Group 1 - Since late July, coking coal futures prices have maintained a high-level fluctuation pattern due to improved long-term fundamentals in the coal market and a 90-day extension of tariff exemptions between China and the U.S., which alleviated export pressures [1] - The sixth round of price increases for coking coal was implemented on August 14, with prices at 1520 RMB/ton for wet quenching coke and 1460 RMB/ton for ex-factory prices, leading to improved profitability for most coking enterprises [2] - As of August 15, the total inventory of coking coal decreased to 8.8742 million tons, reflecting a continuous trend of inventory reduction across various segments of the industry [3] Group 2 - Current policies, particularly the "anti-involution" policy, are expected to support coking coal prices by suppressing disorderly competition and enhancing supply quality, contributing to a generally optimistic market outlook [4] - Despite a slight increase in supply, demand remains stable, with the average daily production of coking coal and steel maintaining resilience, indicating a balanced supply-demand dynamic [3][4] - The overall macroeconomic environment is optimistic, which, combined with stable supply and demand fundamentals, is expected to drive coking coal futures to continue high-level operations [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings 1.1 Macro Finance - Index Futures: Bullish on dips [1][6] - Treasury Bonds: Sideways [1][6] 1.2 Black Building Materials - Rebar: Hold off for now [1][8] - Iron Ore: Sideways [1][8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Sideways [1][10] 1.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Range trading or hold off [1][13] - Aluminum: Buy on dips after pullbacks [1][15] - Nickel: Hold off or short on rallies [1][17] - Tin: Range trading [1][17] - Gold: Range trading [1][18] - Silver: Range trading [1][18] 1.4 Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Sideways [1][20] - Soda Ash: Short 09 and long 05 arbitrage [1] - Caustic Soda: Sideways [1][22] - Styrene: Sideways [1][24] - Rubber: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][27] - Urea: Sideways [1][31] - Methanol: Sideways [1][32] - Polyolefins: Wide - range sideways [1][33] 1.5 Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][37] - Apples: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][38] - Jujubes: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][38] 1.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Hogs: Bearish on rallies [1][40] - Eggs: Bearish on rallies [1][42] - Corn: Wide - range sideways [1][43] - Soybean Meal: Range - bound [1][46] - Oils and Fats: Sideways with a bullish bias [1][47] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall futures market shows a diversified trend, with different investment strategies recommended for various sectors based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and policy impacts. For example, in the macro - finance sector, the index futures are expected to rise in the medium - term due to policy support and capital inflows, while the treasury bonds are constrained by the strong performance of the equity market. In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper is likely to maintain a high - level sideways trend due to a combination of factors such as economic data and inventory levels [6][13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The US inflation data has affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The index has strengthened due to policy support, capital inflows, and event catalysts. After reaching a short - term high, it may consolidate, but the medium - term upward trend remains. Investors with positions can hold or lock in profits on pullbacks, while those without positions can consider buying on dips [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently constrained by the strong performance of risk assets. Although the equity market has ended its eight - day winning streak, the adjustment is limited, and the current equity - dominant pattern may continue to suppress the bond market in the short term. Attention should be paid to the upcoming economic data to see if it can support the bond market [6]. 3.2 Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price has continued to decline. The cost is at a neutral level, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market should pay attention to the implementation of crude - steel production limits and the resumption of coking - coal production. It is expected to remain sideways in the short term, and investors can hold off or engage in short - term trading [8][9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore futures price has been weak. The supply and demand are in a state of weak balance. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the iron - ore price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias. It can be considered as a long leg when shorting other black - building materials [8][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking - coal market has limited supply growth and stable demand, with no prominent supply - demand contradictions. The coke market is in a tight supply - demand pattern, but the weak steel sales and high iron - water production are in a game. Attention should be paid to factors such as production - limit policies, iron - water production changes, and raw - material price fluctuations [11]. 