格隆汇1月29日丨瑞达期货(002961.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，期货公司目前不能自营交易期货品种， 不存在所谓做多黄金白银。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised. Stock index volatility centers are expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held. Precious metal market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. For various industrial and agricultural products, different trends and investment strategies are analyzed based on their respective fundamentals [6][10][14] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. Due to the current low Treasury bond yields, the steady recovery of the Chinese economy, rising core inflation, and increased risk appetite, Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure, and caution is needed [5][6] Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. With the increase in market sentiment and incremental funds, the stock index volatility center is expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the gold - buying behavior of central banks are favorable for the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise in precious metals and the significant increase in speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [12][13][14] Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last trading day, they showed weak oscillations. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the market is entering the demand off - season. Although the supply pressure is relieved, the inventory is slightly higher than last year. Prices may continue the weak oscillation, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16] - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, it slightly corrected. The demand for iron ore is low, the supply situation is complex, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, but there are signs of stabilizing. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [18] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, they slightly rebounded. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak. The futures have stopped falling and rebounded, but the rebound space may be limited. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [21] - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron contracts fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost is fluctuating in a narrow range at a low level. The overall supply is still in excess, but the short - term supply may be reduced. After the price decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23][24] Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. Speculators increased their net long positions in crude oil futures and options, the number of active oil and gas rigs increased, and the US imposed new sanctions on Iran. Crude oil is expected to continue rising, and investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [25][26][27] - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, it rose significantly. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the market expected short - to - medium - term supply to tighten. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [28] Chemicals (including Polyolefins, Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber, PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda) - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to be in a supply - demand tight situation this week. Due to rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls, prices may continue to rise in the short term. The downstream demand is stable, and investors can look for long - position opportunities [29][30] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It was mainly supported by the rising price of butadiene and high device operating rates, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to factors such as butadiene price trends and downstream demand recovery [31][32][33] - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The overseas supply is shrinking, and the cost is supported, but the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34][35] - **PVC**: Last trading day, it rose. Although it is in the traditional demand off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing [36][37][39] - **Urea**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The short - term price will maintain a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level [40][41] - **PX**: Last trading day, it rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the operating rate is declining, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate in the low - level range [42][43] - **PTA**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has little change, the demand is seasonally decreasing, but the cost and market sentiment boost the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory accumulation in January and February [44] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is shrinking due to increased domestic and overseas device overhauls, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream polyester is in seasonal maintenance. It is expected to have limited upward space in the short term, and investors should operate carefully [45][46] - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the inventory is at a low level, and it is mainly trading based on the cost - side logic. It is expected to oscillate with the raw material price, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [47] - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded, the supply is expected to shrink during the Spring Festival, the export is increasing, and it is mainly driven by the cost side. It is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors can participate cautiously on dips [48][49] - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the price is stable for the time being, and it lacks substantial support in the short term. Caution is advised [50][51] - **Glass**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the inventory is increasing, the market demand is weak, but the manufacturers' shipments are good due to pre - holiday stocking. