1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For most commodities, the market shows various trends and risks, and different trading strategies are recommended according to the specific situation of each commodity [5][7][9] - Some commodities have experienced significant price changes, and investors are advised to take corresponding profit - taking or risk - control measures [8][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Treasury Bonds - Previous trading day: Treasury bond futures opened low and closed higher across the board, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts rising 0.34%, 0.11%, 0.10%, and 0.02% respectively [5] - Market situation: The central bank conducted 91 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 91 billion yuan. The IMF slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for this year. The macro - economy has stable data but weak recovery momentum, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6] - Strategy: It is expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution should be maintained [6] Stock Index Futures - Previous trading day: Stock index futures showed mixed performance, with the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM falling by 1.14%, 0.09%, 2.93%, and 2.16% respectively [7] - Market situation: The domestic economy is stable but has weak recovery momentum, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has warmed up, and incremental funds have entered the market [7] - Strategy: It is expected that volatility will increase, and existing long positions can be gradually liquidated for profit [8] Precious Metals - Previous trading day: The closing price of the gold main contract was 938.98, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 949.76; the closing price of the silver main contract was 11,533, up 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11,732 [9] - Market situation: The global trade and financial environment is complex. The trends of "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold purchases and the expected Fed rate cuts also support precious metals. However, the recent increase has been significant [9] - Strategy: Previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated for profit [10] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Previous trading day: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,940 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,050 - 3,220 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coils were 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [11] - Market situation: In the medium term, prices are determined by supply - demand. Rebar demand is declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. Supply capacity is still excessive, and recent output has declined. Rebar inventory is higher than last year. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are similar to rebar [11][12] - Strategy: The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change. Investors can consider shorting at high levels during rebounds and pay attention to position management [12] Iron Ore - Previous trading day: Iron ore futures corrected significantly. The spot price of PB fines was 778 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special fines was 700 yuan/ton [14] - Market situation: National pig iron production supports demand. Supply has increased since the second quarter, but imports and domestic production are still down year - on - year. Port inventory is lower than last year. In the short term, supply - demand supports prices, but may weaken in the medium term [14] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [14] Coking Coal and Coke - Previous trading day: Coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. Coking coal supply pressure is not significant, and demand shows some improvement. Coke prices have been adjusted, and the first - round increase is gradually taking effect [16][17] - Market situation: Coking coal production is normal, and demand for replenishment exists. Coke production and demand are relatively stable [16][17] - Strategy: Investors can consider buying on dips and pay attention to position management [17] Ferroalloys - Previous trading day: The manganese - silicon main contract fell 0.14% to 5,738 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract fell 0.44% to 5,378 yuan/ton. Spot prices also declined [19] - Market situation: Manganese ore shipments from Gabon decreased, and Australian ore supply increased. Port manganese ore inventory decreased slightly, and prices stabilized at a low level. Ferroalloy production costs increased, but demand was weak, and supply was excessive in the short term [19][20] - Strategy: In the short term, supply may remain excessive. After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [20] Crude Oil - Previous trading day: INE crude oil oscillated downward due to the expected signing of a Middle - East peace agreement [21] - Market situation: CFTC data shows that US fund managers are bearish on crude oil. US oil and gas rig counts decreased. The Russia - Ukraine war continues to support prices, but the expected peace agreement in the Middle East is negative for prices [21][22] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the main crude oil contract [23] Fuel Oil - Previous trading day: Fuel oil oscillated downward following crude oil. The spot spreads of Asian ultra - low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oils declined. Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil inventory is high, and there is a shortage of medium - sulfur fuel oil [24] - Market situation: The Russia - Ukraine war supports prices, but the easing of Middle - East geopolitical risks leads to a decline in crude oil and fuel oil [24] - Strategy: Expand the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils for the main fuel oil contract [25] Synthetic Rubber - Previous trading day: The synthetic rubber main contract fell 1.42%. The mainstream price in Shandong decreased to 11,000 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [26] - Market situation: The raw material side is bearish, and private supply is expected to increase. The utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity is high, demand is better than expected, and inventory shows different trends [26] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate [27] Natural Rubber - Previous trading day: The main contracts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber fell 0.97% and 0.79% respectively. The Shanghai spot price