【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 期货方面： 塑料2601合约减仓震荡上行，最低价6781元/吨，最高价6838元/吨，最终收盘于6833元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，涨幅0.22%。持仓量减少19678手至528666手。 现货方面： PE现货市场多数下跌，涨跌幅在-50至+0元/吨之间，LLDPE报6790-7220元/吨，LDPE报8750- 9280元/吨，HDPE报6950-7990元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 11月19日，宁夏宝丰全密度等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至89%左右，目前开工率处于 中性水平。截至11月14日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.36个百分点至44.49%，农膜仍处于旺季，农 膜订单稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续稳定，但包装膜订单继续小幅减少，整体 PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水 平。成本端，美国政府停摆结束，欧美成品油裂解价差持续走强，原油价格跌后反弹，但欧佩克将 2025 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-18 PP供应小幅收窄，需求跟进仍偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6843元/吨（-10），PP主力合约收盘价为6467元/吨（-7），LL华北现货为6850 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6850元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6480元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为7元/吨（+10），LL华 东基差为7元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为13元/吨（+7）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.1%（+0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+1.8%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为175.9元/吨（-104.8），PP油制生产利润为-434.1元/吨（-104.8），PDH制PP生产 利润为-213.3元/吨（-9.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-9.0元/吨（+0.3），PP进口利润为-208.2元/吨（+0.3），PP出口利润为-5.8美元/吨（+0.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为50.0%（+0.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.4%（-0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - It is expected that plastics will mainly experience weak fluctuations in the near future [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 13th, new maintenance devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical's LLDPE were added, causing the plastics operating rate to drop to around 88.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% compared to the previous period. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with orders continuing to increase and reaching a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film is stable, but the orders for packaging film continue to decrease slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemicals are normalizing inventory, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. In terms of cost, OPEC adjusted the global oil supply in the third quarter of 2025 from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of oversupply in the crude oil market has become more widely recognized, leading to a decline in crude oil prices. In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of LDPE started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a production capacity of 800,000 tons per year was recently put into production. The plastics operating rate has slightly decreased. The agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable. After the National Day, the stocking demand decreased periodically, the downstream operating rate began to decline, and the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises was insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally reduce prices to actively sell goods. There is still no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastics industry. Of course, anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of overcapacity in the petrochemical industry are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,756 yuan per ton, the highest price was 6,820 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 6,818 yuan per ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.50%. The position volume decreased by 5,317 lots to 581,602 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price fluctuations ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan per ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,740 - 7,270 yuan per ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,430 yuan per ton, and HDPE at 6,900 - 8,090 yuan per ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 13th, new maintenance devices such as Zhongsha Petrochemical's LLDPE were added, causing the plastics operating rate to drop to around 88.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. In terms of demand, as of the week of November 7th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% compared to the previous period. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with orders continuing to increase and reaching a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film is stable, but the orders for packaging film continue to decrease slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 665,000 tons compared to the previous day, which is 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normalizing inventory, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $63 per barrel, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton compared to the previous period, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton compared to the previous period [4]

聚烯烃周报： 产业链累库，弱势震荡 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 时 间 2025/11/09 证监许可[2025]75号 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 PE：供需偏弱，盘面弱势寻底 【本周回顾】 本周塑料高开低走，周线2连阴。周一高开16点在6915，随后快速冲至周内高点6939后单边下跌， 至周四早盘跌至周内低点6745后低位反弹，最终收在6802（较上周收盘跌97点或1.4%）。全周在 6745至6939间运行，振幅194点。 【下周展望】 供给承压，盘面或延续弱势寻底。装置陆续重启，国内开工季节性回升，美国资源集中报盘，内外 供给均存增加预期。棚膜季节性旺季，但PE下游综合开工率环比走弱，需求端补库动力不足。企业 库存升至同期高位，供强需弱下后市面临较高的去库压力。综合来看，高投产周期叠加供需季节性 转弱，基本面无上行驱动，前期空头继续持有。考虑到绝对价格偏低，短期单边不追空。 策略： 1）单边：基本面偏弱，空单持有。L2601关注区间【6700-6900】。 风险提示：1）上行风险：原油大幅上涨，宏观利好政策超预期；2）下行风险：原 ...

