium term should be treated with caution [4] - In the medium - to - long term, due to expectations of Fed rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified large - scale games, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with continued gold purchases by global central banks, the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 27, 2025, London gold spot was at $3,376.92/ounce, London silver spot was at $38.43/ounce, COMEX gold was at $3,426.60/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $38.47/ounce. Compared with August 26, the price of London gold remained unchanged, London silver fell 0.7%, COMEX gold rose 0.1%, and COMEX silver fell 0.6%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed corresponding changes, with AU2510 remaining unchanged, AG2510 falling 0.5%, AU (T + D) remaining unchanged, and AG (T + D) falling 0.6% [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On August 27, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 35 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 6.00 yuan/gram, and the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 582 yuan/kg. Compared with August 26, the price spreads showed different degrees of change, with the gold TD - SHFE active price spread falling 7.6%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread rising 12.9%, the gold internal - external price spread rising 21.4%, and the silver internal - external price spread falling 4.7%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 83.95, and the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 89.08, both showing slight increases [3] Position Data - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR held 959.92 tons, up 0.15% from August 25. The silver ETF - SLV held 15,274.6947 tons, down 0.09% [3] - **Non - commercial Positions in COMEX**: As of August 19, 2025 (weekly data), the non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 4.46%, the non - commercial short positions increased by 6.92%, and the net long positions decreased by 7.36%. For COMEX silver, the non - commercial long positions increased by 2.79%, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 1.96%, and the net long positions increased by 5.15% [3] Inventory Data - On August 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 37,503 kg, unchanged from August 26. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,165,498 kg, up 3.39% from August 26. The COMEX gold inventory on August 26 was 38,578,730 troy ounces, up 0.04% from August 25, and the COMEX silver inventory on August 26 was 508,778,300 troy ounces, unchanged from August 25 [3] Related Market Data - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: From August 25 to August 27, 2025, the US dollar index fell 0.11%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 3.22%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.19%, the VIX fell 0.47%, the NYMEX crude oil price rose 0.41%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.21% [4] Market News and Analysis - Trump announced the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, who refused to resign and will sue. The Fed stated that only "just cause" can remove a governor and will abide by court decisions. The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed [4] - In July, the preliminary monthly change in US durable goods orders was - 2.8%, a second consecutive month of negative growth. However, the preliminary monthly change in core durable goods orders excluding aircraft and non - defense capital goods increased by 1.1%, exceeding expectations and indicating US economic resilience [4] - Trump said that the US has completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and a 50% tariff on India officially took effect on August 27 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a pattern of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon on Thursday, with the main contracts of stock index futures rising and falling differently. The market is influenced by domestic and overseas news and capital flows. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at an appropriate time and maintain a moderately bullish attitude [2][3][6]. - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The bond market is under pressure from the equity market, but considering financial and inflation data, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [7][9]. - The prices of precious metals rose first and then fell. The market is affected by factors such as the US PPI data and the attitude of the Federal Reserve towards interest rate cuts. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and hold long positions in silver or construct a bullish spread strategy using silver put options [10][12][13]. - The main contract of container shipping futures fluctuated. Due to the high growth rate of container capacity and weak European demand, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [14][15]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; alumina is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term; aluminum is expected to be under pressure at high levels; zinc and tin are expected to fluctuate; nickel and stainless steel are expected to adjust within a range; lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in a bullish range [19][21][23]. - The prices of black metals also showed different trends. Steel prices are supported by limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions; iron ore prices are expected to follow the trend of steel prices, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see; coking coal and coke prices have seen their futures prices peak and fall back, and it is recommended to take profit on speculative positions and wait and see [41][44][46]. - For agricultural products, the long - term outlook for meal products is positive, but short - term profit - taking is recommended; the price of live pigs