近日，蓝鲸新闻记者专访了华创证券研究所副所长、首席宏观分析师张瑜。张瑜长期从事国内外宏观经济、大类资产配置、人民币汇率及金融 市场等方面研究，屡屡提出鲜明的市场观点，连续多年获得新财富最佳宏观分析师称号，在宏观分析领域颇具影响力。今年10月的总理座谈会 上，张瑜应邀发言，发挥专业特长，为国家宏观经济工作建言献策。 图片来源：视觉中国 蓝鲸新闻11月18日讯 （记者 李丹萍 胡劼）全方位扩大内需是推动我国经济持续回升向好、实现高质量发展的必然选择，放眼2026年，哪些措 施能促进消费的有效提振？面对外部冲击，我国外贸展现出强大韧性，但外需整体放缓，如何看待外贸出口形势？资本浪潮涌动，全球视野下 的中国资产正经历一场价值重估。坚定看好中国资产的投资价值，又需要重点关注哪些主线，遵循怎样的逻辑？ 蓝鲸新闻：今年前三季度的经济数据已经出来，对全年经济形势基本定调，市场普遍认为GDP5%的增长目标预期可实现。您有观点提出"经 济循环最差的时候正在过去"，应该如何理解，是否经济周期拐点将近？ 张瑜：我们提出经济循环最差的时候正在过去，是基于三年来第一次观察到经济领先指标的全部向上，意味着我们在这个位置上，对经济循环 有了 ...

Core Viewpoints - The financial data for October shows a mixed trend, with a decrease in corporate medium to long-term loans indicating a potential improvement in supply-demand balance, while a decline in household loans suggests a shift in consumer behavior [4][6][37] - The overall outlook for the A-share market remains optimistic in the medium term, despite short-term fluctuations expected in the fourth quarter due to changes in economic indicators [4][6] - The increase in non-bank deposits and the decline in M1 suggest a structural shift in the financial landscape, with implications for market liquidity and investment behavior [7][29] Group 1: Social Financing Observations - Corporate medium to long-term loans have decreased for four consecutive months, which may help improve the balance between supply and demand in the market [6][13] - Household loans have also seen a decline, with a notable drop in operational loans, indicating a shift towards production-related borrowing [6][17] - The significant increase in entrusted loans is likely linked to the deployment of policy financial tools, although the impact on the balance sheet of policy banks remains limited [6][21] - Direct financing through corporate bonds and domestic stock financing has shown continuous growth, benefiting high-tech and innovative enterprises [6][23] Group 2: Deposit Observations - Non-bank financial institution deposits increased significantly in October, indicating a stable environment for equity market transactions [7][26] - The decline in M1 year-on-year is attributed to seasonal factors, with expectations of continued downward trends in the old M1 measure [7][29][30] - Economic cycle indicators are showing a fluctuating trend, suggesting a potential slowdown in economic activity [7][33][34] Group 3: October Financial Data - The total social financing scale increased by 815 billion yuan in October, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5%, reflecting a mixed performance in credit allocation [6][38] - Household loans decreased by 360.4 billion yuan, with a notable drop in both short-term and medium to long-term loans [6][37] - M2 growth rate fell to 8.2%, indicating a broader trend of declining liquidity in the financial system [6][39]

Core Insights - The primary focus should be on expanding domestic demand, particularly consumer demand, as a priority for economic growth [1] - The main contradiction in China's economic operation has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, making effective demand expansion crucial for stable economic growth [1] - Current weak consumer demand is attributed to both short-term shocks and long-term structural issues, with insufficient social security and unstable consumer expectations being the main factors [1] Summary by Sections Economic Strategy - Zhang Jun's emphasis on prioritizing consumer demand is essential for achieving dynamic balance in total supply and demand at a higher level [1] - A stable and sustainable economic growth environment is necessary to address issues such as technological innovation, green transformation, and risk mitigation [1] Consumer Demand - The current state of consumer demand is weak due to various factors, including insufficient social security and low consumer confidence [1] - Service consumption is lacking, which is linked to both inadequate support levels and supply-side capabilities [1] Policy Recommendations - Policies to effectively release consumer potential should focus on three areas: counter-cyclical consumption policies, optimizing support for commodity consumption, and enhancing support for service consumption [2] - Increased subsidies in sectors like education, healthcare, elderly care, and childbirth are recommended to boost consumer willingness and capacity [2]

Group 1 - The core observation is that the recent National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday revealed a shift in consumer behavior, with a notable decline in traditional spending on hotels and movies, reflecting broader economic challenges [2][8] - The total box office for the National Day holiday in 2025 was 18.35 billion yuan, marking a 14% year-on-year decline despite an additional day of holiday [2][7] - Domestic travel during the holiday reached 8.88 billion trips, with total spending of 809 billion yuan, resulting in a daily per capita consumption of 113.9 yuan, down 13% year-on-year [2][5] Group 2 - The underlying logic for the decline in movie box office is attributed to insufficient investment in the film industry and inadequate production capacity [2][5] - The shift in consumer spending habits, such as opting for camping over hotel stays, is linked to reduced income and rising prices in tourist areas, making traditional options less appealing [2][5] - The correlation between the peaks in movie box office and real estate sales over the past decade indicates that the real estate sector has been a significant driver of economic activity [6][8] Group 3 - In the real estate sector, new home sales during the holiday period showed significant activity, with reports of high visitor numbers and substantial sales in cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [9][12][14] - Beijing recorded a total of 418 new residential contracts during the holiday, while Guangzhou saw a 394% increase in new home purchases compared to the previous year [10][12] - The disparity between new and second-hand home sales is evident, with new homes performing well while second-hand transactions have significantly decreased [17][18]

