Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a divergence between stock market performance and macroeconomic fundamentals, with a notable increase in the proportion of stock investments among risk assets, which may be a key driver supporting the stock market [1][3][4] - A new phenomenon observed is the decline in consumer spending inclination alongside an increase in investment inclination, which is historically rare and its sustainability remains to be seen [1][3] - The current market rally is characterized by a stable wealth level among residents, with the average urban household asset remaining relatively unchanged compared to previous market uptrends [4][9] Group 2 - The analysis suggests that the stock market's long-term performance cannot decouple from economic fundamentals, as a "reallocation" phase may precede corporate profit improvements [3][4] - The proportion of investors willing to invest in stocks has increased from 13.5% in Q2 2024 to 17.2% in Q3 2025, indicating a rising risk appetite among those already invested in risk assets [16][23] - The relationship between the choice to invest in stocks and overall income sentiment is weak, suggesting that the stock market's performance may not directly correlate with macroeconomic conditions [16][34] Group 3 - The current market rally has seen a significant increase in the proportion of investors choosing to invest in stocks, reaching 17.2%, which is above the 70th percentile since 2019 [34][35] - The stock market's support factors, which are less correlated with fundamentals, may continue to bolster the market, but uncertainties could also rise [34][35] - The potential for policy support to enhance income confidence and stabilize wealth levels is crucial for further stock market support, particularly in addressing debt resolution [34][35]

中金研究 一段时间内，股市的表现和宏观基本面出现分化。如果从微观层面来看，可能与资金来源有关。一个现象是所谓的"存款搬家"尚非普遍现象，但风险 投资中股市比例显著上升，可能是支撑股市的关键动力。这个比例的变化与总收入指数相关性不强，导致市场表现与宏观经济出现分化。还有一个新 现象是近期居民消费倾向下降、投资倾向上升，历史上这个现象不多见，其持续性尚待观察。展望未来，初步分析显示，基本面与市场表现可能收 敛。如果外资在全球货币体系多元化背景下降低美元资产敞口、增加人民币资产敞口，那么股市的空间就会相应增加。另外，如果股市上涨带来羊群 效应，基本面与股市表现分化的时间也有可能延长。 点击小程序查看报告原文 图表1：2010年以来四轮市场概况 | | | | 市场概况 | | | | 央行城镇储户调查(百分点变化) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 起点 | 终点 | 持续月份 | 万得全A涨幅 | 上轮顶点 | 距离上轮顶 上轮顶点以 点时间 来跌幅 | 倾向于更多存款 | 倾向于更多投资: 当期收入感受 投资股票 | 指数 ...