交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的部 分限制措施，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，OPEC + 11 月12日将原油市场供不应求调整为供过于求，引发油价下跌。供需端，农膜需求有所回落， 其余膜类以刚需为主。当前LL交割品现货价6840（-20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差70，升贴水比例1.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55.4万吨（-2.5），偏空； ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-10-31 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，9月份，官方PMI为49.8，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气度有所 改善，但仍位于收缩区间。原油中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的 10%"芬太尼 关税"，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，美欧对俄油 进行新一轮制裁，油价反弹。供需端，农膜旺季需求延续，开工稳，其余膜类备货结束开工下滑。 当前LL交割品现货价6990（-30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差22，升贴水比例0.3%，中性 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract shows a volatile pattern, with fluctuating crude oil prices, a peak season for agricultural film demand but still weaker than previous years, and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the main - contract is also volatile, with fluctuating crude oil prices, increasing demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export value in August was $321.81 billion, a 4.4% year - on - year increase but a decline from July. The crude oil price has been fluctuating recently. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7160 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 21, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - economic indicators. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increasing demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 123, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.8%, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (- 30,000 tons), which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7160 (+10), the 01 - contract price is 7181 (+22), the basis is - 21 (- 12), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 525,000 tons (- 10,000 tons) [9]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+0), the 01 - contract price is 6903 (+10), the basis is - 123 (- 10), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons (0), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (0) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in the growth rate. The import dependence has also gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The cost side provides support, but there are pressures from new capacity and weak demand [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The situation regarding China-US tariffs has eased, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. It's the off - season for agricultural films, with many factories shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7210 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 93, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.9 million tons (-0.7), showing a neutral situation [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With recent cost support, off - season demand for agricultural films, new capacity pressure, and relatively high industrial inventory, the PE market is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support on the recent cost side [5] - **Negative Factors**: New capacity launch and weak demand [5] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, and tariff policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The China - US tariff situation has eased, but the result is uncertain. Crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 181, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.6%, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 million tons (-2.4), showing a neutral situation [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, with a reduction in long positions, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With recent cost support, weak overall demand, and relatively high industrial inventory, the PP market is expected to fluctuate today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support on the recent cost side [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [7] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, and tariff policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing year by year [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been growing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E [15]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, but the cost side has recent support. The market is expected to be volatile today due to the cost-demand game and tariff policy uncertainties [4][6]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The cost side is supported by the rebound of crude oil and coal. However, it's the off-season for agricultural films with many factories shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7160 (+10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 94, with a premium ratio of 1.3%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 576,000 tons (+36,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with cost support, weak demand in the off - season, high industrial inventory, and new capacity pressure [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support; bearish factors include new capacity release and weak demand. The main logic lies in the cost - demand game and tariff policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The cost side has support from the rebound of crude oil and coal. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7100 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 175, with a premium ratio of 2.5%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 605,000 tons (+52,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, with cost support, weak overall demand, and high industrial inventory [6]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support; bearish factors include weak demand. The main logic lies in the cost - demand game and tariff policies [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 7160 (+10), the 09 contract price is 7066 (+32), the basis is 94 (-22), the warehouse receipt is 5254 (+10), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 576,000 tons, and the social inventory is 583,000 tons [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 7100 (0), the 09 contract price is 6925 (+14), the basis is 175 (-14), the warehouse receipt is 4885 (-149), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 605,000 tons, and the social inventory is 243,000 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has also been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has shown some fluctuations, and the consumption growth rate has been positive overall [15].