【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-10 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE :现货价格持稳，盘面震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周国内聚丙烯产量79.65万吨，相较上周的78.92万吨增加0.73万吨，涨幅0.92%；相较去年同期的66.9万吨增加12.75万吨，涨幅19.06%。（2）聚丙 | | | | 烯平均产能利用率77.78%，环比上升0.72%；中石化产能利用率75.77%，环比下降0.19%。 | | | | （1）平均开工上涨0.52个百分点至53.14%。前期部分企业因原料波动或检修导致开工滞后，电商双十一备货拉动终端需求，BOPP、透明包装、物流包装 | | 需求 | 偏多 | 等应用领域订单小增，相关行业开工负荷稳 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market is facing increasing supply - side pressure and a general decline in downstream开工率. PE and PP spot prices are weakening, with supply increasing and demand remaining sluggish, and inventory pressure is still relatively large [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to hold short positions in the L main 01 contract and the PP main 01 contract, and to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Spot market**: Domestic PE market continued to be weak this week, with linear mainstream prices falling to 6780 - 7450 yuan/ton, high - pressure prices at 8750 - 9600 yuan/ton, and most low - pressure varieties falling. PP was also weak, with the average weekly price of East China拉丝 at about 6540 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of about 60 yuan, a decline of 0.9%. The foreign market also followed the downward trend [4]. - **Supply**: PE maintenance capacity was 6.318 million tons, with a loss of 100,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,100 tons. Next week, the planned maintenance loss will further drop to 80,800 tons, and new production capacity will continue to be released. PP开工负荷率 was 78.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.2 percentage points. The parking loss this week was 158,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons [4]. - **Demand**: PE downstream开工普遍 declined, with the开工 rates of agricultural film, packaging, monofilament, and pipes at 50%, 53%, 48%, and 34% respectively. PP downstream开工 showed a differentiated trend, with the开工 rates of plastic weaving and BOPP film slightly increasing, while those of injection molding and modification remained basically the same as last week [4][16]. - **Inventory**: PE petrochemical synthetic resin inventory was 690,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. PP two - oil synthetic resin inventory was 690,000 tons, a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.7%, but a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The de - stocking rhythm of the middle and upper reaches was slow, and some production enterprises had finished product overstocking [5]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - side trading**: Hold short positions in the L main 01 contract, and it is advisable to lower the stop - loss to the recent low of 6850 points; hold short positions in the PP main 01 contract, and it is advisable to lower the stop - loss to the previous low of 6530 points [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Take a wait - and - see approach [6]. - **Options**: Take a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Not provided in the given content 3.3 PE Weekly Data Tracking - **Price**: The report presents data on PE futures and spot prices, non - standard price differences, cost - profit curves, US dollar prices, import profits, and downstream profits [20][23][26]. - **Inventory**: It includes data on total PE inventory, oil - based PE inventory, coal - based PE inventory, trader PE inventory, port PE inventory, and PE warehouse receipts [51]. - **New device commissioning**: Multiple new PE devices are scheduled to be commissioned in 2025, with a total planned commissioning capacity of 6.13 million tons [59]. - **Production and sales**: Data on PE monthly and weekly production,开工率, imports, and exports are provided [62][65][68][71]. - **Downstream situation**: Information on PE downstream开工率, orders, and raw material inventory is presented [74][79]. 3.4 PP Weekly Data Tracking - **Price**: The report provides data on PP futures and spot prices, non - standard price differences, cost - profit curves, import and export prices, and profits [84][87][93]. - **Inventory**: It includes data on total PP inventory, two - oil PP inventory, coal - chemical enterprise PP inventory, trader PP inventory, port PP inventory, and PP warehouse receipts [106]. - **New capacity situation**: Multiple new PP devices are scheduled to be commissioned in 2025, with a total planned commissioning capacity of 5.66 million tons [108]. - **Production and sales**: Data on PP monthly and weekly production,开工率, and imports and exports are provided [111][114][122]. - **Downstream situation**: Information on PP downstream product开工率, orders, and raw material inventory is presented [125][128].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - PE continues its weak pattern due to high supply, limited demand support from downstream sectors like agricultural film, and a lack of significant macro - level boosts. The cost support from oil - based production is weakening, and inventory clearance under high supply remains challenging [2]. - PP remains in a weak pattern in the short term, with its upward movement suppressed by supply - demand factors and weak cost support. However, as PDH profits are currently low, attention should be paid to upstream device production cut dynamics and macro trends [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents figures related to the plastic main contract, LL East China basis, polypropylene main contract, and PP East China basis [8][9] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE production profit from crude oil and PE capacity utilization are presented. The PE operating rate is 82.6% (+1.7%), and the PE oil - based production profit is 288.7 yuan/ton (+41.3) [17][1][20] - PP production profit from crude oil, PDH - based PP production profit, polypropylene capacity utilization, and PP