国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2026-03-02 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【塑料数据周报（PP&PE ）】 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 L L DPE:地缘冲突加剧 ，盘面 价格 有望上涨 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）我国聚乙烯产量总计在72.94万吨，较上周减少0.54%。（2）中国聚乙烯生产企业产能利用率87.95%，较上周期减少了0.48个百分点(上周数据位 | | | | 88.43%)。本周期装置情况来看，周内齐鲁石化、独山子石化存在新增检修计划，暂无存量检修装置重启，因此产能利用率环比上周减少。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | （1）中国LLDPE/LDPE下游制品平均开工率较前期-0.9%。其中农膜整体开工率较前期-1.0%；PE包装膜开工率较前期-0.8%。（2）中国聚乙烯下游制品 平均开工率较前期-1.6 ...

聚烯烃月报 等待需求检验，震荡运行 能源化工团队 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 时 间 2026/2/27 证监许可[2025]75号 PE：高供应与成本支撑博弈，震荡运行 本月回顾 2月塑料震荡偏弱，跌破前低。月初跳空高开15点在7029，随后快速反弹至月内高点7086，转为大幅走弱 ，结束12月23日以来的反弹走势，盘面开始逐步回吐寒潮及地缘溢价。2/9-2/12，节前一周市场波动逐步 降低，盘面在6700至6850横盘震荡；节后累库幅度基本符合预期，但上游检修力度不足，跟随油价冲高后 重回跌势，月底破位下跌，创 近 一个月新低6553，较1月末高点跌幅达8%。全月在6553至7086间运行，振 幅533点。 下月展望 高供应与成本支撑博弈，震荡运行。2月检修力度不足，预计日均产量同比增加13.2%至10.4万吨。根据统 计，3月计划新增检修装置仅为100万吨，预计供给端压力仍存。节后两油库存升至同期中性位置，农膜市 场复工复产缓慢，若3月地膜复苏不及预期，预计产业链仍面临一定的去库压力。总体来看，塑料自身供 需格局依旧偏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical situation between the US and Iran continues to drive up international oil prices, significantly boosting the cost support of polyolefins and the futures prices. For PE, the supply pressure remains due to high - level operation and limited planned maintenance, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. The cost support is strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal rhythm after the Spring Festival. For PP, the cost support is also rising, the supply pressure is acceptable in the short term, the demand is in the off - season, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the inventory removal rhythm after the downstream resumes work [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6777 yuan/ton (- 43), the PP main contract is 6720 yuan/ton (- 26), LL North China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+30), LL East China spot is 6780 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis is - 97 yuan/ton (+73), the LL East China basis is 3 yuan/ton (+43), and the PP East China basis is - 40 yuan/ton (+26) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 88.4% (+1.1%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (- 0.1%) [1] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is - 229.6 yuan/ton (- 143.8), the PP oil - based production profit is - 569.6 yuan/ton (- 143.8), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 487.9 yuan/ton (- 36.6) [1] - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is - 24.7 yuan/ton (+79.9), the PP import profit is - 332.5 yuan/ton (- 83.2), and the PP export profit is - 54.3 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (- 5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (+0.0%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 24.1% (- 3.8%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 42.8% (- 17.5%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply pressure remains due to many short - term restarting devices, high - level operation, limited planned maintenance in the later first quarter, and increased standard product production. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, waiting for the peak season of PE mulching films to resume work and replenish stocks. The upstream inventory accumulates as expected after the festival, the downstream resumes work slowly, and the spot trading is light. The plastic's basic situation of strong supply and weak demand continues, and the cost support is strong in the short term [3] - **PP**: Geopolitical disturbances push up oil prices and the cost support. The PDH profit is slightly repaired but still in a deep loss. The overall PP operating rate rises limitedly, and the supply pressure is acceptable in the short term. The demand is in the off - season, and the downstream operating rates continue to decline. The cost increase boosts the price in the short term [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously go long and hedge for LLDPE and PP at low prices [5] - **Inter - period**: Cautiously shrink the L05 - 09 spread at high prices [5] - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread at high prices [5]

