聚烯烃日报日报 | 2026-01-09 塑料基差走强，下游开工仍偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6628元/吨（-14），PP主力合约收盘价为6484元/吨（-2），LL华北现货为6520 元/吨（+20），LL华东现货为6600元/吨（+70），PP华东现货为6250元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-108元/吨（+34）， LL华东基差为-28元/吨（+84）， PP华东基差为-234元/吨（+2）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.7%（+0.4%），PP开工率为75.5%（-1.3%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为263.3元/吨（+88.6），PP油制生产利润为-256.7元/吨（+88.6），PDH制PP生产利 润为-765.6元/吨（+49.8）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为21.6元/吨（-179.3），PP进口利润为-300.5元/吨（-21.3），PP出口利润为-34.1美元/吨（-2.6）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为37.9%（-1.1%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（+0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.9%（-0.2%），PP下游 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin industry will face continuous capacity pressure in 2026, with a pattern of "low in the first half and high in the second half" for capacity commissioning. The overall price is expected to be weak, with a "high in the first half and low in the second half" rhythm [4][5]. - The key factors affecting the market include capacity commissioning progress, plant operating rates, and imports and exports [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price, Basis, and Calendar Spread**: In 2025, polyolefin prices showed different trends in each quarter. The first - quarter was relatively stable, the second - quarter was affected by macro - events and showed wide - range fluctuations, the third - quarter was in a state of oscillation, and the fourth - quarter experienced a significant decline. The basis and calendar spreads of PP and L also had corresponding changes, mainly affected by factors such as capacity commissioning, demand, and trade conflicts [3][9][10]. - **Disk Spread Review**: The L - PP spread showed a trend of first declining and then recovering. The core reason was the different supply pressures of PP and the demand performance of L [34]. - **Disk Profit**: The methanol price showed a downward trend, and the MTO disk profit first improved and then deteriorated. The production profit of polyolefins was generally better than that of the previous year, but the PE profit weakened significantly at the end of the year [42][95]. 3.2 Capacity Commissioning is the Main Theme - **Domestic Capacity Commissioning**: Both PP and PE are in the capacity commissioning cycle. From 2026 - 2030, the planned new capacity of PP will exceed 20 million tons, and that of PE will exceed 20 million tons. The commissioning rhythm in 2026 is "low in the first half and high in the second half" [64][86]. - **Foreign Capacity Commissioning**: In 2025, the overseas capacity commissioning of PE was about 2.5 million tons, and there are many commissioning plans in 2026, but the actual implementation may fall short of expectations. The overseas capacity commissioning pressure of PP is relatively small [84][87]. - **Production - end Profit**: The cost side was differentiated, and the production profit was generally better than that of the previous year, especially for the coal - based production. However, the PE profit weakened significantly at the end of the year [95]. - **Output Surge**: In 2025, the output of both PP and PE increased significantly. The expected annual output of PP is 40.3053 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.96%. The expected annual output of PE is 33.1308 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.69% [138][141]. - **Imports and Exports**: For PP, the import and export pattern reversed in 2025, with a significant decrease in net imports. For PE, the import pressure remained high, and the import volume was still large [145][164]. 3.3 Demand Side - **PP Demand**: The demand for PP was high in the first half and low in the second half. After the Spring Festival, the downstream demand recovered rapidly, but from the second quarter, the demand gradually weakened, mainly affected by export shocks and the slowdown of domestic economic demand [185]. - **PE Demand**: The demand for PE was relatively rigid, with obvious seasonality. The demand was strong during the peak seasons of mulch film and greenhouse film, but faced pressure during the off - seasons [193]. 3.4 Inventory - **PP Inventory**: The PP inventory remained at a high level throughout the year. After the Spring Festival, the inventory increased seasonally, and then decreased during the peak demand season in March. From the second quarter, the inventory basically remained at a high level in previous years [213]. - **PE Inventory**: At the end of 2024, the LLDPE inventory was low. After the Spring Festival, the inventory was tight due to the peak demand season of agricultural films, and then gradually eased [225]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PP Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2026, the supply growth rate of PP will slow down, but the demand still needs to reach a high level to achieve supply - demand balance. The supply - demand pressure is still large, and the pressure in the first half of the year is less than that in the second half [237][240]. - **PE Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In 2026, both the supply and demand of PE will slow down, and the inventory accumulation pattern will continue. Attention should be paid to the commissioning rhythm and the realization of peak demand seasons. The demand for PE is more resilient than that for PP [249][250].