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [52][53] - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, it rose. The winter seasonal characteristics are significant, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. Affected by the alumina price fluctuation, the pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate, but caution is still needed due to the unchanged fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches [54][55] Agricultural Products (including Pulp, Carbonate Lithium, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apples, Pigs, Eggs, Corn & Starch, Logs) - **Pulp**: Last trading day, it fell. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, the downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but rational treatment is needed [56][57] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is at a high level, the consumption is improving, the inventory is decreasing, and there is strong support for the price. However, the short - term volatility may increase, and risk control is necessary [58][59] - **Copper**: Last trading day, it rose. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate supply is tight. However, the demand is suppressed by high prices, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [60][61] - **Aluminum**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The alumina market has an oversupply situation, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is inelastic. The high price suppresses the demand, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. It is expected to adjust at a high level [62][63][64] - **Zinc**: Last trading day, it rose. The domestic refined zinc production is increasing, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [65][66] - **Lead**: Last trading day, it fell slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production capacity of primary lead is restricted, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [67][68] - **Tin**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is generally tight due to the slow resumption of production in Wa State and the crackdown on illegal mines in Indonesia. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and risk control is needed [69] - **Nickel**: Last trading day, it fell. The global geopolitical situation is tense, the Indonesian nickel quota is reduced, and the cost is rising. However, the stainless - steel consumption is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation [70] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, they rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, and the domestic soybean import is slowing down. The supply of soybean is relatively loose, the cost support is weakening, the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is slightly improving. Investors can look for long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [71][72] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose, supported by the price of related oils and crude oil and favorable export data. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after the price correction [73][74][75] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price fell. The Chinese tariff on Canadian rapeseed will be reduced. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is increasing. Investors can consider closing the spread - widening positions between soybean and rapeseed products [76][77] - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell. The USDA report is favorable for the market, and the medium - term external cotton price is expected to be strong. The domestic cotton harvest is good, but the inventory increase is lower than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand has resilience. The medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to be strong, but the domestic market is under pressure in the short term. Investors can buy on dips after the price correction [78][79][80] - **Sugar**: The domestic and foreign sugar futures oscillated. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic market will face the dual supply pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is recommended to short on rallies [82][83][84] - **Apples**: The domestic apple futures oscillated weakly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be strong, and investors can go long on dips [86][87][88] - **Pigs**: The main contract fell. The supply is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter, and the market is waiting for the marginal change in consumption during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to wait and see [90][91] - **Eggs**: The main contract rose. The egg supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January, but the supply - side improvement is emerging. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [92] - **Corn & Starch**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. The northern port inventory is low, the spot price is strong, and the domestic corn is basically in balance of production and demand. The demand for corn starch is slightly improving, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to follow the corn market [93][94] - **Logs**: The main contract rose slightly. The supply is shrinking at a high level, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is entering the pre - holiday end, and the cost is rising. The overall supply - demand is tending to be loose, but the cost support is strengthening [95][96][97]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Picton Investments warns that if President Trump appoints a Federal Reserve chair perceived as too compliant, the bond market will quickly "discipline" the U.S. [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The bond