交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-27 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的部 分限制措施，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，OPEC + 11 月12日将原油市场供不应求调整为供过于求，引发油价下跌。供需端，农膜需求有所回落， 其余膜类以刚需为主。当前LL交割品现货价6810（-30），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差103，升贴水比例1.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55.4万吨（-2.5），偏空； ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-11-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的部 分限制措施，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，OPEC + 11 月12日将原油市场供不应求调整为供过于求，引发油价下跌。供需端，农膜需求有所回落， 其余膜类以刚需为主。当前LL交割品现货价6840（-20），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差70，升贴水比例1.0%，偏多； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存55.4万吨（-2.5），偏空； ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 7, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for LLDPE and PP is bearish, with expectations of weak and volatile trends today. The main factors include an oversupply situation, a decline in manufacturing PMI, limited support from the cost side of crude oil, and relatively high industrial inventories. However, the recent rebound in oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the phased easing of Sino-US relations may provide some support [4][6]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to the polyolefin cost side. The peak demand season for agricultural films continues, but inventory replenishment for other films is ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6750 (-80), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -55, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.8%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 540,000 tons (+74,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be weak and volatile. With an oversupply in the fundamentals, recent Sino - US talks, and the escalation of sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in crude oil prices, and relatively high industrial inventories, PE is expected to trend weakly and volatile today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and phased easing of Sino - US relations [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The long - term pattern of crude oil remains unchanged in terms of cost support. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6500 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 29, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 600,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be weak and volatile. Considering the oversupply in the fundamentals, Sino - US talks, the rebound in crude oil prices, and relatively high industrial inventories, PP is expected to trend weakly and volatile today [6]. - **Likely Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and phased easing of Sino - US relations [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and significant new production capacity coming online in the fourth quarter [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports Core Views Methanol - The methanol market is currently trading on the "weak reality" logic, with the core contradiction being high port inventories. The inventory issue for the 01 contract cannot be resolved, and the weak reality will continue to be priced in until the Iranian gas restriction [3]. Polyolefins (LLDPE & PP) - PP supply recovery has slowed due to unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase as maintenance nears its peak. Demand has improved, but there is still pressure as supply is expected to increase while demand may decrease. The 01 contract faces inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may present long - term low - buying opportunities, and the month - spread is biased towards reverse arbitrage [8]. Chlor - alkali (Caustic Soda & PVC) - In November, the caustic soda market faces supply - demand pressure, with prices expected to be weak and stable. PVC's supply - demand imbalance remains unimproved, with prices likely to continue weak and volatile, and a strategy of short - selling on rebounds is recommended [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to be loose in November, with weak price drivers. Short - term trading of BZ2603 should focus on short - selling on rallies following oil prices. Styrene supply may slightly decrease, and demand is expected to change little. The supply - demand situation is currently loose, and prices are expected to have limited drivers. EB12 should be short - sold on rebounds [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX supply is stable, but its price rebound is limited. PTA supply - demand is slightly loose, and its price rebound is under pressure. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory, and its price faces upward pressure. Short - fiber prices are gradually under pressure, and bottle - chip supply - demand remains loose [11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: On October 31st, MA2601 closed at 2180, down 28 (-1.27%) from the previous day; MA2605 closed at 2260, down 24 (-1.05%); the MA15 spread was -80, down 4 (5.26%); the Taicang basis was -50, down 5 (11.11%); spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all declined [1]. - **Inventories**: Methanol enterprise inventories increased by 1.57 (4.36%) to 37.606%; port inventories decreased by 0.57 (-0.38%) to 150.6 million tons; social inventories increased by 1.00 (0.53%) to 188.3% [2]. - **开工率**: Domestic upstream enterprise开工率 decreased by 0.07 (-0.09%) to 75.78%; overseas upstream开工率 decreased by 2.68 (-3.65%) to 70.7%; downstream MTO装置开工率 increased by 5.96 (7.63%) to 84.06% [3]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: On November 3rd, L2601 closed at 6888, down 11 (-0.16%); PP2601 closed at 6576, down 14 (-0.21%); some spot and futures prices and spreads changed [8]. - **Inventories**: PE enterprise inventories decreased by 9.86 (-19.16%) to 41.6; social inventories decreased by 1.80 (-3.30%) to 52.7 million tons; PP enterprise inventories decreased by 4.34 (-6.80%) to 59.5 million tons; trader inventories decreased by 2.50 (-10.48%) to 21.4 [8]. - **开工率**: PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.59 (-0.73%) to 60.9; downstream weighted开工率 decreased by 0.38 (-0.83%) to 45.4; PP装置开工率 increased by 1.13 (1.5%) to 77.1; downstream weighted开工率 increased by 0.24 (0.5%) to 52.6 [8]. Chlor - alkali - **Prices and Spreads**: On November 3rd, the price of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda remained unchanged at 2500; the price of East China PVC decreased, and some futures prices and spreads changed [9]. - **Supply**: The caustic soda industry开工率 increased by 2.8 (3.3%) to 88.3; PVC总开工率 increased by 3.4 (4.5%) to 77.1 [9]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of some caustic soda downstream industries changed slightly, and the开工率 of PVC downstream products increased [9]. - **Inventories**: Liquid caustic soda inventories in East China and Shandong increased, PVC upstream factory inventories increased slightly, and total social inventories decreased by 1.0 (-1.8%) to 54.5 [9]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On November 3rd, Brent crude oil (December) was at $64.89, down $0.18 (-0.3%); CFR China pure benzene was at $681, up $4 (0.6%); some pure benzene prices and spreads changed [10]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene East China spot price was 6440, down 30 (-0.5%); EB12 - EB01 was -49, down 8 (-19.5%); some other prices and spreads also changed [10]. - **Inventories**: Pure benzene Jiangsu port inventories increased by 3.60 (42.4%) to 12.10 million tons; styrene Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 1.37 (-7.1%) to 17.93 million tons [10]. - **开工率**: Asian pure benzene开工率 decreased by 0.4% (-0.5%) to 78.8%; domestic pure benzene开工率 increased by 1.4% (1.9%) to 74.1%; styrene开工率 decreased by 2.5% (-3.7%) to 66.7% [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: On November 3rd, Brent crude oil (January) was at $64.89, up $0.12 (0.2%); CFR China PX was at $820, unchanged; some other upstream prices changed [11]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: POY150/48 price was 6515, up 100 (1.6%); POY150/48 cash flow was 37, up 91; some other downstream product prices and cash flows changed [11]. - **Inventories**: MEG port inventories increased by 3.9 (7.5%) to 56.2 million tons; MEG to - port expectations decreased by 0.9 (-4.5%) to 18 [11]. - **开工率**: Asian PX开工率 decreased by 0.4% to 78.1%; China PX开工率 increased by 1.1% to 87.0%; PTA开工率 decreased by 0.8% to 78.0% [11].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: November 4, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trade sideways today, with the plastic main contract fluctuating, oil prices rebounding due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the Sino-US meeting, and the peak season demand for agricultural films continuing [4]. - PP is also expected to trade sideways today, with the main contract fluctuating, oil prices rebounding, and downstream peak season demand supporting [6]. Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support to polyolefin costs. The Sino - US leaders' meeting led to the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" and a one - year suspension of the 301 investigation. The sanctions on Russian oil by the US and Europe in late October led to an oil price rebound. The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, while the restocking of other films is gradually ending. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6910 (-60), with overall neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 22, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 46.6 tons (-9.9), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is long, which is bullish [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors include new sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound and the Sino - US meeting reaching a phased easing; negative factors include weaker year - on - year demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows a decline in manufacturing sentiment. The Sino - US meeting and Russian oil sanctions affected oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current PP delivery spot price is 6550 (-80), with overall neutral fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 26, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.4%, which is neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 59.5 tons (-4.3), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Positive factors are the same as LLDPE; negative factors also include weaker year - on - year demand and more new production in the fourth quarter [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6910 (-60), the 01 contract price is 6888 (-11), the basis is 22 (-49), and the PE comprehensive inventory shows different changes in various types [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6550 (-80), the 01 contract price is 6576 (-14), the basis is - 26 (-66), and the PP comprehensive inventory also has different changes in various types [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth rates and changes. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed, with the import dependence gradually decreasing and the consumption growth rate showing fluctuations [15].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 3, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by factors such as the rebound of crude oil prices due to new sanctions on Russian oil and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations, while facing challenges like weak demand and new production capacity in the fourth quarter. For PP, similar factors are at play, with downstream peak - season demand providing some support [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" in crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the cost of polyolefins. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting on October 30, the US cancelled the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspended the 301 investigation measures in the maritime and logistics sectors for one year, while China adjusted counter - measures accordingly. In late October, the sanctions on Russian oil by the US and Europe were upgraded, leading to a rebound in oil prices. The peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, with high - level operations, and the restocking of other films is gradually ending. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6970 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 71, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.0%, which is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 466,000 tons (-99,000), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today, influenced by the Sino - US meeting in Busan, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the continued peak - season demand for agricultural films, and the neutral industrial inventory [4] - **Leveraging Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official PMI in October was 49, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The long - term "increasing supply and decreasing demand" pattern in crude oil persists, with limited cost support for polyolefins. After the Sino - US meeting, relevant policies were adjusted, and the sanctions on Russian oil led to a rebound in oil prices. The demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has improved. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6630 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is 40, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 595,000 tons (-43,000), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today, affected by the Sino - US meeting, the upgrade of sanctions on Russian oil, the rebound of crude oil prices, the downstream peak - season demand support, and the relatively high - level neutral industrial inventory [6] - **Leveraging Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to a rebound in oil prices and the temporary easing of Sino - US relations [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand compared to the same period last year and a large number of new production capacity launches in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, along with domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6970 (-20), the price of the 01 contract is 6899 (-69), the basis is 71, the import price in US dollars is 813 (0), the import - converted price is 7107 (12), and the import price difference is - 137 (-32). The number of warehouse receipts is 12,706 (-39) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6630 (0), the price of the 01 contract is 6590 (-61), the basis is 40, the import price in US dollars is 790 (0), the import - converted price is 6910 (11), and the import price difference is - 280 (-11). The number of warehouse receipts is 14,569 (0) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polyethylene have shown different growth trends. The production capacity has increased year by year, with a capacity growth rate of 20.5% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has gradually decreased, from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The production capacity has been increasing, with a capacity growth rate of 11.0% expected in 2025E. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [15]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda: Supply is at a high level, with weak demand support in the short - term due to shrinking industry profits in downstream alumina. However, there may be demand support in the medium - to long - term as the procurement cycle approaches and alumina has more planned production in Q1 next year [1]. - PVC: Supply returns to a high level as some maintenance enterprises resume production. Domestic downstream demand remains weak, and cost provides bottom - line support. The market is expected to be lackluster during the peak season [1]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is generally stable, and demand support has strengthened. It is in a situation of high short - term supply and demand but with a weak overall outlook. Cost support is limited, and the rebound space is restricted [2]. - PTA: Spot basis is weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure due to factors such as the resumption of some device loads and the decline in oil prices [2]. - MEG: Port inventory decreases, but the upward driving force weakens. The far - month supply - demand structure is weak, and there is significant upward pressure [2]. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand has improved slightly, but the overall supply - demand drive is limited. The price rebound is expected to face pressure, but it has relatively stronger support at low inventory levels [2]. - Bottle - chips: Entering the seasonal inventory accumulation period, it mainly follows cost fluctuations, and the processing fee fluctuates [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: Domestic supply is loose, and demand support is limited. The overall supply - demand expectation is still loose, and price drive is limited. It follows oil prices and styrene fluctuations [5]. - Styrene: Under inventory and profit pressure, supply pressure still exists, and demand support is limited. The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the rebound is expected to face pressure [5]. Methanol - The port market is under pressure due to high inventory and weak demand. The inland market has price inversion problems. The MTO load decreases, and demand support is insufficient. The price is expected to decline in the short - term, and attention should be paid to port de - stocking and overseas gas - limiting expectations [8]. Polyolefins - PP: Supply recovery slows down due to more unplanned maintenance. PE: Supply is expected to increase as maintenance peaks. Demand has warmed up, and inventory is decreasing. The 01 contract has inventory pressure, while the 05 contract may have long - term low - buying opportunities [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices**: Some PVC spot and futures prices changed slightly, and caustic soda prices were mostly stable [1]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry and some regional开工 rates increased slightly, while PVC total开工 rate decreased [1]. - **Demand**: Caustic soda downstream开工 rates were mostly stable, and PVC downstream制品开工 rates increased slightly [1]. - **Inventory**: Both caustic soda and PVC inventories decreased to some extent [1]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream prices**: PX, ethylene, and other prices changed slightly, and oil prices increased slightly [2]. - **Downstream product prices and cash flows**: Prices and cash flows of polyester products such as FDY, bottle - chips, and short - fibers changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. - **开工 rates**: The综合开工 rate of polyester was stable, and the开工 rates of some segments such as PTA and MEG changed [2]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream prices and spreads**: Prices of crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and spreads also changed [5]. - **Benzene - related prices and spreads**: Benzene and styrene prices decreased, and spreads changed [5]. - **Downstream cash flows**: Cash flows of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene improved [5]. - **Inventory**: Both pure benzene and styrene port inventories decreased [5]. - **开工 rates**:开工 rates of some segments in the pure benzene and styrene industry chain decreased [5]. Methanol - **Prices and spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased, and spreads changed [6]. - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventory increased, port inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory increased slightly [7]. - **开工 rates**: Upstream domestic and overseas enterprise开工 rates decreased slightly, and some downstream开工 rates increased while others decreased [8]. Polyolefins - **Prices and spreads**: PE and PP futures and spot prices decreased, and spreads changed [10]. - **Inventory**: Both PE and PP inventories decreased [10]. - **开工 rates**: PE装置开工率 decreased slightly, and downstream加权开工率 increased. PP装置开工率 decreased, and some downstream开工 rates increased [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-10-31 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，9月份，官方PMI为49.8，比上月上升0.4个百分点，制造业景气度有所 改善，但仍位于收缩区间。原油中长期 "供增需减" 格局未改，对聚烯烃成本端支撑有限。10 月 30 日，中美两国领导人在韩国釜山举行面对面会晤，美方取消针对中国商品的 10%"芬太尼 关税"，暂停对华海事、物流等领域 301 调查措施一年，中方同步调整反制措施，美欧对俄油 进行新一轮制裁，油价反弹。供需端，农膜旺季需求延续，开工稳，其余膜类备货结束开工下滑。 