is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of the slaughter volume; the upward movement of corn prices is limited, and attention should be paid to short opportunities; the price of sugar is expected to be bearish [53][55][56]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the A - share market rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures rose and fell differently, and most of the basis was at a discount [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the State Council issued a decision to modify the regulations on the entry and exit of foreigners. Overseas, the US Treasury Secretary made statements on issues such as drug tariffs, the sale of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac equity, and interest rate cuts [3][4]. - **Capital Flow**: On August 14, the trading volume of the A - share market reached 2.28 trillion. The central bank conducted 1287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan on the same day [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell put options on MO2509 at an appropriate time and maintain a moderately bullish attitude [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and long - term bonds performed weaker [7]. - **Capital Flow**: The central bank conducted 1287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan on August 14. It is expected to conduct 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month reverse repurchase operations on August 15 to maintain capital stability [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: In late July, China's M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans, deposits, and social financing scale in the first seven months was significant [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing. The 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75% [9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The US PPI in July rebounded significantly year - on - year, and the first - time unemployment claims in the week of August 9 were slightly lower than expected. The prices of precious metals rose first and then fell. The international gold price fell 0.63%, and the international silver price fell 1.32% [10][12]. - **Future Outlook**: Although the market sentiment has been affected by trade agreements, the US economic data in July has deteriorated, and there is still a demand for hedging. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and hold long positions in silver or construct a bullish spread strategy using silver put options [12][13]. - **Capital Flow**: The weak US economy stimulates the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the allocation funds have a high interest in precious metals. The positions of gold and silver ETFs are expected to increase [13]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures (EC) - **Spot Quotations**: As of August 15, the spot quotations of major shipping companies were provided [14]. - **Container Shipping Index**: As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index decreased. As of August 8, the SCFI composite index also decreased [14]. - **Fundamentals**: As of August 11, the global container capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI in July was 50.9, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [14]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [15]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and the average premium increased. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [16]. - **Macro**: The US CPI in July increased moderately, and the market expected the probability of an interest rate cut in September to increase. Trump signed an extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days [16][19]. - **Supply**: The TC of copper concentrate increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to decrease slightly in August [17]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased and increased respectively. The domestic demand was resilient, but it was under marginal pressure in Q3 [18]. - **Inventory**: COMEX and LME inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78000 - 79500 [19]. Alumina - **Spot**: On August 14, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [20]. - **Inventory**: On August 14, the port inventory decreased, and the registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [20]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term, with the main contract operating in the range of 3000 - 3400 [21]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the average premium increased [22]. - **Supply**: In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased [22]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries increased slightly [22]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory also increased [23]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 20000 - 21000 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On August 14, the spot prices of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [24]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and it is expected to remain stable in August [24]. - **Demand**: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the market trading activity decreased [24]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and the inventories in some areas were close to full [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract referring to 19400 - 20400 [25]. Zinc - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [25][26]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate remained unchanged. The domestic refined zinc production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to increase further from January to August [26]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high [27]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22000 - 23000 [28]. Tin - **Spot**: On August 14, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the downstream procurement