market is expected to react negatively to a Federal Reserve chair who is seen as overly submissive to political pressures [1] - Precious metals are highlighted as effective hedges against political volatility [1] Group 2: Social Media Influence - There is a noted correlation between the volume of posts on Truth Social and the trends in what is termed "debasement trade," which includes investments in gold, silver, and commodity-based hedging strategies [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In early 2026, the economic performance needs to be clarified, and domestic and foreign policies remain the focus. In 2025, there were concerns in both the US and Chinese economies. In the US, the focus was on the weak employment market and potential consumption risks, while in China, domestic demand was weak in Q3, and the recovery in Q4 under policy guidance needed to be observed. In the new year, the policy highlights affecting the US economy are the continuation of monetary easing and the intensity of subsequent fiscal spending. In China, the focus is on the effectiveness of stabilizing domestic demand and the policy efforts in promoting investment to stop falling and expanding the consumer market. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates slightly more than twice in 2026, currently a preventive rate cut. However, if the employment market weakens more than expected, such as a continuous rise in the unemployment rate, it will prompt the Fed to accelerate the rate - cut pace. Unconventional risks in 2026 come from the attitude of the newly - appointed Fed chair, and the impact of monetary policy in Q1 mainly depends on economic performance. There is an expectation of monetary policy easing in Q1, but it remains to be seen. In China, policies to stabilize growth will be gradually introduced at the beginning of the year. The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in national subsidy funds for consumer goods trade - in programs in 2026 is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. Based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. The risk is that previous consumption demand has been released to some extent, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year growth rate. Later, attention should be paid to the scale of the government's on - budget fiscal deficit, ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, and local government special bonds during the Two Sessions. At the beginning of the year, policy expectations are strong, but lacking specific data support, and overall sentiment is expected to fluctuate but remain relatively stable [2]. - Precious metals are fluctuating at high levels, and the upward trend has not been broken. Before the New Year's Day holiday, the prices of precious metals, gold and silver, fluctuated significantly, mainly due to some long - positions leaving the market and the adjustment of margins for COMEX gold and silver. After the holiday, with the increase in risk - aversion sentiment and investors re - entering the market, precious metal prices continued to rise in early January, and the previous high at the end of December needs to be broken. The grand narrative logic affecting precious metal prices has not changed. Frequent global geopolitical risks, alleviated but not eliminated tariff risks, dollar credit risks, government debt risks, and the Fed's continued rate - cut rhythm still have a bullish impact on precious metals. After a continuous rise in December, the silver price fluctuated significantly before the New Year's Day holiday, and the market sentiment recovered and became stronger again after the holiday. The mid - term upward trend of COMEX gold and silver has not been broken. The support for the COMEX gold main contract is around 4270 - 4300, and for the silver main contract, it is around 69 - 70. In the short term, the market sentiment after the holiday remains bullish, but the risks are that a too - rapid price increase may trigger another margin adjustment for COMEX gold and silver, and there is short - term pressure from the annual weight adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM). Therefore, gold and silver prices still face significant fluctuation risks. In early January, the market is still trading on geopolitical risks and monetary easing expectations. After the geopolitical risks ease, the market's focus will shift to the performance of US economic data and the corresponding changes in monetary policy expectations, which will affect short - term market fluctuations. In conclusion, at the beginning of the year, the gold and silver prices need to re - evaluate the influencing factors to determine the price direction after the short - term consolidation. It is expected to be bullish. The short - term support for the Shanghai gold main contract is 980, and for the Shanghai silver main contract, it is 17000 [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic - The Fed has no significant rate - cut expectation in January, and the market expects the next rate cut to be around March. New economic data in the US will be released in early January, including the ISM manufacturing PMI index, non - farm payroll data, and the unemployment rate. It is expected that the economic data will not affect the January monetary policy decision, and the probability of a rate cut in January is low. However, it will affect the probability of a rate cut in March, which is currently around 50%. As time passes, the expectation of a rate cut in March may change significantly under the influence of US economic data [6]. - US employment data is at risk of weakness, but the degree of weakness needs to be determined. Since the second half of 2025, the US labor market has continued to weaken. The monthly new non - farm payrolls have fluctuated significantly, and there have been months with negative new additions. The