当前LL交割品现货价6990（-30），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差22，升贴水比例0.3%，中性 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend slightly stronger with oscillations today, while PP is also expected to trend slightly stronger with oscillations [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium - long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, causing the oil price to rebound. In terms of supply and demand, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed restocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7000 (+90), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 31, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, indicating a bearish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds with oscillations. China - US negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, Russian oil is under a new round of sanctions, the oil price rebounds, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will trend slightly stronger with oscillations today [4] - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [5] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand are driven by domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium - long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, causing the oil price to rebound. In terms of supply and demand, the demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6600 (+50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 62, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.9%, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 63.9 million tons (-4.0), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, indicating a bearish trend [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds with oscillations. China - US negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, Russian oil is under a new round of sanctions, the oil price rebounds, downstream peak - season demand is supported, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will trend slightly stronger with oscillations today [6] - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [7] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand are driven by domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7000 (change: +20), the price of the 01 contract is 6969 (change: - 30), the basis is 31 (change: +50), the warehouse receipt is 12958 (change: 0), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 56.5 million tons (change: 0.0), and the PE social inventory is 54.5 million tons (change: 0.0) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6600 (change: - 20), the price of the 01 contract is 6662 (change: - 29), the basis is - 62 (change: +9), the warehouse receipt is 14586 (change: 0), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 63.9 million tons (change: 0.0), and the PP social inventory is 33.0 million tons (change: 0.0) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have changed. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 3584.5, the output is 2773.8, the net import is 1360.32, and the apparent consumption is 4134.12. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have changed. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the output is 3425, the net import is 360, and the apparent consumption is 3785. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the plastics and PP main contracts expected to fluctuate weakly today. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins is limited. The outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations is uncertain, and oil prices are continuously falling [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, the agricultural film operation was stable with a slight increase in the start - up rate, and the demand for other films was good as Double 11 approached. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price was 6920 (+0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract was 41, and the premium - discount ratio was 0.6%, which was bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory was 58.0 tons (+3.7), which was neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract decreased, which was bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, stable operation of the agricultural film industry, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PE was expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. - **Positive Factors**: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [5]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing prosperity improved but was still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remained unchanged, and the cost - side support for polyolefins was limited. On the 18th, Sino - US economic and trade leaders held a video call, and there was still uncertainty in Sino - US trade negotiations, causing oil prices to fall. On the supply - demand side, plastic weaving was supported by the peak season and performed well, while the demand for pipes increased but was still weak year - on - year. The current PP delivery product spot price was 6550 (-0), and the overall fundamentals were bearish [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract was - 15, and the premium - discount ratio was - 0.2%, which was neutral [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory was 67.9 tons (-0.3), which was bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day line, which was bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract decreased, which was bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract was expected to fluctuate weakly. With the decline in crude oil prices, the launch of new production capacity, the maintenance of the average downstream start - up rate, and a moderately high industrial inventory, the PP was expected to fluctuate weakly today [6]. - **Positive Factors**: The demand in the peak season increased month - on - month [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand was weak year - on - year, there were many new production projects in the fourth quarter, and there were Sino - US trade risks [7]. - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand were driven by domestic macro - policies [7]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price was 6920 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6879 (+5), the basis was 41 (-5), the comprehensive PE factory inventory was 58.0 tons, and the social PE inventory was 54.6 tons [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price was 6550 (unchanged), the 01 - contract price was 6565 (+14), the basis was - 15 (-14), the comprehensive PP factory inventory was 67.9 tons, and the social PP inventory was 34.9 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with the production capacity growth rate reaching 20.5% in 2025E [12]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally increased, with the production capacity growth rate expected to be 11.0% in 2025E [14].