交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-8-25 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，7 月中国官方制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，环比降 0.4 个百分点，连续 4 个月收缩，财新7月制造业 PMI 从 50.4 降至 49.5，同样收缩，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同 比增 7.2%。8月20日，彭博社报道，针对石化与炼油行业的全面改革方案正在酝酿，拟解决长期 产能过剩，预计9月出台。供需端，农膜整体需求不及预期，膜类开工偏低。当前LL交割品现货 价7300（+70），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-80，升贴水比例-1.1%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存56.4万吨（+5.9），偏空； • 4. ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Date: August 12, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by cost support but also faces weak demand. For PP, similar factors of cost support and weak demand are at play. The domestic macro - policy has an impact on the market, but after the sentiment cools down, the market returns to the fundamentals [4][6][7] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In July, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month, in contraction for 4 consecutive months. The Caixin manufacturing PMI dropped from 50.4 to 49.5. Exports in July were $321.78 billion, up 7.2% year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy improved commodity expectations, but the market returned to fundamentals after the sentiment cooled. Short - term oil prices fluctuated downward. In the supply - demand side, it's the off - season for agricultural films, with a slight recovery in short - term production but still at a low level. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 7260 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 54, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.7%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 577,000 tons (+14,000), which is bearish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates. The increase from the "anti - involution" policy has reversed. It's the off - season for agricultural film demand, downstream demand is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It's expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [6] - **Main Logic**: Cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy drive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro data shows contraction in the manufacturing sector. The "anti - involution" policy impact fades. Short - term oil prices fluctuate downward. It's the off - season for downstream demand, mainly driven by rigid demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving remains weak. The current PP delivery spot price is 7100 (- 0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is - 20, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 587,000 tons (+6,000), which is bearish [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates. The increase from the "anti - involution" policy has reversed. The demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving is weak, and industrial inventory is neutral. It's expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [9] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [9] - **Main Logic**: Cost, demand, and domestic macro - policy drive [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 7260 (+20), the 09 contract price is 7314 (+24), the basis is - 54 (- 4), the warehouse receipt is 6282 (+400), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 577,000 tons, and the PE social inventory is 569,000 tons (- 7,000) [10] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 7100 (- 0), the 09 contract price is 7095 (+33), the basis is - 20 (- 29), the warehouse receipt is 12540 (+0), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 587,000 tons, and the PP social inventory is 284,000 tons [10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP, indicating that both are expected to show a volatile trend today. The market is influenced by factors such as cost support, macro - policies promoting the steady growth of the petrochemical industry, and weak demand. The main risk factors include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [4][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. On July 14, the US threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian crude oil within 50 days. On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced a plan to promote the steady growth of key industries including the petrochemical industry. The downstream demand is generally weak, with the agricultural film in the off - season and the packaging film slightly improved. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7260 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 28, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.4%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.3 million tons (-2.4), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - steady growth plan, with the off - season of agricultural film demand and weak downstream demand, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the steady growth of the petrochemical industry [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, returning above the critical point. The downstream demand is in the off - season, with the demand for pipes and plastic weaving being weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 84, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.2%, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 million tons (+1.5), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds on the disk. Driven by the macro - steady growth plan, with weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and the industrial inventory being neutral, it is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and macro - policies promoting the steady growth of the petrochemical industry [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [8]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7260 (+20), the price of the 09 contract is 7288 (-80), the basis is - 28, the warehouse receipt is 5822 (unchanged), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 56.3 million tons (-2.4), and the PE social inventory is 55.8 million tons (+2.2) [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7180 (+30), the price of the 09 contract is 7096 (-72), the basis is 84, the warehouse receipt is 12642 (+400), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 58.1 million tons (+1.5), and the PP social inventory is 27.4 million tons (+1.6) [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with cost and demand in a state of competition, and tariff policies also having an impact. It is expected that the PE and PP markets will show a volatile trend today [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production increase statement on July 5, increasing production for the fourth consecutive month. The agricultural film is in the off - season, downstream demand is weak, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7190 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -24, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.7 million tons (+3.3), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish tendency [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With OPEC's consecutive production increases, the off - season of agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and ongoing production pressure, and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4]. - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are