unemployment rate has gradually risen from a low of 4.1% in June 2025, especially rising to 4.6% in December. If this unemployment rate persists, it may trigger the Sahm Rule again. Therefore, the unemployment rate performance in the next two months is very important. If it rises further, it may accelerate the Fed's rate - cut pace [9]. - The upward amplitude of inflation is temporarily limited. Although inflation has risen in the second half of 2025, the amplitude is temporarily limited and does not currently affect the monetary policy rhythm. From this perspective, the short - term performance of the employment market has a more significant impact on monetary policy. In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the US CPI and core CPI were 2.7% and 2.6% respectively, down from Q3 [13]. - The US manufacturing PMI index is at a low level. In the second half of 2025, the US manufacturing PMI index was at a low level. Overall, the cyclical pattern of the manufacturing PMI index is less obvious, and it fluctuates at a low level. In terms of inventory, the manufacturing inventory growth rate rebounded slightly in Q3, but the inventory growth rates of wholesalers and retailers declined, and there was no consistent inventory replenishment process. Therefore, it is difficult for the manufacturing industry to have an unexpectedly good recovery. Later, attention should be paid to whether the weakening impact of the previous government shutdown and the continuation of monetary policy easing in Q1 to Q2 will have a positive impact on inventory and the manufacturing industry [16]. - The medium - and long - term interest rates of US Treasury bonds are generally stable and have not declined significantly. Although the Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, driving down the short - term interest rate level, the long - term interest rate level remained generally stable. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest rate fluctuated in a narrow range of 4.0% - 4.2% in Q4. Concerns about the sustainability of the sovereign debt of European and American governments and the weakening of the attractiveness of US Treasury bonds under the dollar credit risk have supported the performance of US Treasury bond interest rates. Precious metals have become more attractive as a safe - haven asset than the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, driving the continuous strength of gold and silver prices in December [20]. - The US dollar index is oscillating at a low level and is expected to gradually break out of the oscillation range. Since the second half of 2025, the US dollar index has stopped its continuous rapid decline and has been oscillating in a narrow range of 96 - 100. Whether the US dollar index can break out of the oscillation range depends on whether the US economy can gradually recover under the influence of monetary easing and whether the US can form a new dominant position to curb the risk of de - dollarization. Currently, such a trend has not been observed, and continuous attention should be paid to the performance of US economic data and whether the US's influence in the Americas region will be further strengthened [24]. - In China, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded in December 2025. After the Sino - US economic and trade relations became tense again in October 2025, the Chinese economy gradually recovered in November and December, and domestic policies also played a role in stabilizing growth. The implementation of policy - based financial tools led to a certain recovery in the manufacturing industry. Based on the December manufacturing PMI index, it is expected that the investment growth rate will recover to some extent. Attention should be paid to the industrial added value, investment, and consumption data to be released in the middle of the month [27]. - It is expected that the total new social financing in 2025 will reach 36 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%. The total new social financing in 2025 was relatively large, expected to reach 36 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the 32.3 trillion yuan in 2024. However, the growth structure and investment rhythm affected the annual economic performance. The increase in social financing in 2025 mainly came from local government bonds, and the year - on - year increase in RMB loans decreased. The overall investment rhythm of social financing also showed a pattern of high in the first half and low in the second half, with the single - month new social financing in August - October significantly less than the same period last year. Attention should be paid to whether the implementation of policy - based financial tools in Q4 2025 will drive an increase in the credit growth rate [31]. - In Q4 2025, the real - estate sales were weak, and housing prices declined month - on - month. The new and second - hand housing transactions in 2025 were significantly weaker than the same period last year, mainly in Q4. Although real - estate stabilization policies were continuously introduced from Q3 to Q4 in 2025, there were no unexpectedly large - scale reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate cuts. The new and second - hand housing transactions declined in both volume and price compared to the same period last year, which will affect the real - estate investment performance at the beginning of 2026. Therefore, promoting infrastructure and manufacturing investment and stimulating consumption have become the focus of policies at the beginning of the year [34]. - In 2026, the first - batch funds for the trade - in program were released, and the annual investment rhythm is expected to be more even. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on Implementing the Large - scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade - in Policy in 2026", officially releasing the national subsidy plan for 2026. The first - batch scale of 62.5 billion yuan to support consumer goods trade - in is less than the 81 billion yuan in the first batch in 2025. However, based on the tone of the "two new policies" set by the Central Economic Work Conference, compared with the situation in 2025 when most of the funds were invested in the first three quarters, especially the first half, the overall investment rhythm in 2026 is expected to be more stable. Therefore, the smaller first - batch investment scale in 2026 does not mean a reduction in the annual scale. The scope of the trade - in subsidy has changed, and the subsidy standards have been further optimized. There is a new subsidy for purchasing new smart products, and the coverage has been expanded to include "elevator installation in old communities" and "off - line commercial facilities such as commercial complexes". However, the number of household appliance subsidy categories has been reduced from 12 to 6. For the subsidy amount, the car subsidy has been adjusted from a fixed amount to a percentage, the single - piece subsidy ceiling for household appliances has been adjusted from 2000 yuan to 1500 yuan, and only first - level energy - consuming products are eligible for the subsidy. The trade - in of electric bicycles and home - improvement consumer goods is no longer included. Overall, the subsidy is still at a certain scale and will help stabilize the consumer market in the new year, in line with the "insisting on domestic - demand - led and deeply implementing the special action to boost consumption" mentioned in the economic work conference. It is expected that the investment rhythm in 2026 will be more stable. The risk is that the implementation of the "two new policies" from the second half of 2024 to 2025 has released some consumption demand, and the high base in the first half of 2025 will put pressure on the year - on - year consumption growth rate [38][39]. - The profits of Chinese industrial enterprises improved from the end of Q3 to the beginning of Q4 in 2025 but weakened again in the second half of Q4. From July to September 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises improved, mainly due to the increase in the prices of some commodities driven by anti - involution. In October, the PPI growth rate did not further increase significantly, and the operating income growth rate of industrial enterprises also declined, affecting the profit performance of industrial enterprises. In November, the single - month profit of industrial enterprises was negative, dragging the cumulative year - on - year growth rate from January to November down to 0.1%, compared with a peak of 3.2% in September [40]. - The RMB has appreciated continuously against the US dollar, and the subsequent economic growth expectation remains the main influencing factor. Since Q4, the long - term Treasury bond yields in both China and the US have remained stable, so the yield spread has not changed significantly. In terms of economic growth expectations, the US has not shown obvious signs of recovery and is performing weakly. In China, investment and consumption have also declined. Therefore, there has been no significant change in economic growth expectations or Treasury bond yield levels. The Fed cut interest rates continuously from Q3 to Q4, while China did not adjust the benchmark interest rate. As a result, the RMB has appreciated against the US dollar, rising from around 7.12 to around 6.98 [43]. Precious Metals - In 2025, the annual increase in the SPDR gold holdings was significant. In 2025, the holdings of the world's largest physical gold fund, SPDR, ended four consecutive years of negative growth since 2021. The annual increase was about 198 tons, and the year - end holdings reached about 1070 tons. The increase in holdings mainly occurred in several stages: from early March to mid - April, from late May to late June, from late September to mid - October, and from late December [47]. - The annual increase in the SLV silver holdings was significant in 2025. The holdings of the physical silver fund, SLV, have had positive growth for the second consecutive year. In 2025, the increase was about 2068 tons, compared with 772 tons in 2024, which is also the largest annual increase in recent years except for 2020 when the increase was 6099 tons. From the perspective of physical fund holdings, the increase in price has boosted investment demand. However, neither the gold nor the silver physical fund holdings have returned to their previous peak levels. Therefore, there is still room for an increase in holdings. The increase in investment demand is usually complementary to the price trend and reinforces each other. Subsequently, the price trend will still affect the holdings, and an increase in holdings will in turn strengthen the price strength [50]. - The gold inventory in futures exchanges remained generally stable in December 2025. In December 2025, the changes in the COMEX futures inventory and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory were both small, showing a slight increase. However, there were significant changes in the inventories of the two exchanges in 2025. At the beginning of the year, due to market concerns about the US imposing tariffs on gold and silver, the inventory was transferred to COMEX. The COMEX inventory rose from about 550 tons at the end of 2024 to about 1247 tons in early October 2025 and then declined, reaching about 1132 tons at the end of December. The SHFE inventory rose from about 15 tons in May 2025 to 97.7 tons at the end of December [52]. - The COMEX silver inventory decreased in December, while the silver inventories in the SHFE and the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) increased slightly. The rapid increase in COMEX silver inventory started at the beginning of 2025, rising from