交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-25 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 中东美伊局势升级，原油上涨，地缘政治溢价明显，支撑聚烯烃成本。美最高法院裁定特朗普关 税违法，其立刻宣布对全球加征15%进口关税，制品未来出口可能受影响。国内方面，3月两会可 能的刺激政策、特朗普来访前中美的谈判博弈均有可能增加市场对需求预期。供需端，农膜方面， 多数企业尚未复工，包装膜企业低负荷逐渐复工，管材方面受天气制约复工仍受限。当前LL交割 品现货价6640（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-180，升贴水比例-2.6%，偏空； • 3. 库 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: February 2, 2026 - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, while industrial inventories are neutral [4][7] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Geopolitical disturbances in Iran have led to a strong crude oil trend, driving up the polyolefin market. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for agricultural films and packaging films is weak. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6940 (+60), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PE inventory is 348,000 tons (-31,000), indicating a bullish signal [4] Market Analysis - The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [4] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: cost support and crude oil rebound - Bearish factors: weak downstream demand year-on-year - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Geopolitical disturbances in Iran have led to a strong crude oil trend, driving up the polyolefin market. PDH device maintenance is frequent. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current PP delivery spot price is 6750 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [7] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PP inventory is 401,000 tons (-32,000), indicating a bullish signal [7] Market Analysis - The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [7] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: cost support and crude oil rebound - Bearish factors: off-season downstream demand - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [9] Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 6940 (+60), and the 05 contract price is 7014 (-35) - PP: The spot delivery price is 6750 (+0), and the 05 contract price is 6824 (-46) [10] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 9379 (-19), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 348,000 tons - PP: The warehouse receipt is 17236 (0), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 401,000 tons [10] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show weak and volatile trends today. The fundamentals of both are oversupplied, with downstream demand generally weak, although propane price increases are providing some support to the market [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, improving coal - based production profits. Agricultural film demand is weak, while packaging film demand is mainly driven by rigid needs, with some improvement in certain regions. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6,580 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -19, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is showing a weak downward trend. With an oversupply in fundamentals, a strong propane price driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and a decline in downstream demand, it is expected that the PE market will show a weak and volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, improving coal - based production profits. Plastic weaving has entered the off - season with falling demand, while pipe demand is acceptable. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6,300 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 138, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.2%, indicating a bullish trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), considered neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, but still indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is showing a weak downward trend. With an oversupply in fundamentals, a strong propane price driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and average downstream demand, it is expected that the PP market will show a weak and volatile trend today [6]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 6,580 (-60), the 05 - contract price is 6,599 (-11), the basis is -19 (-49), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 508,000 tons (+11,000), and the PE social inventory is 457,000 tons (-30,000) [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 6,300 (-50), the 01 - contract price is 6,162 (-30), the basis is 138 (-20), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 537,000 tons (-28,000), and the PP social inventory is 315,000 tons (-10,000) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also shown certain trends. For example, the production capacity in 2024 was 3,584.5, with a 12.4% growth rate [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with a planned 11.0% increase in 2025E. The production, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption have also changed accordingly. For example, the production capacity in 2024 was 4,418.5, with a 13.5% growth rate [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The supply exceeds demand in the fundamentals, but the recent strengthening of propane prices has driven the market. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream demand has weakened or is average [4][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity declined. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November at the November 30 meeting, with an increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December and a suspension of the production increase plan from January to March 2026. The recent strengthening of propane prices has driven the price of polyolefins. The demand for agricultural films is gradually declining, and the demand for packaging films is mainly based on rigid needs, with some areas improving. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,770 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -19, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 501,000 tons (-53,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with oversupply in the fundamentals, the strengthening of propane prices driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and a decline in downstream demand [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand compared to the same period last year and more new capacity put into operation in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity declined. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November at the November 30 meeting, with an increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December and a suspension of the production increase plan from January to March 2026. The recent strengthening of propane prices has led the PDH profit to reach a low in recent years, driving the price of polyolefins up. The seasonal demand for plastic weaving is declining, and the overall situation is average, while the demand for pipes is acceptable. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,380 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -29, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 546,000 tons (-48,000 tons), which is neutral [6] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is still bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, with oversupply in the fundamentals, the strengthening of propane prices driving the market, neutral industrial inventory, and average downstream demand [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the rise of PDH [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand compared to the same period last year and more new capacity put into operation in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption of polyethylene have shown certain trends of change. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, apparent consumption, and actual consumption of polypropylene have also shown corresponding trends of change. The production capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [15]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 24, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, weakening downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. - The PP market is also expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, general downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. After the China-US summit, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. Agricultural film demand has declined, while other film types are mainly driven by rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6840 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 70, with a premium ratio of 1.0%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 million tons (-2.5), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, weakening downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [4]. LLDPE Factors - **Bullish Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the China-US summit has achieved a phased easing [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. After the China-US summit, the US lifted some restrictions on Chinese goods, and OPEC+ adjusted the crude oil market from undersupply to oversupply in November, leading to a drop in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is average, while the demand for pipes has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6380 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 23, with a premium ratio of 0.4%, indicating a neutral signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.4 million tons (-2.6), indicating a neutral signal [6]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, with a bearish fundamental outlook due to oversupply, general downstream demand, and moderately high industrial inventory [6]. PP Factors - **Bullish Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil may lead to a rebound in oil prices, and the China-US summit has achieved a phased easing [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: Demand is weaker year-on-year, and there are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7]. - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro policies [7]. Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: The table shows the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other data of polyethylene from 2018 to 2025E. The capacity and production have been increasing year by year, while the import dependence has been decreasing [13]. - **Polypropylene**: The table shows the capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other data of polypropylene from 2018 to 2025E. The capacity and production have also been increasing year by year, while the import dependence has been decreasing [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 31, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - LLDPE is expected to trade in a range today, with the plastic main contract fluctuating, the Sino-US negotiation reaching a preliminary consensus, Russian oil facing new sanctions leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, the peak season demand for agricultural films continuing, and the industrial inventory at a neutral level [4] - PP is also expected to trade in a range today, with the main contract fluctuating, the Sino-US negotiation reaching a preliminary consensus, Russian oil facing new sanctions leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and downstream peak season demand providing support [6] Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. On October 30, Sino-US leaders met, the US canceled a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended a 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusted countermeasures accordingly. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply and demand side, the peak season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed stocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6990 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 22, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 466,000 tons (-114,000), neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has decreased, bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade in a range today [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in September was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium- to long-term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. On October 30, Sino-US leaders met, the US canceled a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended a 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusted countermeasures accordingly. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices. On the supply and demand side, the demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -21, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 595,000 tons (-84,000), neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to trade in a range today [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: Detailed data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects from 2018 to 2025E are provided, showing trends in capacity growth, production, and consumption [13] - **Polypropylene**: Similar to polyethylene, detailed data on capacity, production, net imports, apparent consumption, and other aspects from 2018 to 2025E are provided, showing trends in capacity growth, production, and consumption [15] Market Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: Spot and futures prices and their changes for LLDPE and PP are provided, including prices in different regions, main contracts, and import prices [8] - **Inventory Data**: Inventory data for LLDPE and PP, including warehouse receipts and comprehensive factory and social inventories, are provided [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the plastic main - contract shows a volatile pattern, with fluctuating crude oil prices, a peak season for agricultural film demand but still weaker than previous years, and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the main - contract is also volatile, with fluctuating crude oil prices, increasing demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][6]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points. China's export value in August was $321.81 billion, a 4.4% year - on - year increase but a decline from July. The crude oil price has been fluctuating recently. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the overall demand is still weaker than previous years. The current spot price of the LL delivery product is 7160 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 21, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - economic indicators. The downstream is gradually entering the peak season, with increasing demand in pipes and plastic weaving. The current spot price of the PP delivery product is 6780 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 123, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.8%, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 520,000 tons (- 30,000 tons), which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a decrease in short positions, showing a bearish signal [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include geopolitical unrest and cost support; negative factors include weaker - than - expected demand and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 7160 (+10), the 01 - contract price is 7181 (+22), the basis is - 21 (- 12), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 429,000 tons (- 80,000 tons), and the social PE inventory is 525,000 tons (- 10,000 tons) [9]. - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6780 (+0), the 01 - contract price is 6903 (+10), the basis is - 123 (- 10), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 520,000 tons (0), and the social PP inventory is 286,000 tons (0) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with changes in the growth rate. The import dependence has also gradually decreased. The 2025E production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The cost side provides support, but there are pressures from new capacity and weak demand [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The situation regarding China-US tariffs has eased, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. It's the off - season for agricultural films, with many factories shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7210 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 93, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.9 million tons (-0.7), showing a neutral situation [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With recent cost support, off - season demand for agricultural films, new capacity pressure, and relatively high industrial inventory, the PE market is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support on the recent cost side [5] - **Negative Factors**: New capacity launch and weak demand [5] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, and tariff policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The China - US tariff situation has eased, but the result is uncertain. Crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 181, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.6%, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 million tons (-2.4), showing a neutral situation [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, with a reduction in long positions, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With recent cost support, weak overall demand, and relatively high industrial inventory, the PP market is expected to fluctuate today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support on the recent cost side [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [7] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, and tariff policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing year by year [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been growing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E [15]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, but the cost side has recent support. The market is expected to be volatile today due to the cost-demand game and tariff policy uncertainties [4][6]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The cost side is supported by the rebound of crude oil and coal. However, it's the off-season for agricultural films with many factories shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7160 (+10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 94, with a premium ratio of 1.3%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 576,000 tons (+36,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with cost support, weak demand in the off - season, high industrial inventory, and new capacity pressure [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support; bearish factors include new capacity release and weak demand. The main logic lies in the cost - demand game and tariff policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The cost side has support from the rebound of crude oil and coal. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7100 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 175, with a premium ratio of 2.5%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 605,000 tons (+52,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, with cost support, weak overall demand, and high industrial inventory [6]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support; bearish factors include weak demand. The main logic lies in the cost - demand game and tariff policies [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 7160 (+10), the 09 contract price is 7066 (+32), the basis is 94 (-22), the warehouse receipt is 5254 (+10), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 576,000 tons, and the social inventory is 583,000 tons [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 7100 (0), the 09 contract price is 6925 (+14), the basis is 175 (-14), the warehouse receipt is 4885 (-149), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 605,000 tons, and the social inventory is 243,000 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has also been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has shown some fluctuations, and the consumption growth rate has been positive overall [15].