3.3 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Chinese economic data is positive, and the Fed's possible interest - rate cut has supported the copper price. However, the domestic copper industry is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak. The inventory is expected to accumulate, but the decline in the copper price is limited. It is expected to remain sideways in the short term, with the Shanghai copper running in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing, while the downstream demand is affected by the off - season. The inventory has increased. Although there are still some positive factors such as interest - rate cut expectations, the short - term is expected to be sideways. Investors can consider buying on dips in August [15]. - **Nickel**: In the medium - to - long term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. The price of nickel ore is falling slowly, and the stainless - steel price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [17]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined - tin production has increased, and the supply of tin ore is gradually improving. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the Shanghai tin 09 contract running in the range of 255,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Gold and Silver**: The new US tariffs and weak employment data have increased the market's interest - rate cut expectations, and the precious - metal prices have rebounded. However, the Fed's hawkish remarks have also put pressure on the prices. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will have support at the bottom and are recommended for range trading [18][19]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low - profit level, the supply is high, and the demand is affected by the real - estate market and export factors. The inventory is slightly lower than last year, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to be sideways in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, the demand has rigid support but the growth rate is slowing down. The 09 contract is expected to be sideways in the range of 2,400 - 2,550 yuan/ton, and investors can consider buying on dips for the peak - season contracts [22][23]. - **Styrene**: The cost is affected by factors such as oil prices and pure - benzene production. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The macro - environment is improving slightly. It is expected to be sideways, with the price focusing on the range of 7,100 - 7,400 yuan/ton [24][26]. - **Rubber**: After a continuous rise, the rubber price has slightly corrected, but the cost support remains strong, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias, focusing on the range of 15,200 - 15,600 yuan/ton [27][28]. - **Urea**: The supply has decreased slightly, the agricultural demand is sporadic, and the compound - fertilizer demand is increasing. The price is expected to be range - bound, with support at 1,700 - 1,730 yuan/ton and resistance at 1,800 - 1,830 yuan/ton [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply has decreased slightly, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory in the port area has increased rapidly. The methanol price is expected to be sideways with a bearish bias [32][33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply has tightened slightly, the downstream demand has a replenishment need, but the recovery rate of the operating rate is slower than the same period. The polyolefin price is expected to be sideways in the short term, with the L2509 contract focusing on the range of 7,200 - 7,500 yuan/ton and the PP2509 contract focusing on the range of 6,900 - 7,200 yuan/ton [33][34]. - **Soda Ash**: The impact of the relevant policies on production is limited. The supply is increasing, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The 09 contract is expected to face pressure, and it is recommended to short the 09 contract [36]. 3.5 Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has improved. With the approaching of the peak season and the tight spot market, the cotton price is expected to be sideways with a bullish bias [37]. - **Apples**: The early - maturing apples in the western region have limited trading, and the inventory apples in the Shandong region have slow sales. The price of early - maturing apples is weak, and the inventory apples are stable. With the upcoming supply increase of early - maturing paper - bag Gala apples, attention should be paid to the quality and price trends. The apple price is expected to remain high and sideways [38]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube - fruit is in the swelling period, and the price in the sales area has increased. The jujube price is expected to rise sideways in the near future [38]. 3.6 Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: In the short term, the supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The pig price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, the price may rebound due to improved consumption, but the rebound height is limited. In the long term, the supply will continue to increase, and the price will be under pressure. The 09 contract can be observed, and investors can consider shorting the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is at a low level, and the demand may increase during the Mid - Autumn Festival and school - opening periods. However, the supply is sufficient, and the high - supply situation in the long term is difficult to reverse. It is recommended to short on rallies for the main 10 contract, and consider going long on dips for the 12 and 01 contracts if the culling process accelerates [42]. - **Corn**: The spot price fluctuates slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to be range - bound between 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to policies and substitute products [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean supply has tightened, and the price has a rising trend, but the increase is limited. The domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories are accumulating, and the spot - price increase is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the price may be strong. Investors can hold long positions in the M2511 and M2601 contracts and reduce positions on rallies [46][48]. - **Oils and Fats**: The short - term prices of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils are expected to be sideways with a bullish bias. The 01 contracts of these oils have support and resistance levels, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed - oil 11 - 01 reverse arbitrage [47][55].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

