二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 10 日 股指基差系列： 风偏下行的双向波动可能持续 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | 报告导读： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ "九三"共识兑现过后各板块出现结构性过热后的价值回归，A 股成交温和缩量，单日成交逐 步下滑至 2.2 万亿左右，热点题材的虹吸效应增强，板块轮动加速，宽基指数先下跌后缓慢 修复，多数指数月线涨幅收窄，双创指数月线表现依然强势，涨幅在 10%以上，中小盘受伤较 重，中证 2000 月线转跌。 ◼ 月初调整过后，各品种日度级别的基差变化与指数变动的关联较弱，多数交易日呈现双向波 动，同时日内 1min 级别的基差变化在品种间分歧依然较大，这或许说明当前期货场内风险偏 好并未改善，仍然是相对无序的状态。截至 9 月末，各品种年化基差率回升至近三年以来 20% 分位数附近。 ◼ 产品端来看， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, the market sought balance between economic and foreign trade pressures and policy support. The market was affected by overseas tariff issues, with policy - makers taking a firm stance to support the market. The transaction volume decreased, and the basis of stock index futures changed significantly. The basis of IH and IF weakened slightly compared to the end of last month, while IC and IM remained basically the same. In the future, the basis of IH and IF may rise with the inflow of long - term funds, and the deep discount of IC and IM is likely to converge [5][22]. - There are potential long - term bullish factors in the product side, such as the increase in the share of index ETFs and the new issuance of index - enhanced products. The neutral strategy has stable performance, and the impact of over - the - counter options on the futures market has basically ended [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Recent Basis Review - **Market Situation**: In April, the market faced external tariff pressure at the beginning, with small - cap and high - valuation sectors under pressure. The policy layer actively supported the market, and the core broad - based indexes were strongly supported. As the tariff issue eased, the market was volatile and bullish, but the market's upward drive was insufficient, and the average daily trading volume of the whole A - share market dropped to 120 million. By the end of April, the broad - based indexes had not fully recovered, with small - cap stocks having a larger gap [6]. - **Basis Changes**: IH and IF basis weakened slightly compared to the end of last month, while IC and IM remained basically the same. As of April 30, 2025, the annualized basis rates of the quarterly contracts of IH, IF, IC, and IM were 0.76%, - 2.36%, - 8.43%, and - 11.23% respectively, still at a relatively low level in the past three years [8]. - **Driving Factors**: The main fluctuations in April came from the overseas tariff event on April 7, when IC and IM hit the limit down, and the hedging demand shifted to large - cap varieties, causing the basis of IH and IF to decline significantly. The change in the capital side was also an important factor. Due to the policy of restricting institutional stock sales, the basis of each variety declined rapidly on April 11, and the estimated impact scale on the futures side was about 30 - 40 billion [13][15]. - **Product - Side Changes**: Index ETF shares increased significantly, and index - enhanced products were newly issued at a relatively fast pace in April. The neutral strategy had stable performance, with a median return of about 4% and a maximum drawdown of about 1% since this year. The expiration peak of over - the - counter option products has passed, and the impact on the futures market has basically ended [5]. - **Future Outlook**: Currently, IH and IF are slightly discounted, and the potential increase in new - share subscription hedging demand has limited directional impact on the basis. The inflow of long - term funds from insurance may drive the basis of these two varieties to rise. For IC and IM, the deep discount is likely to converge as the over - the - counter option drive disappears and the neutral strategy cannot support a higher discount level [22]. 2. Long - Position Rollover Performance Review - **Performance Data**: As of April 2025, the annualized yields of the long - position rollover strategy for IF, IH, IC, and IM in the past 250 trading days were - 0.8%, 3.6%, 7.5%, and 8.9% respectively; the benchmark portfolios were 3.0%, 3.3%, 6.1%, and 12.3% respectively; the excess returns were - 3.9%, 0.3%, 1.4%, and - 3.4% respectively [26]. 3. Short - Position Rollover Performance Review - **Performance Data**: As of April 2025, the annualized yields of the short - position rollover strategy for IF, IH, IC, and IM in the past 250 trading days were - 4.8%, - 5.2%, - 6.5%, and - 12.2% respectively; the benchmark portfolios were - 3.6%, - 3.9%, - 6.7%, and - 12.1% respectively; the excess returns were - 1.1%, - 1.3%, 0.2%, and - 0.2% respectively [28].