Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The futures prices of chemical products rose across the board yesterday. Driven by market sentiment, the olefin sector at the bottom rebounded. The strengthening support from the cost side also contributed to the rise. However, the supply - demand contradiction of polyolefins has not been alleviated, which may continue to suppress the market prices [3] - For PE, the supply remains high, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in inventory accumulation and large de - stocking pressure. Although the cost support is strengthening, the supply - demand contradiction continues to suppress the price [3] - For PP, the short - term supply - demand fundamental variables are limited. The supply is still under pressure, and the demand is weak. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to the cost - side disturbances and supply - side maintenance changes [4] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6408元/吨（+112），PP主力合约收盘价为6278元/吨（+120），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6140元/吨（+20），LL华北基差为 - 208元/吨（-112），LL华东基差为 - 38元/吨（-112），PP华东基差为 - 138元/吨（-100） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1] - PE油制生产利润为 - 109.2元/吨（-53.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 599.2元/吨（-53.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 809.1元/吨（-95.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the report 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 157.4元/吨（-29.9），PP进口利润为 - 301.5元/吨（-29.9），PP出口利润为 - 2.6美元/吨（+3.8） [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the report Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Although the market rebounds driven by short - term sentiment, the game between the cost side and the supply - demand contradiction leads to insufficient upward drive, and the rebound height is expected to be limited [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Inter - variety: Shorten the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated June 12, 2025 [1] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for polyolefins, crude oil fuel oil, PTA, MEG, urea, industrial silicon, pulp, and glass soda ash [2] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7080 | 7075 | 7096 | 7060 | 3 | 0.04 | 111392 | -1662 | | Plastic 2605 | 7078 | 7066 | 7090 | 7064 | 0 | 0.00 | 704 | 39 | | Plastic 2509 | 7105 | 7102 | 7124 | 7085 | 3 | 0.04 | 536103 | 5141 | | PP2601 | 6898 | 6908 | 6929 | 6889 | 10 | 0.14 | 78596 | 151 | | PP2605 | 6904 | 6903 | 6923 | 6891 | 2 | 0.03 | 709 | 105 | | PP2509 | 6947 | 6960 | 6983 | 6935 | 19 | 0.27 | 501412 | -10063 | [3] Market Analysis - L2509 of linear low - density polyethylene opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed up at 7102 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.04%), with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 5141 to 536,103 lots - PP rose in the afternoon, reaching 6982 yuan/ton and then falling back. The main contract closed at 6960 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan, a gain of 0.27%, with open interest decreasing by 10,063 lots to 501,400 lots - The warming of linear and PP futures boosted the market atmosphere. As some ex - factory prices were adjusted, traders raised their quotes, and end - users made moderate restocking [4] Group 3: Industry News - On June 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 830,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 2.92%. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons - Most PP market prices were stable, with some slightly increasing. Overall trading was limited. The mainstream price of North China drawing materials in the morning was 7000 - 7140 yuan/ton, in East China was 7000 - 7180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7050 - 7230 yuan/ton - Some PE market prices increased. In North China, some linear PE rose 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE rose 50 yuan/ton, and low - pressure PE had individual changes of 20 - 50 yuan/ton; in East China, high - pressure and low - pressure PE partially increased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and linear PE had individual changes of 10 - 100 yuan/ton; in South China, linear PE partially rose 10 - 80 yuan/ton, low - pressure PE had individual changes of 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and high - pressure PE partially rose 20 - 100 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7070 - 7300 yuan/ton, in East China was 7120 - 7600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7280 - 7550 yuan/ton [5] Group 4: Core Viewpoint - Currently, the loss of upstream plant maintenance is still at a high level. According to the released maintenance plans, the planned maintenance volume after June will decline month - on - month, and the bullish support from the supply reduction caused by maintenance will weaken. Coupled with the new capacity expansion plan, the pressure on the supply side will rise again - Demand is under double pressure from seasonal weakness and unclear expectations of tariff policies - The cost side is supported by the peak fuel consumption season in the United States, with a slight increase in cost support. However, the supply - demand contradiction in polyolefins still exists, and the rebound space is limited [4]