Economic Overview - The economy in July shows signs of weak recovery, with a potential trend of high-to-low performance throughout the year, indicating increased volatility due to external uncertainties[1] - The nominal GDP is projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan, with limited elasticity in growth rates and GDP deflator index in the second half of the year[12] Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, while month-on-month growth was 0.38%[14] - Manufacturing demand is recovering but showing signs of marginal slowdown, with the new orders index at 49.4%, indicating a decrease in manufacturing market demand[16] Consumer Spending - The retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June, with a notable decline of 1.1 percentage points[19] - Factors affecting retail sales include reduced funding for the "old-for-new" policy, which decreased from 162 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 to 138 billion yuan in the second half[21] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, which is below market expectations of 2.7%[29] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0%[29] Employment Trends - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, slightly up from the previous month, reflecting seasonal pressures from the graduation season[6] - Employment policies are being implemented to mitigate youth unemployment, including support for job creation in various sectors[6] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2% year-on-year, but July recorded a negative growth of -0.3%, the first negative reading since July 2020, primarily due to high base effects and uncertainties from trade tensions[45] - The overall investment environment remains cautious, with private investment declining by 1.5% year-on-year, particularly in the real estate sector[29]

Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market has outperformed GDP growth for four consecutive quarters since Q3 2024, marking the first time since the second half of 2021[3] - The probability of the stock market outperforming GDP in China since 2000 is approximately 32%, with an average duration of about 6 quarters[4] - In contrast, the U.S. stock market has outperformed GDP over 60% of the time since 2000, indicating a stronger correlation between stock performance and economic growth in the U.S.[4] Group 2: Economic Context - The report emphasizes the importance of nominal GDP in the context of inflation and debt cycles, suggesting that nominal GDP reflects the economic value created across industries[3] - The analysis introduces a two-dimensional framework of real GDP and inflation, indicating that stock market outperformance is more likely during periods of "volume increase and price decrease" or "simultaneous volume and price increase"[4] - Historical examples show that when real GDP rises and the GDP deflator remains low, the probability and duration of stock market outperformance increase, as seen in the U.S. during the 1990s tech boom[7] Group 3: Factors Influencing Stock Performance - The report identifies two main factors contributing to stock market outperformance: earnings expectations (E) and non-earnings factors (PE) such as market sentiment and liquidity[4] - In the current context, the A-share market's outperformance is notable due to significant re-inflation pressures, which is relatively rare based on historical precedents[5] - The report suggests that future market trends could follow two paths: a technology-driven slow growth route or a cyclical recovery route with rising real GDP and inflation[10]

第三，尽管量的指标回落，但价格指标出现了初步扩张（图）。原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分 别比上月上升3.1和2.1个点，这一则意味着"反内卷"取得了初步效果；二则意味着上游对下游的传导一 定程度上是有效的。前期EPMI实际上也有类似指向，当时我们指出"新能源、节能环保、新能源汽车销 售价格有不同程度上行，反内卷政策升温可能是主要影响变量"。 第四，值得注意的是，企业生产经营活动预期至4个月以来最高，这证实了微观预期更多和名义GDP相 关这样一个基本逻辑。只要量的收缩幅度可控，价格弹性对于企业生产经营活动预期有积极影响。 广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 摘要 第一，7月制造业、非制造业PMI双放缓。7月是制造业淡季，过去5年、10年同期环比均值分别 为-0.3、-0.2，今年7月的-0.4个点对应的放缓幅度略大于季节性。 第二，订单放缓幅度略大于生产，显示本轮放缓是从需求向供给传导。订单和生产环比分别为0.8、0.5 个点。从终端需求来看，可能有几个原因：一是耐用品脉冲充分释放后有所减弱，7月前27天乘联会口 径汽车零售环比上月同期下降19%，同比降至9%；二是地产销售近月转弱，7月前30天30城地产成交同 比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI both showed a decline in July, indicating a seasonal slowdown that is slightly more pronounced than in previous years. The decline in orders is greater than that in production, suggesting a transmission of slowdown from demand to supply [1][4][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI - In July, the manufacturing PMI was recorded at 49.3, down from 49.7, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 50.1, down from 50.5. The historical average for July over the past 5 and 10 years was -0.3 and -0.2 respectively, indicating this year's decline is slightly above seasonal norms [5][4]. - The new orders index for manufacturing was 49.4, lower than the previous 50.2, and the new export orders index was 47.1, down from 47.7 [6]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The slowdown in orders is attributed to several factors: a decrease in durable goods demand, with automotive retail sales dropping 19% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year; a decline in real estate sales, with a 21.2% year-on-year drop in transactions across 30 cities; and a potential contraction in production activities in some industrial sectors due to rising "anti-involution" sentiments [1][5]. Group 3: Price Indicators - Despite the decline in quantity indicators, price indicators showed initial expansion, with the raw material purchase price index and factory price index rising by 3.1 and 2.1 points respectively. This suggests that the "anti-involution" policy is starting to take effect and that there is some effective transmission from upstream to downstream [2][7][8]. - The production activity expectation index for July reached its highest level in four months at 52.6, indicating a positive correlation with nominal GDP as long as the contraction in quantity remains manageable [8]. Group 4: Construction Sector - The construction sector showed a decline, with the construction PMI at 50.6, down from 52.8. This decline is attributed to adverse weather conditions and pressures from real estate sales and fiscal spending on infrastructure [9][10]. - The new orders index for construction was 42.7, down from 44.9, indicating a weakening in demand within the sector [11]. Group 5: Business Confidence Index (BCI) - The BCI fell by 1.6 points from June, with a current value of 47.7. The index reflects a trend of "sales declining, profits rising," which aligns with the logic of slowing real GDP and improving nominal GDP [12][13]. - The forward-looking indices for consumer goods and intermediate goods prices unexpectedly declined, indicating that while short-term prices may rebound, the medium-term expectations for price increases are not yet solidified [12][15].