01 螺纹：短线交易 02 03 铁矿：震荡偏强 双焦：中性观望 目 录 黑色：维持震荡格局 区间交易为主 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-8-11 【产业服务总部 | 黑色产业中心】 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 螺纹钢：短线交易 01 01 投资策略：维持震荡格局 区间交易为主 p 主要观点 上周煤矿相关消息较多，部分矿山重启276工作日制度，双焦期货价格大幅上涨，不过原料未能带动钢价上行，螺 纹钢期、现货价格均窄幅震荡。基本面方面，根据钢联统计口径，最近一期螺纹钢表需环比增加7.38万吨，产量增加 10.12万吨，库存增加10.39万吨，需求淡季矛盾积累尚不明显，供需保持相对均衡，不过上周累库速度略有加快。 后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格低于电炉平电成本、高于电炉谷电成本，静态估值中性；驱动方面，宏观端， 过度乐观预期有所降温，关注中美关税政策变化（8月12日是中美双方达成暂停关税协议的最后期限），产业端，现实 供需均衡，关注粗钢限产执行情况、焦煤复产进度，预计短期保持震荡格局。 p 交易策略 短线交易，RB2510关 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and government bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore and coking coal are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is suitable for range trading or observation, aluminum is recommended to buy on dips, nickel is suggested to observe or short on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are suitable for range trading [1][11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soda ash is recommended for a short - 09 and long - 05 arbitrage [1][21]. - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to have a fluctuating adjustment, apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][36]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies, corn is expected to have range fluctuations, soybean meal is expected to have limited increases, and oils are at a high - level with an increasing risk of correction [1][40]. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events, resulting in different trends for different varieties. For example, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's economic data, and trade policies all have an impact on the market [6][11]. - Most varieties are in a state of fluctuating operation, and investors should choose appropriate investment strategies according to the characteristics of each variety, such as range trading, short - long arbitrage, and buying on dips [1]. Summaries by Catalog Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and China's economic data, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Government Bonds**: In the short term, the market lacks a clear trend, and the yield is at a neutral level, so it is expected to fluctuate [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season, and the short - term is expected to remain volatile. Investors can observe or conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Although the supply is increasing, considering the possible macro - benefits in the fourth quarter, the iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly and can be used as a long - leg in the short - other - black - varieties strategy [8][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal supply is tight, and the coke market has mixed factors. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by factors such as China's economic improvement and low inventory, but facing the pressure of inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is decreasing, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price falls [12][14]. - **Nickel**: With an oversupply pattern in the medium - long term, it is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the demand is in the off - season. It is suitable for range trading in the range of 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Fed's policies and trade policies, they are expected to fluctuate and are suitable for range trading [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply and uncertain export sustainability, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4900 - 5100 [21][23]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high supply and stable demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental benefits and a warm macro - environment, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [25][26]. - **Rubber**: With limited cost and supply support and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15200 - 15600 [27][28]. - **Urea**: With supply and demand in a balanced state, it is suitable for range operation in the range of 1700 - 1830 [30]. - **Methanol**: With supply and demand stabilizing, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31][32]. - **Polyolefins**: With high supply pressure and low - season demand, they are expected to fluctuate in the range of L2509: 7200 - 7500 and PP2509: 6900 - 7200 [32][33]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended for a short - 09 and long - 05 arbitrage due to the weak spot market and expected inventory accumulation [33][35]. Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand and domestic production expectations, they are expected to have a fluctuating adjustment [36][37]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With slow sales and normal new - fruit growth, they are expected to fluctuate weakly [37][39]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. Different contracts have different trends, and investors can consider arbitrage strategies [40][42]. - **Eggs**: With high supply and uncertain demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [42][44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long term, there are supply gaps, and different contracts have different investment strategies [46][47]. - **Oils**: With expected negative reports and high inventory, there is an increasing risk of correction, but there are also some supporting factors. Different varieties have different trends, and investors can consider arbitrage strategies [48][55].