Core Insights - The overall economic operation in China remains stable, with solid progress in high-quality development, but faces challenges from a complex external environment and insufficient domestic demand [1] - Effective demand remains a major bottleneck for current economic development, characterized by weak consumer spending and insufficient investment growth [1] Group 1: Economic Environment - The external environment is complex and severe, with many unstable and uncertain factors impacting the economy [1] - Domestic market conditions show strong supply but weak demand, leading to operational difficulties for some enterprises [1] Group 2: Consumer Demand - Insufficient effective demand is a primary constraint on economic growth, with low consumer spending capacity and willingness [1] - Policies have been implemented at both central and local levels to address effective demand issues, achieving notable results, yet demand has not met expectations [1][2] Group 3: Policy Recommendations - A systematic approach is needed to unlock market potential by creating a favorable environment for consumption [2] - Local governments should enhance consumption facilities, policy environments, market regulation, and consumer rights protection to boost consumer confidence [2] Group 4: Investment and Consumption Relationship - The relationship between investment and consumption must be better managed, as the economy has shifted to rely more on domestic demand driven by consumption [3] - Expanding domestic demand is a strategic move, with boosting consumption being a top priority for achieving economic balance [3]

Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment towards the capital market, especially the stock market, is optimistic, with an emphasis on taking advantage of favorable conditions as they arise [4]. Group 1: Five Key Judgments - The worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing, with all leading economic indicators showing upward trends for the first time in three years [5]. - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is also seen as coming to an end, with a stable funding environment expected to be negatively correlated with improving economic prospects [5]. - Preconditions for supply-demand balance have emerged, as investment growth in the upstream and midstream sectors has begun to decline [5]. - There is no simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds; instead, a rebalancing of stock and bond allocations is necessary, as the relative value of stocks compared to bonds has improved [5]. - The main logic for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been clearly triggered, with short-term appreciation likely needing further economic validation [5]. Group 2: Economic Cycle - The current economic situation is characterized by significant disparities in economic structure, making total data assessments somewhat misleading [10]. - The reliance on deposit indicators has increased, as the shift from precautionary savings to normal savings is crucial for understanding the economic cycle [10]. - Leading indicators such as old-caliber M1 and the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits are critical for predicting future economic performance [14][15]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The shift from precautionary to normal savings among residents is expected to influence monetary policy and market stability [22]. - The relationship between old-caliber M1 and R007 indicates that as the economy improves, funding volatility is likely to increase, posing challenges for bonds [24]. Group 4: Supply-Demand Balance - Historical experiences suggest that a decline in supply is a crucial precondition for price stabilization [27]. - The current situation shows that upstream supply is outpacing demand, particularly in raw materials, which is exerting downward pressure on prices [29]. - The midstream sector is also experiencing an accumulation of production capacity, which has led to a downward price trend [30]. Group 5: Stock-Bond Dynamics - The analysis indicates that there is likely no simultaneous bull market in stocks and bonds, but rather a reversal in their relationship [32]. - The stock-bond Sharpe ratio difference has been declining, suggesting that bonds have had a comparative advantage over stocks [33]. - The anticipated reversal in asset allocation is expected to occur slightly ahead of the economic cycle, with policy interventions playing a significant role [39]. Group 6: Currency and Macro Trends - The main chain for a trend of appreciation in the RMB has not yet been triggered, with historical patterns indicating that PMI improvements are necessary for such a shift [44][45]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive for the next six months, with stable overseas demand and improved U.S.-China relations contributing to market stability [52].

Economic Growth Overview - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year. From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The spokesperson from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the economic growth remains stable, and macro policies will focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, while promoting steady and healthy economic development [1] Domestic Demand Expansion - The effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand continue to manifest, with the third batch of consumption upgrade policies being implemented, leading to a rapid increase in sales of related goods [2] - In August, retail sales of household appliances, furniture, and cultural office supplies maintained double-digit growth [2] - The production sector is also benefiting from these policies, with significant year-on-year increases in the manufacturing of boilers and electric motors at 11.9% and 14.8%, respectively [2] Innovation and New Growth Drivers - Policies promoting innovation are enhancing new growth drivers, with the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative gaining traction and digital economy development showing positive trends [3] - The stock market in August saw increased activity, which is beneficial for improving market expectations and enhancing development vitality [3] Private Investment Growth - A series of supportive measures for the development of the private economy are optimizing the environment for private investment, leading to significant growth in high-tech industries [4] - From January to August, private investment in the information service industry grew by 26.7%, while professional technical services saw a 17.6% increase [4] - Private capital is steadily participating in major national infrastructure projects, with private investment in infrastructure rising by 7.5%, outpacing overall infrastructure investment growth by 5.5 percentage points [4] Future Outlook - Despite challenges faced by some private enterprises, the future development space for the economy remains broad, supported by the growth in green industries and the implementation of the Private Economy Promotion Law [5] - The continuous implementation of macro policies is expected to maintain a steady and progressive economic trend in the third quarter [6]

