Investors might want to bet on FedEx (FDX) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). This upgrade primarily reflects an upward trend in earnings estimates, which is one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracked by the system.Individual inves ...

关税相关的不确定性以及持续高企的通胀一直打击着消费者信心和增长预期。由于后疫情时代货运量和 价格趋势尚未恢复正常，联邦快递的业绩持续下滑。在 2023 财年第二季度，联邦快递宣布推出 DRIVE 计划，这是一项旨在提升其长期盈利能力的综合性项目。 即将公布的季度业绩也可能受益于DRIVE项目带来的成本削减效益。管理层目前的优先事项是提升客 户体验并提高成本效益，这凸显了联邦快递为适应不断变化的行业需求所做的努力。 这些成本削减措施包括减少航班频次、停飞部分飞机和裁员。预计成本削减措施，特别是干线运输费用 和生产效率方面的削减，将在第二财季支撑利润率。 联邦快递(FDX.US)将在12月18日盘后公布其2026财年第二季度财报。华尔街预计其调整后每股收益为 4.09美元，营收为228亿美元。在过去两个季度，联邦快递的营收和收益均超出市场预期。 此前，联邦快递管理层表示，预计2026财年营收将同比增长4%至6%。未经调整的每股收益预期为14.20 美元至16.00美元。全年调整后每股收益预计在17.20美元至19.0美元之间。该公司预计，由于关税引发 的贸易中断（包括清关成本上升和货运量下降，尤其是中美货运量下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - United Parcel Service (UPS) is undergoing a significant turnaround as it faces challenges in the post-pandemic environment, with Wall Street remaining skeptical about its stock performance despite early signs of improvement [2][4][6]. Dividend Analysis - UPS has increased its dividend annually for 16 years, with the most recent increase being a token penny per share per quarter, indicating a desire to maintain its dividend streak despite business pressures [3][4]. - The dividend payout ratio is around 100%, and the cash dividend payout ratio is approximately 120%, raising concerns about the sustainability of the dividend if financial results do not improve [5][6]. - A reset of the dividend is more likely than elimination, as the company is in the midst of a business reset to enhance financial performance [6]. Business Strategy - UPS is focused on slimming down operations and improving profitability, which is challenging given the capital-intensive nature of package delivery [7][8]. - The turnaround strategy includes selling business lines, closing facilities, selling assets, investing in technology, and shifting focus to more profitable customers [9]. - Despite a decline in revenue, profitability has improved, with adjusted operating margin rising from 8.9% in Q3 2024 to 10% in Q3 2025, indicating progress in the turnaround efforts [10][11]. Financial Performance - Revenue fell by 3.7% year over year in Q3 2025, while adjusted earnings declined by 1.1%, suggesting that profitability is improving as revenue declines at a slower rate [10][11]. - The U.S. division saw a 9.8% improvement in revenue per piece, driven by customer and product mix changes, indicating positive developments in the core business segment [12]. Long-term Outlook - UPS's high dividend yield may signal value, suggesting that Wall Street's outlook is overly pessimistic, and long-term investors may find opportunities as early signs of improvement emerge [13]. - Even if the dividend is cut, it is expected to remain attractive relative to the market, emphasizing the importance of understanding UPS's long-term goals [14].

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) shares increased by over 10% in premarket trading following a stronger-than-expected third-quarter profit report [1] Financial Performance - UPS reported a third-quarter profit that exceeded analysts' expectations, contributing to the surge in share price [1] Market Reaction - The significant rise in UPS shares indicates positive investor sentiment and confidence in the company's financial health following the earnings announcement [1]

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street's expectations, with a net income of $1.31 billion or $1.55 per share, down from $1.99 billion or $1.80 per share year-over-year [1][4] - The company's shares surged nearly 10% in premarket trading following the earnings report [1] - UPS anticipates fourth-quarter revenue of $24 billion with an operating margin between 11% and 11.5% [2] Financial Performance - Adjusted profit for the third quarter was $1.48 billion or $1.74 per share, surpassing the expected $1.30 per share [1][4] - Revenue for the third quarter was reported at $21.4 billion, exceeding the expected $20.83 billion [4] Strategic Initiatives - UPS has implemented a turnaround plan, which includes a workforce reduction of 34,000 jobs, exceeding the previous estimate of 20,000 [2] - The company initiated a sale-leaseback transaction for five properties, resulting in a $330 million pre-tax gain in its supply chain solutions division [3] Leadership Commentary - CEO Carol Tomé emphasized that the company is executing a significant strategic shift aimed at delivering long-term value for stakeholders and is prepared for an efficient holiday shipping season [4]

