债基为何也"玩心跳"？ 债券基金稳健的形象正在面临考验。 12月以来，债市再度遭遇逆风，10年期国债收益率冲高1.8723%，叠加地产信用风波与各种市场传闻，多只债基净值"跳水"。华宸未来稳健添利A近一月暴 跌7.72%，年内收益一朝清零，更将净值砸回两年前水平；作为纯债产品的汇添富丰和纯债A，年内跌幅累计超过7%，投资者直呼"跌出了股基的感觉"。 伴随净值下跌，赎回压力同步显现。作为三季度"失血王"的债基再度遭遇大额赎回，四季度近60只产品因大额赎回紧急提高净值精度。不过，第一财经从部 分机构人士处了解到，近期纯债产品赎回情况已渐趋平稳，叠加年末持续营销等因素，债基整体规模仍保持净流入。此外，"固收+"产品成为这一阶段的重 点营销项目。 那么，此轮调整原因为何？长城基金固定收益研究部副总经理吴冰燕告诉第一财经记者，本轮市场调整并非由基本面或资金面的实质性变化所主导，更多是 市场情绪波动叠加机构行为调整引发的阶段性波动。 展望后续，吴冰燕提示，市场接下来核心关注点集中在会议释放的政策增量信息，包括明年宏观政策基调、货币与财政政策协同方向、稳增长与防风险的平 衡措施等。"这些信息将直接影响机构对后续市场走势的判 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent phenomenon of simultaneous declines in both the stock and bond markets is primarily attributed to the bond market absorbing some of the redemption pressure and deleveraging demands caused by the stock market's pullback, with speculative funds in TL contracts further amplifying this volatility [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The bond market's motivation to go long has not increased due to the stock market's pullback, as the current environment is characterized by low odds and ongoing concerns about potential new fund fee regulations [1]. - The stock market's decline may have triggered a chain reaction among multi-asset funds, leading the bond market to bear some selling pressure and deleveraging demands, evidenced by low divergence indices among brokers and funds [1]. - TL contracts have a high proportion of speculative funds, which tend to engage in short-term trading rather than long-term allocation, making them more susceptible to market sentiment and cyclical trading behaviors [2]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that the phenomenon of "simultaneous declines in stocks and bonds" with "greater declines in futures than in cash bonds" has occurred previously, specifically in late October 2023 and mid-March 2024, typically lasting no more than 10 days before a synchronized recovery in both markets [2].

Group 1 - The report highlights the recent phenomenon of simultaneous declines in both the stock and bond markets, particularly noting that TL contracts experienced a more significant drop compared to T contracts [1][6][9] - The lack of bullish momentum in the bond market is attributed to a low-risk environment and ongoing concerns regarding potential new fund fee regulations, leading to insufficient active buying interest [6][9] - The bond market has absorbed some selling pressure from the stock market's decline, indicating a chain reaction among multi-asset funds, with a notable increase in selling power from institutions like brokerages and funds [6][7] Group 2 - The report discusses the speculative nature of TL contracts, where a high proportion of speculative funds amplifies price volatility, particularly in a market lacking clear directional trends [7][9] - Historical data suggests that the simultaneous decline of stocks and bonds typically lasts no more than 10 days, after which a recovery in both markets is likely [9] - The report outlines various strategies for national bond futures, including the observation that the TL contract's institutional behavior factor has increased while the T contract has decreased, indicating a shift in market dynamics [12][13] Group 3 - The report notes that the IRR for various contracts has decreased, suggesting limited opportunities for profitable arbitrage strategies [13][17] - It highlights that while there is potential for the TL contract's basis to converge, the current arbitrage opportunities are relatively limited [17] - The report indicates that the cross-period strategies are being dominated by long positions, leading to a decrease in the price differentials between contracts [19][22]