Group 1: Macro News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation have released the "Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry 2025-2026," which includes 16 specific measures aimed at promoting industrial upgrades, enhancing the high-quality supply system, and fostering economic circulation [1] - The plan focuses on three main areas: promoting industrial upgrades, deepening the construction of a high-quality supply system, and driving the integration of technological and industrial innovation [1] Group 2: Renewable Energy Development - The National Energy Administration is actively researching policy measures to promote the development of deep-sea offshore wind power and solar thermal power, emphasizing the acceleration of new models and new business formats in renewable energy [2] - The administration aims to leverage a series of supportive policies to facilitate the growth of emerging industries in the renewable energy sector [2] Group 3: Local Government Debt - In August, local government bond issuance reached 977.6 billion yuan, exceeding the previously announced issuance plan of 940.8 billion yuan [5] - Five provinces (municipalities) issued over 50 billion yuan in bonds, with Anhui leading at 92.7 billion yuan, followed by Guangdong at 92.1 billion yuan and Zhejiang at 76.0 billion yuan [5]

Core Viewpoints - The contraction of corporate loans does not affect the judgment that the worst period of the economic cycle is passing [4][6] - Overall corporate financing scale is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year [4][6] - The level of loans does not necessarily correspond to the health of the economy, as the ongoing recovery of the corporate-resident deposit gap indicates continuous improvement in the economic cycle [4][6] - Current market policies have reduced stock volatility, enhancing risk-adjusted returns for equities, making them more attractive compared to bonds [4][6] Group 1: Understanding Corporate Loan Contraction - In July, corporate short-term loans decreased by 550 billion, and medium to long-term loans decreased by 260 billion, indicating a seasonal factor as July is traditionally a low month for credit [13][14] - The reduction in corporate loans may benefit the Producer Price Index (PPI) by controlling the flow of loans to the manufacturing sector, which has been a focus of recent supply-side reforms [16][19] - Corporate financing is not limited to loans; direct financing has shown strong performance, indicating a shift in economic structure towards more suitable financing methods for high-tech and innovative enterprises [19][23] Group 2: July Financial Data and Its Impact on Investment Judgments - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.1 trillion, marking the third highest value for the year, indicating ample liquidity in financial institutions [30][31] - The ratio of resident deposits to the market value of stocks remains high, suggesting significant potential for market growth as the economic cycle improves [30][31] - The Sharpe ratio for stocks compared to bonds is increasing, indicating a reversal in the attractiveness of equities over bonds, driven by clear market stabilization policies [31][36] Group 3: July Financial Data Overview - In July, the total social financing increased by 1.16 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, while corporate loans decreased significantly [37][38] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a healthy increase in liquidity, while new M1 also showed a positive trend [38][39] - The overall corporate financing scale continues to recover, with improvements in direct financing methods such as corporate bond and equity financing [37][39]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents five key judgments regarding the current economic situation in China, indicating that the worst period of economic circulation is likely over, and emphasizes a shift away from reliance on extraordinary policies and the loosest monetary policy phase [2][18]. Group 1: Economic Circulation - The worst period of economic circulation is likely passing, with a GDP growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year and leading indicators showing objective improvement [2][3]. - Key indicators of economic circulation include the difference in growth rates between corporate and household deposits, M1 growth, and various measures of household savings behavior, all of which have shown signs of recovery over the past 6-9 months [3][4]. Group 2: Policy Changes - The reliance on extraordinary policy measures is diminishing, with a focus on the effectiveness of existing policies rather than new ones, as evidenced by a 8.9% increase in fiscal spending in the first half of the year [7][8]. - The potential for new incremental policies in the second half of the year is significantly reduced, with a focus on monitoring the release of household deposits and leading indicators [7][8]. Group 3: Monetary Policy - The period of the most accommodative monetary policy is likely coming to an end, as indicated by the current state of household deposits and the relationship between deposit behavior and monetary policy [9][12]. - The total household deposits have reached 160 trillion, with a significant portion being precautionary savings, suggesting a shift in monetary policy dynamics [9][12]. Group 4: Investment Landscape - The relative attractiveness of bonds compared to stocks is changing, with a notable increase in the Sharpe ratio for stocks, indicating a potential shift in asset allocation from bonds to stocks [12][14]. - The capital market's stability and attractiveness are being reinforced by policy interventions, which have reduced volatility and downside risks in the stock market [12][14]. Group 5: Competition and Market Dynamics - The current phase of intense competition driven by unfair practices is likely coming to an end, with ongoing efforts to regulate and optimize market competition [14][16]. - The government is focusing on enhancing market order and addressing issues related to unfair competition, which may positively impact economic circulation and pricing [16][17].