increased slightly [29]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports in June decreased. The actual tin ore output in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter [29][30]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased in June. The LME inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of refined nickel increased, and the monthly production is expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory was high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory decreased [32]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 120000 - 126000 [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was stable, the price of nickel iron increased, and the price of ferrochrome was expected to be stable [34]. - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in August increased slightly [35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the futures inventory increased [35]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, with the main contract referring to 13000 - 13500 [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [37]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it is expected to increase in August. The supply is relatively sufficient, but the growth rate has slowed down [38]. - **Demand**: The demand is optimistic, and the demand in August is expected to increase [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly last week, with the upstream inventory decreasing and the downstream and other links replenishing inventory [39]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and lightly go long at low prices. The price is expected to fluctuate in a bullish range around 85,000 [40]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel price decreased, and the basis strengthened [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - **Supply**: From January to July, the iron element production increased. In August, the production increased compared with July, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation from August to September [42]. - **Demand**: From January to July, the apparent demand for five major steel products was basically the same year - on - year. The domestic demand decreased, and the foreign demand increased. Currently, the apparent demand has decreased [42]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory increased significantly, mainly in the hands of traders [43]. - **View**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3200 yuan for rebar [44]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [45]. - **Futures**: The prices of iron ore futures decreased [45]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [45]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly [45]. - **Supply**: This week, the global iron ore shipment and arrival volume decreased [46]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily average dredging volume increased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price peaked and fell back, and the price of some coal varieties in the spot auction loosened [47]. - **Supply**: The coal mine's operating rate decreased, and the output decreased slightly [47][48]. - **Demand**: The coking plant's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream demand for iron water was high but may decrease in August [48]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, and the demand for downstream replenishment weakened [48]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [49][50]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price peaked and fell back, and the sixth - round price increase of coke was implemented. There is still an expectation of a seventh - round price increase [51][52]. - **Profit**: The coke enterprise's profit improved [51]. - **Supply**: The coking plant's operating rate increased due to the price increase [52]. - **Demand**: The demand for iron water was high but may decrease in August [52]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, and the downstream still had a demand for replenishment [52]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore [52]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was 100 tons [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The US new - crop soybean export sales were higher than expected, and Brazil's soybean production, crushing volume, and export volume were all revised upwards [54]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA monthly report supported the US soybean price, and the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed supported the rapeseed meal price. However, short - term profit - taking occurred, and it is recommended to close the position and wait and see. The overall trend is upward [55]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price fluctuated strongly. The profit of different breeding models changed, and the average slaughter weight increased [56][57]. - **Market Outlook**: The current supply and demand are weak. The group's slaughter volume is expected to increase in August, and the later pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to blindly short the far - month 01 contract, and attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [57]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price in some

贵金属日报 2025-08-07 贵金属 沪金跌 0.29 %，报 781.96 元/克，沪银涨 0.22 %，报 9180.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 0.02 %， 报 3432.80 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.22 %，报 37.99 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.22%，美元指数报 98.19 ； 市场展望： 美联储官员讲话均偏向鸽派，同时特朗普对于新任联储主席的选拔进行进一步表态，市场对于 后续联储宽松货币政策的预期增强，金银价格得到支撑。 旧金山联储主席戴利表示劳动力市场已经走软，其进一步放缓是不合适的，联储不需要等到经 济数据形势完全明朗再采取行动。针对近期美国劳工统计局所公布的大幅低于预期的非农就业 数据，美联储理事库克认为需要谨慎看待经济数据，7 月的就业数据令人担忧，经济在发生转 折时经济数据会产生重大修正。鹰派官员、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利同样表态偏鸽，他 表示经济开始放缓，短期开始利率调整可能是合适的。 对于库格勒辞职所形成的空缺理事席位，特朗普团队正在推动任命一位临时理事来填补空缺， 而这将为特朗普选择新任联储主席留出时间，特朗普表示将在两到三日 ...

