Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs highlights the rising risk of institutional credibility in the U.S. and increased concentration in commodity supply, creating "tail risks" that investors should consider when diversifying their portfolios with commodities, particularly gold, which is recommended as the "highest-conviction long" investment [1][3]. Commodity Diversification Value - Since spring, the market has shifted from tariff uncertainty to tariff realities, stabilizing economic activity indicators and reducing the probability of a U.S. recession. Despite this, Goldman Sachs believes that the appeal of commodities as a diversification tool has increased due to slowing employment growth and high economic downturn risks [4]. Commodity Index Outlook - Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario indicates that the commodity index is expected to yield only moderate positive returns over the next 12 months [5]. Gold and Other Commodities Outlook - The firm maintains a bullish outlook on gold (due to strong central bank purchases), copper (driven by electricity, infrastructure, and defense demand), and U.S. natural gas (liquefied natural gas exports), while expecting current oversupply in the oil market to worsen [6]. Federal Reserve Independence Risk - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the risk of diminished Federal Reserve independence, which could lead to rising inflation, falling long-term bond prices, declining stock prices, and a weakened dollar reserve currency status. In contrast, gold remains a reliable store of value not dependent on institutional trust [7]. Commodity Supply Concentration Risks - Increased concentration in commodity supply poses significant risks, with key commodities being sourced from geopolitically sensitive regions. This situation has led to frequent supply disruptions, heightened price volatility, and rising imported inflation [8]. Structural "3D Trends" Supporting Long-term Commodity Bull Market - Three structural trends (De-risking energy, Defense spending, Dollar diversification) are systematically tightening commodity market supply and demand [10]. 1. De-risking Energy - Global energy security policies are driving a surge in grid investments, significantly increasing copper demand. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, grid-related investments will contribute to 60% of global copper demand growth, with copper prices expected to reach $10,750 per ton by 2027 [11]. 2. Increased Defense Spending - Military spending in Europe is projected to rise from 1.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2027, which will boost demand for industrial metals like copper, nickel, and steel, providing substantial support for metal prices [12]. 3. Central Bank "De-dollarization" - Since the freezing of Russian dollar assets in 2022, global central bank gold purchases have surged fivefold, driving a 94% increase in gold prices since then. Emerging Asian countries are expected to continue significant gold purchases for several years, creating a long-term institutional demand for gold [13].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs highlights the rising risk of institutional credibility in the U.S. and increased concentration in commodity supply, creating "tail risks" that may lead to soaring commodity prices while stocks and bonds decline. Gold is identified as the "highest-conviction long" investment in the commodity sector, with a mid-2026 target price of $4,000 per ounce, potentially exceeding $4,500 in extreme scenarios [1][2][5]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the commodity index is expected to have only moderate positive returns over the next 12 months under the baseline scenario, with a bullish outlook on gold, copper, and U.S. natural gas, while anticipating a supply surplus in the oil market [4]. - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the increasing concentration of commodity supply poses significant risks, particularly as key commodities are sourced from geopolitically sensitive regions, leading to frequent supply disruptions and price volatility [6][7]. Group 2: Structural Trends Supporting Commodity Bull Market - Three structural trends—de-risking energy, increased defense spending, and dollar diversification—are tightening commodity supply and demand systematically, supporting a long-term bullish outlook for commodities [8]. - The de-risking of energy is expected to drive significant copper demand due to global energy security policies, with projections indicating that investments related to the power grid will contribute to 60% of global copper demand growth by 2030 [8]. - Increased defense spending in Europe is projected to rise from 1.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2027, which will boost demand for industrial metals like copper, nickel, and steel [8]. - The trend of central banks diversifying away from the dollar has led to a fivefold increase in gold purchases since 2022, significantly driving up gold prices [9].

匈牙利经济部：匈牙利计划在欧盟财政限制框架内，增加国防支出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts indicate that increased defense spending may lead to a significant rise in debt issuance within the Eurozone [1] Group 1 - The increase in defense spending is expected to drive higher levels of debt issuance [1]

智通财经6月9日电，据报道，加拿大将宣布国防支出大幅增加。 ...

据报道，加拿大将宣布国防支出大幅增加。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is experiencing a significant rebound amid easing trade war tensions, but Goldman Sachs warns of substantial uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies and the underestimation of recession risks in the U.S. economy [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs predicts a 45% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months, driven by rising policy uncertainty and declining business confidence [2][3]. - Key indicators show that the proportion of respondents expecting economic activity to decline is nearing historical highs, alongside potential slowdowns in real income growth and ongoing financial tensions [3]. Market Predictions - In a recession scenario, the S&P 500 index could drop to 4,600 points, representing a 17.9% decline from recent closing prices, while high-yield credit spreads may widen to 788 basis points [3]. - Traditional hedging tools like long-term U.S. Treasuries and the dollar may fail to effectively mitigate stock market risks [4]. Investment Strategies - Gold is identified as the best hedge against recession, with prices potentially reaching $3,880 per ounce by year-end, driven by increased central bank purchases and shifts in private investor allocations [6]. - The report highlights that global gold ETF holdings are only 1% of the U.S. Treasury market size, indicating significant potential for price increases with even minor reallocations from other assets [6]. Oil Market Insights - Oil put options are recommended as a quality hedge in recession scenarios, with Brent crude oil prices potentially averaging $53 per barrel in a U.S. recession context [7]. - The report suggests that oil prices may experience larger declines in the next recession due to OPEC's current high spare capacity [7]. Structural Trends - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the "4D structural trends" that will favor gold and copper in the long term, including de-dollarization, increased defense spending, energy risk mitigation, and insufficient copper mining investments [9][10]. - The report anticipates that European defense spending will rise from 2% to 3% of GDP over the next five years, which will increase demand for copper and other metals [9]. Copper Market Outlook - Insufficient investment in copper mining could lead to price recoveries, with estimates suggesting copper prices may reach $10,600 per ton by December 2026 under non-recession conditions [10]. - In a recession scenario, copper prices could fall below cost support levels, potentially reaching $6,750 per ton [10].

众议院共和党计划增加1500亿美元的国防支出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The increase in defense spending does not imply that taxes will rise, social spending will decrease, or that the fiscal deficit will widen [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Defense Spending** - Spain's Prime Minister Sanchez emphasizes that the rise in defense expenditure is a strategic decision and does not correlate with negative impacts on taxation or social welfare [1] - **Taxation** - The statement clarifies that the increase in defense spending will not lead to higher taxes for citizens [1] - **Social Spending** - There is an assurance that social spending will remain unaffected despite the increase in defense budget [1] - **Fiscal Deficit** - The Prime Minister asserts that the fiscal deficit will not be exacerbated by the planned increase in defense spending [1]