高盛认为，美国机构信誉风险上升以及商品供应集中度加剧创造了"尾部风险"，投资者应考虑将商品纳入投资组合以实现分散化配置，黄金被列 为大宗商品领域"最坚定推荐"的投资标的，维持2026年中期4000美元的目标价不变，极端情况下可能升至4500美元以上。三大结构性趋势（能 源去风险化、国防支出增加、央行去美元化）正系统性收紧商品供需，支撑中长期牛市前景。 面对美联储独立性风险、供应链集中等因素影响，高盛指出，大宗商品，特别是黄金，正成为对冲传统资产风险的关键工具。 9月5日，高盛在最新的大宗商品策略研究报告中称，虽然基准情景下商品指数未来12个月回报预期温和，但 投资者应考虑将商品纳入投资组合 以实现分散化配置，黄金被称为"最坚定的多头推荐（highest-conviction long）" 。 研报认为， 美国机构信誉风险上升以及商品供应集中度加剧创造了"尾部风险" ，可能导致商品价格飙升的同时股债下跌。 黄金则被高盛列为 大宗商品领域"最坚定推荐"的投资标的 ，该行维持黄金2025年底3700美元/盎司、2026年中期4000美元/盎司的目标价，并指出在极端情况下 金价可能升至4500美元/盎司以上。 高盛还 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs highlights the rising risk of institutional credibility in the U.S. and increased concentration in commodity supply, creating "tail risks" that may lead to soaring commodity prices while stocks and bonds decline. Gold is identified as the "highest-conviction long" investment in the commodity sector, with a mid-2026 target price of $4,000 per ounce, potentially exceeding $4,500 in extreme scenarios [1][2][5]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the commodity index is expected to have only moderate positive returns over the next 12 months under the baseline scenario, with a bullish outlook on gold, copper, and U.S. natural gas, while anticipating a supply surplus in the oil market [4]. - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the increasing concentration of commodity supply poses significant risks, particularly as key commodities are sourced from geopolitically sensitive regions, leading to frequent supply disruptions and price volatility [6][7]. Group 2: Structural Trends Supporting Commodity Bull Market - Three structural trends—de-risking energy, increased defense spending, and dollar diversification—are tightening commodity supply and demand systematically, supporting a long-term bullish outlook for commodities [8]. - The de-risking of energy is expected to drive significant copper demand due to global energy security policies, with projections indicating that investments related to the power grid will contribute to 60% of global copper demand growth by 2030 [8]. - Increased defense spending in Europe is projected to rise from 1.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2027, which will boost demand for industrial metals like copper, nickel, and steel [8]. - The trend of central banks diversifying away from the dollar has led to a fivefold increase in gold purchases since 2022, significantly driving up gold prices [9].