交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-3-2 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，2月官方制造业PMI为50.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，重回扩张区间。 中东伊朗局势再度升级，美以展开军事进攻，目前霍尔木兹海峡航运中断，外盘原油跳空高开， 当前伊朗未给出解除封锁时间表，具体对原油后续影响和封锁时间相关，短期对聚烯烃估值支撑 显著。供需端，农膜方面，下游企业复工、需求恢复偏慢，包装膜刚需低负荷开工，预计元宵前 后快速恢复，管材方面陆续开工。当前LL交割品现货价6500（-100），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-97，升贴水比例-1.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存62.7万吨（+25.9），偏空； • ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-25 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 中东美伊局势升级，原油上涨，地缘政治溢价明显，支撑聚烯烃成本。美最高法院裁定特朗普关 税违法，其立刻宣布对全球加征15%进口关税，制品未来出口可能受影响。国内方面，3月两会可 能的刺激政策、特朗普来访前中美的谈判博弈均有可能增加市场对需求预期。供需端，农膜方面， 多数企业尚未复工，包装膜企业低负荷逐渐复工，管材方面受天气制约复工仍受限。当前LL交割 品现货价6640（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-180，升贴水比例-2.6%，偏空； • 3. 库 ...

聚烯烃早报 2026-2-13 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。当前原油回归震荡，前期因受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，走势波动大，聚烯烃跟随波动偏大。 供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，多数企业停工，整体订单少，包装膜企业同样多数停工。当前LL 交割品现货价6600（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-134，升贴水比例-2.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存36.7万吨（-3.6），偏多； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-2-12 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。当前原油回归震荡，前期因受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，走势波动大，聚烯烃跟随波动偏大。 供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，多数企业停工，整体订单少，包装膜企业同样多数停工。当前LL 交割品现货价6600（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-187，升贴水比例-2.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存36.7万吨（-3.6），偏多； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: February 11, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Core Views - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, but downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] - The main logic for both LLDPE and PP is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal changes are sensitive [6][8] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Crude oil has returned to a volatile state, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have shut down, with few orders. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6600 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -175, with a premium - discount ratio of -2.6%, which is bearish [4] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PE inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4), which is bullish [4] Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [6] - Bearish factor: Weak downstream demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start - up of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and pipe demand has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6650 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -38, with a premium - discount ratio of -0.6%, which is bearish [7] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PP inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5), which is bullish [7] Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [7] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Factors - Bullish factor: Cost support [8] - Bearish factor: Weak downstream demand [8] Supply - Demand Balance Tables Polyethylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and net import volume of polyethylene have changed. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14] Polypropylene - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and net import volume of polypropylene have changed. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the consumption growth rate has also fluctuated. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: February 10, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors have led to strong cost support, but the downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in the first quarter of 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. The current crude oil has returned to volatility, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have stopped work, with few overall orders. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6650 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -71, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 403,000 tons (+54,000), which is bullish [4] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract has increased, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, the cost support is strong. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream has stopped work near the Spring Festival [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in the first quarter of 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. The current crude oil has returned to volatility, and polyolefins have followed with large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start-up of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and the demand for pipes has also been affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery spot price is 6650 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 20, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 416,000 tons (+15,000), which is bullish [7] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, which is neutral [7] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has decreased, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in the first quarter and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, the cost support is strong. The industrial inventory is neutral, and the downstream has stopped work near the Spring Festival [7] Supply and Demand Balance Tables - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.3195 billion tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also generally shown an upward trend, and the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4.906 billion tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16] Other Information - **Spot and Futures Market Data**: The report provides detailed spot and futures market data for LLDPE and PP, including prices, changes, and inventory information [9] - **Charts**: The report includes multiple charts showing the price trends, basis, inventory, and production cash flow of LLDPE and PP [10][12][17]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: February 6, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Report's Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral, and their futures prices are expected to fluctuate today [4][7] - The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support for polyolefins [4][7] - The downstream demand for both LLDPE and PP is weak, and the supply-demand relationship is sensitive to marginal changes [6][8] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended its production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Affected by geopolitical factors, the crude oil price is strong and volatile, driving the polyolefins with poor device profits and strong cost support to follow the fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries is weak. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,750 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -27, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 403,000 tons (+54,000 tons), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro environment and crude oil situation affect PP. PDH device maintenance is relatively high. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,650 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -26, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.4%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 416,000 tons (+15,000 tons), showing a relatively high level [7] - **Market**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, showing a bullish trend [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Supply-Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with the capacity growth rate reaching 20.5% in 2025E [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with the capacity growth rate expected to be 11.0% in 2025E [16] Other Information - The report also includes data on spot prices, futures prices, inventory changes, production cash flows, and internal and external price differences of LLDPE and PP, as well as corresponding trend charts [9][10][12][17][19][21][23][25][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, while industrial inventories are neutral. However, downstream demand is weak, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Affected by geopolitical factors, the crude oil trend is strong, driving polyolefins to fluctuate. Near the Spring Festival, the demand from downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6750 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 168, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4), neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk fluctuates. With cost support and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong crude oil [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply - demand is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing PMI is in the contraction range, OPEC+ suspends production increase, and crude oil drives polyolefins. PDH device maintenance is relatively frequent. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6690 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 111, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.6%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5), which is relatively high [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position decreases, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk fluctuates. With cost support, neutral industrial inventory, and increased PDH device maintenance, it is expected to fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong crude oil [8] - **Negative Factors**: Off - season for downstream demand [8] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply - demand is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6750 (unchanged), the 05 - contract futures price is 6918 (+53), and the basis is - 168 (-53). The PE comprehensive factory inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4) [9] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6690 (unchanged), the 05 - contract futures price is 6801 (+71), and the basis is - 111 (-71). The PP comprehensive factory inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. For LLDPE, factors such as cost support from oil prices and neutral industry inventory are considered, but downstream demand is weak. For PP, similar factors like cost support and increased PDH device maintenance are noted, along with weak downstream demand in the off - season [4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, entering the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Due to geopolitical disturbances, oil prices are strong with short - term declines, affecting polyolefins. Near the Spring Festival, demand from the agricultural film and packaging film industries is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6880 (-60), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2605 contract basis is 2, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.0%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 34.8 tons (-3.1), which is relatively high [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with short positions decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, there is strong cost support, and the industry inventory is neutral [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong oil prices are positive factors, while weak downstream demand year - on - year is a negative factor. The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand margin is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. OPEC+ suspended the Q1 2026 production increase plan. Geopolitical disturbances affect oil prices and polyolefins. PDH device maintenance is relatively high. Near the Spring Festival, demand from the plastic weaving and pipe industries is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6720 (-30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The PP 2605 contract basis is 6, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.1%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 40.1 tons (-3.2), which is relatively high [7] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with short positions increasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile. With OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, there is strong cost support, the industry inventory is neutral, and PDH device maintenance has increased [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong oil prices are positive factors, while the off - season of downstream demand is a negative factor. The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand margin is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 6880 (-60), the 05 contract price is 6878 (-136), the basis is 2, the warehouse receipt is 9308 (-71), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 34.8 tons, and the social inventory is 48.5 tons [9] - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 6720 (-30), the 05 contract price is 6714 (-110), the basis is 6, the warehouse receipt is 17223 (-13), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 40.1 tons, and the social inventory is 26.9 tons [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and other data are provided, with capacity showing an overall increasing trend. For example, in 2024, the capacity was 3584.5, with a growth rate of 12.4% [14] - **Polypropylene**: Similar to polyethylene, from 2018 - 2024, capacity, production, net imports, and other data are provided, and capacity also shows an increasing trend. For example, in 2024, the capacity was 4418.5, with a growth rate of 13.5% [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: February 2, 2026 - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, while industrial inventories are neutral [4][7] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Analysis - The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Geopolitical disturbances in Iran have led to a strong crude oil trend, driving up the polyolefin market. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for agricultural films and packaging films is weak. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6940 (+60), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis Analysis - The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [4] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PE inventory is 348,000 tons (-31,000), indicating a bullish signal [4] Market Analysis - The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [4] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4] Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: cost support and crude oil rebound - Bearish factors: weak downstream demand year-on-year - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [6] PP Analysis Fundamental Analysis - Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ decided to suspend the production increase plan in Q1 2026 due to weak seasonal demand. Geopolitical disturbances in Iran have led to a strong crude oil trend, driving up the polyolefin market. PDH device maintenance is frequent. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current PP delivery spot price is 6750 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] Basis Analysis - The basis of the PP 2605 contract is -74, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.1%, indicating a bearish signal [7] Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive PP inventory is 401,000 tons (-32,000), indicating a bullish signal [7] Market Analysis - The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [7] Main Position Analysis - The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, indicating a bearish signal [7] Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: cost support and crude oil rebound - Bearish factors: off-season downstream demand - Main logic: oversupply, sensitive to marginal changes in supply and demand [9] Market Data Spot and Futures Prices - LLDPE: The spot delivery price is 6940 (+60), and the 05 contract price is 7014 (-35) - PP: The spot delivery price is 6750 (+0), and the 05 contract price is 6824 (-46) [10] Inventory Data - LLDPE: The warehouse receipt is 9379 (-19), and the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 348,000 tons - PP: The warehouse receipt is 17236 (0), and the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 401,000 tons [10] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15] Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]