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [6][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - buy on dips; Nickel - wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [6][12][14] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuate [23][25][27] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apple - fluctuate weakly; Jujube - fluctuate weakly [38] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pig - short on rallies; Egg - short on rallies; Corn - range fluctuate; Soybean meal - limited upside; Oils - limited rebound [41][44][45] Core Views - The global market shows mixed performance with different indexes having various trends. In the futures market, different products are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes, resulting in different expected price movements [2][6] - In the macro - financial sector, the stock index may fluctuate due to the combination of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of the domestic market. The 10 - year treasury bond may fluctuate around 1.70% [6] - In the black building materials sector, the supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced, and it may enter a short - term fluctuating pattern. Iron ore may fluctuate strongly, and coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate due to supply and demand factors [7][8][10] - In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper may fluctuate weakly at a high level. Aluminum may be bought on dips considering its supply - demand and inventory situation. Nickel may fluctuate, and tin and precious metals may fluctuate within a certain range [12][14][18] - In the energy and chemicals sector, products like PVC, caustic soda, and styrene may fluctuate due to cost, supply - demand, and macro - factors. Soda ash is recommended for a short 09 and long 05 arbitrage [23][25][27] - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn may fluctuate and adjust. Apple and jujube may fluctuate weakly due to supply - demand in the spot market [38] - In the agricultural and livestock sector, pigs and eggs may be shorted on rallies. Corn may fluctuate within a range, soybean meal may have limited upside, and oils may have a limited rebound [41][44][45] Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Index Futures: Fluctuate. Influenced by Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic market resilience, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover [6] - Treasury Bonds: Fluctuate. The 10 - year treasury bond may use 1.70% as the central position of the operating range, considering the current market situation and upcoming events [6] Black Building Materials - Rebar: Fluctuate. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season, and it may enter a short - term fluctuating pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions and the resumption progress of coking coal [7][8] - Iron Ore: Fluctuate. The market starts to trade events such as military parade, crude steel production restrictions, and blast furnace maintenance. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, it may fluctuate strongly [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Fluctuate. For coking coal, the supply is disturbed, and the demand is cautious. For coke, the supply and demand are in a balanced state with multiple factors affecting the market [10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Fluctuate weakly at a high level. Affected by macro - data, supply - demand in the industry, and tariff policies, it may continue to fluctuate weakly [12][13] - Aluminum: Fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite and alumina, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum, and the demand and inventory situation all affect the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [14][15][16] - Nickel: Fluctuate. The nickel market has an oversupply pattern, and the price may fluctuate within a certain range [18] - Tin: Fluctuate. The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, and it is recommended for range trading [20] - Gold and Silver: Fluctuate. Affected by US economic data, trade policies, and Fed's interest - rate policies, they are expected to fluctuate with support at the bottom [20][22] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Fluctuate. High supply, uncertain export sustainability, and macro - factors may lead to short - term fluctuations [23][24] - Soda Ash: Short 09 and long 05 arbitrage. The spot market is weak, and the supply is increasing, so this arbitrage strategy is recommended [35][36][37] - Caustic Soda: Fluctuate. The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but a slowing growth rate. It may fluctuate within a certain range [25][26] - Styrene: Fluctuate. The cost, supply - demand, and macro - factors affect the price, and it may fluctuate within a certain range [27][29] - Rubber: Fluctuate. The cost and supply support are limited, and the demand is weak, so it may fluctuate slightly [30][31] - Urea: Fluctuate. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing, so the price may fluctuate within a certain range [32][33] - Methanol: Fluctuate. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. It may fluctuate due to the overall industrial product price fluctuations [33] - Polyolefins: Fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It may fluctuate within a certain range [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Fluctuate and adjust. The global cotton supply and demand situation and the domestic market situation may lead to price fluctuations [38] - Apple: Fluctuate weakly. The slow sales of apples in the spot market and the normal growth of new fruits may lead to price pressure [38][39] - Jujube: Fluctuate weakly. The new - season situation in the production area and the supply - demand in the sales area may lead to price fluctuations [39] Agricultural and Livestock - Pig: Short on rallies. The short - term supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. Different contracts have different price trends and trading strategies [41][43] - Egg: Short on rallies. The current supply and demand situation and the long - term supply trend affect the price, and different contracts have different trading strategies [44][45] - Corn: Range fluctuate. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the long - term cost is decreasing. It may fluctuate within a certain range [45][46] - Soybean Meal: Limited upside. The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply may have a gap. Different contracts have different trading strategies [47][48] - Oils: Limited rebound. The supply - demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil is affected by multiple factors, and the price may have a limited rebound [49][50][54]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the iron ore industry is to expect the market to be volatile with a slight upward bias [2][4][62] Core View of the Report - In July, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell. After the end - of - month meeting, the market started to price in events such as the military parade, crude steel production cuts, and blast furnace maintenance, leading to an expected decline in hot metal demand. However, considering the potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in hot metal output will not be significant. Under the positive feedback logic, it is favorable for iron ore and negative for coal at the raw material end. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will operate with a slight upward bias and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black commodities. Attention should be paid to the 770 support level for the 09 contract [3][61] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review: Soaring and Then Falling, Basis Stabilizing 1.1 Market Review: High - level Decline and Adjustment - Last Friday, the discounted futures prices of various grades of iron ore at Qingdao Port were: Super Special Powder at 846 yuan/ton (- 14), PB Powder at 813 yuan/ton (- 15), Newman Powder at 801 yuan/ton (- 17), and Carajas Powder at 812 yuan/ton (- 13). The dry - basis tax - included price of Tangshan 66% iron concentrate was 930 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 10. The Platts 62% price index was 99.30 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decrease of 3.3, and the monthly average was 99.30 US dollars/ton. The 09 contract of iron ore closed at 783 yuan/ton last Friday, with a weekly decrease of 19.5 [8] 1.2 Market Review: Strength of Medium - and High - grade Ores - On August 1st, the contract screw - to - ore ratio was 4.09, a decrease of 0.09 from the previous period. The prices of Super Special Powder, PB Powder, and Carajas Powder were 643, 768, and 870 yuan/wet ton respectively. The basis of the PB Powder 09 contract was 30 yuan/ton last Friday, a weekly increase of 4. The 05 - 09 spread was 26 yuan/ton last Friday, a weekly decrease of 4 [17][22] 2. Supply - Demand Pattern: Increased Imports, Profitable Steel Mills 2.1 Import Volume: Significant Increase - In June, China's total imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 10,594.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 833.49. The cumulative imports were 59,255.10 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. Specifically, sintering ore powder imports were 7,504.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 809.70; lump ore imports were 1,787.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 120.65; pellet imports were 116.91 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 92.16; and iron concentrate imports were 1,186.72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 [24][28] 2.2 Domestic Supply: Output Decline - In June, the cumulative output of domestic raw ore was 50,859.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. As of August 1st, the daily average output of iron concentrate was 46.30 million tons, a decrease of 1.73 from the previous period. The iron concentrate inventory of mining enterprises was 76.80 million tons, a decrease of 1.95 from the previous period [30][31][32] 2.3 Foreign Supply: Stronger Shipments from Brazil - As of July 25th, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,677.8 million tons, an increase of 198.8 from the previous period. Australian shipments were 1,793.5 million tons, an increase of 222.3, while Brazilian shipments were 884.3 million tons, a decrease of 23.5. As of August 1st, the sea freight from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.37 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.05, and from Brazil to Qingdao was 24.01 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.53 [42] 2.4 Ports: Decline in Both Arrival and Out - port Volumes - On July 25th, the arrival volume at 45 major domestic ports was 2,240.5 million tons, a decrease of 130.7 from the previous period. Last week, the number of ships at berth in 47 ports was 96, a decrease of 6. The daily average out - port volume at 45 major domestic ports last week was 302.71 million tons, a decrease of 12.44 [46] 2.5 Inventory: Steel Mills Restocking - Last week, the iron ore inventory at 45 major domestic ports was 13,657.9 million tons, a weekly decrease of 132.48. Among them, coarse powder inventory was 11,017.53 (- 182.86), lump ore inventory was 1,738.26 (+ 34.76), pellet inventory was 386.14 (- 11.15), and iron concentrate inventory was 1,080.08 (- 14.42). Last Friday, the imported iron ore inventory of 247 domestic steel mills was 9,012.09 million tons, a weekly increase of 126.87, and the corresponding daily average iron ore consumption last week was 299.46 million tons/day (- 1.64). The total inventory of the two was 24,669.99 million tons, a