Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of simultaneous declines in both the stock and bond markets is primarily attributed to the bond market absorbing some of the redemption pressure and deleveraging demands caused by the stock market's pullback, with speculative funds in TL contracts further amplifying this volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market's motivation to go long has not increased due to the stock market's pullback, as the current environment is characterized by low odds and ongoing concerns about potential new fund fee regulations [1]. - The stock market's decline may have triggered a chain reaction among multi-asset funds, leading the bond market to bear some selling pressure and deleveraging demands, evidenced by low divergence indices among brokers and funds [1]. - TL contracts have a high proportion of speculative funds, which tend to engage in short-term trading rather than long-term allocation, making them more susceptible to market sentiment and cyclical trading behaviors [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that the phenomenon of "simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds" with "greater declines in futures than in cash bonds" has occurred previously, specifically in late October 2023 and mid-March 2024, typically lasting no more than 10 days before a synchronized recovery in both markets [2].

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent phenomenon of simultaneous declines in both the stock and bond markets, particularly noting that TL contracts experienced a more significant drop compared to T contracts [1][6][9] - The lack of bullish momentum in the bond market is attributed to a low-risk environment and ongoing concerns regarding potential new fund fee regulations, leading to insufficient active buying interest [6][9] - The bond market has absorbed some selling pressure from the stock market's decline, indicating a chain reaction among multi-asset funds, with a notable increase in selling power from institutions like brokerages and funds [6][7] Group 2 - The report discusses the speculative nature of TL contracts, where a high proportion of speculative funds amplifies price volatility, particularly in a market lacking clear directional trends [7][9] - Historical data suggests that the simultaneous decline of stocks and bonds typically lasts no more than 10 days, after which a recovery in both markets is likely [9] - The report outlines various strategies for national bond futures, including the observation that the TL contract's institutional behavior factor has increased while the T contract has decreased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [12][13] Group 3 - The report notes that the IRR for various contracts has decreased, suggesting limited opportunities for profitable arbitrage strategies [13][17] - It highlights that while there is potential for the TL contract's basis to converge, the current arbitrage opportunities are relatively limited [17] - The report indicates that the cross-period strategies are being dominated by long positions, leading to a decrease in the price differentials between contracts [19][22]