4 - 中国股票配置价值已打开 5 - 看股做债，不是看债做股 6 - 看股做债→股债反转——居民存款搬家"三支箭"的研究脉络 文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） "存款搬家+股债反转"系列 1 - 坐在居民存款的"火山口" 2 - M1同比为什么转负？——新的三分法定量归因 3 - 居民存款搬家与央行宽松的"跷跷板" 7 - 居民存款的"存"与"搬"——五大指标助观察 事项 2025 年 8 月，新增社融 2.57 万亿（前值 1.13 万亿）。社融存量同比 8.8% （前值 9.0% ）， M2 同比 8.8% （前值 8.8% ），新口径 M1 同比 6% （前值 5.6% ）。 核心观点 1 、存款搬家仍在进行时。我们跟踪的企业居民存款剪刀差（领先利润同比一年，表征经济循环）和居民新 增货币 /M2 的比重（表征货币周转效率）仍在持续改善。维持经济循环最差的时候过去了的判断。 2 、中国居民没有超额储蓄，只有防御性存款。储蓄的定义是居民收入减去居民消费的部分。疫情前后，中 国居民储蓄占收入比重 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the current economic cycle is improving, with the worst phase behind, indicating a potential recovery in asset prices and investment opportunities [4][5]. - The article highlights that the attractiveness of stocks compared to bonds has significantly increased, driven by government policies that have stabilized the capital market and reduced stock volatility, leading to higher risk-adjusted returns for equities [3][7]. - It notes that the trend of favoring bonds over stocks may be reversing, and investors should start to pay attention to the value of equity investments relative to bonds [3][7]. Group 2 - The article discusses the implications of residents' deposits being utilized more effectively, which could lead to a rise in asset prices and a tightening of monetary policy as a response to prevent excessive capital turnover [3]. - It emphasizes that the most accommodative phase of monetary policy is coming to an end, suggesting a shift in the financial landscape that could affect investment strategies [4]. - The analysis includes data on the financing dynamics of non-bank institutions, indicating a complex interaction between various financial entities and the real economy, which may influence future investment decisions [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The decline in corporate loans does not affect the "watch stocks and trade bonds, stock - bond reversal" judgment. The overall corporate financing scale is still growing, and the current market rally may have significant potential. The recovery of the residents' balance sheet is triggered by the return of the average earnings of the 3 - trillion - yuan funds issued during the 2019 - 2021 bull market. The market re - balancing style may be influenced by the subsequent inflow channels of market - entering funds. The bond market has entered the second stage of the "three - step" process in the second half of the year, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield may fluctuate in the range of 1.65% - 1.75%. Euro assets face systemic risks, and most A - share and Hong Kong stock timing models are bullish [3][13][18]. Summary by Directory Macro - Zhang Yu - Corporate loan contraction is related to the control of manufacturing investment, which may be beneficial for PPI growth. The overall corporate financing scale is increasing as equity and bond financing have improved compared to the previous year. The current economic cycle is improving, and stocks are more cost - effective than bonds. The "watch stocks and trade bonds" narrative remains unchanged, and the central bank may address potential capital idling [13][15][16]. Strategy - Yao Pei - The balance sheets of various sectors are being repaired. The return of the average earnings of the 3 - trillion - yuan funds issued during the 2019 - 2021 bull market is a key trigger for the repair of the residents' balance sheet. The stock market is an important cornerstone for the repair of the residents' balance sheet. After the funds return to profitability, the redemption pressure may increase, and the "redemption" funds are likely to flow back to financial assets. The market re - balancing style is affected by the inflow channels of subsequent market - entering funds [18][19][25]. Fixed Income - Zhou Guannan - In August, the bond market enters the policy effect verification period, with potential support from new policy - based financial tools, "anti - involution" price repair, and external factors. Liquidity may face disturbances from payments and the stock - bond seesaw effect. The supply of bonds is increasing while demand is limited, resulting in supply - demand pressure. Historically, the bond market in August may be volatile. The bond market has entered the second stage of the "three - step" process in the second half of the year, and investors should adjust positions and take profits in a timely manner [26][27][30]. Multi - Asset Allocation - Guo Zhongliang - Euro assets face three systemic risks: extremely low risk premiums, weak economic recovery, and a strong euro. These risks may lead investors to reduce their allocation of euro assets [32][33][34]. Quantitative Finance - Wang Xiaochuan - Most A - share and Hong Kong stock timing models are bullish. The total positions of stock - type and hybrid funds have increased this week. Communication and basic chemicals have