二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 10 日 股指基差系列： 风偏下行的双向波动可能持续 | 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 李宏磊 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018445 | lihonglei@gtht.com | 报告导读： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 ◼ "九三"共识兑现过后各板块出现结构性过热后的价值回归，A 股成交温和缩量，单日成交逐 步下滑至 2.2 万亿左右，热点题材的虹吸效应增强，板块轮动加速，宽基指数先下跌后缓慢 修复，多数指数月线涨幅收窄，双创指数月线表现依然强势，涨幅在 10%以上，中小盘受伤较 重，中证 2000 月线转跌。 ◼ 月初调整过后，各品种日度级别的基差变化与指数变动的关联较弱，多数交易日呈现双向波 动，同时日内 1min 级别的基差变化在品种间分歧依然较大，这或许说明当前期货场内风险偏 好并未改善，仍然是相对无序的状态。截至 9 月末，各品种年化基差率回升至近三年以来 20% 分位数附近。 ◼ 产品端来看， ...

Core Insights - The private equity market has shown strong enthusiasm for product registration in 2025, with a total of 7,907 private securities products registered as of August 31, marking an 82.19% increase compared to 4,340 products in the same period of 2024 [1][2] Group 1: Product Registration Trends - The number of registered private securities products has rebounded significantly since March, with monthly registrations surpassing 1,000 products [1] - In July, a record high of 1,299 new private fund products were registered, while August saw a slight decline to 1,139 products [1] - The concentration of product registration remains evident, with 1,038 private equity managers registering only one product, while 76 billion-level quantitative private equity managers accounted for 24.48% of total registrations [2] Group 2: Performance of Key Players - As of mid-2025, Blackwing Asset led the industry with 95 registered products, followed closely by Wide De Investment with 79 products [3] - By the end of August, Wide De Investment had registered 118 products, while Blackwing Asset had 112, indicating a shift in registration speed among major players [3] - The top four private equity firms in terms of new product registrations in July and August were Mingchao Investment, Wide De Investment, Jiukun Investment, and Century Frontier, maintaining stable registration speeds [3] Group 3: Market Environment and Strategy - The small-cap style has been dominant in 2025, with increased stock volatility and high average daily trading volume creating favorable conditions for quantitative strategies [5] - The majority of registered quantitative products are focused on stock long strategies, with 1,666 products (46.48%) registered in this category [5] - The market has seen a notable increase in product innovation and strategy diversification, catering to various risk preferences among investors [6] Group 4: Regulatory and Operational Considerations - There has been no significant change in the regulatory requirements for product registration, with most products being registered within a week [4] - However, regulatory scrutiny may lead to requests for corrections or rejections of products under certain circumstances, such as overly broad investment scopes [4] - The planning of appropriate strategy capacity has become a crucial consideration for quantitative private equity firms in the second half of the year [7]

Overall Summary - The report is a weekly financial engineering report on the fund market, covering market performance, style analysis, and factor performance as of August 1, 2025 [3]. Market Performance - In the week ending August 1, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond, and Nanhua Commodity Index were -1.14%, 0.13%, and -2.46% respectively [3]. - In the public - fund market, there was a divergence in stock - bond returns in the past week, with medium - and long - term bonds outperforming. The index weekly return was 0.14%. Passive index returns in the equity market weakened, neutral strategy products mostly rose, pure - bond strategy returns in the bond market rebounded, convertible bond returns declined, and silver and energy - chemical ETFs in the commodity market significantly corrected, while gold and soybean meal ETFs had slightly weaker returns [3]. Style Analysis 1. Zhongxin Five - Style Index - Last Friday, the style index closed down, with growth and consumption relatively stronger. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of each style decreased month - on - month, and the cyclical style had a large decline in the indicator momentum [3]. - In the public - fund pool, the average return of consumption - style funds in the past week did not outperform the benchmark index, while cyclical and growth - style funds had better excess performance. The style coefficients of growth and stable styles slightly increased [3]. - The growth style rose to a historically high - congestion range [3]. 2. Style Timing Model - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style weakened marginally this week, the stable style rebounded, and the current signal favored the consumption style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was -0.41%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was 0.97% [3]. Barra Factor Performance - In the past week, the return of the residual volatility factor continued to strengthen, with a weekly excess return of 1.02%. The returns of the profitability and liquidity factors weakened. In terms of winning rate, the capital flow factor strengthened marginally, and the leverage and residual momentum factors decreased month - on - month [3]. - This week, the cross - sectional rotation speed of factors decreased marginally and was currently in a historically low - quantile range [3].