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The futures prices of chemical products rose across the board yesterday. Driven by market sentiment, the olefin sector at the bottom rebounded. The strengthening support from the cost side also contributed to the rise. However, the supply - demand contradiction of polyolefins has not been alleviated, which may continue to suppress the market prices [3] - For PE, the supply remains high, and the demand is in the off - season, resulting in inventory accumulation and large de - stocking pressure. Although the cost support is strengthening, the supply - demand contradiction continues to suppress the price [3] - For PP, the short - term supply - demand fundamental variables are limited. The supply is still under pressure, and the demand is weak. The short - term rebound drive is limited, and attention should be paid to the cost - side disturbances and supply - side maintenance changes [4] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为6408元/吨（+112），PP主力合约收盘价为6278元/吨（+120），LL华北现货为6200元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6370元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6140元/吨（+20），LL华北基差为 - 208元/吨（-112），LL华东基差为 - 38元/吨（-112），PP华东基差为 - 138元/吨（-100） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为83.9%（-0.2%），PP开工率为79.4%（+1.1%） [1] - PE油制生产利润为 - 109.2元/吨（-53.3），PP油制生产利润为 - 599.2元/吨（-53.3），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 809.1元/吨（-95.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the report 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 157.4元/吨（-29.9），PP进口利润为 - 301.5元/吨（-29.9），PP出口利润为 - 2.6美元/吨（+3.8） [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为45.2%（-1.2%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.0%（-0.6%），PP下游塑编开工率为44.0%（-0.1%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为63.2%（+0.3%） [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the report Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Although the market rebounds driven by short - term sentiment, the game between the cost side and the supply - demand contradiction leads to insufficient upward drive, and the rebound height is expected to be limited [5] - Inter - period: None [5] - Inter - variety: Shorten the L05 - PP05 spread when it is high [5]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: December 25, 2025 - Industry: Polyolefin [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of the polyolefin market is increasing as the maintenance loss of devices in December has declined significantly and the previously shut - down devices are restarting. The demand is weak due to the seasonal off - season. The rebound of polyolefin futures should be treated with a bearish view [4]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The plastic 2601 contract opened at 6256 yuan/ton, closed at 6350 yuan/ton, up 1.73% with a position decrease of 11664 lots to 50532 lots. The plastic 2605 contract opened at 6310 yuan/ton, closed at 6408 yuan/ton, up 1.99% with a position decrease of 41207 lots to 540352 lots. The plastic 2609 contract opened at 6342 yuan/ton, closed at 6445 yuan/ton, up 1.93% with a position increase of 292 lots to 23865 lots. The PP2601 contract opened at 6062 yuan/ton, closed at 6187 yuan/ton, up 1.89% with a position decrease of 15404 lots to 61519 lots. The PP2605 contract opened at 6166 yuan/ton, closed at 6278 yuan/ton, up 1.93% with a position decrease of 18588 lots to 539752 lots. The PP2609 contract opened at 6203 yuan/ton, closed at 6300 yuan/ton, up 1.55% with a position increase of 5439 lots to 39130 lots [3]. - **Market Situation Analysis**: The supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The downstream load of PE has mostly declined, and although the PP start - up rate is basically stable, factories are mainly digesting inventory and have low willingness to make new purchases. The futures market has a slight increase, but the spot price remains weak, and downstream buyers are mostly on the sidelines [4]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On December 24, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 590,000 tons in the same period last year [5]. - **PE Market**: The PE market prices have partially declined. The LLDPE prices in North China are in the range of 6140 - 6400 yuan/ton, in East China 6230 - 6700 yuan/ton, and in South China 6250 - 6650 yuan/ton [5]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market is temporarily in the range of 5700 - 5730 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply is abundant, and the overall trading improvement is not obvious [5]. - **PP Market**: The PP market has a slight increase. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire are in the range of 5920 - 6060 yuan/ton, in East China 6020 - 6200 yuan/ton, and in South China 6100 - 6330 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][10][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the PX profit has significantly strengthened due to the polyester restocking logic and the marginal improvement expectations for PX and PTA supply and demand next year. The price spread between PX (China main port) and naphtha (Japan) has recovered from $282.92/ton on December 12 to $305.12/ton on December 18 [2] - The oil and petrochemical index performed well this week, increasing by 1.60% compared to last week, with other petrochemical sectors showing the best performance within the oil and petrochemical sector, rising by 5.14% [5] - The report indicates a decline in crude oil prices, with U.S. crude oil inventories rising while gasoline inventories decreased [6][9] Summary by Sections Crude Oil - Crude oil prices have decreased, with Brent crude futures closing at $60.07/barrel, reflecting a -1.8% change from last week [7] - U.S. crude oil and petroleum product inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 2,139 thousand barrels, while gasoline inventories saw a decrease of 1,921 thousand barrels [11] Polyester - The price spread for polyester filament yarn has decreased, with inventory days for Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines increasing, and weaving machine operating rates declining [12][17] - The latest data shows that the prices for polyester filament yarn POY, DTY, and FDY are stable at 6,350, 7,650, and 6,570 CNY/ton respectively, with price spreads decreasing by 28, 78, and 88 CNY/ton compared to