Group 1: General Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: Plastic 2601 opened at 7352 yuan/ton, closed at 7334 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.14%); Plastic 2605 opened at 7346 yuan/ton, closed at 7312 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-0.40%); Plastic 2509 opened at 7308 yuan/ton, closed at 7292 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.04%); PP2601 opened at 7073 yuan/ton, closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (-0.49%); PP2605 opened at 7075 yuan/ton, closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton (-0.44%); PP2509 opened at 7051 yuan/ton, closed at 7026 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (-0.51) [5] Group 3: Market Analysis - Market Performance: Futures prices fluctuated downward, suppressing the spot market atmosphere. Traders were eager to sell, but downstream factories' enthusiasm for replenishing stocks did not improve, mainly purchasing in small quantities at low prices [6] - Supply Side: Upstream device operating loads continued to increase. Although PP maintenance losses were still at a high level, with the restart of previously shut - down devices and few new maintenance devices, the impact of maintenance decreased and the expectation of new capacity expansion increased. PE had no new plans, and after the end of the centralized maintenance period, the operating load and output continued to increase. Next week, due to more shut - down and planned shut - down devices, the supply pressure was relatively neutral [6] - Downstream Consumption: The operating loads of agricultural film, plastic weaving, and BOPP increased month - on - month. Some enterprises' orders improved, but the expectation for the peak season was weaker year - on - year [6] - Market Outlook: During the macro - window period, the market returned to fundamentals. A unilateral oscillation mindset was adopted. There was an expectation of improvement in supply - demand margins during the off - peak to peak season transition. Attention should be paid to the improvement of demand in the second half of the month and the actual support of inventory reduction [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On August 18, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 825,000 tons, a 7.84% increase (60,000 tons) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 830,000 tons [7] - PE Market Price: The PE market price was weakly adjusted. The LLDPE price in North China was 7200 - 7430 yuan/ton, in East China was 7260 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7380 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] - Propylene Market Price: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. There were both device startups and shutdowns, and the supply side was mixed. Production enterprises' quotes were mostly slightly increased, and downstream factories purchased at low prices. The market was mainly a game between supply and demand [7] - PP Market Price: The PP market declined slightly. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6900 - 7020 yuan/ton, in East China was 6960 - 7080 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6880 - 7120 yuan/ton [8]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The futures market opened higher and fluctuated upwards, boosting market sentiment. Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and downstream buyers replenished stocks according to orders. However, the supply pressure continued, and new PE and PP production facilities were planned to be put into operation in the third quarter. The demand was weak and needed improvement, and the downstream operating load remained low overall. It was expected that the demand would gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month, but the downstream enterprises mainly maintained a low - inventory strategy, and the driving force for active replenishment was limited. The policy - driven market led the polyolefins to follow, but the loose fundamental pattern would continue to restrict their upward space. After the digestion of the anti - involution sentiment, the polyolefins would return to a weak and volatile operation [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The L2509 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated upwards during the session, and finally closed at 7,321 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (0.45%). The trading volume was 167,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,020 to 291,496 lots. The PP main contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.17%), and the open interest decreased by 7,127 to 251,400 lots [6] - **Supply**: In the third quarter, new PE production facilities of Jilin Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and Guangxi Petrochemical were planned to be put into operation. The second - phase project of Ningbo Daxie with a total annual production capacity of 900,000 tons was expected to be launched, which would have a significant impact on the supply side [6] - **Demand**: The downstream operating load remained low overall. Although the operating rate of the agricultural film industry rebounded from a low level, the demand followed up slowly. The orders in the construction field were mediocre, and the operating rates of the pipe and plastic weaving industries were at historical lows in the same period. The demand for daily - use injection - molded products increased slightly month - on - month [6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 6, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.48%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market prices partially increased. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 7,170 - 7,450 yuan/ton, in East China 7,230 - 7,650 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,320 - 7,650 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The propylene market price in Shandong increased significantly. As of the 12 - o'clock closing, the reference price was 6,250 - 6,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous day. The temporary shutdown of some supply facilities boosted the operators' sentiment, and enterprises mainly raised their offers. The downstream followed up actively, the premium range of actual orders expanded, and the trading center shifted significantly upwards [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was stable with a slight upward trend, and some prices increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of drawn PP in North China were in the range of 6,940 - 7,080 yuan/ton, in East China 7,000 - 7,130 yuan/ton, and in South China 6,960 - 7,150 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple charts, including the LLDPE basis, PP basis, LLDPE - PP price spread, crude oil futures main - contract settlement price, inventory of two major oil companies, and the year - on - year increase or decrease rate of the two - oil inventory, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a strategy of buying on dips or implementing a 09 - 01 reverse spread. Although there are issues such as high inventory and low - season demand in the plastics industry, the upcoming release of a new round of stability - growth work plans for key industries and the elimination of old and backward devices are expected to improve market sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 24, the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%, still at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high. The coal price has risen significantly due to production checks. With new capacity coming on - stream and restart of some devices, the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. Considering the upcoming policies and market sentiment improvement, it is recommended to buy on dips or implement a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated upward with a decrease in positions, closing at 7385 yuan/ton, up 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 16,764 lots to 371,617 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 30 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 7160 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9280 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7620 - 8250 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On July 24, the number of overhaul devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 87%, a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of July 18, the PE downstream operating rate rose 0.64 percentage points to 38.51%. The agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Thursday decreased by 15,000 tons to 750,000 tons, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed has accelerated, but the inventory is still high [4] - Raw Materials: Brent crude oil's October contract oscillated around $68/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $830/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to experience a strong oscillation in the near future. It is recommended to switch to buying on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread strategy. This is due to factors such as the restart of previously shut - down production facilities, the impact of coal price increases on costs, the current situation of downstream demand, and positive market sentiment driven by government policies [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 22, the restart of maintenance devices in Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II LDPE and Shanghai SECCO HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. Due to coal production inspections, coal prices have risen significantly. With new production capacity coming on - stream and the restart of maintenance devices, and considering government policies, it is recommended to buy on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with a low of 7264 yuan/ton, a high of 7373 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7368 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, up 1.26%. The open interest decreased by 13,406 lots to 394,148 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market prices rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7130 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9240 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7660 - 8220 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 18, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 84%, currently at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 18, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the off - season, with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 790,000 tons compared to the previous day, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract fell to $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $830/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium term, the prices of polypropylene (PP) and polyethylene (PE) are bearish. In the short term, the commodity atmosphere is warm, and the prices of plastic PP are oscillating. After the macro - sentiment weakens, they are still regarded as bearish [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant production capacity release pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected new production capacity of standard - grade PE in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with a reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as the high - level maintenance in the first half may lead to a rebound in the operation rate of existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse the weak demand, so there is a lack of upward momentum [3]. - **Trading Strategies**: - **Unilateral Trading**: In the medium term, prices are bearish. In the short term, due to the warm commodity atmosphere, plastic PP prices are oscillating and will turn bearish after the macro - sentiment weakens. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily on the sidelines. - **Options**: Temporarily on the sidelines [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Inventory**: This week, both PE and PP inventories increased. PE total inventory rose by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons, and PP total inventory increased by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [6][8]. - **Production Capacity Release**: In the second half of the year, the estimated new PP production capacity is 3.15 million tons, and the new PE production capacity is 2.05 million tons for the 2509 contract and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The release of linear low - density polyethylene (LL) production capacity slows down significantly in the second half of the year [9]. - **Demand**: The demand for PE and PP is still weak year - on - year. The PE pipe industry's operating rate decreased by 3 percentage points to 29% this week, and the BOPP and injection - molding industries of PP saw their operating rates drop by 1 percentage point to 58% and 44% respectively [12][13][14]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PE products and related raw materials showed different changes. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.5% week - on - week, and the oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 [24]. - **Sino - US PE Relationship**: China is a net importer of PE. In 2024, the apparent demand for PE was 41.61 million tons, with an import volume of 13.85 million tons and an import dependence of 33%. The import volume from the US was 2.39 million tons, accounting for 17.2% of total imports and 5.7% of apparent demand [27]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PE, such as oil - based and coal - based, showed different trends. The oil - based PE profit increased by 8.5 week - on - week [24]. - **Inventory**: PE inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 34,000 tons to 1.054 million tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PE operating load is 74.68%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous period [46]. - **Import and Export**: This week, the PE import market continued the situation of weak supply and demand. The supply of import offers and quotas remained low, and the demand was weak, resulting in a light trading atmosphere [55]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various PP products and related raw materials also changed. For example, the Brent spot price increased by 2.48% week - on - week, and the PP CFR China price remained unchanged [66]. - **Sino - US PP Relationship**: China is a net importer of PP. In 2024, the apparent demand for PP was 39.37 million tons, with an import volume of 367,000 tons and an import proportion of 9%. The import volume from the US was 39,400 tons, accounting for 1.07% of total imports and 0.1% of apparent demand. The cost - end propane of PP has a high dependence on the US [69]. - **Profit**: The profits of different production methods of PP, such as oil - based, CTP, and PDH, showed different trends. The oil - based PP profit increased by 58 [66]. - **Inventory**: PP inventory increased this week, with the total inventory rising by 18,000 tons to 533,000 tons [8]. - **Production and Operation**: This week, the operating load rate of domestic PP plants was 77.42%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week and 3.76 percentage points from the same period last year [87]. - **Import and Export**: In terms of imports, overseas suppliers were cautious, and the offers were few and higher than the domestic market level, resulting in few transactions. In terms of exports, due to sufficient supply from the Middle East and emerging regions, China's PP exports had difficulty in getting large - volume orders [94][96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, PP and PE still face significant capacity expansion pressure, which eases in the fourth quarter. The expected standard - grade PE production in the second half of the year is only 500,000 tons, with reduced pressure compared to the first half. However, supply is not tightening as there was high - level maintenance in the first half, and there is an expectation of increased production from existing facilities in the second half. Terminal demand is weak year - on - year, and there are no strong factors to reverse this trend, so there is a lack of upward momentum. The strategy is mainly to sell short on rallies [3]. - In the short and medium term, a bearish view is taken on the single - side trading. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Third - quarter PP and PE capacity expansion pressure is large, easing in the fourth quarter. PE standard - grade production pressure in the second half is reduced, but supply may increase due to expected higher operation rates of existing facilities. Terminal demand is weak, lacking upward drivers [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish stance on single - side trading in the short and medium term; temporarily hold off on arbitrage and options trading [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Capacity Expansion**: For PE, the expected new capacity for the 2509 contract is 2.05 million tons, and 800,000 tons for the 2601 contract. For PP, the 2505 contract has an expected new capacity of 2.11 million tons, 2.2 million tons for the 2509 contract, and 950,000 tons for the 2601 contract. The total new PE capacity in 2025 is expected to be 5.43 million tons, and 5.26 million tons for PP [12][13][14]. - **Demand**: PE and PP demand is weak year - on - year. For PE, the current mainstream downstream industry operating rates range from 20% - 51%. For PP, the plastic - weaving industry is in the off - season with reduced new orders, and the BOPP film industry has a shorter order cycle [22]. 