执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100524080007 执业证号：S0100125070003 ➢ 随着沪指翻过去年 10 月 8 日盘中创下的 3674 高点，A 股在继续着自己 "跑赢"纪录： ➢ 跑赢"自己"，经过数年的"卧薪尝胆"和关税的"洗礼"，似乎完成了蜕变， 透露出成熟市场的从容自信，也不乏新兴市场的积极和活力。 ➢ 跑赢"GDP"，截至二季度，股市同比增速已连续四个季度跑赢经济增长， 这也是自 2021 年下半年以来首次。 ➢ 如果我们回顾今年以来面临的国内外环境的诸多压力，无疑会有感于 A 股 这一逆势突围的"难能可贵"，以及"稳定和活跃资本市场"的含金量。那么如何 看待 A 股的"跑赢"行情的前景？ A 股"跑赢"行情的新高度 2025 年 08 月 13 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：邵翔 研究助理：武朔 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 邮箱：wushuo@mszq.com ➢ 我们在报告《股市跑赢 GDP：分析框架和中外镜鉴》中，引入实际 GDP 和 通胀的二维框架，在"量升价降"的 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has outperformed GDP growth for four consecutive quarters since Q3 2024, marking the first time since the second half of 2021[3] - The probability of the stock market outperforming GDP in China since 2000 is approximately 32%, with an average duration of about 6 quarters[4] - In contrast, the U.S. stock market has outperformed GDP over 60% of the time since 2000, indicating a stronger correlation between stock performance and economic growth in the U.S.[4] Group 2: Economic Context - The report emphasizes the importance of nominal GDP in the context of inflation and debt cycles, suggesting that nominal GDP reflects the economic value created across industries[3] - The analysis introduces a two-dimensional framework of real GDP and inflation, indicating that stock market outperformance is more likely during periods of "volume increase and price decrease" or "simultaneous volume and price increase"[4] - Historical examples show that when real GDP rises and the GDP deflator remains low, the probability and duration of stock market outperformance increase, as seen in the U.S. during the 1990s tech boom[7] Group 3: Factors Influencing Stock Performance - The report identifies two main factors contributing to stock market outperformance: earnings expectations (E) and non-earnings factors (PE) such as market sentiment and liquidity[4] - In the current context, the A-share market's outperformance is notable due to significant re-inflation pressures, which is relatively rare based on historical precedents[5] - The report suggests that future market trends could follow two paths: a technology-driven slow growth route or a cyclical recovery route with rising real GDP and inflation[10]