证券研究报告 石化行业周报：地缘反复原油获得溢价，聚酯 链关注节后pxn价差是否走强 行业投资评级：强大于市|维持 中邮证券研究所石化团队 分析师:张津圣 1 1 发布时间：2026-02-23 投资要点 请参阅附注免责声明 2 ◼ 焦点：假期美伊局势不明朗，原油获得地缘溢价。PX、PTA供需今年边际好转预期。依据wind和隆众 资讯，PX（中国主港）-石脑油（日本）的价差经过调整后开始稳定在300美元/吨附近，价差节后可能 再度走强。 ◼ 回顾：春节前最后一周，申万一级行业指数表现中，石油石化指数表现一般，较上周上涨-0.82%。而中 信三级行业指数表现来看，工程服务在石油石化中表现最佳，涨幅1.51%。 ◼ 原油：原油涨。美原油库存下降，汽油库存下降 ◼ 聚酯：涤纶长丝价格涨。江浙织机涤纶长丝库存天数不同品种涨跌不一，织机开工率跌 ◼ 烯烃：样本PE现货价格跌，聚烯烃石化库存上涨 ◼ 标的： ➢ 上游：地缘若未来再次给出原油溢价，则利好上游标的。 ➢ 炼化：若需求好转，优供给、淘汰落后产能有所进展，则利好中游炼化。 ➢ 长丝：关注PTA反内卷进展和PX利润修复，若顺利则利好涤纶长丝。 ◼ 风险提示：油价剧 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Plastic supply and demand pattern improves limitedly, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no positions for the holiday. Since there is new plastic production capacity put into operation recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, it is advisable to hold a light - position short L - PP spread [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally. Petrochemical de - stocking in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about military conflicts between the US and Iran. New plastic production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in position and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6732 yuan/ton, the highest was 6834 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6734 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.72%. The position decreased by 2602 lots to 501315 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Some prices in the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally [4]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year. Petrochemical de - stocking was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $695 per ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $675 per ton week - on - week [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastics market is oscillating. The uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiations and the resurgence of geopolitical risk premiums may support oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. The supply of PE is under pressure with high - level开工率 and more imported resources, while the demand is in the off - season. PP's supply pressure is currently acceptable, but the demand is expected to decline seasonally [3][4]. - The current supply - demand structure of PP is still weak, and the cost side fluctuates sharply. For both PE and PP, it is necessary to pay attention to the geopolitical situation and the inventory accumulation amplitude after the Spring Festival [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6,775 yuan/ton (+54), PP main contract at 6,688 yuan/ton (+58). LL North China spot was 6,550 yuan/ton (-70), LL East China spot 6,700 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot 6,680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 225 yuan/ton (-124), LL East China basis - 75 yuan/ton (-54), PP East China basis - 8 yuan/ton (-58) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 85.9% (+0.6%), PP开工率 73.9% (-0.9%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was - 192.2 yuan/ton (-110.8), PP oil - based production profit - 452.2 yuan/ton (-110.8), PDH - based PP production profit - 462.7 yuan/ton (+22.5) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 118.1 yuan/ton (-34.0), PP import profit - 304.7 yuan/ton (+58.1), PP export profit - 62.5 US dollars/ton (-2.1) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 30.2% (-4.4%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 38.8% (-3.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 36.7% (-5.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 64.6% (+0.4%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The plastics market oscillates due to weakened macro - sentiment and weak fundamentals. The cost support is strengthened by rising oil prices. The supply side has pressure with more restarted devices and more imported resources. The demand side is in the off - season with declining downstream开工率. The inventory of the upper and middle reaches is under pressure [3]. - **PP**: There is still short - term cost support. The supply pressure is currently acceptable with some device overhauls. The demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall supply - demand structure is weak [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see, as the short - term market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [5]. - **Inter - period**: No strategy provided [5]. - **Cross - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP price spread when it is high [5].

