Group 1 - The article highlights the unexpected strong responses from China and India against the U.S. tariff strategy aimed at pressuring them to stop importing Russian oil, indicating a shift in international order dynamics [1][2][4] - China's firm stance, articulated by its foreign ministry, emphasizes that "there are no winners in a tariff war," while India initially paused its oil purchases but later reaffirmed its commitment to Russian energy cooperation [2][4] - The strategic decisions of China and India reflect their economic interests, particularly the cost advantages from discounted Russian oil and the establishment of direct currency settlement systems, undermining Western sanctions [2][4][7] Group 2 - The article discusses the broader implications of the U.S. tariff strategy, which has proven ineffective, as Russia's oil revenues have increased despite sanctions, and its military capabilities remain robust [4][6] - The planned maritime operations by the UK and NATO against Russian oil tankers represent a significant escalation, potentially disrupting international shipping norms and reflecting desperation in Western strategies [4][6] - The actions of China and India are reshaping the development rules for Global South countries, showcasing their strategic autonomy in the face of U.S. hegemony and leading to a potential shift towards de-dollarization in global energy trade [6][7][8] Group 3 - The article suggests that the next three months will be critical in determining the outcome of this global energy conflict, with uncertainties surrounding NATO's maritime plans and the security of Russian oil shipments [8] - The potential for a new type of warfare, extending beyond traditional military confrontations to include energy supply chains and financial systems, is emphasized as a defining characteristic of 21st-century conflicts [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. measures to halt the purchase of Russian oil have created significant turbulence in the international energy market, leading to strong opposition from major energy consumers like China and India [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Legislative Actions - The U.S. government has enacted two binding laws since July 2025: the "2025 Sanctions on Russia Act" and the "Secondary Tariff Implementation Regulation," which impose punitive tariffs of up to 500% on countries continuing to purchase Russian energy [1]. - Despite the sanctions, U.S. companies imported over 12 million barrels of Russian oil in 2024 under special licenses, highlighting a double standard in the enforcement of these sanctions [3]. Group 2: Responses from China and India - In the first half of 2025, China imported 120 million tons of Russian oil, while India’s daily purchases exceeded 2.08 million barrels, demonstrating their commitment to energy autonomy [1]. - China has explicitly rejected energy procurement restrictions during the third round of U.S.-China negotiations and has conducted joint military exercises with Russia to strengthen energy cooperation [3]. - India has adopted a strategy of circumventing sanctions by increasing oil imports through private enterprises, with a 47% surge in Russian oil imports via Dubai [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Global Implications - The sanctions have accelerated the diversification of the energy system, with Russia signing currency settlement agreements with 15 countries, increasing the share of the yuan in Russian oil trade to 28% [4]. - The European Union is experiencing internal divisions, with countries like Germany and Hungary opposing further price caps on oil, fearing negative impacts on their manufacturing sectors [4]. - OPEC+ has adjusted its production strategy, with Saudi Arabia reducing daily oil production by 900,000 barrels for Q4 2025, contributing to a rise in Brent crude prices to the $86 range [4]. Group 4: Challenges to U.S. Energy Strategy - The U.S. energy ban faces legal challenges under WTO rules, economic backlash from allies, and political resistance from emerging economies, indicating a multi-faceted crisis for U.S. energy policy [4]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that non-dollar oil transactions could exceed 35% of total trade volume by 2026, further diminishing U.S. influence in the energy market [4].