Group 1: Economic Overview - Investment remains a drag on the US economy, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicting a 2.6% annualized growth rate for Q2, entirely driven by a reduction in imports [2] - Employment market shows resilience, with weekly initial jobless claims decreasing by 6,000 to 227,000, remaining at seasonal lows [2] - Fiscal policy remains expansionary, with a weekly fiscal deficit of $131.1 billion, higher than seasonal levels and stronger than historical averages [2] Group 2: US Market Performance - US stock market experienced a slight increase of 0.02%, driven by mixed signals from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rate outlook and differing expectations on tariffs' impact on inflation [3] - The outlook for US stocks suggests a potential return to a bullish trend, supported by corporate earnings resilience, although high valuations and increased tariffs may limit upward potential [3] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - Short-term focus on liquidity tightening pressure following the increase of the debt ceiling, with a maintained view of high volatility in US bond yields [3] - Strategy suggests maintaining a high allocation to short- to medium-term US bonds, with attention to potential opportunities if yields rise [3] Group 4: Currency Analysis - The US dollar is experiencing short-term support due to delayed tariffs and economic resilience, but medium-term trends remain weak due to uncertainties in tariff policies and fiscal pressures [3] - The Chinese yuan is expected to maintain a neutral trend, influenced by mixed factors including tariff impacts and ongoing interest rate differentials with the US [3] Group 5: Gold Market Dynamics - Short-term gold prices may remain volatile due to geopolitical issues and cooling interest rate expectations, but medium-term support is expected from central bank gold purchases [4] Group 6: Chinese Economic Trends - Anticipated Q2 economic growth of approximately 5.2%, with nominal GDP growth around 4% and a GDP deflator potentially declining to -1.2% [6] - Retail price competition continues, with significant growth in instant retail orders and a notable increase in passenger vehicle sales, despite challenges in the automotive sector [6] Group 7: External Demand and Pricing Pressure - Global manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5%, indicating ongoing recovery in global manufacturing and demand [7] - Chinese exports to the US are cooling, while exports to non-US regions remain strong, although pricing pressures are evident across various sectors [7] Group 8: Policy Developments - Recent government policies aim to stabilize employment and support businesses, including increased unemployment insurance and social security subsidies [7] Group 9: Domestic Market Strategy - Domestic market sentiment is improving, with a focus on "anti-involution" policies and urban renewal expectations, leading to a stronger stock market performance [9] - Bond market shows weakness, with a rise in 10-year government bond yields to 1.66%, influenced by risk appetite and tightening liquidity [9] Group 10: Stock Market Outlook - A-shares are experiencing upward movement driven by various factors, including easing US-China trade tensions and urban renewal policies, although the market remains vulnerable to corrections [10] - The Hong Kong stock market is facing risks of volatility, with current valuations at high levels and requiring further catalysts for upward movement [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the weak performance of CPI and PPI in May 2025, highlighting a deflationary trend and the factors contributing to this situation, including energy and food prices, as well as the broader economic implications for GDP growth and investment opportunities [1][4][11]. CPI Analysis - In May 2025, the CPI year-on-year was -0.1%, unchanged from the previous value, while the PPI year-on-year was -3.3%, lower than the previous -2.7% [1][4]. - The simulated deflation index, based on CPI and PPI weights of 60% and 40%, was -1.38%, the lowest in the past 16 months [1][4]. - The decline in CPI is attributed to a 1.7% month-on-month decrease in energy prices, which negatively impacted CPI by approximately 0.13 percentage points, primarily due to the transmission of commodity price declines influenced by tariffs [6][7]. - Food prices also saw a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, contributing to a 0.04 percentage point drag on CPI, with weak demand in the restaurant sector being a significant factor [6][7]. PPI Analysis - The PPI decline was exacerbated by two main factors: a decrease in global pricing raw materials and weak domestic construction product pricing [8][9]. - The oil extraction, processing, and chemical industries experienced expanded declines due to falling oil prices, with year-on-year price drops of -17.3% for oil extraction and -14.7% for oil processing [8][9]. - New industry products made a slight positive contribution to PPI, with some sectors like automotive and electronics showing a slight narrowing in their year-on-year decline [8][9]. Future Price Trends - Looking ahead, there is a potential for a slight narrowing of PPI declines in June due to recent rebounds in oil and copper prices, indicating a possible improvement in global pricing factors [10]. - However, to significantly alter the low PPI situation, prices in the construction and emerging industries need to exit the negative growth range, which requires effective local government investment strategies [10]. Economic Outlook - The macroeconomic environment since the "924" policy has shown signs of stabilization, with actual GDP growth expected to remain above 5% in the second quarter of 2025, despite pressures from exports to the U.S. [11]. - The current economic challenges are primarily related to low prices and nominal GDP, leading to high real interest rates and a heavier debt burden, which could affect investment and consumption opportunities [11].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年06月09日 [价格Table_NewTitle] 压力持续，亟待政策破局 ——国内观察：2025年5月通胀数据 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] 刘思佳 S0630516080002 liusj@longone.com.cn 联系人 李嘉豪 lijiah@longone.com.cn [table_main] 投资要点 宏 观 简 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 总 量 研 究 评 ➢ 事件：2025年6月9日，统计局发布5月通胀数据。5月，CPI当月同比-0.1%，前值-0.1%； 环比-0.2%，前值0.1%。PPI当月同比-3.3%，前值-2.7%；环比-0.4%，前值-0.4%。 ➢ 核心观点：5月CPI环比虽然符合季节性，但同比已连续4个月为负，PPI同比也突破了此前 持续震荡的区间下限。油价的下跌拖累了CPI中的交通和通信价格，也输入性影响了PPI中 相关产业价格。不过从6月第一周的情况来看，油价出现了明显的反弹，这一限制影响在6 月可能会有所减轻，但拉长时间来看仍存 ...