last week [14] Olefins - The report notes a decline in sample PE spot prices, with the current price at 7,160 CNY/ton, down by 2.72% from last week [24] - The petrochemical inventory for polyolefins stands at 660,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For plastics, the supply - demand drive is weak, and the current LLDPE weighted profit is at a low level in the same period but still has room to decline. With the end of the peak season for northern shed films and the anti - seasonal inventory accumulation, there is high pressure on destocking. High - production cycles combined with seasonal weakening of supply and demand suggest that previous short positions can be held, and some can be reduced [4]. - For PP, attention should be paid to the dynamics of PDH devices. Although the weighted profit has room to decline, the marginal device PDH profit has limited room for further compression, increasing the expectation of maintenance. Given the high inventory, previous short positions can be held, and some can be closed at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastics Market Review - This week, plastics opened flat and closed lower, with three consecutive negative weekly lines. It opened at 6486 on Monday, reached a weekly high of 6619, then continued the downward trend of last week, hitting a new low of 6314 this year on Friday, and finally closed at 6320 yuan/ton (down 166 week - on - week), with an amplitude of 305 points [3][12]. Capital - As of this Friday, the main PE positions were 59.8 million lots, showing accelerated position - building [17]. Basis - As of this Friday, the main plastics spread was - 70 yuan/ton [20]. Month - to - Month Spread - As of this Friday, the L59 spread was - 47 yuan/ton [23]. Cross - Variety Spread - As of this Friday, the LP05 spread was 107 yuan/ton (down 211 week - on - week), and the MTO05 spread was - 231 yuan/ton (down 102 week - on - week) [28]. Valuation - As of this Friday, the LLDPE weighted profit was - 248 yuan/ton (+59), with a significant compression in MTO - based profit [31]. Supply - This week, PE production was 680,000 tons (down 0.2 week - on - week), with a capacity utilization rate of 84% and a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.2%. Next week, due to the shutdown of some devices for maintenance, the production is expected to be 668,500 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons from this week [44]. Import and Export - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 11.01 million tons (down 3.4% year - on - year). In October, the import volume was 1.01 million tons (down 16% year - on - year and 1% month - on - month). The expected import volume in December is 1.16 million tons [47]. - From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 910,000 tons (up 30% year - on - year). In October, the export volume was 80,000 tons (up 35% year - on - year and down 16% month - on - month). The expected export volume in November is 94,000 tons [50]. Demand - This week, the PE downstream capacity utilization rate was 42%, showing a four - week decline. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PE increased by 11% year - on - year. The total retail sales of social consumer goods from January to November 2025 were 45.6 trillion yuan (a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.0%), with a continuous five - month decline in the cumulative year - on - year growth rate [63]. - The downstream agricultural film operating rate was 45% (down 1.2 pct), showing a five - week decline. The PE packaging film operating rate was 49% (down 0.6 pct), showing a four - week decline [65]. Inventory - As of this Friday, the polyolefin petrochemical inventory was 660,000 tons (up 6.5 year - on - year) [76]. - This week, the PE enterprise inventory was 490,000 tons (up 2 week - on - week and 10 year - on - year), remaining at a high level in the same period. The PE social inventory was 470,000 tons (up 1.2 week - on - week and 5 year - on - year). The PE commercial inventory was 990,000 tons (up 3 week - on - week and 15 year - on - year) [79][82][85]. PP Market Review - This week, PP fluctuated at a low level, with a positive weekly line. It opened 9 points higher at 6178 on Monday, briefly reached a weekly low of 6165, then quickly rose and fell back, with a maximum of 6315. From Tuesday to Friday, it fluctuated narrowly around 6250, and finally closed at 6213 (up 45 week - on - week), with an amplitude of 150 points [7][15]. Capital - No relevant information provided. Basis - As of this Friday, the main PP spread was - 34 yuan/ton [20]. Month - to - Month Spread - As of this Friday, the PP59 spread was - 27 yuan/ton [23]. Cross - Variety Spread - As of this Friday, the LP05 spread was 107 yuan/ton (down 211 week - on - week), and the MTO05 spread was - 231 yuan/ton (down 102 week - on - week) [28]. Valuation - As of this Friday, the PP weighted profit was - 692 yuan/ton (+96), with a significant compression in PDH and externally - purchased propylene - based profit [31]. Supply - This week, PP production was 820,000 tons (up 1 week - on - week), with a capacity utilization rate of 79%. Next week, the total PP production in China is estimated to be 810,000 tons, showing a decline from this week due to an increase in maintenance plans [53]. Import and Export - From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 2.73 million tons (down 9% year - on - year). In October, the PP import volume was 270,000 tons (down 12% year - on - year and 6% month - on - month) [58]. - From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 2.58 million tons (up 27% year - on - year). In October, the PP export volume was 240,000 tons (up 19% year - on - year and down 1% month - on - month) [60]. Demand - This week, the PP downstream operating rate was 54%, ending a ten - week increase, with only BOPP showing a month - on - month increase. From January to October 2025, the apparent consumption of PP increased by 13.1% year - on - year. In October, the apparent consumption of PP was 3.54 million tons [68]. - This week, the plastic braiding operating rate was 44%, and the BOPP operating rate was 63%, showing an eleven - week increase [71]. Inventory - This week, the PP enterprise inventory was 540,000 tons (up 0.1 week - on - week and 11 year - on - year), remaining at a high level in the same period. The PP trader inventory was 200,000 tons (down 0.9 week - on - week and up 7 year - on - year), remaining at a high level in the same period. The PP commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (down 0.9 week - on - week and up 19 year - on - year) [79][82][85]. Production Plan - In 2025 and 2026, there are large - scale production plans for PE and PP devices, indicating that 2026 is still in a high - production cycle [40][41].