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: This week, PE inventory increased by 8,000 tons to 1.02 million tons. Two - oil inventory remained unchanged, while coal - chemical, trader, and port inventories increased by 2,000 tons, 5,000 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively [11]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PE operating rate is 76.88%, up 4.43 percentage points from the previous period. The annual production capacity affected by maintenance is 6.97 million tons, and the maintenance loss this week is 108,500 tons, a decrease of 16,300 tons from the previous period [65]. - **Price and Spread**: The report provides detailed price data for PE raw materials, products, and various spreads, including changes in oil - based PE profit, CTO profit, and import profit [24]. - **Import and Export**: This week, the PE import market showed "reduced volume and stable prices." Supply was tightened due to some Middle - East plant failures, and the Chinese market price being low globally reduced foreign suppliers' willingness to quote. Import arrivals may continue to decline from July to August [81]. - **Demand**: PE downstream industry operating rates vary. Agricultural film operating rate increased by 3 percentage points to 20%, while pipe operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 32% [22]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory**: This week, PP inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 514,000 tons. Two - oil inventory increased by 5,000 tons, while coal - chemical, trader, and port inventories decreased by 3,000 tons, 2,000 tons, and 1,000 tons respectively [11]. - **Production and Operation**: The current PP operating rate is 77.41%, down 1.85 percentage points from the previous week but up 3.51 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rates of oil - based, coal - based, and PDH - based PP are 73.26%, 92.36%, and 76.18% respectively [133]. - **Price and Spread**: The report presents comprehensive PP price data, including raw material prices, product prices, and various spreads such as non - standard spreads and basis spreads [100]. - **Import and Export**: PP import offers are scarce, with few transactions due to the large gap between offers and buyers' expectations. PP export arbitrage opportunities are limited, mainly due to weak overseas markets and new domestic capacity leading to a supply - abundant situation [145][147]. - **Demand**: PP downstream industries, such as plastic - weaving, are in the off - season with reduced new orders. The BOPP film industry has a shorter order cycle, and some small and medium - sized injection - molding enterprises are operating at low rates [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing importance of futures pricing in China's petrochemical industry, particularly in the plastic sector, as companies seek to enhance their global competitiveness amid complex international trade conditions [1][2][3]. Group 2 - In 2024, China's petrochemical industry is projected to generate revenue of 16 trillion yuan, with the plastic sector contributing approximately 2.3 trillion yuan, showcasing strong export performance [2]. - The reliance on spot pricing for plastic products has revealed shortcomings, as many companies currently base their pricing on spot price indices or negotiate on a case-by-case basis, leading to potential issues with data transparency and timeliness [2][3]. - The adoption of futures pricing is seen as a way for Chinese companies to gain greater influence in international trade, with futures prices being perceived as more fair and transparent compared to traditional pricing methods [3][4]. Group 3 - The Dalian Commodity Exchange has implemented over 20 optimization measures since 2021 to promote futures pricing in the chemical sector, resulting in over 90% of spot trades for certain chemicals using futures contracts as pricing references [4][5]. - The introduction of new futures products, such as pure benzene futures and options, is expected to enhance risk management tools for the chemical industry and support high-quality development [5][6]. Group 4 - Companies are increasingly adopting basis trading models, which allow them to leverage futures prices for better pricing outcomes, as demonstrated by successful case studies where companies achieved significant profit margins over traditional pricing methods [5][6]. - The growing acceptance of China's futures market by foreign clients indicates a promising future for futures pricing in enhancing the smoothness of PVC export trade [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese PE market experienced a decline in supply from June to July, followed by an increase in August due to reduced maintenance and new capacity releases, with seasonal demand expected to support inventory levels [1][6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - In June, the total PE supply in China (domestic + imports + recycled) was estimated at 3.8 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.46% [2]. - Domestic production saw a continued decline, with a month-on-month drop of 2.22%, influenced by maintenance shutdowns at several key plants [2]. - The supply of LDPE significantly decreased due to maintenance at major producers, while HDPE production increased as some plants shifted production [2]. - Import volumes were expected to decrease by 2.64% in June, with geopolitical factors and domestic demand expectations keeping imports at a low level in July and August [2][6]. Recycled PE Supply - The supply of recycled PE was projected to remain low at 130,000 to 160,000 tons per month during June and July due to low price differentials and seasonal demand [2]. - An