about 9800 tons at the end of 2024 to about 16543 tons in early October 2025. At the same time, the maximum decline in the SHFE gold inventory in 2025 was about 900 tons, and it recovered slightly in December but remained at a low level overall. The SGE silver inventory was relatively stable, with a slight increase at the end of 2025 compared to the beginning. The domestic exchange inventories are at a low level, while the COMEX silver inventory is at a multi - year high. Concerns about tariff increases and the US adding silver to the critical minerals list have contributed to the increase in the COMEX silver inventory [55]. - Regarding the COMEX gold futures positions, although the gold price reached a new high at the end of December 2025, the total gold positions and non - commercial long positions increased, but they were lower than the levels at the gold price peak from late September to early October 2025. The non - commercial short positions were generally at a low level, and the market structure remained bullish. However, the non - commercial net long positions at the end of December were lower than those from September to early October, indicating a slightly weaker bullish sentiment [58]. - Regarding the COMEX silver futures positions, in December 2025, the silver price rose unexpectedly. The non - commercial short positions were at a low level and did not strongly resist the upward trend. The non - commercial long positions increased, but the increase was limited. The total positions remained generally stable from mid - November to December [61

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market of gold and silver is not over yet, and it is likely that the interest rate cut will accelerate in the second half of 2026, which is an important support for the bull market [3] - Before the new Fed Chairman takes office in May 2026, the gold and silver market should not have major problems. However, if the interest rate cut is less than expected after the new chairman takes office, there may be significant fluctuations or even a turning point [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance of Precious Metals - In the week before the holiday, the precious metal market experienced a roller - coaster ride. The silver price once rose by more than 10% in a single day, reaching $79 per ounce, with a year - to - date increase of more than 150%. The domestic silver price also rose significantly. It had a large intraday amplitude, with a sharp drop in the afternoon after a sharp rise on Monday, a quick rebound the next day, and a significant decline again on the last trading day before New Year's Day [1] - During the New Year's Day holiday, the international market resumed trading on January 2nd, and both gold and silver prices rebounded slightly [1] - Currently, the international silver price is in a high - level shock consolidation state. It has formed an ascending triangle consolidation pattern, with the 10 - day moving average providing support. The gold price is weaker than the silver price but is also supported by the 20 - day moving average, maintaining a slow upward trend [5] 3.2 Fed Interest Rate Expectations - The Fed's December meeting minutes showed that policymakers had significant differences on whether inflation or unemployment posed a greater risk to the US economy. Most officials believed that the labor market risk was still downward, while inflation risk was upward. They also thought that further interest rate cuts might be appropriate in the future if new data supported the expected gradual decline of inflation [1] - According to CME "FedWatch", the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in January 2026 is 14.9%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 85.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in March is 45.2%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 48.3% [1] - It is estimated that there will be at most one interest rate cut before Powell leaves office in May, and the market has basically digested this expectation. The key is whether the new Fed Chairman after May will implement a cliff - like interest rate cut as Trump wishes, which remains highly uncertain [2][3] - If the economic situation, employment, and inflation do not change significantly from the current situation, especially if inflation does not rebound significantly, it is likely that the interest rate cut will accelerate in the second half of 2026 [3] 3.3 International Geopolitical Events - During the New Year's Day holiday, Venezuelan President Maduro was arrested by the US, which is expected to have a short - term impact on oil and gold prices [4] - Ukraine launched a fierce attack on the Kherson region, and Russia carried out large - scale retaliatory strikes on Ukrainian military enterprises and related energy facilities. The Russia - Ukraine situation has fallen into great uncertainty again [4]

Domestic Economic Indicators - Industrial enterprise profits from January to November increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while profits in November alone fell by 13.1% due to weakening production and profit margins[1] - The average operating rate of blast furnaces in December recorded 78.88%, a decrease of 3.42 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in December decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9%[1] International Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP for Q3 2025 grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, driven primarily by increased consumer spending, exports, and government expenditure[4] - Core PCE inflation in the U.S. rose to an annualized rate of 2.9%, indicating a marginal increase in inflationary pressures[4] - Gold prices reached a new high of $4549.95 per ounce, while silver prices hit a record high of $79.33, reflecting a strong performance in precious metals markets[1] Market