was stable at around 14,300 yuan/ton, and the basis widened [28] - Market situation: Affected by Sino - US trade frictions, the overall sentiment is bearish. Supply disturbances have slowed down, and demand from tire factories has decreased during the holiday. After the holiday, supply disturbances are uncertain, and demand may recover [28] - Strategy: Pay attention to long - position opportunities [29] PVC - Previous trading day: The PVC main contract fell 0.43%. Spot prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [30] - Market situation: The oversupply situation persists, but the downward space may be limited. After the holiday, focus on exports and supply reduction. Supply capacity utilization decreased, demand from downstream industries was weak, and inventory increased [30] - Strategy: Pay attention to changes on the supply side [30] Urea - Previous trading day: The urea main contract fell 0.50%. The price in Shandong Linyi was stable at 1,520 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable [31] - Market situation: After the holiday, focus on exports and cost changes. Supply has increased, and demand from downstream products has fluctuated slightly. Inventory is higher than expected [31] - Strategy: The downward space is limited [32] PX - Previous trading day: The PX main contract fell 1.58%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 220 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 100 US dollars/ton [33] - Market situation: PX load increased, and some devices are under maintenance. Imports increased in August. In the short term, supply - demand is looser, and the cost side is weak, but the PXN spread is relatively strong [33] - Strategy: PX may adjust weakly in the short term. Pay attention to position management, external crude oil changes, and macro - policy changes [33] PTA - Previous trading day: The PTA2601 main contract fell 1.6%. Supply decreased due to some device shutdowns, and demand increased as polyester load rose. Processing fees were under pressure [34][35] - Market situation: In the short term, processing fees may improve, and inventory is low, but demand improvement is limited, and external crude oil prices are weak [35] - Strategy: PTA may oscillate. Be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to oil price changes [35] Ethylene Glycol - Previous trading day: The ethylene glycol main contract fell 1.24%. Supply increased as some devices restarted, and inventory increased. Demand improvement was limited, and the cost of crude oil was weak [36] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to port inventory and import changes [36] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Short Fibers - Previous trading day: The short - fiber 2512 main contract fell 1.24%. Supply was at a relatively high level, and demand improved slightly. Cost support was weak [37][38] - Market situation: In the short term, it may oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [38] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control and macro - policy adjustments [38] Bottle Chips - Previous trading day: The bottle - chip 2512 main contract fell 1.17%. Supply increased, and demand from the downstream soft - drink industry decreased slightly, but exports remained high [39] - Market situation: In the short term, it is expected to oscillate following cost changes. Pay attention to risk control [39] - Strategy: Follow cost changes and pay attention to risk control [39] Lithium Carbonate - Previous trading day: The main contract rose 0.5% to 72,680 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. Inventory is gradually decreasing but remains high [40] - Market situation: In the short term, it may return to a supply - surplus situation, and prices may weaken. Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [40][41] - Strategy: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [41] Copper - Previous trading day: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low due to uncertainties in US tariffs on China. The spot price increased, but downstream buying was weak [43] - Market situation: The closure of an Indonesian copper mine supports prices. Goldman Sachs' price forecast is lower than expected. Sino - US negotiations bring uncertainties [43] - Strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading the Shanghai copper main contract [44] Tin - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.76% to 280,000 yuan/ton. The supply from the mine end is tight, and demand shows some resilience. Inventory is decreasing [45] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate strongly. Pay attention to the risk of accelerated mine resumption and lower - than - expected consumption [45][46] Nickel - Previous trading day: The main contract fell 0.17% to 120,870 yuan/ton. Concerns about supply resurfaced, but the price of high - grade nickel ore is supported. Stainless - steel consumption is weak, and inventory is relatively high [48] - Market situation: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] - Strategy: It is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the risk of significant improvement in macro - policies [48][49] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Previous trading day: The main contracts of soybean meal and soybean oil fell 1.16% and 0.51% respectively. The spot prices were stable. US and Brazilian soybean production is progressing smoothly, and there are concerns about US soybean exports [50] - Market situation: Domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the profit of oil mills has declined. Demand for soybean meal may increase slightly, and soybean oil consumption is under pressure [50][51] - Strategy: Consider long - position opportunities for soybean meal call options after adjustment. Temporarily hold off on trading soybean oil [51] Palm Oil - Previous trading day: Malaysian palm oil fell for the third consecutive day. Inventory in September increased, and exports in October showed an increase. Chinese imports increased in August, and inventory is at a medium level [52] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips [53] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Previous trading day: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has purchased a large amount of Australian rapeseed. Domestic imports of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil increased in August. Inventory is at different levels [54][55] - Market situation: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] - Strategy: Consider a long - position