decrease of 5.61 [47] 2.6 Steel Enterprises' Demand: Decline in Hot Metal Output - Last week, the profitability rate of 247 domestic steel enterprises was 65.37%, an increase of 1.73%. The daily average hot metal output of 247 domestic steel enterprises last week was 240.71 million tons, a decrease of 1.52. The market price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Jiangyin was 2,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 [56] 3. Investment Strategy: Affected by Production Cuts, Relatively Strong 3.1 Investment Strategy: Volatile Operation - The iron ore futures market in July first rose and then fell. After the end - of - month meeting, the market started to price in events such as the military parade, crude steel production cuts, and blast furnace maintenance, leading to an expected decline in hot metal demand. Considering the potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in hot metal output will not be significant. Under the positive feedback logic, it is favorable for iron ore and negative for coal at the raw material end. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will operate with a slight upward bias and can be considered as a long - leg position when shorting other black commodities. Attention should be paid to the 770 support level for the 09 contract [61]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of rebar, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. For rebar, pay attention to policies from the Politburo meeting and the implementation of crude steel production restrictions. For iron ore, consider the impact of Sino - US trade relations and domestic industrial policies. For coking coal, focus on the influence of environmental protection, accidents, and market demand. For coke, be aware of the impact of steel market conditions, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][3]. 3. Summary by Categories Rebar - On Monday, the rebar futures price rose significantly. The spot price in Hangzhou was 3370 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous day. The basis of the 10 - contract was 146 (+3). The recent apparent demand decreased by 15.33 tons, production decreased by 7.60 tons, and inventory increased by 2.89 tons. The futures price has risen to the cost level of valley - electricity for electric furnaces, with static valuation restored to a neutral level. It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and focus on the opportunity of going long on the spot and short on the futures [1]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the iron ore futures price rose significantly. The PB powder price at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/wet ton (+18), the Platts 62% index was 100.20 dollars/ton (-0.05), and the monthly average was 97.06 dollars/ton. The total shipment of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2479 tons, a decrease of 19.3 tons. The total inventory of 45 ports and 247 steel mills was 22607.37 tons, a decrease of 138.16 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel enterprises was 242.44 tons, an increase of 2.63 tons. The supply has no obvious change, while the demand is relatively strong. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Coking Coal - The supply is affected by environmental protection policies and accidents, with limited incremental supply and blocked capacity release. The Mongolian port customs clearance is gradually recovering, and the port trading atmosphere is active. The demand is strong due to positive macro news and high purchasing enthusiasm from steel and coking enterprises. The coking coal market is expected to continue to operate strongly in the short - term [3]. Coke - The supply is contracting, with coking enterprises maintaining normal production and low inventory. The demand shows a multi - dimensional differentiation. The cost of raw coal is rising, and some coking enterprises plan to start the second price increase. The coke market is expected to operate strongly in the short - term, but beware of the impact of the weak steel market [3]. Industry News - From July 19th to 20th, steel enterprises at the 10th Shaanxi - Shanxi - Sichuan - Gansu Steel Enterprise Summit Forum agreed to "strengthen self - discipline and control production". - The July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 5 - year LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. - Anhui Province issued access standards for the mining and dressing of 14 minerals, including iron ore. - From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, new orders decreased by 18.2% year - on - year, and the order backlog at the end of June increased by 36.7% year - on - year. - In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 48418 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [5].

Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "sideways", and for coking coal is also "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoints - The end of the Iran-Israel conflict and the potential for a further Sino-US trade agreement in the near future are releasing external disturbance risks. Coking coal will return to its own logic. The short - term recommendation is to hold a light long position in J09 and gradually increase the position [5] - For coking coal, the spot price is stabilizing, and trading volume is gradually picking up. The start - up of mines and coal washing plants is increasing. For coke, the fourth round of spot price cuts has been implemented, and there is little room for further cuts. With the strengthening of coking coal, the cost support is gradually transmitted to coke, and the supply - demand margin of coke is improving [5] Summary by Directory Coking Coal Related Information - On June 26, White House officials stated that the US and China had reached an understanding on how to speed up the transportation of rare earths to the US [1] Spot and Futures - The price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 804.5 yuan/ton (+20.5), the basis is 83.5 yuan/ton (-20.