Core Viewpoint - UPS is currently facing significant challenges in its end markets and is undergoing structural changes, leading to a 32% decline in stock price, which has increased its dividend yield to 7.7%, presenting a potential investment opportunity ahead of its third-quarter earnings report on October 28 [2]. Financial Performance and Guidance - UPS likely experienced a difficult third quarter, with management not updating its full-year guidance due to uncertainties from tariffs and macroeconomic conditions [3]. - The company has not provided updated guidance since April, citing a volatile macro environment and ongoing trade uncertainties [3]. - CFO Brian Dykes indicated risks of greater variability in small and medium-sized business (SMB) and enterprise volume, with profit margins potentially under more pressure than previously anticipated [4]. Cost and Employee Management - UPS's management noted that the employee attrition rate was lower than expected, leading to higher expenses than planned in the second quarter [5]. - The company is intentionally reducing its delivery volumes for Amazon by 50% from late 2024 to mid-2026, with Amazon deliveries accounting for 11.8% of UPS's revenue in 2024 [6]. - Despite the preference for a higher attrition rate in the context of reduced delivery volumes, the actual attrition rate has not met expectations [6]. Market Challenges - UPS continues to face significant challenges in key end markets, including the reduction of delivery volumes for Amazon and taking over last-mile deliveries previously handled by the Postal Service [7]. - The company is also contending with higher-than-expected personnel costs due to lower employee turnover than predicted [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state and future prospects of United Parcel Service (UPS), highlighting the challenges faced by the company and its guidance for upcoming years [2][3]. Financial Guidance - UPS provided guidance for 2024 revenue between $92 billion and $94.5 billion, with actual results reported at $91.1 billion. For 2026, the guidance was set at $108 billion to $114 billion, while Wall Street analysts currently estimate $88 billion [4]. - The consolidated adjusted operating profit guidance for 2024 was between $9.2 billion and $10 billion, with actual results at $8.9 billion. For 2026, the guidance was $14.3 billion to $14.9 billion, while the analyst consensus is $8.7 billion [4]. Challenges Faced - Following the investor day in March 2024, UPS revised its full-year 2024 guidance to $93 billion, slightly below the previous midpoint, with an implied adjusted operating profit of $8.74 billion [5]. - The decline in performance is attributed to a shift in customer preferences towards value products and an increase in lower-value volumes from new e-commerce entrants in the U.S. [6]. - UPS is unlikely to meet the 2026 targets set during the investor day due to tariff uncertainties and overcapacity in the small package segment [6]. Strategic Focus - The company aims to focus on growth in higher-margin markets, particularly small and medium-sized businesses (SMB) and healthcare [7]. - It is expected that excess capacity in the U.S. small package delivery market will decrease as demand improves and supply growth moderates [7]. - Investments in the "network of the future" are anticipated to enhance productivity, reduce costs per package, and facilitate facility consolidation [7].

Core Viewpoint - There are discussions about whether United Parcel Service (UPS) should cut its dividend, with some suggesting it could create more shareholder value if it did. However, many income investors may not favor this idea, raising concerns about the sustainability of UPS' 6.7% yielding dividend [1]. Financial Concerns - UPS has a dividend payout ratio of a little over 95%, indicating potential risk to its dividend sustainability [3]. - The dividend payout ratio can be misleading as it is based on earnings, which may be affected by non-cash charges like amortization and depreciation [4]. - In Q1 2025, UPS generated nearly $1.5 billion in free cash flow and paid $1.35 billion in dividends, resulting in a payout ratio based on free cash flow of 90%, providing some leeway but still not ideal [5]. Management Insights - UPS CEO Carol Tomé did not mention the dividend in the Q1 earnings call, which may raise concerns among income investors about management's commitment to the dividend [6]. Positive Developments - UPS plans to reduce its Amazon shipping volume by half by mid-2026, which will decrease operational hours by approximately 25 million and lead to the closure of 164 buildings, potentially improving profitability [8]. - The company is implementing efficiency improvements, including automation in 400 facilities by the end of 2025, aiming to cut costs by $3.5 billion in 2025, which could enhance free cash flow [10]. - Recent court rulings may lessen the impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on UPS, potentially benefiting the company's financial outlook [11]. Dividend Sustainability - The current assessment suggests that UPS' dividend is sustainable for now, although the board may still consider a cut in the future. If the efficiency improvements and Amazon reductions yield expected results, a dividend cut may not be necessary for a considerable time [12].

Core Insights - United Parcel Service (UPS) offers a substantial dividend yield of 6.4%, supported by 16 consecutive annual dividend increases, making it attractive for income-seeking investors [1] - The stock has experienced significant volatility, losing over 50% of its value since its peak in early 2022 due to changing market conditions and investor sentiment [2] Business Performance - UPS has undergone a major business overhaul, including facility closures and modernization efforts, aimed at boosting profitability, with profit margins showing signs of stabilization [3] - The company has made a strategic decision to reduce its reliance on Amazon, its largest customer, due to low profitability in that segment, which may lead to short-term challenges but is expected to be beneficial in the long run [5][6] Market Environment - Current tariff policies from the U.S. administration have created uncertainty in global trade, contributing to a nearly 20% decline in UPS shares in 2025 [7] - Despite negative sentiment, there is a belief that global trade will recover, as evidenced by recent trade talks between the U.S. and China, suggesting that investor pessimism may be overstated [8] Operational Outlook - UPS is focusing on streamlining its operations while adapting to reduced package volumes due to the shift away from Amazon deliveries, with execution being a critical factor to monitor [9] - The company has shown resilience, with year-over-year increases in revenues and operating profits in the first quarter of 2025, indicating effective execution amidst challenges [10]