1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The successful convening of the Politburo meeting led to the realization of short - term macro - positive expectations, and the counter - arbitrage market of chemical products reached a phased bottom. Currently, the crude oil price has rebounded strongly from a low level. With the supply pressure on the polyolefin 09 contract not yet falsified, short - term polyolefins may fluctuate strongly following the cost side [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: The Politburo meeting was successfully held, and short - term macro - positive expectations were realized, with the counter - arbitrage market of chemical products reaching a phased bottom [15]. - Valuation: For polyethylene, the weekly increase was (futures > cost > spot); for polypropylene, it was (futures > spot > cost) [15]. - Cost: Last week, WTI crude oil rose 7.28%, Brent crude oil rose 6.90%, coal price rose 1.23%, methanol fell - 2.21%, ethylene rose 0.61%, propylene fell - 0.40%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00%. There was still support on the cost side [15]. - Supply: PE capacity utilization was 79.82%, down - 0.55% month - on - month, - 0.20% year - on - year, and - 6.44% compared with the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization was 76.46%, down - 0.16% month - on - month, up 1.41% year - on - year, and - 13.64% compared with the 5 - year average. In August, the polyethylene capacity release pressure was large [15]. - Import and Export: In June, domestic PE imports were 95.93 tons, down - 10.19% from May and - 4.63% year - on - year. PP imports were 15.36 tons, down - 8.22% from May and - 15.78% year - on - year. PE exports were 9.68 tons, down - 7.95% from May but up 48.84% year - on - year. PP exports were 20.94 tons, down - 24.29% from May but up 39.35% year - on - year. The 40% transit tariff imposed by the US on Vietnam may hinder PP exports [15]. - Demand: PE downstream operating rate was 38.30%, down - 0.31% month - on - month and - 5.78% year - on - year. PP downstream operating rate was 48.45%, down - 0.14% month - on - month and - 0.37% year - on - year. Agricultural film orders may increase seasonally [15]. - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory was 43.28 tons, with a destocking of - 13.94% month - on - month and a stockpiling of 0.84% compared with the same period last year; PE trader inventory was 5.78 tons, with a destocking of - 3.36% month - on - month. PP production enterprise inventory was 56.48 tons, with a destocking of - 2.72% month - on - month and a stockpiling of 18.46% compared with the same period last year; PP trader inventory was 17.33 tons, with a stockpiling of 4.02% month - on - month; PP port inventory was 6.24 tons, with a destocking of - 7.14% month - on - month [15]. - Forecast: For polyethylene (LL2509), the reference oscillation range is (7200 - 7500); for polypropylene (PP2509), it is (7000 - 7300). - Strategy: Continue to hold the LL9 - 1 counter - arbitrage position for profit - taking [15]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - In August, there are many polyethylene production plans, and the LL - PP price difference may shrink [65]. 3.3. Cost Side - Oil - based costs have increased significantly. Last week, WTI crude oil rose 7.28%, Brent crude oil rose 6.90%, coal price rose 1.23%, methanol fell - 2.21%, ethylene rose 0.61%, propylene fell - 0.40%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00% [15]. - The supply of LPG: The gross profit of major refineries has been continuously decreasing, and the increase in the operating rate has slowed down [98]. - The arrival volume of LPG: In July, the shipping volume rebounded, and the supply from the Middle East continued to increase [118]. 3.4. Polyethylene Supply Side - Raw material proportion: Oil - based accounts for 62.00%, light - hydrocarbon - based accounts for 19.00%, coal - based accounts for 15.00%, methanol accounts for 3.00%, and purchased ethylene accounts for 1.00% [151]. - Capacity and production: In 2025, 353 tons of polyethylene capacity have been put into production, and 150 tons are yet to be put into production. Some production plans have been postponed [157]. - Capacity utilization: PE capacity utilization was 79.82%, down - 0.55% month - on - month, - 0.20% year - on - year, and - 6.44% compared with the 5 - year average [15].