United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS), commonly known as UPS, is deeply unloved on Wall Street. The stock has lost more than half its value since hitting a high in early 2022. A big piece of the story is management's decision to revamp the business. Here's why investors are worried and why some investors think UPS' best days are still ahead. UPS' big problem During the coronavirus pandemic, demand for UPS' package delivery services was high. When social distancing ended, however, people returned to shopping ...

Core Viewpoint - FedEx has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive outlook on its earnings estimates, which significantly influence stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Movement - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are strongly correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - An increase in earnings estimates typically leads to higher fair value calculations by institutional investors, resulting in buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [4]. FedEx's Earnings Outlook - FedEx is projected to earn $18.00 per share for the fiscal year ending May 2026, with no year-over-year change expected [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for FedEx has increased by 0.4%, reflecting a positive trend in earnings estimates [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) stocks historically generating an average annual return of +25% since 1988 [7]. - FedEx's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, indicating strong potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

Core Viewpoint - FedEx is set to report its Q2 FY2026 earnings on December 18, with expectations of adjusted earnings per share (EPS) at $4.09 and revenue at $22.8 billion, following two previous quarters of exceeding market expectations [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - FedEx management anticipates a revenue growth of 4% to 6% year-over-year for FY2026, with unadjusted EPS expected between $14.20 and $16.00, and full-year adjusted EPS projected between $17.20 and $19.00 [1] - The company expects to incur a $1 billion loss this year due to trade disruptions caused by tariffs, including increased customs costs and a decline in shipping volumes, particularly between the U.S. and China [1] Group 2: Seasonal Demand Impact - Strong demand from the holiday shopping season is expected to boost FedEx's Q2 performance, with management indicating that seasonal results will remain moderately strong [2] - The upcoming quarterly EPS is anticipated to exceed last year's $4.05 [2] Group 3: Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs and persistent high inflation have negatively impacted consumer confidence and growth expectations, leading to a decline in FedEx's performance [3] - The DRIVE program, launched in Q2 FY2023, aims to enhance long-term profitability through cost-cutting measures, which include reducing flight frequencies, grounding certain aircraft, and layoffs [3] - Cost reduction initiatives, particularly in line-haul transportation and production efficiency, are expected to support profit margins in Q2 [3] Group 4: Strategic Partnerships - The market is looking forward to updates on FedEx's multi-year partnership agreement with Amazon, which involves FedEx delivering certain large packages for Amazon [4] - Recently, FedEx's competitor UPS has decided to reduce its business volume with Amazon, potentially benefiting FedEx's position in the market [4]

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is undergoing a significant turnaround as it faces challenges in the post-pandemic environment, with Wall Street remaining skeptical about its stock performance despite early signs of improvement [2][4][6]. Dividend Analysis - UPS has increased its dividend annually for 16 years, with the most recent increase being a token penny per share per quarter, indicating a desire to maintain its dividend streak despite business pressures [3][4]. - The dividend payout ratio is around 100%, and the cash dividend payout ratio is approximately 120%, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dividend if financial results do not improve [5][6]. - A reset of the dividend is more likely than elimination, as the company is in the midst of a business reset to enhance financial performance [6]. Business Strategy - UPS is focused on slimming down operations and improving profitability, which is challenging given the capital-intensive nature of package delivery [7][8]. - The turnaround strategy includes selling business lines, closing facilities, selling assets, investing in technology, and shifting focus to more profitable customers [9]. - Despite a decline in revenue, profitability has improved, with adjusted operating margin rising from 8.9% in Q3 2024 to 10% in Q3 2025, indicating progress in the turnaround efforts [10][11]. Financial Performance - Revenue fell by 3.7% year over year in Q3 2025, while adjusted earnings declined by 1.1%, suggesting that profitability is improving as revenue declines at a slower rate [10][11]. - The U.S. division saw a 9.8% improvement in revenue per piece, driven by customer and product mix changes, indicating positive developments in the core business segment [12]. Long-term Outlook - UPS's high dividend yield may signal value, suggesting that Wall Street's outlook is overly pessimistic, and long-term investors may find opportunities as early signs of improvement emerge [13]. - Even if the dividend is cut, it is expected to remain attractive relative to the market, emphasizing the importance of understanding UPS's long-term goals [14].

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) shares increased by over 10% in premarket trading following a stronger-than-expected third-quarter profit report [1] Financial Performance - UPS reported a third-quarter profit that exceeded analysts' expectations, contributing to the surge in share price [1] Market Reaction - The significant rise in UPS shares indicates positive investor sentiment and confidence in the company's financial health following the earnings announcement [1]

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street's expectations, with a net income of $1.31 billion or $1.55 per share, down from $1.99 billion or $1.80 per share year-over-year [1][4] - The company's shares surged nearly 10% in premarket trading following the earnings report [1] - UPS anticipates fourth-quarter revenue of $24 billion with an operating margin between 11% and 11.5% [2] Financial Performance - Adjusted profit for the third quarter was $1.48 billion or $1.74 per share, surpassing the expected $1.30 per share [1][4] - Revenue for the third quarter was reported at $21.4 billion, exceeding the expected $20.83 billion [4] Strategic Initiatives - UPS has implemented a turnaround plan, which includes a workforce reduction of 34,000 jobs, exceeding the previous estimate of 20,000 [2] - The company initiated a sale-leaseback transaction for five properties, resulting in a $330 million pre-tax gain in its supply chain solutions division [3] Leadership Commentary - CEO Carol Tomé emphasized that the company is executing a significant strategic shift aimed at delivering long-term value for stakeholders and is prepared for an efficient holiday shipping season [4]