Trends - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) averaged 2339.2, showing a month-on-month increase of 6.2% and a year-on-year increase of 113.6%[1] - The average price of copper increased by 3.65% week-on-week, driven by a combination of weak dollar and improved global demand expectations[3] - The issuance of local government bonds is planned at 580 billion yuan for January 2026, with a total of 4.58 trillion yuan issued this year, exceeding the annual quota[3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Federal Reserve Chair Beth Hammack suggests maintaining current interest rates for a period, reflecting her hawkish stance amid inflation uncertainties [1][4] - Hammack's "baseline assumption" is that rates will remain unchanged until inflation significantly decreases or the job market shows notable weakness [1][4] - Recent CPI data indicates a drop in overall inflation from 3.1% to 2.7% in November, with core inflation showing a similar decline, but Hammack remains cautious about the data due to potential statistical distortions from government shutdowns [1][4] Group 2 - Hammack has been viewed as one of the most hawkish members of the Federal Reserve since joining in 2024, and her future voting power in the FOMC could directly influence interest rate decisions [2][5] - There is a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding the neutral interest rate level, with current rates perceived by some as above neutral, while Hammack views them as slightly below, indicating a potentially stimulative policy [2][5] - The differing opinions on interest rates may lead to increased uncertainty in future rate decisions, particularly as Hammack's hawkish position could maintain high rates in the coming months [3][6]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is expected to show a volatile and upward trend in December. After the 12 - month FOMC meeting, there may be some adjustment pressure, but the amplitude is likely to be limited. The long - term upward trend of precious metals will be dominated by the contraction of the US dollar's credit, and silver may have greater elasticity [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Key News - US President Trump may adjust tariffs to lower prices of some goods and will use support for immediate and substantial interest - rate cuts as a criterion for selecting the new Fed chair [2]. - The ADP weekly employment report shows that private - sector employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week in the four - week period ending November 22 [2]. - The US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in November was 99, up from 98.2 in the previous period [2]. - The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that Japan's financial system is generally stable, and the government is responsible for achieving medium - to long - term fiscal sustainability. The BOJ is closely monitoring the risk exposure of Japanese banks to non - bank financial institutions outside Japan. The exchange rate should follow the fundamentals, and if inflation accelerates rapidly, the policy will be adjusted. The economy is expected to resume positive growth in Q4 and continue to grow thereafter, and the BOJ has been gradually reducing the easing intensity [2]. 3.2. Price Logic - On Tuesday, gold and silver prices were relatively strong and volatile, with silver showing resilience at high levels. The market is waiting for the outcome of the interest - rate meeting. The expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the December FOMC meeting has been fully traded, and there may be adjustment pressure after the meeting, but the amplitude may be limited [1][3]. - In the short term, the expectation of loose liquidity is the core driving factor for the quarter. The probability of a more dovish candidate, Hassett, being nominated as the Fed chair is increasing. After the nomination and before taking office, it may be the most favorable period for trading the expectation of loose liquidity and the risk of the Fed's independence [3]. - The leading role of silver provides support for gold prices. The squeeze - trading is spreading from silver to copper and may remain a hot topic for capital trading this month [3]. - In the long term, the narrative of the contraction of the US dollar's credit will continue to drive the upward trend of precious metals. The expansion of the US currency and the global fiscal expansion are expected to drive the economic cycle to a mild recovery, and silver may have greater elasticity [3]. 3.3. Outlook - This week, the price of London gold is expected to be in the range of [4,000, 4,400], and the price of London silver is expected to be in the range of [53, 60] [3]. 3.4. Commodity Indexes - On December 9, 2025, the comprehensive index, the Commodity 20 Index, and the industrial products index decreased by 1.08%, 1.08%, and 1.38% respectively, with values of 2,242.53, 2,560.81, and 2,185.44 [43]. 3.5. Precious Metals Index - On December 9, 2025, the precious metals index was 3495.55, with a daily decline of 0.74%, a decline of 0.32% in the past five days, an increase of 4.20% in the past month, and an increase of 58.00% since the beginning of the year [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Today, precious metals continued to adjust. The delayed - released September non - farm payrolls in the US increased by 119,000, exceeding expectations and the previous value, but the unemployment rate rose slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%. The weekly initial jobless claims were 223,000, lower than expected and remaining at a low level, showing employment resilience. However, the October non - farm and OPI data won't be released, and the November data will be postponed to mid - November, meaning there will be a lack of key data reference before the next Fed meeting. Fed officials' recent statements