Group 1 - The report highlights the allocation value of equity assets based on the "see-saw effect" between stocks, bonds, and commodities, suggesting a favorable outlook for equity investments [5][7] - Global stock markets mostly declined in the week ending August 1, 2025, while major commodity futures saw mixed results, with oil and gold prices rising, and copper and aluminum prices falling [5][6] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant slowdown in job growth, with only 73,000 jobs added, which was below expectations, raising concerns about the labor market [9][10] Group 2 - In the domestic equity market, growth stocks outperformed, with an average daily trading volume of 1.787 trillion yuan, while 6 sectors rose and 25 sectors fell [6][18] - The report notes that the recent volatility in commodity prices has not been mirrored in stock prices, indicating a potential divergence in market behavior [7] - The U.S. employment data revealed a concerning trend, with revisions showing a cumulative reduction of 253,000 jobs in May and June, leading to increased market skepticism regarding the reliability of U.S. economic data [11][12] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of the U.S. employment data on market expectations for interest rate cuts, with a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in September following the disappointing job numbers [15][16] - The report also mentions the restoration of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025, which may affect bond market dynamics [17] - The analysis indicates that the service sector drove job growth in July, while the production sector remained weak, reflecting broader economic challenges [12][13]

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年08月03日 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 王鸿行 S0630522050001 whxing@longone.com.cn 联系人 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 ➢ 全球大类资产回顾。8月1日当周，全球股市多数下跌；主要商品期货中原油、黄金上涨， 铜、铝下跌；美元指数上涨，非美货币贬值。1）权益方面：英国富时100>创业板指>上证 指数>深证成指>日经225>科创50>沪深300指数>纳指>标普500>道指>德国DAX30>恒生 指数>法国CAC40>恒生科技指数。2）美欧达成贸易协议及地缘政治局势推升油价，但美 国原油库存意外增加以及OPEC+增长预期压制油价；非农走弱以及前值超预期下修推升 美联储降息预期，黄金上涨。3）工业品期货：南华工业品价格指数下跌，炼焦煤、螺纹钢 ...