分析师：徐至 登记编码：S0730525040001 继续关注科技成长及高股息"哑铃"策略 ——月度策略 相关报告 《月度策略：平稳收官, 高股息防御与科技成 长布局——月度策略》 2025-12-03 《月度策略：增配价值资产，等待成长资产性 价比回归——月度策略》 2025-11-05 《月度策略：均衡配置成长与价值风格，防范 联系人：李智 证券研究报告-月度策略 发布日期：2026 年 01 月 07 日 投资要点： 风险提示：政策及经济数据不及预期，风险事件冲击市场流动性。报 告样本数据有限，历史过往数据不代表未来表现。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共20页 电话： 0371-65585629 地址： 郑州郑东新区商务外环路10号18楼 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788号T1座22楼 风格切换——月度策略》 2025-10-09 宏观方面。宏观数据仍指向内需偏弱、通胀走势平稳，12 月举行 的中央经济工作会议定调 2026 年实施"更加积极的财政政策"与 "适度宽松的货币政策"，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，并着重 于扩大内需、 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" indicates a mid - term macro trend of "quantity increase and quality improvement", and the bullish trend of the market remains intact. However, in the short term, at the 4000 - point level of the stock market, the valuation is not cheap from both the stock - bond ERP and price - earnings ratio perspectives. The recent trading data shows a certain divergence from the rising stock index, reflecting the wait - and - see sentiment of funds. Without more positive news to boost sentiment, the expansion of valuation may be limited, and the market may continue to show a volatile trend. The market may be in a sideways movement, and the previous one - sided upward trend of the technology sector will shift to a more balanced style [2]. - The market trading in November is expected to be relatively light, with only the South African G20 meeting. Given the recent meeting between Chinese and US leaders, there may be a lack of major diplomatic news. The PMI in October significantly declined. Before the important policy - setting meeting in December, there are certain policy expectations, and if policies are announced through ministerial press conferences, it may provide intermittent support for the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Stock Market Performance Last Week**: The market rose first and then fell last week. In terms of sectors, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, and steel led the gains, while communication, beauty care, and banking led the losses. At the beginning of the week, with the release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" content and positive news from the China - US - Malaysia economic and trade negotiations, the bullish pattern continued. However, after the Fed cut interest rates as expected on Thursday morning but the Fed Chairman issued hawkish remarks, the certainty of a December rate cut decreased, and the US stocks fell. The A - share market also showed a pattern of "buy on rumor, sell on news" after the meeting between Chinese and US leaders on Thursday morning, and the Shanghai Composite Index reached a phased high of 4025.7 [1]. - **Short - term Market Outlook**: The short - term market may continue to fluctuate. The market trading in November is light, and there are policy expectations before the December policy - setting meeting. The market style will become more balanced [2]. - **Factors to Watch**: Domestic economic data and policy expectations [3]. 3.2 Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt an interval trading strategy and go long on pullbacks. The core operating range of the IF2511 main contract is expected to be between 4502 and 4734 points, IH2511 between 2941 and 3077 points, IC2511 between 7072 and 7546 points, and IM2511 between 7179 and 7663 points [4]. - **Variety Strategy**: Due to the unclear trend, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.3 Spot Market Review - **Global Stock Index Performance Last Week**: Global stock indices showed mixed performance last week. The Nikkei 225 rose by 6.31%, the Nasdaq by 2.24%, the Taiwan Weighted Index by 2.55%, and the Brazilian BOVESPA Index by 2.30%. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.11%, while the Russian RTS, S&P 500, and other indices had different degrees of decline [9]. - **Performance of Major Domestic Indices**: Most major domestic indices rose last week. The ChiNext Index rose by 0.50%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.67%, the Small and Medium - cap Index by 0.87%, and the CSI 500 by 1.00%. The Shanghai 50 Index fell by 1.12%, and the CSI 1000 fell by 1.0% [11]. - **Industry Performance of Major Indices**: The industries of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices showed mixed performance last week. For example, among the CSI 500 industries, the utilities sector rose by 2.27%, and the industrial sector rose by 2.30%, while the information and energy sectors declined [15][16]. 3.4 Stock Index Futures Market Review - **Performance of Stock Index Futures Last Week**: The IC main contract of stock index futures had the largest increase and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures both rebounded [14][20]. - **Basis and Cross - Variety Trends of Stock Index Futures**: The report also shows the basis (futures - spot) trend and cross - variety trends of stock index futures main contracts [20]. 3.5 Index Valuation Tracking - As of October 31, the price - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 300 Index was 14.11 times, and that of the Shanghai 50 Index was 11.77 times. The price - earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI 500 Index was 33.4 times, and that of the CSI 1000 Index was 47.53 times [21][23]. 3.6 Market Capital Flow Review - **Newly Established Equity - Oriented Funds and Margin Trading**: The report shows the trends of newly established equity - oriented fund shares and margin trading balances in the two markets [25]. - **Funding Rate and Central Bank's Net Injection**: The funding rate rebounded last week, and the central bank had net injections [25].