new capacity launch and weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC increased production for the fourth consecutive month. It is the off - season for downstream demand, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 167, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.4%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.6 million tons (-1.5), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, showing a bearish tendency [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With OPEC's consecutive production increases, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and a neutral industrial inventory, it is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7]. - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factor is weak demand. The main logic is the game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with cost and demand in a state of game - playing, and the market is affected by tariff policies. The expected trend for both PE and PP today is oscillatory [4][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI in June was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May, back above the critical point. OPEC issued a production - increase statement on July 5, with production increasing for the fourth consecutive month. It's the off - season for agricultural films, downstream demand is weak, and there is still pressure from new capacity coming on stream. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7260 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is -24, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 55.4 tons (+5.4), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and production pressure still exist. With neutral industrial inventory, PE is expected to oscillate today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, while new capacity launches and weak demand are bearish factors [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macroeconomic indicators show a contraction range for PMI and an increase in OPEC production. It's the off - season for downstream demand, and the current spot price of PP delivery products is 7180 (-0). The overall fundamentals are bearish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 113, with a premium/discount ratio of 1.6%, considered bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 tons (+1.1), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, also bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to oscillate. OPEC's consecutive production increases, weak downstream demand for pipes and plastic weaving, and neutral industrial inventory suggest an oscillatory trend for PP today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support is a bullish factor, and weak demand is a bearish factor [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have shown various trends. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 20.5% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import volume, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also changed. The capacity growth rate in 2025E is expected to be 11.0% [17].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 - Research Department: Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures - Analyst: Jin Zebin Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to fluctuate today due to factors such as the cease - fire in the Middle East leading to a decline in crude oil prices, the off - season for agricultural film demand, weak downstream demand, and ongoing production capacity pressure, despite cost support [4]. - The PP market is also expected to show a fluctuating trend, with similar influencing factors including weak downstream demand and the impact of the cease - fire on crude oil prices [7]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In June, the PMI was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 2.1 percentage points from May. After the cease - fire in the Middle East, crude oil prices fell. The agricultural film is in the off - season, downstream demand for packaging film is weak, and there is still pressure from new production capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7280 (+50), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is - 4, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.1%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 500,000 tons (- 5000), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish sentiment [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. LLDPE Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support [6] - **Bearish Factors**: New production capacity release and weak demand [6] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro - data. The downstream demand for PP is in the off - season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7250 (- 0), with overall bearish fundamentals [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 176, and the premium/discount ratio is 2.5%, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 570,000 tons (- 15,000), considered neutral [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish signal [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish sentiment [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate today [7] PP Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Cost support [9] - **Bearish Factors**: Weak demand [9] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, along with tariff policies [9] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7280 (+50), the 09 - contract price is 7284 (- 4), the basis is - 4, and the comprehensive PE inventory is 500,000 tons (- 5000) [4][10] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7250 (- 0), the 09 - contract price is 7074 (+2), the basis is 176, and the comprehensive PP inventory is 570,000 tons (- 15,000) [7][10] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [15] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased, with changes in import dependence and consumption growth rates. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [17]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: June 13, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to fluctuate today. The cost side provides support, but there are pressures from new capacity and weak demand [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The situation regarding China-US tariffs has eased, but the final negotiation result remains uncertain. Recently, crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. It's the off - season for agricultural films, with many factories shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7210 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 93, with a premium - discount ratio of 1.3%, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.9 million tons (-0.7), showing a neutral situation [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With recent cost support, off - season demand for agricultural films, new capacity pressure, and relatively high industrial inventory, the PE market is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support on the recent cost side [5] - **Negative Factors**: New capacity launch and weak demand [5] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, and tariff policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, and the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The China - US tariff situation has eased, but the result is uncertain. Crude oil and coal prices have rebounded, supporting the cost side. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7150 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 181, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.6%, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 58.1 million tons (-2.4), showing a neutral situation [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, with a reduction in long positions, indicating a bullish signal [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate. With recent cost support, weak overall demand, and relatively high industrial inventory, the PP market is expected to fluctuate today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support on the recent cost side [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak demand [7] - **Main Logic**: The game between cost and demand, and tariff policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing year by year [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has also been growing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E [15]

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: June 9, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, but the cost side has recent support. The market is expected to be volatile today due to the cost-demand game and tariff policy uncertainties [4][6]. Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In May, the official PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 from April, while the Caixin PMI was 48.3%, down 2.1 from April. The cost side is supported by the rebound of crude oil and coal. However, it's the off-season for agricultural films with many factories shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7160 (+10), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 94, with a premium ratio of 1.3%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 576,000 tons (+36,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile today, with cost support, weak demand in the off - season, high industrial inventory, and new capacity pressure [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support; bearish factors include new capacity release and weak demand. The main logic lies in the cost - demand game and tariff policies [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE in terms of macro data. The cost side has support from the rebound of crude oil and coal. Downstream demand is mainly for immediate needs, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7100 (-0), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 175, with a premium ratio of 2.5%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 605,000 tons (+52,000), which is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be volatile today, with cost support, weak overall demand, and high industrial inventory [6]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support; bearish factors include weak demand. The main logic lies in the cost - demand game and tariff policies [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 7160 (+10), the 09 contract price is 7066 (+32), the basis is 94 (-22), the warehouse receipt is 5254 (+10), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 576,000 tons, and the social inventory is 583,000 tons [8]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 7100 (0), the 09 contract price is 6925 (+14), the basis is 175 (-14), the warehouse receipt is 4885 (-149), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 605,000 tons, and the social inventory is 243,000 tons [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with a projected 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has been decreasing, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has also been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has shown some fluctuations, and the consumption growth rate has been positive overall [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: May 7, 2025 - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, but there are some bullish factors such as strong basis and inventory reduction. The market is expected to be volatile today [4][6]. Group 4: LLDPE Analysis Fundamentals - In April, the official PMI was 49%, down 1.5 percentage points from March, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from March, both at recent lows. The central bank's statement on "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" has increased market expectations for loose liquidity, but it will take time to transmit to real demand. OPEC+ announced production increases starting in June, weakening the cost support for oil-based polyolefins. In the second quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, the peak season for agricultural films has ended, and overall demand has declined. Affected by tariffs, the export demand for products is expected to weaken. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7350 (-20) [4]. Basis - The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 363, with a premium ratio of 5.2%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Inventory - The comprehensive PE inventory is 46.7 tons (-11.2), showing a bullish sign [4]. Market - The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. Main Position - The net short position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With the decline in PMI data, OPEC's production increase and the weakening of oil prices, and the off-season for agricultural film demand, the industrial chain inventory is moderately high. It is expected that PE will be volatile today [4]. Group 5: PP Analysis Fundamentals - Similar to LLDPE, the fundamentals of PP are also bearish. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7300 (-50). The anti - countermeasures will increase the cost of imported propane, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs recently. Affected by tariffs, the export demand for products is expected to weaken [6]. Basis - The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 305, with a premium ratio of 4.4%, indicating a bullish signal [6]. Inventory - The comprehensive PP inventory is 56.4 tons (-4.0), showing a bullish sign [6]. Market - The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, suggesting a bearish trend [6]. Main Position - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to be volatile and weak. With the decline in PMI data, OPEC's production increase and the weakening of oil prices, and the rigid demand, the industrial chain inventory is moderate. It is expected that PP will be volatile today [6]. Group 6: Supply and Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polyethylene has been increasing, with a growth rate ranging from 5.1% to 19.0%. The import dependence has been decreasing, from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, with some fluctuations in the growth rate [13]. Polypropylene - From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity of polypropylene has been increasing, with a growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 19.0%. The import dependence has been decreasing, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also shown an overall upward trend, with a relatively stable growth rate [15].