行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 一、行情回顾与展望 连塑 L2509 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry dated June 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Research Team - The energy and chemical research team includes Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), Li Jie (crude oil and fuel oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (urea, industrial silicon), Liu Youran (pulp), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [2] Group 3: Futures Market Quotes - In the futures market, plastics and PP contracts generally declined. For example, plastic 2601 closed at 7199 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan (-2.15%); plastic 2605 closed at 7182 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan (-2.26%); plastic 2509 closed at 7250 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan (-2.32%); PP2601 closed at 7027 yuan/ton, down 166 yuan (-2.31%); PP2605 closed at 7006 yuan/ton, down 179 yuan (-2.49%); PP2509 closed at 7074 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan (-2.25%) [3] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - The main plastic contract L2509 opened low, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7250 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan (-2.32%), with a trading volume of 595,000 lots and a decrease in open interest by 3309 to 474,026 lots. The main PP contract closed at 7074 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan (-2.25%), with a decrease in open interest by 40,075 lots to 448,435 lots. The weak futures market dampened market trading sentiment. On the supply side, there were few new maintenance plans, and the loss of production due to plant maintenance decreased. The 500,000 - ton/year fourth - line of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's PP project was planned to be put into operation on June 19, and domestic supply showed an increasing trend. The downstream industry has entered the traditional off - season, with significantly insufficient new orders. Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the construction progress of terminal projects slowed down. With high raw material prices and weak downstream industry profits, the enthusiasm for raw material procurement was difficult to significantly improve. The basis of plastic and PP slightly rebounded but remained low. The easing of the Middle East conflict led to a decline in crude oil premiums, and polyolefins prices fell from high levels. Attention should be paid to changes in cost - side drivers [4] Group 5: Industry News - On June 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (-3.70%) from the previous working day, compared with 745,000 tons in the same period last year. PE market prices partially declined. In North China, some linear PE prices fell by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, some low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some linear PE prices fell by 20 - 150 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear and low - pressure PE prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some high - pressure PE prices fell by 50 - 200 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7300 - 7550 yuan/ton, in East China was 7400 - 7800 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7450 - 7750 yuan/ton. PP market prices decreased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton. The volatile decline of futures prices suppressed the trading atmosphere in the market. Most traders' quotes declined, with some resources dropping significantly by 80 - 100 yuan/ton. Downstream orders were poor, and after some previous purchases, most downstream enterprises maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and overall trading was relatively poor. The mainstream price of North China drawn PP in the morning was 7080 - 7230 yuan/ton, in East China was 7130 - 7280 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7160 - 7300 yuan/ton [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: June 19, 2025 [2] Market Conditions - Futures Market: L2509 opened higher, fluctuated upwards during the session, and closed up at 7,418 yuan/ton, up 124 yuan/ton (1.7%), with a trading volume of 430,000 lots and a decrease of 9,972 lots in positions to 431,735 lots. PP2509 closed at 7,214 yuan/ton, up 107 yuan (1.51%), with an increase of 21,500 lots in positions to 477,100 lots [5]. - Spot Market: In the spot market, the price of LLDPE in North China was in the range of 7,330 - 7,480 yuan/ton, in East China 7,400 - 7,800 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,550 - 7,750 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of drawn - wire PP in North China was 7,140 - 7,280 yuan/ton, in East China 7,200 - 7,270 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,150 - 7,330 yuan/ton [5]. Core Viewpoint - Polyolefins are in a stage of strong cost and weak supply - demand game. In the short term, the cost logic supports the upward movement of the polyolefin price center, but downstream demand is difficult to follow up, and the basis of plastics and PP continues to weaken. Attention should be paid to news guidance, and be vigilant against the risk of high - level decline of polyolefins due to the fading of geopolitical risk premium [6]. Industry News - On June 18, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons (1.88%) from the previous working day, compared with 775,000 tons in the same period last year [8]. - The conflict between Israel and Iran shows no sign of easing, and Trump has no intention of nuclear talks with Iran again. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified, and European and American crude oil futures closed up more than 4% again. On June 17, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for July 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $74.84 per barrel, up $3.07 (4.28%), with a trading range of $71 - $75.54; the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $76.45 per barrel, up $3.22 (4.40%), with a trading range of $72.66 - $77.20 [8][9]. - The PE market price continued to rise. In North China, some linear PE prices increased by 30 - 100 yuan/ton, some high - pressure PE prices by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure PE prices by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure PE prices increased by 50 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low - pressure and linear PE prices by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, some linear, low - pressure, and high - pressure PE prices increased by 20 - 100 yuan/ton [9].

行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 12 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...