2025 年，资本市场仍处于复杂波动的周期之中，投资者如何在进攻与防守之间找到平衡，实现稳健穿越？在 2025 年雪球嘉年华主会场的压轴环 节，雪球副总裁张舒冰、丹书铁券投资经理陈俊涛、黑森投资创始人周涛，围绕价值投资在当下的实践与挑战，展开了一场深入而开放的思辨。 价值陷阱的识别与规避 张舒冰： 长期低估背后可能有深层原因，两位如何区分价值与价值陷阱？持仓过程中遇到过最大的价值陷阱误判是什么？后续做了哪些迭代优化？ 低估与确定性的抉择 张舒冰： 确定性往往意味着市场高度共识和较好的流动性，低估则意味着悲观和分歧。当二者无法两全时，两位如何决策？能否结合过往案例分 享？ 陈俊涛： 低估和确定性并不矛盾，很多时候是相辅相成的，投资最好选择同时具备这两大特质的标的。 2021 年初，中国核心资产被剔除出美国证券交易标的时，就出现了既低估又有确定性的标的，以通信行业某龙头公司为例，当时其市值不到 7000 亿港币，却拥有 4000 亿左右的现金及现金等价物，每年盈利达 1000 亿，既具备低估属性，又有明确的价值支撑。 周涛： 价值投资倾向于在仔细研究和耐心等待过程中，捕捉低估且确定性高的机会。但多数时间里，不是每 ...

Core Viewpoint - Value investment is understood as buying listed companies from the perspective of acquiring the business, focusing on the company's intrinsic value rather than market sentiment [1] Group 1: Investment Framework - The key factors in the investment framework are the difference between enterprise value and market price, which implies a long-term return rate [2] - The quality of the enterprise, referred to as "moat," is crucial in determining enterprise value [2] - The purchase price must be appropriate, ensuring that the implied return rate exceeds the required threshold [2] Group 2: Assessing Moat - A company's moat is established based on its specific business model, creating sustainable differences from competitors [3] - Cost advantages, such as economies of scale or production efficiency, are often the basis for a company's moat [3] - Evaluating a company's moat involves projecting its competitive advantages over a long-term horizon [3] Group 3: Monitoring Moat Changes - Changes in a company's moat can occur due to various factors, including procurement, production efficiency, and market conditions [4][5] - Tracking moat changes is a continuous process, not solely based on stock price fluctuations [6] - Observing industry events and regulatory changes can also impact the assessment of a company's moat [6] Group 4: Valuation and Pricing - A good purchase price is defined as one that offers value for money, where the implied return rate is high [8] - The assessment of enterprise value is inherently a range due to the variability in core assumptions [9] - When stock prices decline, if the enterprise value remains unchanged, it indicates a higher implied return rate, prompting further purchases [10] Group 5: Selling Logic - The selling strategy includes three scenarios: when the price rises and the implied return no longer meets expectations, when the assessment of enterprise value changes negatively, or when a better investment opportunity arises [13] Group 6: Expanding Capability Circle - Expanding the capability circle involves exploring unfamiliar businesses that may present interesting opportunities [14] - Researching companies that have been listed for a few years can provide comprehensive data for analysis [14] - Engaging with stocks recommended by internal and external analysts can also aid in expanding the capability circle [14] Group 7: Market Trends and Research Depth - Interest in sectors like smart driving, new energy vehicles, AI, and semiconductors is noted due to their potential impact on the economy and business operations [15] - A thorough understanding of new sectors should be prioritized over merely following market trends [15] Group 8: Communication with Stakeholders - The focus is on the quality of enterprises and the belief that prices will eventually align with value, although the timing of this alignment is uncertain [16]