由财政部、国家税务总局、工业和信息化部联合发布的《关于延续和优化新能源汽车车辆购置税减免政 策的公告》（2023年10号公告）中明确，2026年1月1日起，新能源车购置税将从全额免征调整为减半征 收，目前车购税税额为10%，新能源汽车减半征税则意味着实际税率为5%，同时免税上限也从3万元降 至1.5万元。 以具体车型测算，发票价格30万元的新能源汽车，应缴纳购置税额则为1.5万元（30万元×5%）；发票 价格50万元的车型，按10%税率计税后扣除1.5万元最高减税额，消费者仍需缴纳购置税额3.5万元（50 万X10%-1.5万元)。 面对政策切换可能引发的消费者观望情绪，主流新能源车企在今年第四季度陆续推出"购置税兜底"解决 方案。 据记者不完全梳理发现，理想汽车、蔚来汽车、奇瑞汽车、问界汽车、智界汽车、极氪汽车等超二十家 车企推出了购置税"兜底"补贴方案。 随着2025年年末临近，持续十年的新能源汽车购置税免征政策即将谢幕。 另一家理想汽车4S店的销售人员直言，自己会更直接地跟消费者说现在买车省多少钱，结合厂家推出 的购置税补贴，向消费者传递现在买车比明年更划算的概念。 尽管车企纷纷推出购置税"兜底"方案， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished product is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation, with its price center shifting downward and showing a weak performance [1][2] - The short - term trend of lithium carbonate is expected to be range - bound, with a continued atmosphere of long - short game, and attention should be paid to marginal changes in supply and demand [1][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Product - Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5, most will stop in mid - January, and some after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2] - The finished product price continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and this year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures LC2605 rose and then fell, closing at 92,800 yuan/ton, a 1.23% decline. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 92,750 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 50 yuan/ton, narrowing by 2,040 yuan/ton from the previous day. The trading and positions of the main contract declined slightly, and the long - short game continued but with reduced heat. The term structure shows "near - weak and far - strong" differentiation [1] - On the supply side, the resumption of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is slow, and salt lake lithium extraction is restricted, with limited short - term supply increase. As of December 9, the lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index was 1,165 US dollars/ton, and the production and theoretical delivery profits of purchased lithium spodumene and lithium mica are negative, which may support the bottom of the lithium carbonate futures price [2] - On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The weekly output of power batteries increased by 0.7%. It is predicted that the lithium iron phosphate operating rate in December will remain above 70%. The market expects the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy to continue, and the overall inventory continues to decline, with downstream inventory rising slightly and terminal replenishment mainly for rigid demand [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has accelerated the lithium mine approval process, but the resumption of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is still lagging, and the actual supply increase is limited. The positions of the main contract declined slightly, and the long - short game continued [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The price of building materials is expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with a downward shift in the price center and weak operation [2][4]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be in a short - term strong volatile state, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Building Materials - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect a total output of 741,000 tons of construction steel. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5th, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output reduction of about 16,200 tons for some mills [2][3]. - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3]. - The building materials market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, a low - key winter storage, and a lack of macro and industrial highlights, leading to a continuous downward shift in the price center [4]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate showed signs of a rebound. The main contract LC2605 closed at 94,840 yuan/ton, up 1.76%, with a basis of - 2,090 yuan/ton in a contango structure. The trading volume and open interest increased to varying degrees, and the long - short game intensified [2]. - Supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic new - energy policies, but constrained by inventory pressure and cautious downstream procurement, it may maintain a high - level consolidation in the short term [2]. - According to SMM data, last week's output was 21,900 tons, a 0.34% increase from the previous period. The resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is slow, and salt - lake lithium extraction is restricted, resulting in limited supply increments [3]. - In terms of demand, the production schedule in the energy - storage field is strong, but the demand for power batteries is seasonally weak, and terminal car companies' procurement is cautious. However, the possible continuation of the new - energy vehicle purchase - tax exemption policy boosts market confidence [3]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources has accelerated the lithium - mine approval process, but the resumption of the Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is still lagging, and the actual supply increment is limited [4]. - Some lithium - iron - phosphate enterprises are considering price increases, but downstream acceptance of high prices is low, and spot purchases are mainly for rigid needs [4]. - The open interest of the main contract has increased sharply, and speculative funds are active. Attention should be paid to possible regulatory measures by the exchange [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The current market for lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures shows significant price fluctuations. The lithium carbonate market is driven by strong demand expectations, while the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are influenced by policy and news. [1][9][12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures rose strongly again today. The main 2601 contract increased by 6.18% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 99,300 yuan/ton, and the trading volume reached a record high. [1] - **Core Logic**: The current market is driven by demand expectations. The demand for lithium carbonate in power batteries and energy storage is strong. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to rise to about 60% in November - December, and the energy - storage battery installation growth rate in 2026 is expected to exceed 40%. Recently, the capital has also accelerated the upward trend. [1] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of lithium carbonate futures increased significantly. