1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene supply is expected to decline due to refinery load reduction and planned maintenance, while downstream product prices are rising, improving the supply - demand outlook. Short - term price may follow oil prices, and the strategy is to wait and see and reduce the EB05 - BZ05 spread when it is high [1]. - Styrene supply remains stable with a mix of restarts and maintenance. Demand is weak in procurement, but the supply - demand is still tight. Short - term price follows oil prices, and the strategy is the same as for pure benzene [1]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the market will be a game between supply - demand and cost support, with an expected weakening trend. Attention should be paid to the support at around 1150 for SA605 [2]. - Glass has a similar situation of supply - demand and cost support game. The market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the support at around 1030 for FG605 [2]. Natural Rubber - As domestic production areas start full - scale tapping, supply pressure will dominate the market. The US - Iran conflict affects tire exports, and rubber prices are expected to face pressure [3]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are expected to maintain wide - range fluctuations, with the main factors being geopolitical support and policy suppression. Short - term focus is on the actual resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and negotiation progress [4]. Methanol - The current market is dominated by reduced imports. High volatility requires caution regarding demand sustainability and policy risks. The 05 contract is expected to see significant de - stocking [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a situation of weak supply and demand, and its price is expected to follow oil prices in the short term. The strategy is to wait and see and monitor oil prices [9]. - PTA has limited self - drive, and its absolute price follows the cost side. The strategy is the same as for PX [9]. - Ethylene glycol has upward price momentum in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline after the rise [9]. - Short - fiber has weak self - drive and follows raw material fluctuations. The strategy for the PF contract is to expand the processing margin when it is below 800 [9]. - Polyester bottle - chip supply is expected to be tight, and the processing margin of the PR main contract is expected to be strong [9]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda's fundamentals have marginally improved, but the overall supply - demand is still weak. The price may be affected by export expectations and downstream demand [10]. - PVC has a weak supply - demand situation, but the overall market price is likely to rise due to the impact of rising energy prices [10]. Urea - Urea supply remains in a loose pattern, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, with the main contract focusing on the 1830 - 1900 range [11]. LPG - The LPG market shows price declines in futures contracts. Inventory and upstream - downstream开工率 have some changes, but no clear market trend conclusion is given in the report [12]. Polyolefin - Polyolefins are traded based on the logic of "strong cost, reduced supply", with low valuations. However, demand is limited, and long positions can be reduced [13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Most upstream prices such as crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene decreased on March 25 compared to March 24, with varying decline rates. Some spreads also changed, like the pure benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 335.3% [1]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene prices and related spreads also showed declines, and the EB cash flow (non - integrated) increased by 139.0% [1]. - **Downstream Cash Flows**: Cash flows of downstream products like caprolactam and phenol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 6.6%, while styrene inventory increased by 3.6% [1]. - **开工率**: Asian and domestic pure benzene开工率, as well as downstream product开工率, had different degrees of change [1]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot and futures prices had small changes, and some basis and spreads also changed [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash production and float glass melting volume had slight changes, and the supply - demand situation was generally weak [2]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash factory inventories decreased, and glass factories' soda ash inventory days increased [2]. - **Real Estate Data**: Real estate data showed different trends, with some indicators improving and some still negative [2]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices of natural rubber and related spreads changed, with some prices increasing and some decreasing [3]. - **月间价差**: 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads of natural rubber contracts had varying degrees of change [3]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in some countries,开工率 of tire enterprises, and import and export data of tires and natural rubber had changes [3]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory increased, and factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased [3]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil prices such as Brent, WTI, and SC decreased on March 25 compared to March 24, and various spreads also changed [4]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: Refined oil prices and spreads decreased, with significant decline rates in some products [4]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of refined oil products decreased, with some products having a 100% decline [4]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices, basis, and spreads changed, with some prices decreasing and some spreads increasing [7]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories decreased [7]. - **开工率**: Upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol had different degrees of change, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Upstream prices such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX decreased, and related spreads also changed [9]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Downstream polyester product prices and cash flows had different degrees of change, with some prices decreasing and some cash flows increasing [9]. - **PX - related Prices and Spreads**: PX prices and spreads decreased, and some spreads had significant decline rates [9]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: PTA prices and spreads decreased, and the basis and processing margin also changed [9]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: MEG prices and spreads decreased, and the inventory and to - port expectations also changed [9]. - **开工率**:开工率 of various products in the polyester industry chain had different degrees of change [9]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: PVC and caustic soda spot and futures prices had changes, and some spreads