Core Viewpoint - UPS is currently facing significant challenges in its end markets and is undergoing structural changes, leading to a 32% decline in stock price, which has increased its dividend yield to 7.7%, presenting a potential investment opportunity ahead of its third-quarter earnings report on October 28 [2]. Financial Performance and Guidance - UPS likely experienced a difficult third quarter, with management not updating its full-year guidance due to uncertainties from tariffs and macroeconomic conditions [3]. - The company has not provided updated guidance since April, citing a volatile macro environment and ongoing trade uncertainties [3]. - CFO Brian Dykes indicated risks of greater variability in small and medium-sized business (SMB) and enterprise volume, with profit margins potentially under more pressure than previously anticipated [4]. Cost and Employee Management - UPS's management noted that the employee attrition rate was lower than expected, leading to higher expenses than planned in the second quarter [5]. - The company is intentionally reducing its delivery volumes for Amazon by 50% from late 2024 to mid-2026, with Amazon deliveries accounting for 11.8% of UPS's revenue in 2024 [6]. - Despite the preference for a higher attrition rate in the context of reduced delivery volumes, the actual attrition rate has not met expectations [6]. Market Challenges - UPS continues to face significant challenges in key end markets, including the reduction of delivery volumes for Amazon and taking over last-mile deliveries previously handled by the Postal Service [7]. - The company is also contending with higher-than-expected personnel costs due to lower employee turnover than predicted [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of United Parcel Service (UPS), highlighting the challenges faced by the company and its guidance for upcoming years [2][3]. Financial Guidance - UPS provided guidance for 2024 revenue between $92 billion and $94.5 billion, with actual results reported at $91.1 billion. For 2026, the guidance was set at $108 billion to $114 billion, while Wall Street analysts currently estimate $88 billion [4]. - The consolidated adjusted operating profit guidance for 2024 was between $9.2 billion and $10 billion, with actual results at $8.9 billion. For 2026, the guidance was $14.3 billion to $14.9 billion, while the analyst consensus is $8.7 billion [4]. Challenges Faced - Following the investor day in March 2024, UPS revised its full-year 2024 guidance to $93 billion, slightly below the previous midpoint, with an implied adjusted operating profit of $8.74 billion [5]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a shift in customer preferences towards value products and an increase in lower-value volumes from new e-commerce entrants in the U.S. [6]. - UPS is unlikely to meet the 2026 targets set during the investor day due to tariff uncertainties and overcapacity in the small package segment [6]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to focus on growth in higher-margin markets, particularly small and medium-sized businesses (SMB) and healthcare [7]. - It is expected that excess capacity in the U.S. small package delivery market will decrease as demand improves and supply growth moderates [7]. - Investments in the "network of the future" are anticipated to enhance productivity, reduce costs per package, and facilitate facility consolidation [7].

Core Viewpoint - There are discussions about whether United Parcel Service (UPS) should cut its dividend, with some suggesting it could create more shareholder value if it did. However, many income investors may not favor this idea, raising concerns about the sustainability of UPS' 6.7% yielding dividend [1]. Financial Concerns - UPS has a dividend payout ratio of a little over 95%, indicating potential risk to its dividend sustainability [3]. - The dividend payout ratio can be misleading as it is based on earnings, which may be affected by non-cash charges like amortization and depreciation [4]. - In Q1 2025, UPS generated nearly $1.5 billion in free cash flow and paid $1.35 billion in dividends, resulting in a payout ratio based on free cash flow of 90%, providing some leeway but still not ideal [5]. Management Insights - UPS CEO Carol Tomé did not mention the dividend in the Q1 earnings call, which may raise concerns among income investors about management's commitment to the dividend [6]. Positive Developments - UPS plans to reduce its Amazon shipping volume by half by mid-2026, which will decrease operational hours by approximately 25 million and lead to the closure of 164 buildings, potentially improving profitability [8]. - The company is implementing efficiency improvements, including automation in 400 facilities by the end of 2025, aiming to cut costs by $3.5 billion in 2025, which could enhance free cash flow [10]. - Recent court rulings may lessen the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on UPS, potentially benefiting the company's financial outlook [11]. Dividend Sustainability - The current assessment suggests that UPS' dividend is sustainable for now, although the board may still consider a cut in the future. If the efficiency improvements and Amazon reductions yield expected results, a dividend cut may not be necessary for a considerable time [12].

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) offers a substantial dividend yield of 6.4%, supported by 16 consecutive annual dividend increases, making it attractive for income-seeking investors [1] - The stock has experienced significant volatility, losing over 50% of its value since its peak in early 2022 due to changing market conditions and investor sentiment [2] Business Performance - UPS has undergone a major business overhaul, including facility closures and modernization efforts, aimed at boosting profitability, with profit margins showing signs of stabilization [3] - The company has made a strategic decision to reduce its reliance on Amazon, its largest customer, due to low profitability in that segment, which may lead to short-term challenges but is expected to be beneficial in the long run [5][6] Market Environment - Current tariff policies from the U.S. administration have created uncertainty in global trade, contributing to a nearly 20% decline in UPS shares in 2025 [7] - Despite negative sentiment, there is a belief that global trade will recover, as evidenced by recent trade talks between the U.S. and China, suggesting that investor pessimism may be overstated [8] Operational Outlook - UPS is focusing on streamlining its operations while adapting to reduced package volumes due to the shift away from Amazon deliveries, with execution being a critical factor to monitor [9] - The company has shown resilience, with year-over-year increases in revenues and operating profits in the first quarter of 2025, indicating effective execution amidst challenges [10]