投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 10 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 宽幅震荡 | 短期资金止盈意愿 VS 中长期政策 利好预期发酵 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：宽幅震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均高开高走，全天震荡上涨。沪深京三市全天成交额 26718 亿元，较上一交易 日放量 4746 亿元。上证指数突破 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking willingness and long - term policy benefit expectation fermentation [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term trend is oscillation, the medium - term trend is upward, the intraday trend is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term capital profit - taking willingness and long - term policy benefit expectation fermentation [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, IM. The intraday view is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and declined, with the whole - day trading volume of 316.66 billion yuan in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets, an increase of 76.37 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The short - term decline is due to large previous increases, significant valuation increases, and insufficient confidence of investors to chase up. In the long - term, there is strong support from macro - policy benefits and net capital inflows. The key window period for policy introduction is expected to be in October. However, due to significant valuation increases of some stocks, there is still profit - taking pressure, resulting in short - term technical adjustment pressure on the stock index. The follow - up focus is on the game between capital profit - taking rhythm and policy expectation fermentation [5]

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2509 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 震荡偏强 | 上涨 | 政策端利好预期构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 9 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：上涨 核心逻辑：昨日各股指走势有所分化，IH 与 IF 表现为震荡整理，IC 与 IM 指数表现为震荡下跌。沪 深京三市全天成交额 29124 亿元，较上日放量 1348 亿 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is that it will fluctuate strongly, and the medium - term view is that it will rise. The reference view is also a rise. The policy - end positive expectations provide strong support, and investors' risk preference is actively optimistic [1][5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term is oscillating, the medium - term is rising, the intraday is oscillating strongly, and the overall view is rising, with policy - end positive expectations as the core support [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and rose, with IC and IM having the highest increases. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 175.91 billion yuan, an increase of 14.33 billion yuan from the previous day. External risk factors are easing, domestic economic data shows resilience, and the stock market risk preference is high. The trading volume is above 1.5 trillion yuan, and the margin balance exceeds 2 trillion yuan with continuous net buying of margin - trading funds, indicating strong investor confidence. Although the expectation of short - term policy intensification has weakened, policy support expectations still exist [5]