聚聚聚聚聚聚聚聚 2025/1/28 作者：汤剑林 从业资格证号：F03117796 交易咨询证号：Z0019347 研究联系方式：tangjianlin@zjtfqh.com 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 短期观点总结 | 聚烯烃 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | PP/PE近期持续反弹，一方面由于12月价格大幅回落后价格修复性反弹，另一方面由于原料价格上涨支撑带 | | | | 动PP/PE价格，且化工市场情绪整体修复，整体处于上行节奏，PP/PE作为估值偏低品种存在补涨的需求，但 | | 核心观点 | 中性 | 相对其他化工品涨幅较小，当前供需逻辑偏弱。预期来看，春节前下游需求淡季，且月底开始部分装置重启， | | | | 供应存在增量，春节期间累库较为明确，供需预期仍偏弱，但短期逻辑主要还是情绪主导，叠加地缘不确定 | | | | 性仍在，预计PP/PE偏强震荡，关注化工市场情绪变化。 | | 供应 | PE偏多 | 短期检修偏多，但后期计划逐渐重启，供应端存在增量。 | | | PP偏多 | | | 需求 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-29 成本端支撑偏强，市场延续上行 市场要闻与重要数据 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为72.5元/吨（-161.0），PP油制生产利润为-527.5元/吨（-161.0），PDH制PP生产利 润为-621.0元/吨（+44.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为365.7元/吨（-11.8），PP进口利润为-412.8元/吨（-33.1），PP出口利润为-68.1美元/吨（-1.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为36.3%（-0.6%），PE下游包装膜开工率为45.0%（-3.2%），PP下游塑编开工率 为42.0%（-0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为64.0%（+0.5%）。 市场分析 PE方面，地缘扰动加剧，成本端原油价格震荡上行，叠加近期北美寒潮影响乙烷供应价格高涨，PE成本端支撑持 续，聚烯烃市场情绪仍高涨；基本面情况看，供应端，短期包括中化泉州、茂名石化等重启装置偏多，PE供应端 存回升预期；需求端，PE下游延续淡季特征，下游整体开工延续下滑，下游工厂采购力度有所减弱，其中农膜需 求淡季，包装膜开工亦同期偏低，节前下游订单跟进情况仍显不足。整体看塑料供需格 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: January 29, 2026 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price increase of polyolefins is mainly driven by the geopolitical risk sentiment of crude oil, and its supply - demand structure has not changed substantially. In the short term, attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation. If crude oil strengthens further, it may support the price to remain high. However, as downstream enters the holiday season and procurement weakens, polyolefins have weak self - drive, and there is a risk of price correction after the cost - driven sentiment fades [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Futures market: For plastics, L2605 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed up at 6967 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (1.31%), with a trading volume of 560,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 10,445 lots to 531,205 lots. For PP2605, it closed at 6778 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan (1.30%), with an increase in open interest of 17,500 lots to 543,400 lots [5][6] - Market drivers: The US dollar weakened to a new low, the situation in the Middle East may intensify further, crude oil strengthened, and polyolefins rebounded following the cost fluctuations. In terms of industry fundamentals, the supply of polypropylene increased slightly due to the reduction of maintenance, but some supplies were still structurally tight; the supply of polyethylene tended to be loose under the dual influence of import arrivals and new production capacity expectations. High - priced raw materials generally suppressed downstream procurement. Although there was still rigid demand for stocking before the Spring Festival, the overall operation was cautious, and some small and medium - sized factories had gradually entered the holiday state [6] 2. Industry News - Inventory: On January 28, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 550,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton increase (10.00%) from the previous working day, compared with 450,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - Price: PE market prices mostly rose. LLDPE prices were 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton in North China, 6830 - 7100 yuan/ton in East China, and 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton in South China. The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6320 - 6380 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous working day. PP market prices also increased, with the mainstream拉丝 price at 6490 - 6590 yuan/ton in North China, 6520 - 6680 yuan/ton in East China, and 6470 - 6680 yuan/ton in South China [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][11][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has cooled down. For PE, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is in the off - season, and the cost and capital sentiment are the main drivers of the market. For PP, the cost support is strengthening, but the demand is still weak, and the de - stocking pressure may limit the rebound space [4][5] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for LLDPE, and cautiously buy PP on dips for hedging. The LLDPE - PP spread should be shorted when it is high [6] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L主力合约 closed at 6899 yuan/ton (-36), and the PP主力合约 closed at 6709 yuan/ton (-28). The LL North China spot was 6760 yuan/ton (-40), the LL East China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (-20), and the PP East China spot was 6520 yuan/ton (+0). The LL North China basis was -139 yuan/ton (-4), the LL East China basis was -19 yuan/ton (+16), and the PP East China basis was -189 yuan/ton (+28) [2] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.7% (+3.1%), and PP operating rate was 76.0% (+0.4%). PE oil - based production profit was 233.6 yuan/ton (+129.4), PP oil - based production profit was -386.4 yuan/ton (+129.4), and PDH - based PP production profit was -665.0 yuan/ton (+50.8) [2] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was 377.4 yuan/ton (+109.5), PP import profit was -379.7 yuan/ton (-3.8), and PP export profit was -67.0 US dollars/ton (-10.2) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 36.3% (-0.6%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 45.0% (-3.2), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 42.0% (-0.6), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 64.0% (+0.5) [3] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Not provided in the content