Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In July 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, a decrease from 4.20 trillion yuan in the previous period[2] - The total social financing stock grew by 9.0% year-on-year, compared to 8.9% previously[2] - M2 money supply increased by 8.8% year-on-year, up from 8.3% in the prior period[2] - New M1 money supply rose by 5.6% year-on-year, compared to 4.6% previously[2] Group 2: Corporate Loan Trends - Corporate loans turned negative, with a decrease of 2.6 billion yuan in medium to long-term loans, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.9 billion yuan[47] - The contraction in corporate loans may benefit the Producer Price Index (PPI) by raising it year-on-year[3] - Despite weak loan performance, overall corporate financing is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The ongoing recovery of the corporate-resident deposit gap indicates continuous improvement in the economic cycle, supporting the view that the worst phase is passing[7] - The ratio of resident deposits to the total stock market value remains high, suggesting significant potential for market growth as the economic cycle improves[38] - The current high growth of non-bank deposits (2.1 trillion yuan added in July) indicates ample liquidity in financial institutions[38]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 7 月，新增社融 1.16 万亿（前值 4.20 万亿）。社融存量同比增长 9.0% （前值 8.9% ）， M2 同比增长 8.8% （前值 8.3% ），新口径 M1 同比增长 5.6% （前值 4.6% ）。 核心观点 1 、企业贷款转负不影响我们"看股做债，股债反转"的判断。过去几年企业贷款增长主要靠制造业贷款推动，因此企业贷款的收缩或与当下控制违规项目、产业技 术标准不达标的制造业投资相关。这个视角下，企业贷款收缩或有利于 PPI 同比的抬升。 2 、企业整体的融资规模仍在增长。虽然贷款表现偏弱，但是权益融资，债券融资较去年同期均有改善。经济转型过程中，地产和地方融资平台更适配传统的间接 融资，而高科技创新型企业则与直接融资更为适配。 3 、贷款的高低不必然对应经济的好坏。我们跟踪的企业居民存款剪刀差仍在持续修复，这意味着经济的循环持续改善，我们仍未改变经济循环最差的时段正在过 去这一判断。 4 、对于权益资产而言，本轮中国资本市场的稳 ...