received the largest institutional increases, while transportation and electronics have received the largest institutional decreases. The VIX index has risen. The recommended industries for next week are textile and apparel, consumer services, power and utilities, transportation, and non - ferrous metals [34][39][46]. Finance - Xu Geng - The A - share trading volume has exceeded 2 trillion yuan on 27 trading days in three periods, indicating the market's evolution towards a more mature one. The current trading volume and margin trading balance confirm active market sentiment. The securities sector has performance growth and valuation repair potential. Short - term focus on market sentiment - driven opportunities, and long - term focus on high - quality targets [47][48].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Weakening credit and investment indicate a potential balance in supply and demand, suggesting a positive outlook for the market[2] - The current market intervention policies have reduced stock volatility, enhancing risk-adjusted returns for equities[2] - The overall financing scale for enterprises is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year[12] Group 2: Fund Performance and Asset Allocation - The average return of newly established public funds in the current bull market has reached breakeven, with a total of 3 trillion yuan in new funds issued from 2019 to 2021[18] - Fund redemption pressures are expected to increase post-breakeven, particularly in sectors like new energy, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage[22] - The total position of stock funds is at 99.11%, reflecting a 61 basis point increase from the previous week, indicating strong market sentiment[40] Group 3: Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to enter a "hard mode," with the 10-year government bond yield projected to rise slightly to a core volatility range of 1.65%-1.75%[31] - The second phase of the bond market strategy emphasizes timely adjustments and profit-taking, particularly around the 1.65% yield level[31] - The liquidity gap in August is estimated to be around 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating a seasonal increase in funding pressure[29] Group 4: European Market Risks - Eurozone assets face systemic risks, including low risk premiums and potential overvaluation compared to U.S. assets[32] - The Eurozone's economic recovery remains fragile, with weak credit demand and declining growth rates in M3 money supply[33] - The strong euro has negatively impacted exports, with a decline in export growth from 3% to 0.9% year-on-year[34]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In July 2025, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, a decrease from 4.20 trillion yuan in the previous period[2] - The total social financing stock grew by 9.0% year-on-year, compared to 8.9% previously[2] - M2 money supply increased by 8.8% year-on-year, up from 8.3% in the prior period[2] - New M1 money supply rose by 5.6% year-on-year, compared to 4.6% previously[2] Group 2: Corporate Loan Trends - Corporate loans turned negative, with a decrease of 2.6 billion yuan in medium to long-term loans, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.9 billion yuan[47] - The contraction in corporate loans may benefit the Producer Price Index (PPI) by raising it year-on-year[3] - Despite weak loan performance, overall corporate financing is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year[3] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The ongoing recovery of the corporate-resident deposit gap indicates continuous improvement in the economic cycle, supporting the view that the worst phase is passing[7] - The ratio of resident deposits to the total stock market value remains high, suggesting significant potential for market growth as the economic cycle improves[38] - The current high growth of non-bank deposits (2.1 trillion yuan added in July) indicates ample liquidity in financial institutions[38]

Core Viewpoints - The contraction of corporate loans does not affect the judgment that the worst period of the economic cycle is passing [4][6] - Overall corporate financing scale is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year [4][6] - The level of loans does not necessarily correspond to the health of the economy, as the ongoing recovery of the corporate-resident deposit gap indicates continuous improvement in the economic cycle [4][6] - Current market policies have reduced stock volatility, enhancing risk-adjusted returns for equities, making them more attractive compared to bonds [4][6] Group 1: Understanding Corporate Loan Contraction - In July, corporate short-term loans decreased by 550 billion, and medium to long-term loans decreased by 260 billion, indicating a seasonal factor as July is traditionally a low month for credit [13][14] - The reduction in corporate