Group 1 - Japan's nominal GDP grew by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, matching expectations [1] - Japan's GDP decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q1, slightly worse than the forecast of -0.1% [1]

智通财经5月16日电，日本第一季度名义GDP环比增长0.8%，预估为0.8%。 ...

这个说法，有必要解释与调整一下 因为很多网友误认为，这个73227亿美元的GDP数额与"环比下降0.07%，按年计算的降幅为0.3%"有直接的关联。南生可以明确的告诉大家，它们之间没有 关联，是采用不同统计标准下的产物。 接下来南生给大家详细解释不同核算规则下，美国一季度的各项数值。先看采用经过日历与季节调整之规则，在此标准下有两个数值，分别是采用基准年物 价核算的实际GDP，采用市场物价核算的名义GDP。 在昨天的文章中南生写道：美国商务部已正式公布了2025年第一季度的经济成绩单，初步统计结果为"环比缩减0.07%、环比年化下降0.3%，但同比上涨了 1.9%"，按市场物价核算的名义GDP为73227亿美元。 以2017年的基准年物价核算，美国2025年第一季度的实际GDP数额为58815.25亿美元，去年第四季度为58855.75亿美元，环比减少40.5亿美元，环比降幅为 0.07%，将这个数值年化后就是"下降0.3%"。 同样是采用2017年的基准物价，去年第一季度的实际GDP为57633.75亿美元。与今年第一季度的58815.25亿美元相比，同比实际增长了2.1%。 采用基准年物价得到的各季度实际 ...