交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。近日丙烷价格走强带动聚烯烃价格。供需端，农 膜需求逐步回落，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6770（-0）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-19，升贴水比例-0.3%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.1万吨（-5.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The successful convening of the Politburo meeting led to the realization of short - term macro - positive expectations, and the counter - arbitrage market of chemical products reached a phased bottom. Currently, the crude oil price has rebounded strongly from a low level. With the supply pressure on the polyolefin 09 contract not yet falsified, short - term polyolefins may fluctuate strongly following the cost side [15][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Policy: The Politburo meeting was successfully held, and short - term macro - positive expectations were realized, with the counter - arbitrage market of chemical products reaching a phased bottom [15]. - Valuation: For polyethylene, the weekly increase was (futures > cost > spot); for polypropylene, it was (futures > spot > cost) [15]. - Cost: Last week, WTI crude oil rose 7.28%, Brent crude oil rose 6.90%, coal price rose 1.23%, methanol fell - 2.21%, ethylene rose 0.61%, propylene fell - 0.40%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00%. There was still support on the cost side [15]. - Supply: PE capacity utilization was 79.82%, down - 0.55% month - on - month, - 0.20% year - on - year, and - 6.44% compared with the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization was 76.46%, down - 0.16% month - on - month, up 1.41% year - on - year, and - 13.64% compared with the 5 - year average. In August, the polyethylene capacity release pressure was large [15]. - Import and Export: In June, domestic PE imports were 95.93 tons, down - 10.19% from May and - 4.63% year - on - year. PP imports were 15.36 tons, down - 8.22% from May and - 15.78% year - on - year. PE exports were 9.68 tons, down - 7.95% from May but up 48.84% year - on - year. PP exports were 20.94 tons, down - 24.29% from May but up 39.35% year - on - year. The 40% transit tariff imposed by the US on Vietnam may hinder PP exports [15]. - Demand: PE downstream operating rate was 38.30%, down - 0.31% month - on - month and - 5.78% year - on - year. PP downstream operating rate was 48.45%, down - 0.14% month - on - month and - 0.37% year - on - year. Agricultural film orders may increase seasonally [15]. - Inventory: PE production enterprise inventory was 43.28 tons, with a destocking of - 13.94% month - on - month and a stockpiling of 0.84% compared with the same period last year; PE trader inventory was 5.78 tons, with a destocking of - 3.36% month - on - month. PP production enterprise inventory was 56.48 tons, with a destocking of - 2.72% month - on - month and a stockpiling of 18.46% compared with the same period last year; PP trader inventory was 17.33 tons, with a stockpiling of 4.02% month - on - month; PP port inventory was 6.24 tons, with a destocking of - 7.14% month - on - month [15]. - Forecast: For polyethylene (LL2509), the reference oscillation range is (7200 - 7500); for polypropylene (PP2509), it is (7000 - 7300). - Strategy: Continue to hold the LL9 - 1 counter - arbitrage position for profit - taking [15]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - In August, there are many polyethylene production plans, and the LL - PP price difference may shrink [65]. 3.3. Cost Side - Oil - based costs have increased significantly. Last week, WTI crude oil rose 7.28%, Brent crude oil rose 6.90%, coal price rose 1.23%, methanol fell - 2.21%, ethylene rose 0.61%, propylene fell - 0.40%, and propane remained unchanged at 0.00% [15]. - The supply of LPG: The gross profit of major refineries has been continuously decreasing, and the increase in the operating rate has slowed down [98]. - The arrival volume of LPG: In July, the shipping volume rebounded, and the supply from the Middle East continued to increase [118]. 3.4. Polyethylene Supply Side - Raw material proportion: Oil - based accounts for 62.00%, light - hydrocarbon - based accounts for 19.00%, coal - based accounts for 15.00%, methanol accounts for 3.00%, and purchased ethylene accounts for 1.00% [151]. - Capacity and production: In 2025, 353 tons of polyethylene capacity have been put into production, and 150 tons are yet to be put into production. Some production plans have been postponed [157]. - Capacity utilization: PE capacity utilization was 79.82%, down - 0.55% month - on - month, - 0.20% year - on - year, and - 6.44% compared with the 5 - year average [15].