贵金属期现日报 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | 国债期货价差日报 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年8月6日 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | 20019608 熊客健 | | | 种类 | | 日期 2025-08-05 | | 品种 TS墓差 | IRR (%) 1.4589 | | 最新值 0.0136 | 较前一交易日变化 0.0213 | 上市以来百分位数 18.70% | | | | | 2025-08-05 | | TF基差 | 1.6782 | | 0.0031 | 0.0020 | 45.90% | | | 基差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025-08-05 | | 1 将关 | 1.6364 | | 0.0273 | -0.0937 | 56.00% | | | | | 2025-08-05 | | TL基差 | 1. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economic and inflation data released last night were resilient, putting continuous pressure on precious metal prices. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.37%, and the U.S. dollar index was at 100.01. The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and in line with the previous value. The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000. The Chicago PMI in July was 47.1, significantly higher than the expected 42 and the previous value of 40.4 [2]. - Powell's stance in the interest rate meeting was hawkish. He believed that the subsequent monetary policy path depends on economic data, emphasizing the importance of "seizing the right timing." The market reduced its expectations for the Fed's easing policy after the meeting. The CME interest rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points only in the October meeting. The Fed's monetary policy stance has turned hawkish, and precious metal prices will face strong short - term correction pressure. Given the uncertainty of subsequent employment data and the stances of key voting members, it is recommended to temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8662 - 9290 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Price Changes - Shanghai gold rose 0.12% to 770.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.37% to 8935.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.13% to 3344.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% to 36.78 dollars/ounce [2]. - Au(T + D) fell 0.38% to 766.58 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) fell 2.25% to 8960.00 yuan/kilogram. London gold fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce, and London silver fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [4]. 3.2 Gold - Related Data - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract rose 0.43% to 3342.30 dollars/ounce, the trading volume fell 22.67% to 154,600 lots, the open interest rose 9.12% to 489,400 lots, and the inventory rose 0.42% to 1203 tons [6]. - LBMA gold: The closing price fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract fell 0.45% to 770.28 yuan/gram, the trading volume rose 27.56% to 324,300 lots, the open interest rose 1.32% to 429,800 lots, the inventory rose 6.52% to 35.64 tons, and the settled funds flowed in by 0.86% to 52.966 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Silver - Related Data - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 1.04% to 36.79 dollars/ounce, the open interest rose 1.29% to 173,700 lots, and the inventory rose 0.17% to 15,714 tons [6]. - LBMA silver: The closing price fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 2.00% to 9008.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 65.29% to 1,394,000 lots, the open interest fell 4.58% to 797,400 lots, the inventory fell 0.01% to 1208.03 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 6.49% to 19.394 billion yuan [6]. 3.4 Other Market Data - The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.37%, and TIPS rose 1.02% to 1.98%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.08% to 100.0489, and the offshore RMB fell 0.49% to 7.2545 [4]. - The Dow Jones Index fell 0.74% to 44,130.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6339.39, the Nasdaq Index fell 0.03% to 21,122.45, and the VIX Index rose 8.01% to 16.72. The London FTSE 100 fell 0.05% to 9132.81, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.02% to 41,069.82 [4]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spread Data (July 31, 2025) - Gold: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 3.41 yuan/gram (14.75 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 1.16 yuan/gram (4.98 dollars/ounce) [50]. - Silver: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 463.30 yuan/kilogram (2.00 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 461.74 yuan/kilogram (1.99 dollars/ounce) [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of precious metals is under pressure due to the easing of overseas geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, and the resilience of US economic data [2]. - The Fed's monetary policy stance is expected to turn dovish in the July interest - rate meeting this week, and the Fed's interest - rate cut this year will exceed market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, with a focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9075 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.31% to 770.84 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) dropped 0.27% to 9200.