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycle charts show a strong trend, with a long - short dividing line at 86,580 yuan/ton. [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectation", the operation should be mainly based on buying on dips. Do not trade against the trend when the futures price retraces. [2] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures rose strongly after the lunch break. The main 2601 contract increased by 4.57% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 9,390 yuan/ton, hitting the highest level since July 30. [9] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the information from the meeting of the actual controller of the silicone monomer factory and the price increase of the silicone spot, the main 2601 contract of industrial silicon rose sharply. However, the current fundamental supply - demand of industrial silicon is weak, and the industry inventory is high. [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of industrial silicon futures increased significantly. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycle charts show a strong trend, with a long - short dividing line at 8,945 yuan/ton. [9] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Affected by policies and news, the price of industrial silicon futures fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast. [9] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures followed the upward trend of industrial silicon and rose rapidly after the lunch break. The main 2601 contract increased by 4.63% compared to the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 54,625 yuan/ton. [12] - **Core Logic**: The polysilicon followed the upward trend of industrial silicon. The fundamental supply - demand of polysilicon is weak, and the main focus is on the establishment of the state - reserve platform and relevant announcements of polysilicon enterprises. The production in November is expected to be 127,000 tons, and the inventory has slightly increased recently. [12][15] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall trading volume of polysilicon futures decreased. The 5 - minute and 2 - hour cycle charts show a strong trend, with a long - short dividing line at 52,210 yuan/ton. [15] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Affected by policies and news, the price of polysilicon futures fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see. You can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast. [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the automotive industry [7] Core Insights - The adjustment in vehicle purchase tax exemption requirements for new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to drive higher quality development in the industry, pushing manufacturers to enhance technology and efficiency [1][5] - The market for NEVs is showing strong performance, with record sales in September, indicating a positive outlook for Q4 [4] Summary by Sections NEV Tax Policy Changes - The new tax exemption requirements for NEVs will enforce stricter energy consumption standards and introduce range requirements for hybrid vehicles, leading to a competitive advantage for compliant models [1][2] Electric Vehicle Standards - The energy consumption limits for pure electric vehicles have been tightened, with a 10% increase in the upper limit for vehicles weighing under 1090 kg and a 17% increase for heavier models [2] Hybrid Vehicle Requirements - New standards mandate that plug-in hybrid vehicles must have an electric range of at least 100 km, with stricter energy consumption requirements compared to previous standards [3] Market Performance - September saw record wholesale and retail sales for passenger vehicles, with NEV penetration rates reaching 53.5% for wholesale and 57.8% for retail, indicating robust market demand [4] Industry Outlook - The report anticipates a 5% to 10% year-on-year growth in industry sales for Q4, driven by new vehicle launches and the impact of subsidy adjustments [4][5] Recommended Companies - The report recommends leading companies with strong R&D capabilities, including BYD, Geely, Xpeng, and Li Auto, as potential investment opportunities [10][14]

Core Insights - The new policy for electric vehicle (EV) purchase tax exemptions will continue into 2026-2027, but with stricter technical requirements for eligibility [3][5][21] Group 1: Policy Changes - The vehicle purchase tax exemption for new energy vehicles (NEVs) will be reduced by half, with a maximum tax reduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle during 2026-2027 [5][14] - The previous full exemption of up to 30,000 yuan for NEVs purchased in 2024-2025 will no longer apply [5][14] Group 2: Technical Requirements - New regulations emphasize higher technical standards for NEVs to qualify for tax exemptions, including specific limits on energy consumption for electric vehicles [8][10] - Plug-in hybrid vehicles must have a pure electric driving range of at least 100 kilometers, which is a stricter requirement compared to previous standards [11][12] - Additional limits on fuel consumption and energy consumption for hybrid models have been established, promoting efficiency [12] Group 3: Market Implications - The upcoming changes are expected to increase the cost of purchasing NEVs in the near term, prompting manufacturers to ramp up promotions in the last quarter of the year [14][15] - The market is anticipated to see advancements in technology, such as driver assistance features and battery technology, which may influence consumer decisions [15][19] - Consumers are advised to consider their personal circumstances when deciding whether to purchase now or wait for potential technological breakthroughs next year [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the updated policies regarding the exemption of vehicle purchase tax for new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China, highlighting the eligibility criteria and the timeline for tax exemptions and reductions [3][4]. Group 1: Tax Exemption Eligibility - Not all new energy vehicles are eligible for tax exemption; they must be listed in the "Catalog of New Energy Vehicles Eligible for Purchase Tax Exemption" published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Taxation Administration [3]. - Eligible vehicle types include pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles (including range-extended), and fuel cell vehicles, which must meet specific technical requirements [3]. Group 2: Tax Exemption Timeline - From January 1, 2024, to December 31, 2025, the purchase of new energy vehicles will be exempt from vehicle purchase tax, with a maximum exemption of 30,000 yuan per vehicle [4]. - From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, the purchase tax will be halved, with a maximum reduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle [4]. Group 3: Sales and Tax Calculation - When selling "battery swap mode" new energy vehicles, the sales of vehicles without batteries and the batteries themselves must be accounted for separately, and invoices must be issued accordingly [5]. - The purchase date for tax exemption is determined by the date on the unified invoice or customs tax payment document, not by the vehicle pickup date or registration date [6]. - For example, if a vehicle is sold for 500,000 yuan (excluding VAT) and the applicable tax exemption limit is 30,000 yuan, the taxable amount would be 20,000 yuan, resulting in a payable vehicle purchase tax of 20,000 - 30,000 = 20,000 yuan [6].