weekly output are shown. The PP operating rate is 77.8% (+0.7%), the PP oil - based production profit is - 351.3 yuan/ton (+41.3), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 121.6 yuan/ton (-46.7) [20][1][21] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures related to HD injection - LL East China, HD hollow - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, and LD East China - LL are provided [30][33] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit, LL export profit, and various price differences related to LL import and export are presented. The LL import profit is - 12.7 yuan/ton (+57.1) [45][1][53] - PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), and various price differences related to PP import and export are shown. The PP import profit is - 284.1 yuan/ton (+34.1), and the PP export profit is - 7.0 dollars/ton (+1.1) [60][1][52] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, packaging film operating rate, and PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate, BOPP film operating rate, and injection molding operating rate are presented. The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 50.0% (+0.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 50.8% (-0.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 44.5% (+0.3%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 62.5% (+0.9%) [66][1][65] - PP downstream plastic weaving production profit and BOPP production profit are also shown [72] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures related to PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, and PE port inventory are provided [77][80] - PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory are presented [86][83] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously short LLDPE and PP at high prices [4] - Inter - period: Conduct reverse arbitrage on L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 at high prices [4] - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The plastic industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future. The开工率 of plastics is at a neutral level, while the downstream开工率 of PE is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost of crude oil is fluctuating within a narrow range, and there is an increase in supply. The peak season for agricultural film is not as strong as expected, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market, and there is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 6, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic开工率 remained at around 89.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream开工率 of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. Agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream开工率 of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical inventories at the beginning of the month increased significantly and are now at a neutral level in recent years. The market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was in line with market expectations. OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, causing crude oil prices to fluctuate within a narrow range. There is new production capacity coming online, and the plastic开工率 has increased. The peak season for agricultural film is not as good as expected, and downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry yet [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,745 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,819 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,805 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.38%. The position increased by 25,025 lots to 578,172 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,740 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,920 - 9,730 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,030 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 6, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic开工率 remained at around 89.5%, which is at a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending October 31, the downstream开工率 of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. Agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream开工率 of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventories at the beginning of the month increased significantly and are now at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that plastics will continue to oscillate weakly in the near term. Currently, the plastics industry has not seen the implementation of actual anti - involution policies, and the anti - involution and elimination of old devices, which aim to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity, are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season and demand is expected to increase, the current peak season is under - performing, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders have slightly decreased, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is fluctuating slightly. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has increased [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract increased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,852 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,912 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,879 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position volume increased by 554 lots to 533,139 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,840 - 7,370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,000 - 9,780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,070 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending October 31st, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 735,000 tons, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract oscillated around $65 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton on a month - on - month basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton on a month - on - month