Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran dominated the rise and fall of crude oil prices. After the geopolitical conflict cooled down, the trading of polyolefins returned to the fundamental logic. The profit of oil - based and PDH - based production was restored. In June, the production capacity of polyolefins faced great pressure, but the pressure on polyethylene production capacity in the second half of the year was greatly relieved, while PP continued to be under pressure. It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the downstream operating rate fluctuated at a low level. The market was waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase, and the crude oil price fluctuated at a low level. The United States imposed a 40% tariff on Vietnamese re - exports, which might hinder China's PP exports. It was expected that the LLDPE - PP price spread would continue to fluctuate and strengthen from July [2][16]. - The recommended strategy was to buy the LLDPE - PP price spread at low levels [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Valuation: The market was waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's decision on production increase, and crude oil prices fluctuated at a low level. The overall profit of polyolefins decreased, with upstream inventory reduction and mid - stream trader inventory accumulation [16]. - Cost: WTI crude oil rose 6.37% this month, Brent crude oil rose 5.30%, coal price fell - 1.69%, methanol rose 7.64%, ethylene rose 14.46%, propylene rose 3.83%, and propane fell - 4.20%. The oil price rose and then fell, having a significant impact on the cost side, and the cost side's influence on the trading logic of the futures market increased this month [16]. - Supply: The PE capacity utilization rate was 78.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.81%, a year - on - year increase of 0.72%, and an increase of 0.42% compared with the five - year average. The PP capacity utilization rate was 77.79%, a month - on - month increase of 1.05%, a year - on - year increase of 6.37%, and a decrease of - 14.75% compared with the five - year average. The production pressure in the second quarter was large, with production capacity put into operation in June and no new capacity in July [16]. - Import and Export: In May, domestic PE imports were 1.0682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 15.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.84%. PP imports were 167,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 12.60% and a year - on - year decrease of - 12.60%. Exports decreased in the off - peak season. In May, PE exports were 105,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.67% and a year - on - year increase of 40.53%. PP exports were 276,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.33% and a year - on - year increase of 35.89%. The increase of the Vietnamese re - export tariff to the United States to 40% might hinder China's PP exports [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate of PE was 38%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.91% and a year - on - year decrease of - 7.20%. The downstream operating rate of PP was 48.80%, a month - on - month decrease of - 2.42% and a year - on - year decrease of - 1.63%. It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the overall operating rate was lower than that of the previous year [16]. - Inventory: PE production enterprises' inventory was 438,400 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 15.32% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 5.46%. PE traders' inventory was 61,400 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 5.27% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 7.19%. PP production enterprises' inventory was 570,100 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 5.78% and a year - on - year inventory increase of 10.70%. PP traders' inventory was 149,700 tons, with a month - on - month inventory increase of 1.42% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 1.12%. PP port inventory was 65,300 tons, with a month - on - month inventory reduction of - 1.66% and a year - on - year inventory reduction of - 4.95% [16]. - Next Month's Forecast: The reference fluctuation range for polyethylene (L2509) was (7000 - 7300), and for polypropylene (PP2509) was (6900 - 7200) [16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Buy the LLDPE - PP price spread at low levels [16]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts were provided to show the term structure, main contract price, basis, spread, trading volume, open interest, registered warehouse receipts, and price differences of LLDPE and PP, as well as the price differences between LLDPE and PP, and the import and export volume of PE and PP [32][46][66][68]. 3. Cost Side - The cost side was affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices. The prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane all changed. The profitability of different production methods of PE and PP, such as oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and PDH - based, was also analyzed. Additionally, the price, supply, demand, inventory, and import and export situation of LPG were studied [16][77][103]. 4. Polyethylene Supply Side - The proportion of raw materials for PE production was presented. The production capacity, production capacity utilization rate, and production capacity expansion plan of PE were also analyzed. In 2025, 3.53 million tons of PE production capacity had been put into operation, and 1.5 million tons were yet to be put into operation [138][144]. 5. Polyethylene Inventory & Import and Export - The inventory situation of PE production enterprises and traders was analyzed, including month - on - month and year - on - year changes. The import and export volume of PE was also provided, along with the predicted import volume in June [16][17]. 6. Polyethylene Demand Side - It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the downstream operating rate of PE was low, with a month - on - month and year - on - year decline. It was expected that the downstream operating rate in July would continue to decline seasonally [16][17]. 7. Polypropylene Supply Side - The production capacity utilization rate of PP was analyzed. In the second quarter, the production pressure was large, and there was no new production capacity in July [16]. 8. Polypropylene Inventory & Import and Export - The inventory situation of PP production enterprises, traders, and ports was analyzed, including month - on - month and year - on - year changes. The export volume of PP was provided, and it was predicted that the export volume in June would be about 230,000 tons. The increase of the Vietnamese re - export tariff to the United States to 40% might hinder China's PP exports [16][17]. 9. Polypropylene Demand Side - It was the seasonal off - peak season, and the downstream operating rate of PP was low, with a month - on - month and year - on - year decline. It was expected that the downstream operating rate in July would continue to decline seasonally [16][17].