分析师 1: 各位投资者大家晚上好，欢迎大家参加华创固收团队的周观点交流会。那今天也是大年初 八，是我们在马年的第一次的汇报。首先也是给各位投资者拜个晚年，祝大家在马年马踏 星河，所愿皆得。那今天的话，我们主要还是开年，春节之后，给大家汇报一下我们对于 债券市场，利率、信用、转债三个板块的看法，也帮大家梳理一下，就是在这个节中，市 场到底有哪些值得关注的信息。那么开年我们需要关注哪些对债券市场有影响的因素。从 今天的这个盘面来看，债券市场还是表现出了一定的这个股债翘板的影响。 但是，这个在节前的最后一周吧，我觉得市场表现还是比较符合我们此前在 2 月份的推荐。 因为时间也比较久，所以简单给大家回顾一下我们在这个 1 月底的 2 月策略汇报里面，给 大家这个推荐的观点是，2 月份可以去相对积极的布局下半布局上半年的债券市场的一些 交易机会。倒不是说 2 月份我们就会看到比较大的行情的启动，而是从季节性的表现来看， 3~7 月份其实是债券市场全年胜率比较高的一个时间窗口。那么在没有明显的利空扰动， 2 月份收率上行风险可控的一个情况下，我们拿到一定的票息，并且去为三、四月份可能 带来的交易行情做准备，可能是一个比 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative factors in the bond market are accelerating to be exhausted. The early - year "bad start" in the bond market is mainly due to the recovery of risk - appetite (a "sooner - or - later" shock), the absence of monetary easing (a "late - but - coming" misalignment), and concerns about supply shocks (a "wait - and - see" situation). The long - end yield has no basis for a large - scale upward trend, and the high point is emerging while the negative factors are fading [3][4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Bond Market "Bad Start" and Yield Performance - At the beginning of the year, the bond market had a "bad start", with the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds rising significantly. The 10 - year treasury bond yield approached 1.9%, and the 30 - year treasury bond yield adjusted above 2.3%, reaching a new high since 2025. The 1 - year treasury bond yield has fallen below 1.3%, and the yield curve has steepened again [10]. 3.2 Reasons for the Bond Market "Bad Start" 3.2.1 Recovery of Risk - Appetite - The recovery of risk - appetite is the primary factor for the bond market's "bad start". The return of the stock - bond seesaw is inevitable. If the stock market's spring offensive comes earlier or stronger, the bond market will adjust earlier or more. However, since the fundamental environment has not reversed, the suppression of bonds by risk - appetite should be temporary [11]. 3.2.2 Absence of Monetary Easing - The absence of monetary easing is the secondary factor. The bond market's expectation of monetary easing has been extremely compressed. The non - increase in the central bank's bond - buying scale at the end of the year has hit the bond market's expectation of monetary easing again. As the bond's allocation value becomes more obvious, a potential interest - rate cut will turn from an "escape opportunity" to a "reversal opportunity" [14]. 3.2.3 Concerns about Supply Shocks - Concerns about supply shocks are the continuing factor. There is no substantial new information on the supply side recently. The 30 - year minus 10 - year spread is high enough, containing most of the premium for future supply shocks. Supply pressure may only exist in expectations considering policy goals and ongoing work [16][17]. 3.3 Certainty of the Steep Yield Curve - The long - end yield has no basis for a large - scale upward trend, with an early shock and an early high point. The investment return rate has declined in recent years, and the after - tax mortgage rate is lower than the 30 - year treasury bond after - tax yield. The policy - rate cut will lead to a decline in the broad - spectrum interest rate, and the steep yield curve already implies this, with negative factors fading [18].