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 43 yuan/ton (+0.5) [1] Supply and Demand - The resumption of production at the mine end and the reduction of the capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises. The starting rate of 523 mines is reported at 84.49% (+0.78), the starting rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 61.34% (+3.2), and the productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.42% (-0.54) [2] Inventory - Upstream inventory accumulates, and downstream inventory decreases. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 499.15 million tons (+13.11), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 237.39 million tons (-14.08), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 774.66 million tons (+0.68), the inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 665.65 million tons (-3.88), and the port inventory is 303.31 million tons (-8.71) [2] Coke Spot and Futures - The fourth round of spot price cuts has been implemented. The price of quasi - first - class coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1220 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1387.5 yuan/ton (+36), the basis is - 76 yuan/ton (-36), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 40.5 yuan/ton (+7.5) [3] Supply and Demand - Supply decreases, and demand slightly rebounds. The productivity of 230 independent coking enterprises is reported at 73.42% (-0.54), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.79% (+0.21), and the daily average pig iron output is 242.18 million tons (+0.57) [3] Inventory - Both upstream and downstream continue to reduce inventory, and the port inventory remains flat. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 80.93 million tons (-6.38), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 634.2 million tons (-8.64), and the port inventory is 203.11 million tons (+0.02) [3] Strategy Suggestion - The end of the Iran - Israel conflict and the potential for a Sino - US trade agreement in the near future are releasing external risks. Coking coal has shown a relatively strong trend. The short - term suggestion is to hold a light long position in J09 and gradually increase the position. In addition to the capital side, on the fundamental side, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is any active production reduction behavior at the mine end [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for coke is "oscillation", and for coking coal is also "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel, geopolitical disturbances are released. Coking coal will return to its own logic. Although it followed the decline of crude oil, the bulls' resistance is strong. For coke, the fifth round of price cut has been implemented, and there is little room for further cuts, with a price increase expected in July. It is recommended to hold a small - amount long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Spot and Futures Market - The spot price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal is 868 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is 784 yuan/ton (down 23 yuan), the basis is 104 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 43.5 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan) [2] 3.1.2 Supply and Demand - Mine and coal washery production is increasing. The operating rate of 523 mines is 84.49% (up 0.78%), and that of 110 coal washeries is 61.34% (up 3.2%). The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (down 0.54%) [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is increasing, and downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is 499.15 million tons (up 13.11 million tons), that of coal washeries is 237.39 million tons (down 14.08 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 774.66 million tons (up 0.68 million tons), that of 230 coking enterprises is 665.65 million tons (down 3.88 million tons), and port inventory is 303.31 million tons (down 8.71 million tons) [2] 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Spot and Futures Market - The fourth round of spot price cut has been implemented. The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Tianjin Port is 1220 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan), the active contract is 1351.5 yuan/ton (down 33.5 yuan), the basis is - 40 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 48 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [3] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply is decreasing, and demand is slightly increasing. The production rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.42% (down 0.54%), the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.79% (up 0.21%), and the daily average pig iron output is 2.4218 million tons (up 0.57 million tons) [3] 3.2.3 Inventory - Both upstream and downstream inventories are decreasing, and port inventory is flat. The inventory of 230 coking enterprises is 80.93 million tons (down 6.38 million tons), that of 247 steel mills is 634.2 million tons (down 8.64 million tons), and port inventory is 203.11 million tons (up 0.02 million tons) [3] 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The cease - fire agreement between Iran and Israel led to a sharp decline in crude oil. Domestically, the social financing performance in May was weak, and the real - estate policy has been relaxed, but investors' pessimistic attitude towards real estate is hard to reverse in the short term. The coking coal supply is increasing, and the inventory inflection point may take time. For coke, the cost and demand are decisive factors. It is recommended to hold a small - amount long position in J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [4][5]