basis [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for LLDPE and PP are both "oscillating" [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - For LLDPE, the short - term market has no obvious driving force, and it is expected to oscillate. Influenced by supply, demand, inventory, cost and other factors, the supply side has some fluctuations in production and capacity utilization, the demand side has mixed performance in different downstream industries, the inventory shows a downward trend, the cost of some production methods has changed, and the macro - policy has a negative impact on the market [2]. - For PP, the short - term market is also expected to oscillate. The supply side's capacity utilization has decreased, the demand side has a positive outlook in general with different downstream industries performing differently, the inventory at various levels has decreased, the profit of some production methods has changed, and the macro - policy has a negative impact [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LLDPE Analysis Supply - This week, China's LLDPE production was 30.86 tons, a 3.23% decrease from last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers was 81.46%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous period. Some devices were under maintenance, and some newly - stopped devices restarted during the week [2]. Demand - The average operating rate of Chinese LLDPE/LDPE downstream products increased by 1.64% compared with the previous period. The overall operating rate of agricultural films increased by 2.75%, and the operating rate of PE packaging films increased by 0.52%. In 2025, the cumulative import volume was 898.16 million tons, a 0.84% year - on - year decrease. In August, China's polyethylene import volume was 95.02 million tons, a 22.14% year - on - year and 14.17% month - on - month decrease [2]. Inventory - As of this week, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene producers was 51.46 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, a 2.81% month - on - month decrease. The social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 54.54 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, a 0.05% month - on - month decrease, and 9.19% lower year - on - year. The inventory of imported polyethylene in warehouses decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and was 20.33% lower year - on - year [2]. Cost and Profit - The costs of oil - based, coal - based, and ethane - based production increased by 41, 242, and 81 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous period. The ethylene - based cost remained unchanged, and the methanol - based cost decreased by 163 yuan/ton. International oil prices rose due to factors such as US sanctions on Russia and a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories [2]. Valuation - The spot price is neutral, the absolute price of the futures market is neutral, and the near - month contract is at a deep discount [2]. Macro Policy - The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to the fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating weakly [2]. 3.2 PP Analysis Supply - The average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 75.94%, a 2.28% month - on - month decrease. The capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 78.76%, a 2.25% month - on - month decrease [3]. Demand - The average operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37%. With the cooling weather, the demand for cold - chain packaging in some regions increased. The demand for medical products such as masks and diapers rose, driving up the operating rate of the PP non - woven fabric industry. The operating rates of the CPP and BOPP industries increased steadily. Although the PP pipe and plastic - weaving industries were affected by rainy weather, with the approaching of e - commerce festivals, the overall demand for polypropylene products is expected to continue to improve [3]. Inventory - As of this week, the inventory of Chinese polypropylene producers was 63.85 million tons, a 4.02 - million - ton decrease from the previous period, a 5.92% month - on - month decrease. The port sample inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 0.11 million tons from the previous period, a 1.62% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of domestic polypropylene traders decreased by 1.86 million tons from the previous period, a 7.80% month - on - month decrease [3]. Cost and Profit - This week, the profits of oil - based and externally - purchased propylene - based PP production were repaired, while the profits of coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based PP production declined. The international energy agency warned of long - term supply surplus risks, and trade disputes initiated by the US suppressed the demand outlook, putting pressure on the oil market. The profit of oil - based PP production rose to - 278.53 yuan/ton [3]. Valuation - The spot price is neutral, the absolute price of the futures market is neutral, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. Macro Policy - The macro - sentiment has subsided, trading has returned to the fundamentals, and the futures market is oscillating weakly [3] 3.3 Main Weekly Data Changes - PP futures price was 6,662 yuan/ton, a 1.69% increase from last week; PE futures price was 6,969 yuan/ton, a 1.38% increase from last week. PP spot price was 6,640 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase from last week; LLDPE spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, a 0.99% increase from last week [5]. - The operating rate of PP was 38.6%, a 2.60% decrease from last week; the operating rate of PE was 81.46%, a 0.37% decrease from last week [5]. - The factory inventory of PP was 42,970 tons, a 1.58% increase from last week; the social inventory of PE was 64.52 million tons, a 0.54% increase from last week [5].