strategy on dips for rapeseed oil [56] Cotton - Previous trading day: Domestic cotton oscillated, and the outer - market cotton rebounded. US cotton production is expected to increase, and there are concerns about Sino - US trade frictions. Domestic cotton production is expected to increase significantly [57][58] - Market situation: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure. The domestic - foreign price difference is large, and there is hedging pressure [58] - Strategy: Cotton prices are expected to remain under pressure [59] Sugar - Previous trading day: Zhengzhou sugar fell to a new low, and the outer - market sugar rebounded. Brazilian sugar production increased in September, and the global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus in the new season. Chinese imports increased [60] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The short - term price may have support [61][62] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [62] Apples - Previous trading day: Domestic apple futures fell slightly. Early - maturing apples had different price trends, and late - maturing apples are about to be listed. The national apple production is expected to increase slightly [63] - Market situation: Consider a wait - and - see strategy. The opening price of late - maturing apples is likely to be higher than last year [63][64] - Strategy: Consider a wait - and - see strategy [64] Live Pigs - Previous trading day: The national average price of live pigs rose to 10.89 yuan/kg. The supply in the north has increased, and the price has stabilized and rebounded. The supply in the south has increased, and the price is stable. The inventory of sows has decreased slightly [65] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and using reverse - arbitrage strategies. Pay attention to the supply rhythm and the entry of second - fattening pigs [65][66] Eggs - Previous trading day: The average price of eggs in the main production areas was stable, and that in the main sales areas decreased slightly. The cost is high, and the inventory of laying hens is at a high level. The consumption after the holiday is weak [67] - Market situation: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] - Strategy: Consider holding existing short positions and adding short positions on rebounds. Pay attention to the change in the culling sentiment and cost collapse [67][68] Corn and Corn Starch - Previous trading day: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. US corn harvesting is progressing smoothly. Domestic demand for corn is slightly increasing, and the inventory of corn starch is at a high level [69][70] - Market situation: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71] - Strategy: Corn prices are expected to remain under pressure. Consider a wait - and - see strategy. Corn starch may follow the corn market [70][71]

2025 年 9 月 30 日星期二 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88818009 E-Mail：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 目录： 2025 年 9 月 30 日 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运欧线 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、氧化铝、铝、铝合金、锌、锡、镍、不锈钢、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 分行业板块看，化工及金融强势，上涨板块中，券商、贵金属、基本金属分别上涨 4.89%、4.30%、 3.2 ...

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 9 月 15 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场: 今天白天，外盘贵金属在历史高位附近窄幅波动，伦敦金当前 交投于 3641 美元附近；伦敦银当前交投于 42.2 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金最 终收涨 0.1%，报 831.6 元/克；沪银主力合约最终收涨 0.88%，报 10017 元/千 克。 2.美元指数:美元指数低位盘整，当前交投于 97.56 附近。 3.美债收益率:10 年美债收益率小幅反弹，当前交投于 4.07%附近。 1.美国宏观：①美国 9 月一年期通胀率预期初值 4.8%，预期 4.7%，前值 4.80%。②美国 9 月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值 55.4，预期 58，前值 58.2。 2. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each category [1]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, major indices declined, while in the precious metals market, prices continued to rise due to weak US employment data and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][7]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Major indices opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%, and most sectors adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis of the main contracts decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improved as the stock market fell. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally declined. It is recommended to use interval operations and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to rise. Weak US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the decline in US Treasury yields increased the demand for precious metals. Gold reached a record high of $3559.02 per ounce, and silver closed at $41.19 per ounce. It is expected that gold may rise above $3600, and silver may quickly rise above $42, but caution is needed [7][8][9]. Container Shipping on European Routes - The spot price of container shipping continued to decline, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate. The 12 - 10 month - spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The center of copper price has risen due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations. However, the upside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 79000 - 81000 yuan/ton [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan/ton and the actual start of peak - season demand [19][20][21]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [23][24][26]. - **Tin**: The supply remains tight, and the price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectations and import/export conditions [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to raw material dynamics and the realization of peak - season demand [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate widely after the price center moves down, and it is recommended to wait and see. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [36][37][38]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for rebar declined, and the steel price maintained a weak downward trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment volume increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume rose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants was implemented, but the eighth round was blocked. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coke [47][48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US trade has not made substantial progress, and the domestic bullish expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on the dips [50][52]. - **Hogs**: The supply - demand contradiction in the market is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the support levels of 13500 for the 11 - contract and 13800 for the 01 - contract [53][54]. - **Corn**: The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust, and the medium - term trend is weak. It is recommended to go short on the rallies [55][56].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On August 27, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.12% to 781.16 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.52% to 9,305 yuan/kg [4] - The event of Trump dismissing Fed Governor Cook has further fermented. Political pressure has strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, thus supporting precious metal prices. On the other hand, the official implementation of a 50% tariff on India by the US and Trump's tariff remarks have slightly increased market risk aversion. However, Trump's statement that the US has completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, along with strong US core durable goods order data in July, highlighting US economic resilience and providing support for the US dollar index, have limited the upside space for gold prices. In the short term, precious metal prices are still supported. For gold, it is recommended to hold long positions or go long on pullbacks. For silver, it is expected to follow gold in the short term, but with signs of cooling in the stock market and commodities, short - term fluctuations need attention, and the upside height and duration in the medium term should be treated with caution [4] - In the medium - to - long term, due to expectations of Fed rate cuts, continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified large - scale games, and the wave of de - dollarization, along with continued gold purchases by global central banks, the medium - to - long - term center of gravity of gold is likely to continue to move up [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 27, 2025, London gold spot was at $3,376.92/ounce, London silver spot was at $38.43/ounce, COMEX gold was at $3,426.60/ounce, and COMEX silver was at $38.47/ounce. Compared with August 26, the price of London gold remained unchanged, London silver fell 0.7%, COMEX gold rose 0.1%, and COMEX silver fell 0.6%. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed corresponding changes, with AU2510 remaining unchanged, AG2510 falling 0.5%, AU (T + D) remaining unchanged, and AG (T + D) falling 0.6% [3] - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: On August 27, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.14 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 35 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 6.00 yuan/gram, and the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 582 yuan/kg. Compared with August 26, the price spreads showed different degrees of change, with the gold TD - SHFE active price spread falling 7.6%, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread rising 12.9%, the gold internal - external price spread rising 21.4%, and the silver internal - external price spread falling 4.7%. The SHFE gold - silver main ratio was 83.95, and the COMEX gold - silver main ratio was 89.08, both showing slight increases [3] Position Data - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 26, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR held 959.92 tons, up 0.15% from August 25. The silver ETF - SLV held 15,274.6947 tons, down 0.09% [3] - **Non - commercial Positions in COMEX**: As of August 19, 2025 (weekly data), the non - commercial long positions in COMEX gold decreased by 4.46%, the non - commercial short positions increased by 6.92%, and the net long positions decreased by 7.36%. For COMEX silver, the non - commercial long positions increased by 2.79%, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 1.96%, and the net long positions increased by 5.15% [3] Inventory Data - On August 27, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 37,503 kg, unchanged from August 26. The SHFE silver inventory was 1,165,498 kg, up 3.39% from August 26. The COMEX gold inventory on August 26 was 38,578,730 troy ounces, up 0.04% from August 25, and the COMEX silver inventory on August 26 was 508,778,300 troy ounces, unchanged from August 25 [3] Related Market Data - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: From August 25 to August 27, 2025, the US dollar index fell 0.11%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 3.22%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.19%, the VIX fell 0.47%, the NYMEX crude oil price rose 0.41%, and the S&P 500 fell 2.21% [4] Market News and Analysis - Trump announced the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, who refused to resign and will sue. The Fed stated that only "just cause" can remove a governor and will abide by court decisions. The Trump administration is considering exerting greater influence on the 12 regional reserve banks of the Fed [4] - In July, the preliminary monthly change in US durable goods orders was - 2.8%, a second consecutive month of negative growth. However, the preliminary monthly change in core durable goods orders excluding aircraft and non - defense capital goods increased by 1.1%, exceeding expectations and indicating US economic resilience [4] - Trump said that the US has completed trade agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and a 50% tariff on India officially took effect on August 27 [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market showed a pattern of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon on Thursday, with the main contracts of stock index futures rising and falling differently. The market is influenced by domestic and overseas news and capital flows. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at an appropriate time and maintain a moderately bullish attitude [2][3][6]. - Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The bond market is under pressure from the equity market, but considering financial and inflation data, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [7][9]. - The prices of precious metals rose first and then fell. The market is affected by factors such as the US PPI data and the attitude of the Federal Reserve towards interest rate cuts. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and hold long positions in silver or construct a bullish spread strategy using silver put options [10][12][13]. - The main contract of container shipping futures fluctuated. Due to the high growth rate of container capacity and weak European demand, it is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [14][15]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals showed different trends. Copper is expected to fluctuate in the short - term; alumina is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term; aluminum is expected to be under pressure at high levels; zinc and tin are expected to fluctuate; nickel and stainless steel are expected to adjust within a range; lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in a bullish range [19][21][23]. - The prices of black metals also showed different trends. Steel prices are supported by limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions; iron ore prices are expected to follow the trend of steel prices, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see; coking coal and coke prices have seen their futures prices peak and fall back, and it is recommended to take profit on speculative positions and wait and see [41][44][46]. - For agricultural products, the long - term outlook for meal products is positive, but short - term profit - taking is recommended; the price of live pigs is oscillating at a low level, and attention should be paid to the release rhythm of the slaughter volume; the upward movement of corn prices is limited, and attention should be paid to short opportunities; the price of sugar is expected to be bearish [53][55][56]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Thursday, the A - share market rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.08%. The main contracts of the four major stock index futures rose and fell differently, and most of the basis was at a discount [2][3]. - **News**: Domestically, the State Council issued a decision to modify the regulations on the entry and exit of foreigners. Overseas, the US Treasury Secretary made statements on issues such as drug tariffs, the sale of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac equity, and interest rate cuts [3][4]. - **Capital Flow**: On August 14, the trading volume of the A - share market reached 2.28 trillion. The central bank conducted 1287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan on the same day [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell put options on MO2509 at an appropriate time and maintain a moderately bullish attitude [6]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and long - term bonds performed weaker [7]. - **Capital Flow**: The central bank conducted 1287 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 320 billion yuan on August 14. It is expected to conduct 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month reverse repurchase operations on August 15 to maintain capital stability [7][8]. - **Fundamentals**: In late July, China's M2 balance increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans, deposits, and social financing scale in the first seven months was significant [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing. The 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.75% [9]. Financial Derivatives - Precious Metals - **Market Conditions**: The US PPI in July rebounded significantly year - on - year, and the first - time unemployment claims in the week of August 9 were slightly lower than expected. The prices of precious metals rose first and then fell. The international gold price fell 0.63%, and the international silver price fell 1.32% [10][12]. - **Future Outlook**: Although the market sentiment has been affected by trade agreements, the US economic data in July has deteriorated, and there is still a demand for hedging. It is recommended to construct a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and hold long positions in silver or construct a bullish spread strategy using silver put options [12][13]. - **Capital Flow**: The weak US economy stimulates the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the allocation funds have a high interest in precious metals. The positions of gold and silver ETFs are expected to increase [13]. Financial Derivatives - Container Shipping Futures (EC) - **Spot Quotations**: As of August 15, the spot quotations of major shipping companies were provided [14]. - **Container Shipping Index**: As of August 11, the SCFIS European line index and the US West line index decreased. As of August 8, the SCFI composite index also decreased [14]. - **Fundamentals**: As of August 11, the global container capacity increased by 7.9% year - on - year. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI in July was 50.9, and the US manufacturing PMI in July was 48 [14]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The futures price is in a downward trend. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [15]. Commodity Futures - Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM electrolytic copper decreased, and the average premium increased. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [16]. - **Macro**: The US CPI in July increased moderately, and the market expected the probability of an interest rate cut in September to increase. Trump signed an extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days [16][19]. - **Supply**: The TC of copper concentrate increased slightly. The domestic electrolytic copper production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to decrease slightly in August [17]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of copper rod production decreased and increased respectively. The domestic demand was resilient, but it was under marginal pressure in Q3 [18]. - **Inventory**: COMEX and LME inventories increased, while domestic social inventories decreased [18]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: In the short - term, copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78000 - 79500 [19]. Alumina - **Spot**: On August 14, the spot prices of alumina in different regions remained unchanged [19]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of metallurgical - grade alumina in China increased, and the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly in August [20]. - **Inventory**: On August 14, the port inventory decreased, and the registered volume of warehouse receipts increased [20]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high levels in the medium - term, with the main contract operating in the range of 3000 - 3400 [21]. Aluminum - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased, and the average premium increased [22]. - **Supply**: In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased [22]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of downstream industries increased slightly [22]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum ingots increased, and the LME inventory also increased [23]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be under pressure at high levels in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 20000 - 21000 [23]. Aluminum Alloy - **Spot**: On August 14, the spot prices of aluminum alloy remained unchanged [24]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and it is expected to remain stable in August [24]. - **Demand**: In July, the demand was under pressure, and the market trading activity decreased [24]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased, and the inventories in some areas were close to full [25]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract referring to 19400 - 20400 [25]. Zinc - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots decreased, and the downstream demand was weak [25][26]. - **Supply**: The processing fees of zinc concentrate remained unchanged. The domestic refined zinc production in July increased significantly, and it is expected to increase further from January to August [26]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of primary processing industries were at a seasonal low, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high [27]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased, and the LME inventory decreased [28]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22000 - 23000 [28]. Tin - **Spot**: On August 14, the price of SMM 1 tin decreased, and the downstream procurement increased slightly [29]. - **Supply**: The domestic tin ore and tin ingot imports in June decreased. The actual tin ore output in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter [29][30]. - **Demand and Inventory**: The operating rate of the soldering tin industry decreased in June. The LME inventory increased, and the social inventory decreased [30]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [31]. Nickel - **Spot**: On August 14, the average price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased [31]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of refined nickel increased, and the monthly production is expected to increase slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The demand for electroplating and alloys was stable, the demand for stainless steel was general, and the demand for nickel sulfate was under pressure [32]. - **Inventory**: The overseas inventory was high, the domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the bonded area inventory decreased [32]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 120000 - 126000 [33]. Stainless Steel - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of 304 cold - rolled stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased [34]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of nickel ore was stable, the price of nickel iron increased, and the price of ferrochrome was expected to be stable [34]. - **Supply**: The estimated production of stainless steel in August increased slightly [35]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased slowly, and the futures inventory increased [35]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly within a range, with the main contract referring to 13000 - 13500 [36]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [37]. - **Supply**: In July, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and it is expected to increase in August. The supply is relatively sufficient, but the growth rate has slowed down [38]. - **Demand**: The demand is optimistic, and the demand in August is expected to increase [38]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased slightly last week, with the upstream inventory decreasing and the downstream and other links replenishing inventory [39]. - **Logic and Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and lightly go long at low prices. The price is expected to fluctuate in a bullish range around 85,000 [40]. Commodity Futures - Black Metals Steel - **Spot**: The steel price decreased, and the basis strengthened [41]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost increased, but the steel price also increased, and the steel mill's profit increased [41]. - **Supply**: From January to July, the iron element production increased. In August, the production increased compared with July, and there is a pressure of inventory accumulation from August to September [42]. - **Demand**: From January to July, the apparent demand for five major steel products was basically the same year - on - year. The domestic demand decreased, and the foreign demand increased. Currently, the apparent demand has decreased [42]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory increased significantly, mainly in the hands of traders [43]. - **View**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the support levels of 3400 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3200 yuan for rebar [44]. Iron Ore - **Spot**: On August 14, the prices of mainstream iron ore powders decreased [45]. - **Futures**: The prices of iron ore futures decreased [45]. - **Basis**: The basis of different iron ore varieties was provided [45]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly, the blast furnace operating rate decreased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate increased slightly [45]. - **Supply**: This week, the global iron ore shipment and arrival volume decreased [46]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly, the daily average dredging volume increased, and the steel mill's imported iron ore inventory increased [46]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [46]. Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The coking coal futures price peaked and fell back, and the price of some coal varieties in the spot auction loosened [47]. - **Supply**: The coal mine's operating rate decreased, and the output decreased slightly [47][48]. - **Demand**: The coking plant's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream demand for iron water was high but may decrease in August [48]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, and the demand for downstream replenishment weakened [48]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [49][50]. Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The coke futures price peaked and fell back, and the sixth - round price increase of coke was implemented. There is still an expectation of a seventh - round price increase [51][52]. - **Profit**: The coke enterprise's profit improved [51]. - **Supply**: The coking plant's operating rate increased due to the price increase [52]. - **Demand**: The demand for iron water was high but may decrease in August [52]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory decreased, and the downstream still had a demand for replenishment [52]. - **View**: It is recommended to take profit on long positions and wait and see, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on iron ore [52]. Commodity Futures - Agricultural Products Meal Products - **Spot Market**: The price of soybean meal decreased slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the trading volume was 100 tons [53]. - **Fundamentals**: The US new - crop soybean export sales were higher than expected, and Brazil's soybean production, crushing volume, and export volume were all revised upwards [54]. - **Market Outlook**: The USDA monthly report supported the US soybean price, and the anti - dumping of Canadian rapeseed supported the rapeseed meal price. However, short - term profit - taking occurred, and it is recommended to close the position and wait and see. The overall trend is upward [55]. Live Pigs - **Spot Situation**: The spot price fluctuated strongly. The profit of different breeding models changed, and the average slaughter weight increased [56][57]. - **Market Outlook**: The current supply and demand are weak. The group's slaughter volume is expected to increase in August, and the later pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to blindly short the far - month 01 contract, and attention should be paid to the impact of hedging funds [57]. Corn - **Spot Price**: The spot price in some

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fed officials' dovish remarks and Trump's influence on Fed personnel appointments increase market expectations for further loose monetary policies, which support the prices of gold and silver [2][3] - Given Trump's pressure on the Fed's monetary policy independence through personnel appointments and the significantly lower - than - expected employment data, it is certain that the Fed will implement further loose monetary policies. It is recommended to buy precious metals on dips, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 777 - 801 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 8885 - 9390 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - On August 6, 2025, Shanghai gold (Au) fell 0.29% to 781.96 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 0.22% to 9180.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.02% to 3432.80 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver rose 0.22% to 37.99 dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.22%, and the US dollar index was 98.19 [2] - Various precious - metal related data, such as the closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of Au(T + D), London gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, etc., also showed different degrees of changes [4] Market Outlook and Policy Analysis - Fed officials, including San Francisco Fed President Daly, Fed Governor Cook, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, made dovish remarks, believing that the labor market has weakened and that the Fed may need to start adjusting interest rates soon [2] - Trump's team is promoting the appointment of an interim director for the vacant Fed seat, and Trump will announce the candidate within two to three days. Two "Kevin"s are in the running [3] Data Table and Chart Analysis - A table shows the key data summary of gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, positions, inventories, etc., and their daily changes and year - on - year historical quantiles [7] - Multiple charts display the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structure and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [21][22][53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the reports. 2. Report Core Views There is no explicit core view presented in the reports. The reports mainly offer data on various futures, including price, spread, basis, and related economic indicators. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1. Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price Changes**: The F futures spot - futures spread was -21.45, down 3.55 from the previous day; the IC spot - futures spread was -104.64, down 11.90; the IM spot - futures spread was -105.48, down 8.39 [1]. - **Spread Percentiles**: The historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of various spreads are provided, such as the F futures spot - futures spread with a 1 - year percentile of 20.80% and a full - history percentile of 29.90% [1]. 3.2. Treasury Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis and Spread**: On August 5, 2025, the TS basis was 0.0136, up 0.0213 from the previous day; the TF basis was 0.0031, up 0.0020; the T basis was 0.0273, down 0.0937; the TL basis was 0.1301, down 0.2098 [2]. - **Percentiles**: The percentiles of basis and spread since futures contract listing are given, for example, the TS basis had a 18.70% percentile since listing [2]. 3.3. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Price Movements**: Domestic and foreign precious metal futures and spot prices showed different degrees of change. For example, the AU2510 contract price was 782.50 yuan/gram on August 5, up 1.08 from August 4; the COMEX gold主力 contract price was 3435.00 dollars/ounce on August 2, up 6.40 from August 4 [4]. - **Basis and Ratio**: The basis of gold TD - Shanghai gold主力 was -2.58, up 3.29 from the previous value; the ratio of COMEX gold/silver was 90.79, down 0.77 from the previous value [4]. 3.4. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Spot and Index Changes**: On August 6, the spot prices of shipping companies such as MAERSK and CMA showed a downward trend. The SCFIS (European route) settlement price index on August 4 was 2297.86, down 18.7 from July 28 [6]. - **Futures and Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of some contracts like EC2602 increased, while the EC2508 contract decreased. The global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged at 3279.31 million TEU on August 6 compared to August 2 [6]. 3.5. Trading Calendar - **Data and Events**: Overseas data includes the eurozone's June retail sales monthly rate and US crude oil inventory data. Domestic data involves steel - related production and sales, glass production - sales ratio, etc. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The U.S. economic and inflation data released last night were resilient, putting continuous pressure on precious metal prices. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.37%, and the U.S. dollar index was at 100.01. The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.7% and in line with the previous value. The initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 were 218,000, lower than the expected 224,000. The Chicago PMI in July was 47.1, significantly higher than the expected 42 and the previous value of 40.4 [2]. - Powell's stance in the interest rate meeting was hawkish. He believed that the subsequent monetary policy path depends on economic data, emphasizing the importance of "seizing the right timing." The market reduced its expectations for the Fed's easing policy after the meeting. The CME interest rate observer shows that the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points only in the October meeting. The Fed's monetary policy stance has turned hawkish, and precious metal prices will face strong short - term correction pressure. Given the uncertainty of subsequent employment data and the stances of key voting members, it is recommended to temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude for gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 8662 - 9290 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Price Changes - Shanghai gold rose 0.12% to 770.92 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.37% to 8935.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.13% to 3344.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver rose 0.17% to 36.78 dollars/ounce [2]. - Au(T + D) fell 0.38% to 766.58 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) fell 2.25% to 8960.00 yuan/kilogram. London gold fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce, and London silver fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [4]. 3.2 Gold - Related Data - COMEX gold: The closing price of the active contract rose 0.43% to 3342.30 dollars/ounce, the trading volume fell 22.67% to 154,600 lots, the open interest rose 9.12% to 489,400 lots, and the inventory rose 0.42% to 1203 tons [6]. - LBMA gold: The closing price fell 0.16% to 3298.85 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE gold: The closing price of the active contract fell 0.45% to 770.28 yuan/gram, the trading volume rose 27.56% to 324,300 lots, the open interest rose 1.32% to 429,800 lots, the inventory rose 6.52% to 35.64 tons, and the settled funds flowed in by 0.86% to 52.966 billion yuan [6]. 3.3 Silver - Related Data - COMEX silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 1.04% to 36.79 dollars/ounce, the open interest rose 1.29% to 173,700 lots, and the inventory rose 0.17% to 15,714 tons [6]. - LBMA silver: The closing price fell 4.48% to 36.22 dollars/ounce [6]. - SHFE silver: The closing price of the active contract fell 2.00% to 9008.00 yuan/kilogram, the trading volume rose 65.29% to 1,394,000 lots, the open interest fell 4.58% to 797,400 lots, the inventory fell 0.01% to 1208.03 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 6.49% to 19.394 billion yuan [6]. 3.4 Other Market Data - The U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.37%, and TIPS rose 1.02% to 1.98%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.08% to 100.0489, and the offshore RMB fell 0.49% to 7.2545 [4]. - The Dow Jones Index fell 0.74% to 44,130.98, the S&P 500 fell 0.37% to 6339.39, the Nasdaq Index fell 0.03% to 21,122.45, and the VIX Index rose 8.01% to 16.72. The London FTSE 100 fell 0.05% to 9132.81, and the Tokyo Nikkei 225 Index rose 1.02% to 41,069.82 [4]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spread Data (July 31, 2025) - Gold: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 3.41 yuan/gram (14.75 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 1.16 yuan/gram (4.98 dollars/ounce) [50]. - Silver: The SHFE - COMEX spread was 463.30 yuan/kilogram (2.00 dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA spread was 461.74 yuan/kilogram (1.99 dollars/ounce) [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of precious metals is under pressure due to the easing of overseas geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties, and the resilience of US economic data [2]. - The Fed's monetary policy stance is expected to turn dovish in the July interest - rate meeting this week, and the Fed's interest - rate cut this year will exceed market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a long - term view on precious metals, with a focus on the opportunity to go long on silver. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 794 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9075 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.31% to 770.84 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) dropped 0.27% to 9200.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold rose 0.06% to 3311.90 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver rose 0.25% to 38.32 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.42%, and the US dollar index was 98.63 [2]. - The prices of various precious metal products showed different changes, such as Au(T + D) dropping 0.26% to 771.58 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) dropping 1.98% to 9186.00 yuan/kilogram [4]. Market Outlook - Overseas geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties have eased, with the cease - fire agreement between Thailand and Cambodia taking effect. US tariff policies are gradually being determined, and the US economic data shows resilience, with the July Dallas Fed business activity index at 0.9, higher than expected and the previous value [2]. - The Fed's July interest - rate meeting is expected to have a dovish stance, and there is a possibility of an unexpected interest - rate cut. International silver prices tend to be strong when the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are gradually released [3]. Data Statistics - The report provides detailed data on gold and silver, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and their changes and historical quantiles in different markets (COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, etc.) [6]. - It also presents various data charts, such as the relationship between gold and silver prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, and the near - far month structure of gold and silver futures [8][11][21].