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.06% to 3311.90 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.25% to 38.32 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, and the US dollar index was 98.63 [2]. - The prices of various precious metal products showed different changes, such as Au(T + D) dropping 0.26% to 771.58 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) dropping 1.98% to 9186.00 yuan/kilogram [4]. Market Outlook - Overseas geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties have eased, with the cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia taking effect. US tariff policies are gradually being determined, and the US economic data shows resilience, with the July Dallas Fed business activity index at 0.9, higher than expected and the previous value [2]. - The Fed's July interest - rate meeting is expected to have a dovish stance, and there is a possibility of an unexpected interest - rate cut. International silver prices tend to be strong when the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are gradually released [3]. Data Statistics - The report provides detailed data on gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and their changes and historical quantiles in different markets (COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc.) [6]. - It also presents various data charts, such as the relationship between gold and silver prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, and the near - far month structure of gold and silver futures [8][11][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The U.S. labor market remains resilient as the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending July 19, 2025, was 217,000, lower than the expected 226,000 and the previous value of 221,000. - Despite Powell completing his remaining term, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to a more accommodative stance. Given that international silver prices tend to perform strongly when the Fed's stance is dovish, the current precious metals strategy recommends maintaining a bullish outlook, with a focus on long opportunities in silver. The reference trading range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 809 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.78% to 778.08 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) fell 0.55% to 9369.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold declined 0.16% to 3368.10 dollars/ounce, while COMEX Silver rose 0.27% to 39.33 dollars/ounce [2]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.43%, and the U.S. Dollar Index was at 97.47. Among global stock indices, the Dow Jones Index decreased by 0.70%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.07%, the NASDAQ Index rose by 0.18%, the London FTSE 100 climbed 0.85%, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index advanced 1.59% [2][4]. 3.2 Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold Data**: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) dropped 0.77% to 3371.30 dollars/ounce, with a 19.07% decline in trading volume to 20.67 million lots, and a 1.22% increase in open interest to 44.85 million lots. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) decreased 1.79% to 778.74 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 17.55% to 43.78 million lots, and open interest fell 3.92% to 42.44 million lots. The inventory increased 1.74% to 29.36 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 5.64% to 52.875 billion yuan [6]. - **Silver Data**: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.59% to 39.29 dollars/ounce, open interest (CFTC latest reporting period: weekly) increased 5.33% to 17.15 million lots, and inventory decreased 0.08% to 15483 tons. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) dropped 1.12% to 9386.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 19.57% to 159.93 million lots, and open interest fell 3.04% to 96.46 million lots. The inventory increased 0.02% to 1188.72 tons, and the settled funds outflow was 4.12% to 24.444 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Price - Related Charts and Analysis - **Gold**: There are multiple charts showing the relationship between COMEX Gold price and the U.S. Dollar Index, real interest rates, volume, open interest, and the near - far month structure of COMEX Gold and Shanghai Gold, as well as the price difference between London Gold and COMEX Gold, and Au(T + D) and Shanghai Gold [8][11][16][18]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, there are charts depicting the relationship between COMEX Silver price and volume, open interest, the near - far month structure of COMEX Silver and Shanghai Silver, and the price difference between London Silver and COMEX Silver, and Ag(T + D) and Shanghai Silver [27][29][31]. 3.4 Fund Position and Price Relationship - There are charts showing the relationship between the net long positions of COMEX Gold and Silver managed funds and their prices, indicating the influence of fund positions on precious metals prices [40]. 3.5 ETF Holdings - The total holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 2.29 tons to 957.09 tons, and the total holdings of the SLV Silver ETF remained unchanged at 15207.82 tons [4]. 