loans may benefit the Producer Price Index (PPI) by controlling the flow of loans to the manufacturing sector, which has been a focus of recent supply-side reforms [16][19] - Corporate financing is not limited to loans; direct financing has shown strong performance, indicating a shift in economic structure towards more suitable financing methods for high-tech and innovative enterprises [19][23] Group 2: July Financial Data and Its Impact on Investment Judgments - In July, non-bank deposits increased by 2.1 trillion, marking the third highest value for the year, indicating ample liquidity in financial institutions [30][31] - The ratio of resident deposits to the market value of stocks remains high, suggesting significant potential for market growth as the economic cycle improves [30][31] - The Sharpe ratio for stocks compared to bonds is increasing, indicating a reversal in the attractiveness of equities over bonds, driven by clear market stabilization policies [31][36] Group 3: July Financial Data Overview - In July, the total social financing increased by 1.16 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 9%, while corporate loans decreased significantly [37][38] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a healthy increase in liquidity, while new M1 also showed a positive trend [38][39] - The overall corporate financing scale continues to recover, with improvements in direct financing methods such as corporate bond and equity financing [37][39]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July 2025, new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, down from 4.20 trillion yuan in the previous period[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 9.0%, compared to 8.9% previously[1] - M2 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, up from 8.3% in the previous period[1] Group 2: Corporate Loan Trends - Corporate loans turned negative with a decrease of 2.6 billion yuan in medium to long-term loans and 5.5 billion yuan in short-term loans[11] - The contraction in corporate loans may benefit the year-on-year increase in PPI[2] - Despite weak loan performance, overall corporate financing is still growing, with improvements in equity and bond financing compared to the same period last year[2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The current market sentiment remains strong, with non-bank deposits increasing by 2.1 trillion yuan, marking the third highest value for the year[5] - The ratio of household deposits to the market capitalization of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remains at a historical high of 1.7 times, indicating potential for further market growth[5] - The Sharpe ratio for stocks continues to rise compared to bonds, suggesting that stocks still offer better risk-adjusted returns[7] Group 4: Policy Implications - The narrative of "watching stocks and doing bonds" remains unchanged despite the negative corporate loan trend, as the worst phase of the economic cycle is believed to be passing[4] - The increase in non-bank deposits may lead to central bank concerns about fund idling, potentially impacting the bond market[3]

Core Viewpoint - The core contradiction in China's macroeconomic landscape in recent years is the relationship between residents' savings and spending, which influences economic circulation, monetary policy, and the relationship between stocks and bonds, referred to as the "three arrows" [2] Group 1: Changes in Residents' Savings - Residents' savings are transitioning from "excessive saving" to "normal saving" and then to "spending," indicating an improvement in economic circulation [2][10] - The shift in residents' savings will likely lead to a pulse-like movement in non-bank deposits, which could drive asset prices up rapidly [3] - The increase in non-bank deposits, viewed as "under-allocated" funds, has the potential to push asset prices higher [3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Implications - As residents begin to spend their savings, the necessity for monetary policy to remain loose diminishes, allowing for a tighter monetary stance [4][14] - The transition from saving to spending by residents will likely reduce the need for further monetary easing by the central bank, especially if it leads to improved corporate profits and investment [13][14] Group 3: Stock and Bond Market Dynamics - The relationship between stocks and bonds will shift towards favoring stocks as residents' spending increases, leading to a "look at stocks, do bonds" strategy rather than a simultaneous bull market in both [16][17] - The current environment suggests that stocks are becoming more attractive compared to bonds, with a notable increase in the Sharpe ratio for stocks relative to bonds [18] - The divergence in the Sharpe ratio between stocks and bonds indicates a significant recovery in the attractiveness of equity investments [18]