have significant differences, and the market's bets on a December rate cut have been fluctuating. On Friday, the New York Fed President's statement that there is still room for interest rate adjustment increased the implied probability of a rate cut in the interest rate market to around 70%. Geopolitically, the US proposed a 28 - point Ukraine peace plan, which was opposed by some European allies, and multi - party games will continue. The strong Nvidia earnings last week supported the US stocks, but then the US stocks sharply corrected, and there are still concerns about the bubble. Short - term market news is complex, and precious metals are in high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the directional breakthrough in the technical aspect [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Russia - Ukraine Conflict - US and Ukrainian representatives said the Geneva talks "made progress", and Rubio said Trump was satisfied with the talks report. Zelensky stated that the US peace plan is expected to incorporate Ukraine's core interests. Europe put forward a counter - proposal to the 28 - point plan, including the US providing NATO Article 5 - style protection, Ukraine not using military means to recover occupied territories, territorial negotiations based on the current military contact line, and allowing Ukraine to join NATO with NATO's consensus. US and Ukrainian officials are discussing Zelensky's visit to the US this week. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said Trump is pressuring Russia to end the conflict and is confident that the Russia - Ukraine peace process is advancing. Trump thinks November 27 is a suitable deadline for Ukraine to accept the peace agreement terms [2] 3.2 Fed - Williams believes there is still room for a rate cut in the near term. Collins thinks there is a reason to be cautious about a December rate cut and expects further rate cuts in the future. Milan will support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive. Logan believes the Fed needs to "temporarily keep interest rates unchanged" when inflation is still high and the labor market is generally balanced [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The dovish signal from New York Fed President Williams last Friday increased the market's expectation of a December interest - rate cut from less than 40% to over 70%, boosting the stock and precious - metal markets. However, there are significant differences within the Fed, which brings uncertainty to the market. Currently, the high - level US dollar index exerts pressure on gold and silver, but due to the potential for interest - rate cuts, the downside space for precious metals is limited. This week, the release of economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy path, and gold and silver will seek a breakthrough direction in volatility [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Precious metals: London gold traded around $4060, and London silver around $50. Driven by the overseas market, Shanghai gold closed down 0.52% at 930.32 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract closed down (the percentage is missing in the text) at 11,808 yuan/kilogram [3]. - US dollar index: It fluctuated slightly at a high level, currently trading around 100.17 [4]. - US Treasury yields: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was horizontally consolidated, currently trading around 4.067% [5]. - RMB exchange rate: The RMB weakened slightly against the US dollar, currently trading around 7.106 [6]. Important Information - US macro data: The preliminary November 2025 S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.9 (4 - month low), the Services PMI was 55 (4 - month high), and the Composite PMI was 54.8 (4 - month high). The final November 2025 University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was 51 (expected 50.5, previous 50.3), and the one - year inflation rate expectation was 4.5% (previous 4.70%) [7]. - Fed views: Williams believes the Fed can cut rates "soon" without harming the inflation target; Collins is cautious about a December rate cut but expects further cuts; Milan would support a 25 - basis - point rate cut if his vote is decisive; Logan thinks the Fed should "keep interest rates unchanged for the time being" [7]. - Fed observation: The probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December is 69.4%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 30.6%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 56.9%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 20.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 22.3% [7]. Logical Analysis Williams' dovish remarks raised the market's expectation of a December rate cut, but the internal differences in the Fed still bring uncertainty. The high - level US dollar index pressures gold and silver, but the potential for interest - rate cuts limits their downside. This week's economic data may provide more clues for the Fed's policy, and gold and silver will seek a direction in volatility [9]. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Conservative investors should wait on the sidelines until the market direction is clear. Aggressive investors can cautiously try to go long at lows near the 20 - day moving average [10]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11]. - Options: Wait and see [12]. Data Reference The report provides multiple sets of data charts, including the relationship between the US dollar index and precious metals, real yields and precious metals, domestic and foreign futures trends, futures - spot trends, internal - external price differences, ETF holdings, futures trading volume, futures inventory, trading volume, TD data, and Treasury yields and break - even inflation rates, to help analyze the precious - metals market [15][17][18][20][23][26][30][38][43][44][47][50][55].