Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate has hit a trading limit down, indicating a significant market correction driven by policy intervention and fundamental market dynamics [3][4]. - Regulatory measures by the Guangxi Futures Exchange aim to prevent excessive speculation that could harm the real economy, suggesting that the market is being cooled rather than ending [3][4]. - The volatility in the lithium carbonate market reflects a disconnect between bullish price expectations and current market realities, highlighting the speculative nature of recent trading [4][5]. Group 2: Methanol Market Outlook - The 05 contract for methanol is highlighted as a potential opportunity due to expected improvements in the fundamental market conditions [7]. - Key factors influencing the methanol market include potential gas supply restrictions from Iran, domestic supply reductions, and a possible demand recovery from MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) operations [8][9][10]. - The market sentiment is expected to shift towards a de-stocking phase starting mid-December, which could positively impact prices [12][20]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Market - A recent conference involving major players in the organic silicon industry has led to a coordinated reduction in production, effective from December 1, which is expected to alleviate supply pressures on upstream industrial silicon [21][23]. - The price of DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) has increased significantly, reflecting the industry's efforts to stabilize prices amid long-term losses and supply-demand imbalances [23]. - The market's quick response to the news indicates a strong sentiment towards self-regulation within the industry, which could bolster confidence moving forward [23]. Group 4: Nickel Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend, breaking through key support levels, driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances and high inventory levels [29][30]. - The anticipated tightening of nickel supply has not materialized, leading to a bearish outlook as demand growth remains insufficient to absorb the excess supply [32][33]. - The market is expected to remain under pressure due to high inventories and a lack of significant demand recovery in the near term [33]. Group 5: Futures Market Overview - The futures market shows a clear divergence between bullish opportunities in certain commodities like iron ore and bearish trends in others like coal and agricultural products [46][49][55]. - The core logic driving these trends revolves around supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic policies, and seasonal factors affecting various commodities [48][54][57]. - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified approach while closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting strategies accordingly [58].

Group 1: General Information - Report date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices rose rapidly in the afternoon. The closing price of Si2601 was 9,390 yuan/ton, with a gain of 4.68%. The trading volume was 755,732 lots, and the open interest was 30,669 lots, with a net increase of 58,650 lots [4] - Spot prices increased slightly. The price range of 553 was 9,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 was 9,750 - 9,950 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - Supply and demand of industrial silicon both decreased. Production cuts in the southwest production area were ongoing, and weekly output still had room to decline [4] - The planned production cuts of silicone enterprises were significantly lower than the previous market consensus. The actual production cuts and time under the conditions of profitability and industrial self - discipline needed to be observed. In the first half of 2025, the silicone industry also cut production to support prices, but the effect was limited. Polysilicon production was also cut simultaneously, and the monthly output was expected to remain at 120,000 tons [4] - Due to production cuts in the southwest and rising costs, after the price of 2601 strongly rose and then fell, the basis was basically at par. The upside space was limited, and it was expected to fluctuate cautiously and strongly. Be vigilant against the ebb of bullish sentiment in the same - sector commodities [4] Group 3: Market News - On November 19, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 43,412 lots, a net decrease of 10 lots from the previous trading day [4] - A meeting of actual controllers of silicone monomer plants was held in Shanghai as scheduled. The organizer was the China Fluorosilicone and Organic Materials Industry Association, and leading enterprises participated. The total production capacity of participating enterprises accounted for more than 80% of the industry's production capacity. The meeting was about joint emission reduction and price support [4] - The emission reduction plan was to be implemented starting from December 1. If it was implemented throughout December, the DMC output in December was expected to be about 210,400 tons, a reduction of about 8,000 tons compared with before the reduction. It was expected to affect the monthly consumption of industrial silicon by about 4,400 tons [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The current market for lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures shows significant price fluctuations. The lithium carbonate market is driven by strong demand expectations, while the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are influenced by policy and news. [1][9][12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures rose strongly again today. The main 2601 contract increased by 6.18% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 99,300 yuan/ton, and the trading volume reached a record high. [1] - **Core Logic**: The current market is driven by demand expectations. The demand for lithium carbonate in power batteries and energy storage is strong. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to rise to about 60% in November - December, and the energy - storage battery installation growth rate in 2026 is expected to exceed 40%. Recently, the capital has also accelerated the upward trend. [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of lithium carbonate futures increased significantly. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycle charts show a strong trend, with a long - short dividing line at 86,580 yuan/ton. [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectation", the operation should be mainly based on buying on dips. Do not trade against the trend when the futures price retraces. [2] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures rose strongly after the lunch break. The main 2601 contract increased by 4.57% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 9,390 yuan/ton, hitting the highest level since July 30. [9] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the information from the meeting of the actual controller of the silicone monomer factory and the price increase of the silicone spot, the main 2601 contract of industrial silicon rose sharply. However, the current fundamental supply - demand of industrial silicon is weak, and the industry inventory is high. [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of industrial silicon futures increased significantly. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycle charts show a strong trend, with a long - short dividing line at 8,945 yuan/ton. [9] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Affected by policies and news, the price of industrial silicon futures fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast. [9] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures followed the upward trend of industrial silicon and rose rapidly after the lunch break. The main 2601 contract increased by 4.63% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 54,625 yuan/ton. [12] - **Core Logic**: The polysilicon followed the upward trend of industrial silicon. The fundamental supply - demand of polysilicon is weak, and the main focus is on the establishment of the state - reserve platform and relevant announcements of polysilicon enterprises. The production in November is expected to be 127,000 tons, and the inventory has slightly increased recently. [12][15] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of polysilicon futures decreased. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycle charts show a strong trend, with a long - short dividing line at 52,210 yuan/ton. [15] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Affected by policies and news, the price of polysilicon futures fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast. [15]