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-15 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE:国资委发文抵制内卷，盘面价格止跌反弹 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给 中性 （1）本周，我国聚乙烯产量总计在68.48万吨，较上周增加2.17%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率84.11%，较上周期增加了0.06个百分点。本周期 装置情况来看，周内新增独山子石化两套全密度装置检修，不过部分存量装置重启，因此产能利用率环比上周窄幅增加。 需求 偏多 （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-1.2%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-1.7%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.6%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平均开工率较前期-0.5%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-0.9%；PE管材开工率较前期一致；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.5%；PE中空开工率较前期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is facing a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand. For PE, the arrival of the off - season and continuous supply release lead to a supply - surplus and demand - weak pattern. For PP, the weak supply - demand situation persists in the short term, with inventory accumulation and weak spot prices [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 6561 yuan/ton (+4), the PP main contract closed at 6162 yuan/ton (-30), LL North China spot was 6530 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot was 6700 yuan/ton (-50), PP East China spot was 6230 yuan/ton (-80), LL North China basis was -31 yuan/ton (-74), LL East China basis was 139 yuan/ton (-54), and PP East China basis was 68 yuan/ton (-50) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.1% (-0.5%), PP operating rate was 77.6% (-0.5%). PE oil - based production profit was 285.2 yuan/ton (+46.0), PP oil - based production profit was -394.8 yuan/ton (+46.0), PDH - made PP production profit was -667.6 yuan/ton (+14.1) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was 7.0 yuan/ton (+5.8), PP import profit was -220.5 yuan/ton (+5.6), PP export profit was -18.4 US dollars/ton (-0.7) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 48.1% (-0.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 50.2% (-0.5%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 44.1% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 62.6% (+0.0%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content Strategies - Unilateral: Be cautiously bearish on LLDPE; Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards PP, with short - term weak and volatile trends. - Inter - period: No strategy provided. - Inter - variety: Short the spread of L01 - PP01 when it is high [4]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Views - PE is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, lacking upward drivers. The supply is expected to remain loose due to limited future device maintenance and the restart of previously shut - down devices, while the demand is approaching the end of the peak season with limited future growth potential. The LLDPE social inventory has a high absolute level, and the de - stocking expectation is weak, resulting in large supply - demand pressure [1]. - In the short term, PE is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The recent sharp decline in the PE disk is due to the weak performance of LLDPE spot, the lack of follow - up in the spot market during the previous disk rise, and the shift of the PE fundamentals to a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand [5]. - In the long - term, the supply pressure of LLDPE may ease next year, but the sharp increase in the supply of non - standard products may be transmitted to LLDPE and suppress its price [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply: Future PE device maintenance is expected to be limited, and the restart of previously shut - down devices will increase the supply, keeping it loose. - Demand: The peak season of downstream demand is ending, and the agricultural film operating rate is declining, with limited future demand growth [1]. - Inventory: The LLDPE social inventory is de - stocking, but the absolute level is still high, and the de - stocking expectation is weak under the pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Expected to maintain an oscillating pattern. - Price range: L2601 is between 6600 - 6900. - Strategy suggestion: Consider selling call options [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Basis strategy: None for now. - Spread strategy: 1 - 5 reverse spread. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Short - term focus on the narrowing of the L - P spread [11]. - Hedging strategy for inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs. - Hedging strategy for procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Negative information: Zhejiang Petrochemical's 300,000 - ton LDPE/EVA device is planned to start production soon [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - This week's spot market transactions were generally weak, but there was speculative replenishment by downstream enterprises when the disk dropped sharply on Thursday. - Attention should be paid to the Central Economic Work Conference on December 8th and the National Fiscal Work Conference [14][17]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: After a rebound last week, the PE disk has entered a downward oscillating trend again. - Capital movement: The position of the 01 contract has decreased as it approaches delivery. There was no significant change in the top - five long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list. The net short position of the top - five profitable seats increased slightly, and the long positions of the main profitable seats decreased this week, indicating strong bearish sentiment in the market [19]. - Basis structure: Due to the continuous pessimistic industrial sentiment, the spot price was suppressed, causing a sharp decline in the disk on Thursday and Friday, and the basis strengthened passively. As of Friday, the North China basis was 26 yuan/ton (up 85 from last week), the East China basis was 186 yuan/ton (up 95), and the South China basis was 176 yuan/ton (up 35) [23]. - Spread structure: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure because of the relatively optimistic market expectation for the future macro - situation and the limited production capacity expansion of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year, which may ease the supply - demand pressure of standard products [25]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - With the continuous weakening of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines have been compressed [29]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Supply: Although device maintenance has increased recently, the high existing production capacity and the commissioning of multiple devices in the fourth quarter have made it difficult to relieve the supply pressure. Overseas supply - demand is also weak, and imports are expected to increase, further increasing the total supply. - Demand: At the end of the year, the agricultural film operating rate is expected to decline, weakening the rigid support on the demand side and intensifying the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [37]. 5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 84.05% (- 0.46%). Some devices such as Dushanzi Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical entered maintenance this week, causing a slight decline in the operating rate. The operating rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level due to limited planned maintenance at the end of the year. Zhejiang Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA device is expected to start production soon, and Yulong Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA device is expected to start production early next year, indicating large supply pressure [43]. 5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: The PE price in the US market has stabilized and rebounded, and the offers from the US have decreased recently. Although imports are expected to increase slightly from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, in the long - run, PE imports are expected to be gradually replaced by domestic supply. - Export: Enterprises have a high enthusiasm for expanding export channels this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [52]. 5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The current average operating rate of PE downstream industries is 44.3% (- 0.54%). Among them, the agricultural film operating rate is 48.02% (- 0.92%), the packaging film operating rate is 50.22% (- 0.48%), the pipe operating rate is 31.83% (0%), the injection molding operating rate is 49.55% (- 0.5%), the hollow operating rate is 38.38% (- 0.74%), and the drawing operating rate is 33.02% (- 1.1%). The comprehensive operating rate of PE has declined this week, especially the agricultural film production has entered the off - season with an obvious decline in the operating rate. The future growth space of PE demand is limited, intensifying the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; short-term cost support, limited rebound space under weak supply-demand pattern, likely to fluctuate in the bottom range [4] - Inter-period: LL01 - 05 sell high and buy low; PP01 - 05 sell high and buy low [4] - Inter-variety: None [4] Core Viewpoints - PE faces supply pressure due to low maintenance, new capacity release, and entering the demand off-season, resulting in a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited short-term rebound space [2] - PP has a short-term weak supply-demand situation, with supply pressure from existing devices and insufficient demand follow - up. The expected rebound height of the futures market is limited, and attention should be paid to cost disturbances [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures display plastic and polypropylene main contracts and LL East China basis [11][8] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit (crude oil), PE capacity utilization rate, PP production profit (crude oil), PP production profit (PDH method), polypropylene capacity utilization rate, and PP weekly output are presented [16][19][25] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - HD injection - LL East China, HD blow - molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection - drawn wire East China price differences are shown [6][29][32] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL and PP import and export profits, as well as price differences between overseas regions and China, are provided [37][41][57] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and winding film operating rates, PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, and injection molding operating rates, and PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP production gross margins are presented [58][63][70] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - PE and PP inventory in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports are shown [72][77][81]