期货研究报告 2025年12月22日 周报 国债期货：震荡属性增加 关注因素：1.股债跷跷板逻辑是否依然成立；2.货币宽松预期；3.年底资金面情况 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究报告 1.期货市场回顾 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 市场回顾与展望：年底中央经济工作会议，实施适度宽松的货币政策和更加积极的财政政策，加大逆 周期和跨周期调节力度。在美联储降息及人民币汇率缓慢升级的背景下，货币政策打开了空间，在2026年 即将到来之际，市场对明年年初货币宽松的预期增加，股债跷跷板逻辑有转换为股债双牛逻辑的预期增加。 从年底公布的经济数据来看，经济依然承压，经济基本面依然对债市存在一定支持。年底的中央政治 局会议和中央经济工作会议，定调明年经济工作，强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政 赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，重视解决地方财政困难。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种政策工具。目前来看，在货币宽松预期的支撑下，年底资金面的扰动较为有限，如果资金 利率不再走高，那么债市的利空因素减弱，债市的震荡属性 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The European Central Bank's decision not to cut interest rates has a bearish impact on the US dollar index and is favorable for precious metals. With an increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, silver is expected to be moderately bullish in the medium term [1]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is slightly increasing, and port inventories are decreasing. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2100 level [1]. - During the negotiation of next year's long - term agreements, the supply of lithium carbonate remains high, while demand in the power and energy storage markets is strong. It is expected to see significant inventory reduction in November [3]. - After the start of the safety production assessment in November, the supply support of coking coal has weakened, but the downward trend of coking coal futures needs further observation [4]. - The production and apparent demand of rebar have declined, and inventories have continued to decrease. Steel prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, but the upside is limited [4]. - Pig prices are mainly stable. Although some producers try to raise prices, the large supply and weak downstream demand make it difficult for prices to rise [5]. - The implementation delay of the EU Deforestation - Free Act and the approaching of the palm oil production - reduction season support palm oil prices, but due to contract roll - over, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the weak domestic aquaculture industry restricts demand growth. The 01 contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6]. - The economic data in October shows downward pressure, which is favorable for the bond market. However, due to the end - of - year period, the bond market is expected to be volatile [6]. - The potential resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut make gold bullish in the short term and may be volatile at a high level in the medium term [7]. - The decline in US drilling platforms and production, along with the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, lead to an oil price rebound. The OPEC+ meeting is expected to maintain the current production level [8]. - The low polyester inventory and the decline in PTA load make the PTA supply - demand structure relatively good in the short term [8]. - The low tire operating rate and weak terminal demand, along with the strong raw material prices and expected increase in overseas shipments, make the natural rubber market expected to be volatile [10]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with production fluctuating and downstream enterprises purchasing on demand. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. - The supply pressure of polypropylene is increasing, and the supply - demand imbalance makes its trend weak. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: The European Central Bank's stance on interest rates and the increased Fed rate - cut expectation are favorable for silver, which is moderately bullish in the medium term [1]. - **Gold**: The potential resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed rate - cut expectation make gold bullish in the short term and may be volatile at a high level in the medium term [7]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high production, increasing downstream demand, and decreasing inventories. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: During the negotiation of long - term agreements, high supply and strong demand lead to expected inventory reduction in November [3]. - **PTA**: Low polyester inventory and reduced PTA load make the supply - demand structure relatively good in the short term [8]. - **Rubber**: Low tire operating rate, weak terminal demand, strong raw material prices, and expected increase in overseas shipments make the market expected to be volatile [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic market is stable, with production fluctuating and downstream enterprises purchasing on demand. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply pressure is increasing, and the supply - demand imbalance makes its trend weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The decline in US production and the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan lead to a price rebound. The OPEC+ meeting is expected to maintain the current production level [8]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: After the safety production assessment, supply support has weakened, but the downward trend of futures needs further observation [4]. - **Rebar**: Production and demand have declined, and inventories have decreased. Steel prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with limited upside [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: Prices are mainly stable, with producers trying to raise prices but facing difficulties due to large supply and weak demand [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The implementation delay of the EU Deforestation - Free Act and the approaching production - reduction season support prices, but due to contract roll - over, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Abundant supply and weak aquaculture demand restrict growth. The 01 contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic data in October shows downward pressure, which is favorable for the bond market. However, due to the end - of - year period, the bond market is expected to be volatile [6].