and basis also changed [10]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes and export profits of PVC and caustic soda increased [10]. - **Supply**:开工率 of caustic soda and PVC decreased, and the profit of PVC production also changed [10]. - **Demand**:开工率 of downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC had different degrees of change [10]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventories of caustic soda and PVC decreased [10]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Urea futures prices and spreads changed, with some prices decreasing and some spreads increasing [11]. - **主力持仓**: The main positions of urea trading decreased [11]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Upstream raw material prices such as coal and synthetic ammonia had small changes [11]. - **Spot Prices**: Urea spot prices in different regions had small changes [11]. - **价差**: Regional, cross - border, and basis spreads of urea had different degrees of change [11]. - **Downstream Products**: Prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizer had different degrees of change [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea daily production,开工率, and inventory had changes, with supply being loose and demand being weak [11]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures prices decreased, and some spreads and basis also changed [12]. - **外盘价格**: LPG outer - market prices decreased, with different decline rates for different contracts [12]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery and port inventories increased, and the inventory ratio also changed [12]. - **开工率**: Upstream and downstream开工率 of LPG had different degrees of change [12]. Polyolefin - **Prices and Spreads**: LLDPE and PP futures prices decreased, and some spreads and basis also changed [13]. - **Non - standard Prices**: Non - standard prices of PE and PP decreased, with different decline rates [13]. - **开工率**: PE and PP装置开工率 and downstream加权开工率 had different degrees of change [13]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and social inventories had different degrees of change [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry - PX: Short - term supply - demand is weak, but cost support is strong. Suggest a phased low - long approach with put options for hedging, and avoid chasing positive spreads in the month - spread [1]. - PTA: Short - term self - drive is limited, and the absolute price follows the cost. Adopt a phased low - long strategy with put options for hedging, and avoid chasing positive spreads in the month - spread [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: There is upward momentum before the resumption of Middle - East oil transportation, but beware of the risk of a sharp fall after the rise. Lightly buy EG2605 call options [1]. - Short - fiber: Short - term self - drive is weak, following raw material fluctuations. PF's unilateral strategy is the same as PTA, and its processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1100 [1]. - Bottle chips: PR's unilateral strategy is the same as PTA, the processing fee on the main PR disk is expected to be strong, and lightly buy PR2605 call options [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: May follow oil price fluctuations. Long positions can be protected with put options. Temporarily observe the EB05 - BZ05 spread and watch for opportunities to narrow it [2]. - Styrene: The absolute price follows oil price fluctuations. The strategy is the same as that for pure benzene [2]. Crude Oil Industry - If the situation does not improve or new variables occur, there will be a substantial shortage of supply in the next 1 - 2 weeks, and crude oil futures prices may further approach Dubai spot prices with continuous upward momentum [3]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda Ash: The fundamental supply is strong and demand is weak. The market will be mainly based on fundamental and cost - support logic, with a weak - oscillating trend. Pay attention to the support of SA605 at around 1150 [5]. - Glass: The overall supply - demand is weak. The market will be mainly based on fundamental and cost - support logic, with a weak - oscillating trend. Pay attention to the support of FG605 at around 1030 [5]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic Soda: Although the fundamentals are marginally improving, the overall supply - demand pattern is still weak. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [6]. - PVC: The market is expected to run strongly with oscillations in the short term [6]. Urea Industry - Urea: Under the influence of policies, the short - term market will mainly oscillate with limited corrections [7]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: Import reduction dominates the current market. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low prices, but beware of demand sustainability and policy risks [8]. Polyolefin Industry - Polyolefins: Cost and supply - side drivers are dominant, and the price center is likely to rise. The increase may be stronger than that of other chemicals in the short term [9]. LPG Industry No specific core view is provided in the report, but price and inventory data are presented. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Brent crude oil (May) rose 3.54 to 112.19 dollars/barrel, a 3.3% increase. Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows showed different degrees of decline [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: PX supply is expected to decrease due to plant maintenance, and downstream polyester cost transmission is not smooth. PTA may accumulate inventory in March, and ethylene glycol supply is expected to decline, with inventory likely to decrease [1]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent crude oil (May) rose 3.54 to 108.65 dollars/barrel, a 3.3% increase. Pure benzene and styrene prices and spreads showed various changes [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Pure benzene supply is expected to decrease, and downstream product prices are rising. Styrene supply is expected to remain stable, but demand is weak [2]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent rose 3.54 to 112.19 dollars/barrel, a 3.26% increase; WTI rose 2.68 to 98.23 dollars/barrel, a 2.80% increase [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused substantial production cuts in the Middle - East, and the demand side has a need to replenish inventories [3]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash prices were generally stable, with slight declines in futures prices [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Soda ash supply is stable with a slight increase in production, and demand is weak. Glass supply is decreasing, and demand is also weak [5]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Caustic soda prices rose, and PVC prices were relatively stable [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Caustic soda supply decreased, and demand improved marginally. PVC supply decreased slightly, and demand was average [6]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Urea futures prices fell, and spot prices were slightly loose [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Urea supply decreased slightly due to increased maintenance, and agricultural demand is gradually recovering [7]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures prices fell, and inventory decreased [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic methanol production increased, and import is expected to decrease. Downstream demand is expected to improve [8]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Polyolefin futures prices fell, and the basis weakened [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is expected to decrease due to production cuts, and demand is mainly for rigid needs [9]. LPG Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: LPG futures and spot prices rose, and the basis increased [10]. - **Inventory and开工率**: LPG refinery inventory and port inventory increased, and the upstream refinery开工率 decreased while the downstream PDH开工率 increased [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. Due to the escalation of the Iran situation, the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the significant increase in crude oil prices, there is strong cost support for polyolefins. With the recovery of downstream demand and neutral inventory, it is expected that both LLDPE and PP will show strong trends today [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, providing strong short - term support for polyolefins. In the supply - demand aspect, the downstream开工率 of agricultural films has significantly increased, the demand for spring plowing has started, packaging films are mainly for rigid demand, and the开工 rate of pipes has slightly rebounded. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7420 (+100), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 271, and the premium - discount ratio is - 3.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 59.4 tons (-3.3), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk continues to be strong. The Iran situation disturbs oil prices, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PE will show a strong trend today [4]. - **Leverage and Risks**: The bullish factors are cost support and the Iran situation driving up crude oil prices. The bearish factor is the oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive. The main risk points are large fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation has led to a significant increase in crude oil prices, providing strong short - term support for polyolefins. In the supply - demand aspect, the plastic weaving开工率 has slightly increased, enterprise orders have improved, the bopp开工率 has abnormally decreased, and downstream is resistant to high - price raw materials. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7650 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 147, and the premium - discount ratio is - 1.9%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.5 tons (-8.5), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk continues to be strong. The Iran situation disturbs oil prices, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PP will show a strong trend today [7]. - **Leverage and Risks**: The bullish factors are cost support and the Iran situation driving up crude oil prices. The bearish factor is the oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive. The main risk points are large fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [8]. Spot and Futures Market and Inventory - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery product price is 7420 (+100), the 05 contract price is 7691 (+298), the basis is - 271 (-198), the warehouse receipt is 8709 (0), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 59.4, and the PE social inventory is 67.3 [9]. - **PP**: The spot delivery product price is 7650 (+150), the 05 contract price is 7797 (+339), the basis is - 147 (-189), the warehouse receipt is 18384 (-200), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 65.5, and the PP social inventory is 34.5 [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with the production capacity growth rate ranging from 5.1% to 20.5%. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 and then slightly increased to 32.9% in 2024. The consumption growth rate has fluctuated, with a negative growth rate of - 2.6% in 2021 [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with the production capacity growth rate ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The import dependence has gradually decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then increased to 9.5% in 2024. The consumption growth rate has also fluctuated, with a relatively stable growth from 2019 to 2024 [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of LLDPE and PP. Due to the upgraded situation in the Middle East and the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the external crude oil price has gapped up, which provides significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. Both LLDPE and PP are expected to show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today, with cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalating situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in crude oil prices, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuation. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of work and demand recovery of downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are slow, while the packaging film has low - load rigid - demand operation and is expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector has started production one after another. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7320 (+100), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 73, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 59.4 tons (-3.3), which is neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract's disk continues to be strong. The situation in Iran disturbs the oil price, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PE will show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the situation in Iran driving up crude oil prices [6] - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalating situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in crude oil prices, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuation. In terms of supply and demand, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable. The demand in the north recovers relatively fast but with limited increment. The BOPP resumes work quickly but faces competition and some finished - product inventory pressure. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7500 (+150), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 42, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.6%, which is bullish [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 65.5 tons (-8.5), which is neutral [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract's disk continues to be strong. The situation in Iran disturbs the oil price, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PP will show a wide - range and strong - biased oscillation today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the situation in Iran driving up crude oil prices [8] - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7320, up 100; the price of the 05 contract is 7393, up 38; the basis is - 73, up 62; the warehouse receipt is 8709, down 241; the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 59.4 tons, down 3.3 [9] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7500, up 150; the price of the 05 contract is 7458, down 48; the basis is 42, up 198; the warehouse receipt is 18584, down 2260; the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 65.5 tons, down 8.5 [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, while the import dependence shows a downward trend. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally show an upward trend, and the import dependence also shows a downward trend. The production capacity in 2025E is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are influenced by the escalation of the Middle East Iran situation, with the suspension of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz causing a significant short - term support for polyolefin valuations. The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be broadly volatile and strong today, considering cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. However, there are concerns about oversupply and sensitivity to marginal supply - demand changes [4][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation has disrupted oil prices, providing strong cost support. On the supply - demand side, downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are resuming work slowly, and the packaging film is operating at a low load with rigid demand, expected to recover quickly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector is gradually resuming work. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7220 (+170), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 135, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.8%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 59.4 tons (- 3.3), which is neutral [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to be broadly volatile and strong today [4]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up oil prices; bearish factors are the main logic of oversupply and sensitivity to marginal supply - demand changes [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The Iran situation has disrupted oil prices, providing strong cost support. On the supply - demand side, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable, the demand in the north is recovering quickly but with limited increase, and the BOPP sector is recovering quickly but facing pressure from some finished - product inventories. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7350 (+250), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 156, with a premium - discount ratio of - 2.1%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 65.5 tons (- 8.5), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to be broadly volatile and strong today [7]. - **Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up oil prices; bearish factors are the main logic of oversupply and sensitivity to marginal supply - demand changes [8]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7220, up 170; the price of the 05 contract is 7355, up 155. The warehouse receipt is 8950, down 60; the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 59.4 tons, down 3.3 tons; the PE social inventory is 673 tons, up 76 tons [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 7350, up 250; the price of the 05 contract is 7506, up 283. The warehouse receipt is 20844, down 687; the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 65.5 tons, down 8.5 tons; the PP social inventory is 345 tons, down 47 tons [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity showed an overall upward trend with different growth rates, and the import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity increased steadily, and the import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: March 4, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The macroeconomic situation shows that the official manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalation of the Iran situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in the price of external crude oil, providing significant short - term support for polyolefin valuations. Both LLDPE and PP are expected to show a wide - range volatile and upward trend today [4][7] Summary by Category LLDPE - **Fundamentals**: The macro situation is positive, and the Iran situation provides cost support. Downstream demand in the agricultural film sector is recovering slowly, while the packaging film has low - load rigid demand and is expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 7050 (+330), with an overall positive fundamental situation [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 150, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.1%, which is negative [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 627,000 tons (+259,000), which is negative [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is positive [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is negative [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is strong, with cost support from the Iran situation, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected to show a wide - range volatile and upward trend today [4] - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up crude oil prices. Negative factors are oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand. Main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [6] PP - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro situation is positive, and the Iran situation provides cost support. The rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable, the demand in the north is recovering quickly but with limited growth, and the BOPP industry has a fast resumption of work but faces some finished - product inventory pressure. The current PP delivery product spot price is 7100 (+350), with an overall positive fundamental situation [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 123, and the premium/discount ratio is - 1.7%, which is negative [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 740,000 tons (+349,000), which is negative [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is positive [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is negative [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is strong, with cost support from the Iran situation, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected to show a wide - range volatile and upward trend today [7] - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include cost support and the Iran situation driving up crude oil prices. Negative factors are oversupply and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand. Main risk points are significant crude oil fluctuations and international policy games [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 31.1% in 2023 and then increased slightly to 32.9% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023 and then increased slightly to 9.5% in 2024. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to strengthen today. The escalation of the situation in Iran has disrupted oil prices, providing strong cost support. Although there are issues such as supply exceeding demand and sensitive marginal changes in supply and demand, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and inventory is at a neutral level [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in the price of external crude oil, providing significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. On the supply - demand side, the resumption of work and demand recovery of downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are relatively slow, and the packaging film has low - load rigid demand operation, expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector has started production one after another. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6720 (+220), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 271, and the premium - discount ratio is - 3.9%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.7 tons (+25.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is reduced, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract's disk followed the daily limit, and it is expected to continue to strengthen. The situation in Iran has disrupted oil prices, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PE will show a strong trend today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the rise in crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is that supply exceeds demand, and the marginal changes in supply and demand are sensitive [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, the official manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The situation in the Middle East has led to a jump - up in the price of external crude oil, providing significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. On the supply - demand side, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable. The demand in the north is recovering relatively fast but with limited growth. The BOPP sector has resumed work quickly but faces pressure from some finished - product inventories due to fierce competition. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6750 (+170), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 248, and the premium - discount ratio is - 3.5%, which is bearish [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 74 tons (+34.9), which is bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is increased, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract's disk followed the daily limit, and it is expected to continue to strengthen. The situation in Iran has disrupted oil prices, with strong cost support, neutral inventory, and gradually recovering downstream demand. It is expected that PP will show a strong trend today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the rise in crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The main logic is that supply exceeds demand, and the marginal changes in supply and demand are sensitive [8]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6720, up 220; the price of the 05 contract is 6991, up 394; the basis is - 271, down 174; the warehouse receipt is 9343, down 85; the comprehensive PE factory warehouse is 62.7, and the social inventory is 67.3 [9]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6750, up 170; the price of the 05 contract is 6998, up 387; the basis is - 248, down 217; the warehouse receipt is 21531; the comprehensive PP factory warehouse is 74, and the social inventory is 39.2 [9]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, capacity, production, and net imports have changed. The import dependence has generally decreased from 46.3% in 2018 to 32.9% in 2024. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed, with a consumption growth rate of 1.4% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, capacity, production, and net imports have changed. The import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed, with a consumption growth rate of 8.4% in 2024. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic situation shows that the official manufacturing PMI in February was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East, especially the military offensive between the US and Israel in Iran, has led to the interruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a gap - up opening of the external crude oil market. This situation provides significant short - term support for the valuation of polyolefins. Both LLDPE and PP are expected to have a strong performance today due to cost support and the gradual recovery of downstream demand [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The macro - economic situation is positive, and the Middle East situation supports the valuation of polyolefins. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of work and demand recovery of downstream enterprises in the agricultural film sector are slow, while the packaging film has low - load rigid demand and is expected to recover rapidly around the Lantern Festival. The pipe sector is gradually starting up. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6500 (-100), and the overall fundamentals are positive [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 97, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.5%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 62.7 tons (+25.9), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to gap up and fluctuate. The Iranian situation disturbs oil prices, providing strong cost support. With neutral inventory and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, LLDPE is expected to have a strong performance today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the rise of crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation are positive factors. The main bearish logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation is positive, and the Middle East situation supports the valuation of polyolefins. In terms of supply and demand, the rigid demand for plastic weaving is stable, the demand in the north recovers relatively fast but with limited increment, and the BOPP sector resumes work quickly but faces some finished - product inventory pressure. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6580 (-100), and the overall fundamentals are positive [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 31, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.5%, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 74 tons (+34.9), which is neutral [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [7]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the position turns short, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to gap up and fluctuate. The Iranian situation disturbs oil prices, providing strong cost support. With neutral inventory and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, PP is expected to have a strong performance today [7]. - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and the rise of crude oil prices driven by the Iranian situation are positive factors. The main bearish logic is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal change is sensitive [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally show an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreases. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also show an upward trend, and the import dependence gradually decreases. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to be volatile today. The geopolitical situation is disturbing oil prices, providing strong cost support, but downstream demand has not recovered yet [4][7] - The main logic for both LLDPE and PP is oversupply, and the supply - demand marginal changes are sensitive. The main risk points are significant oil price fluctuations and international policy games [6][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. The escalation of the Middle East US - Iran situation has led to rising oil prices, providing cost support for polyolefins. Trump's new import tariff policy may affect product exports. Domestically, possible stimulus policies during the Two Sessions in March and Sino - US negotiations before Trump's visit may increase market demand expectations. In terms of supply and demand, most agricultural film enterprises have not resumed work, packaging film enterprises are gradually resuming work at a low load, and pipe production is still restricted by weather. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6640 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The LLDPE 2605 contract basis is - 180, with a premium - discount ratio of - 2.6%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 36.7 tons (-0), which is bullish [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is neutral [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk is volatile, and it is expected to rebound at the opening. Due to geopolitical factors disturbing oil prices, cost support is strong, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand has not recovered. It is expected that PE will show a volatile trend today [4] - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and rising oil prices due to geopolitical premiums; bearish factor is weak downstream demand [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. Oil price increases support polyolefin costs. Trump's new tariff policy may affect exports. Domestically, relevant policies may increase demand expectations. In terms of supply and demand, the resumption of work in the plastic weaving industry is slow, while the bopp industry has a relatively fast resumption of work but faces some finished - product inventory pressure. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6680 (+30), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The PP 2605 contract basis is - 66, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.0%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 39.1 tons (-0), which is bullish [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk is volatile, and it is expected to rebound at the opening. Geopolitical factors disturb oil prices, providing strong cost support, inventory is neutral, and downstream demand has not recovered. It is expected that PP will show a volatile trend today [7] - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include cost support and rising oil prices due to geopolitical premiums; bearish factor is weak downstream demand [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also showed an upward trend, and the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Date: February 13, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are neutral, with cost support from OPEC's suspension of production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, but downstream demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival [4][7] - It is expected that the PE and PP markets will fluctuate today [4][7] Summary by Directory LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Crude oil is in a volatile state, and polyolefins follow the large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, most agricultural film and packaging film enterprises have stopped work, with few orders. The current LLDPE delivery spot price is 6600 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is -134, and the premium/discount ratio is -2.0%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 36.7 tons (down 3.6 tons), which is bullish [4] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, with a neutral situation [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract fluctuates. With cost support and neutral industrial inventory, but downstream enterprises stopping work near the Spring Festival, it is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand [6] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply and demand is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Crude oil is in a volatile state, and polyolefins follow the large fluctuations. Near the Spring Festival, the overall start of plastic weaving has significantly declined, and the demand for pipes is also affected by the Spring Festival shutdown. The current PP delivery spot price is 6650 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 2, and the premium/discount ratio is 0.0%, which is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 39.1 tons (down 2.5 tons), which is bullish [7] - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, with a neutral situation [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and the long position is increasing, which is bullish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract fluctuates. With cost support and neutral industrial inventory, but downstream enterprises stopping work near the Spring Festival, it is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [8] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand [8] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply and demand is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6600 (unchanged), the 05 contract price is 6734 (down 53), the basis is -134 (up 53), the warehouse receipt is 9428 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 36.7 tons (down 3.6 tons), and the PE social inventory is 50.8 tons (up 2.3 tons) [9] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6650 (unchanged), the 05 contract price is 6648 (down 45), the basis is 2 (up 45), the warehouse receipt is 18679 (up 1385), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 39.1 tons (down 2.5 tons), and the PP social inventory is 27.1 tons (up 0.5 tons) [9] Supply and Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4319.5 [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rate. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 4906 [16]