3.6 Internal - External Price Difference - **Gold**: On July 24, 2025, the SHFE - COMEX price difference was 0.74 yuan/gram (3.23 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 1.64 yuan/gram (7.12 dollars/ounce). - **Silver**: The SHFE - COMEX price difference was 346.62 yuan/kilogram (1.51 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA price difference was 372.20 yuan/kilogram (1.62 dollars/ounce) [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Information not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed is expected to turn dovish in the July FOMC meeting, confirm the pace of rate cuts in the second half of the year, and cut rates by 25 basis points in the September FOMC meeting. In the context of the Fed's looser monetary policy expectations, focus on long - position opportunities in silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 801 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver is 8638 - 9300 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **Precious Metals Prices**: Shanghai Gold rose 0.26% to 779.66 yuan/gram, Shanghai Silver rose 0.71% to 8845.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX Gold rose 0.07% to 3362.20 dollars/ounce, COMEX Silver rose 0.12% to 36.77 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.3%, and the US dollar index was 96.74 [2] - **Other Market Indicators**: Au(T + D) fell 0.22% to 770.33 yuan/gram, Ag(T + D) fell 0.77% to 8737.00 yuan/kilogram. The London Gold price fell 0.40% to 3335.70 dollars/ounce, and the London Silver price fell 0.55% to 36.31 dollars/ounce. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 0.06% to 947.66 tons, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 0.29% to 14869.01 tons [4] Market Outlook - The weak US ADP employment data released yesterday strengthened market expectations for the Fed's loose monetary policy, which is a positive factor for precious metal prices. The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, significantly lower than the expected increase of 95,000 and the previous increase of 29,000. Powell emphasized the Fed's data - dependence in decision - making, and the ADP data reflected the weakening of the US labor market. The focus is on the US non - farm payrolls change in June to be released tonight, with the market expecting an increase of 110,000, lower than the previous 139,000. If the non - farm data is lower than expected again, market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts will further increase [2] Key Data of Gold and Silver - **Gold**: COMEX Gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.56% to 3368.70 dollars/ounce, but trading volume fell 21.25% to 129,500 lots, and open interest fell 1.42% to 435,000 lots. LBMA Gold's closing price fell 0.40% to 3335.70 dollars/ounce, and inventory remained unchanged at 1152 tons. SHFE Gold's closing price (active contract) fell 0.01% to 776.04 yuan/gram, trading volume rose 8.70% to 303,900 lots, open interest fell 0.83% to 410,400 lots, and inventory rose 0.02% to 18.46 tons. Au(T + D) closing price fell 0.22% to 770.33 yuan/gram, trading volume fell 23.89% to 29.77 tons, and open interest rose 3.54% to 225.29 tons [6] - **Silver**: COMEX Silver's closing price (active contract) rose 1.50% to 36.79 dollars/ounce, open interest fell 5.53% to 174,600 lots, and inventory fell 0.20% to 15,557 tons. LBMA Silver's closing price fell 0.55% to 36.31 dollars/ounce. SHFE Silver's closing price (active contract) fell 0.72% to 8,747.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume fell 4.76% to 627,700 lots, open interest fell 2.21% to 841,400 lots, and inventory fell 0.01% to 1,338.66 tons. Ag(T + D) closing price fell 0.77% to 8,737.00 yuan/kilogram, trading volume rose 26.04% to 521.32 tons, and open interest rose 0.35% to 3,142.008 tons [6] Price Structure and Spread - **Gold**: The internal - external spread between SHFE and COMEX was - 4.41 yuan/gram (- 19.14 dollars/ounce), and the spread between SGE and LBMA was - 4.65 yuan/gram (- 20.18 dollars/ounce) on July 2, 2025 [50] - **Silver**: The internal - external spread between SHFE and COMEX was 302.10 yuan/kilogram (1.31 dollars/ounce), and the spread between SGE and LBMA was 321.91 yuan/kilogram (1.40 dollars/ounce) on July 2, 2025 [50]

数据公布后，美国总统特朗普再度表达强烈的降息需求，他认为联储降息 200 个基点能为美 国节省 6000 亿美元的财政支出，市场进一步加大对于联储下半年边际宽松的预期。 贵金属日报 2025-06-13 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 沪金涨 0.65 %，报 786.02 元/克，沪银跌 0.53 %，报 8787.00 元/千克；COMEX 金涨 0.05 %， 报 3404.00 美元/盎司，COMEX 银涨 0.26 %，报 36.39 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.36%，美元指数报 97.78 ； 市场展望： 昨日公布的美国 PPI 数据低于预期，再度推升下半年联储宽松的货币政策预期，令金银价格 得到有力支撑。美国 5 月 PPI 同比值为 2.6%，符合预期，环比值为 0.1%，低于预期的 0.2%。 美国 5 月核心 PPI 同比值为 3%，低于预期的 3.1% 和前值的 3.2%，环比值为 0.1%，低于 预期的 0.3%。同时， ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | Z0016628 2025年6月6日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | | | 价差 较前一日变化 历史1年分位数 | 品种 | 最新值 | | | 全历史分位数 | | F期现价差 | | -25.56 | 0.79 | 23.70% | 16.60% | | 期现价差 | H期现价差 | -18.13 | -0.90 | 16.30% | 10.00% | | IC期现价差 | | -46.37 | 3.84 | 21.70% | 23.10% | | IM期现价差 | | -65.41 | 3.76 | 80.00% | 16.30% | | 次月-当月 | | -38.80 | 0.40 | 3.60% | 7.80% | | 季月-当月 | | -76.00 | -3.00 | 7.30% | 12.40% | | 远月-当月 | | -113.40 | -1.20 | 6.90% | 15.00% | ...