Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs highlights the rising risk of institutional credibility in the U.S. and increased concentration in commodity supply, creating "tail risks" that investors should consider when diversifying their portfolios with commodities, particularly gold, which is recommended as the "highest-conviction long" investment [1][3]. Commodity Diversification Value - Since spring, the market has shifted from tariff uncertainty to tariff realities, stabilizing economic activity indicators and reducing the probability of a U.S. recession. Despite this, Goldman Sachs believes that the appeal of commodities as a diversification tool has increased due to slowing employment growth and high economic downturn risks [4]. Commodity Index Outlook - Goldman Sachs' baseline scenario indicates that the commodity index is expected to yield only moderate positive returns over the next 12 months [5]. Gold and Other Commodities Outlook - The firm maintains a bullish outlook on gold (due to strong central bank purchases), copper (driven by electricity, infrastructure, and defense demand), and U.S. natural gas (liquefied natural gas exports), while expecting current oversupply in the oil market to worsen [6]. Federal Reserve Independence Risk - Goldman Sachs emphasizes the risk of diminished Federal Reserve independence, which could lead to rising inflation, falling long-term bond prices, declining stock prices, and a weakened dollar reserve currency status. In contrast, gold remains a reliable store of value not dependent on institutional trust [7]. Commodity Supply Concentration Risks - Increased concentration in commodity supply poses significant risks, with key commodities being sourced from geopolitically sensitive regions. This situation has led to frequent supply disruptions, heightened price volatility, and rising imported inflation [8]. Structural "3D Trends" Supporting Long-term Commodity Bull Market - Three structural trends (De-risking energy, Defense spending, Dollar diversification) are systematically tightening commodity market supply and demand [10]. 1. De-risking Energy - Global energy security policies are driving a surge in grid investments, significantly increasing copper demand. Goldman Sachs predicts that by 2030, grid-related investments will contribute to 60% of global copper demand growth, with copper prices expected to reach $10,750 per ton by 2027 [11]. 2. Increased Defense Spending - Military spending in Europe is projected to rise from 1.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2027, which will boost demand for industrial metals like copper, nickel, and steel, providing substantial support for metal prices [12]. 3. Central Bank "De-dollarization" - Since the freezing of Russian dollar assets in 2022, global central bank gold purchases have surged fivefold, driving a 94% increase in gold prices since then. Emerging Asian countries are expected to continue significant gold purchases for several years, creating a long-term institutional demand for gold [13].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs highlights the rising risk of institutional credibility in the U.S. and increased concentration in commodity supply, creating "tail risks" that may lead to soaring commodity prices while stocks and bonds decline. Gold is identified as the "highest-conviction long" investment in the commodity sector, with a mid-2026 target price of $4,000 per ounce, potentially exceeding $4,500 in extreme scenarios [1][2][5]. Group 1: Commodity Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the commodity index is expected to have only moderate positive returns over the next 12 months under the baseline scenario, with a bullish outlook on gold, copper, and U.S. natural gas, while anticipating a supply surplus in the oil market [4]. - Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the increasing concentration of commodity supply poses significant risks, particularly as key commodities are sourced from geopolitically sensitive regions, leading to frequent supply disruptions and price volatility [6][7]. Group 2: Structural Trends Supporting Commodity Bull Market - Three structural trends—de-risking energy, increased defense spending, and dollar diversification—are tightening commodity supply and demand systematically, supporting a long-term bullish outlook for commodities [8]. - The de-risking of energy is expected to drive significant copper demand due to global energy security policies, with projections indicating that investments related to the power grid will contribute to 60% of global copper demand growth by 2030 [8]. - Increased defense spending in Europe is projected to rise from 1.9% of GDP in 2024 to 2.7% in 2027, which will boost demand for industrial metals like copper, nickel, and steel [8]. - The trend of central banks diversifying away from the dollar has led to a fivefold increase in gold purchases since 2022, significantly driving up gold prices [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut continues to provide medium - term support for the gold price. In the long - term, the logic of being bullish on gold remains unchanged. For silver, the tight supply - demand pattern and financial attributes provide bottom support, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation and domestic "anti - involution" measures may boost its industrial attributes, with room for the gold - silver ratio to repair. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices in the short - term, with attention to specific price intervals for gold and silver contracts [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 782.5 yuan/gram, up 1.08; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9075 yuan/kg, up 36. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver are 218,652 hands and 367,528 hands respectively, with changes of +956 and - 3523 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver main contracts are 168,376 hands and 99,074 hands respectively, with changes of +1709 and +614 hands. The warehouse receipt quantities of gold and silver are 36,009 kg and 1,157,291 kg respectively, with changes of +120 and - 16,982 kg [2] - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 780.3 yuan/gram, up 3.13; the silver spot price is 9048 yuan/kg, up 108. The basis of the Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver main contracts is - 2.2 yuan/gram and - 27 yuan/kg respectively, with changes of +2.05 and +72 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The gold ETF holdings are 954.8 tons, up 1.72 tons; the silver ETF holdings are 15,021.87 tons, down 34.79 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC are 223,596 and 59,407 respectively, with changes of - 29,442 and - 1213. The quarterly total supply and demand of gold are both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 and 54.83 tons respectively. The annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces; the annual global total demand is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] - **Option Market**: The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of gold are 12.15% and 11.47% respectively, up 0.6 and 0.22 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for gold are 18.26% and 18.25% respectively, up 0.45 and 0.44 percentage points [2] 2. Industry News - Trump said that India resells a large part of Russian oil on the open market for huge profits, and the US will significantly increase tariffs on India. The EU will suspend the implementation of tariff counter - measures against the US for six months and continue to cooperate to finalize a trade joint statement. San Francisco Fed President Daly said the time for interest rate cuts is approaching, and it seems appropriate to cut rates twice by 25 basis points this year. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 94.4% [2] 3. Operational Suggestions - Pay attention to the US trade balance and ISM services PMI data to be released tonight. It is recommended to try to go long at low prices in the short - term, with the Shanghai gold 2510 contract focusing on the range of 770 - 800 yuan/gram and the Shanghai silver 2510 contract focusing on the range of 8900 - 9100 yuan/kg [2]