increase in recycled PE supply is anticipated in August as seasonal demand begins to rise [2]. Production and Export Data - In May, China's plastic products production was 6.425 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%, while cumulative production from January to May was 31.65 million tons, reflecting a growth of 5.4% [6]. - Exports of PE shopping bags in May reached 113,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.12%, with cumulative exports from January to May totaling 542,500 tons, up 6.02% year-on-year [6]. Market Outlook - The second half of the year will require careful management of production and supply dynamics to navigate potential risks, particularly as oil-based PE production profitability has turned negative for some varieties [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "oscillating operation" for the plastics industry [1] Core Viewpoint - The plastics market is expected to oscillate at a low level in the near future due to factors such as increased supply from restarted and newly - commissioned plants, low downstream demand, high inventory pressure, and falling energy prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Recommend to close long positions. The restart of maintenance devices has increased the plastics operating rate to about 87%, reaching a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE has decreased to 38.69%, with a decline in agricultural film orders and a slight increase in packaging film orders. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The US tariff increase and restricted ethane imports, along with the cooling of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and falling oil prices, contribute to the expected low - level oscillation of plastics [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract oscillated with reducing positions, closing at 7271 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The trading volume decreased by 12,263 lots to 461,763 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PE spot prices fell, with price changes ranging from - 200 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 7260 - 7590 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9580 - 9830 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7700 - 8100 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: The restart of maintenance devices in Dushanzi Petrochemical and Tarim Petrochemical has increased the plastics operating rate to about 87%, reaching a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of June 20, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 38.69%. Agricultural film entered the off - season, with a decline in orders and a slight increase in raw material inventory. Packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical inventory decreased to 76.5 tons on Wednesday, 2.5 tons higher than the same period last year. It is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - **Raw Materials**: Brent crude oil 08 contract fell to $68/barrel. Northeast Asian ethylene prices remained flat at $860/ton, and Southeast Asian ethylene prices remained flat at $850/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for plastics is cautiously bearish, and there is no recommendation for inter - term trading [3] Core View - Downstream demand follow - up is weak, and the market is weakly consolidating. The market has returned to fundamental trading. The downstream demand is in the off - season. The agricultural film operating rate is at a low level, the packaging film operating rate fluctuates slightly, and the operating rates of industries such as plastic weaving and BOPP have slightly increased. The traditional consumption off - season is coming, and terminal factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement and general inventory - building enthusiasm, mainly for rigid demand procurement. The number of PE maintenance devices has increased, and the PE supply side has eased. The previously shut - down PP devices have gradually restarted, and the upstream production inventory of polyolefins has decreased. It is expected that the future supply will increase. Due to the easing of Sino - US tariffs, the production profit of PDH - made PP has recovered. Attention should be paid to the restart of shut - down devices [2] Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Analyzed the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts and the basis between LL East China and the main contract, as well as PP East China and the main contract [1][8][9][12] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The PE operating rate is 78.0% (- 1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 76.8% (+ 0.3%). The PE oil - based production profit is 533.8 yuan/ton (- 100.1), the PP oil - based production profit is 93.8 yuan/ton (- 100.1), and the PDH - made PP production profit is - 290.9 yuan/ton (+ 7.5) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Analyzed the price differences between HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire in East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire in East China [28][35][36] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The LL import profit is - 91.0 yuan/ton (- 10.0), the PP import profit is - 574.5 yuan/ton (+ 3.2), and the PP export profit is 17.7 US dollars/ton (- 0.3) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 14.1% (- 2.6%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 49.2% (+ 0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 45.7% (+ 0.4%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.2% (+ 0.2%) [1] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Analyzed the inventories of PE oil - based enterprises, PE coal - chemical enterprises, PE traders, PE ports, PP oil - based enterprises, PP coal - chemical enterprises, PP traders, and PP ports [72][76][86][87]