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特朗普翻倍加税后,印度作出最终决定,不会禁运俄罗斯石油
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 23:46
一边是特朗普挥舞关税大棒,扬言"惩罚"印度;另一边,印度驻俄大使一句话,把美方的算盘彻底打乱:"我们不会考虑任何形式的禁运。" 就在美印关系急转直下的档口,印度不仅没退让,反而越走越近俄罗斯,连外长都亲自跑到莫斯科谈合作。这场围绕石油的较劲,背后藏着什么博弈?又是 谁在中间捞到了真正的好处? 8月21日印度驻俄大使维奈·库马尔在莫斯科直接摊牌:"印度将继续购买俄罗斯石油,不会考虑任何形式的禁运。"这话不绕弯、不设前提,摆明了立场:谁 来施压都没用,能源安全是14亿印度人的刚需,不容谈判。 说到底,这不是一场外交秀,而是一笔算得清清楚楚的经济账。俄油的价格优势摆在那儿,每吨能省下89美元,折扣比战前翻了三倍。更关键的是,印度买 完俄油还可以转手卖出去,中间的利润比卖香料还香,一年能赚160亿美元。说它是"战争套利"?好听点叫"市场行为",不好听也轮不到美国来指手画脚。 同一时间,印度外长苏杰生也在莫斯科和俄外长拉夫罗夫碰头,宣布要深化战略合作,在俄罗斯本土联合开采资源。这可不只是买卖关系,是要把"能源命 脉"直接接进自家插座里。稳得住油价、赚得到利润、锁得住供应链,这才是印度坚持俄油不动摇的底气所在。 特朗普这 ...
“特普会”后,特朗普改变了主意,对中俄亮绿灯,只有印度最受伤
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-17 14:25
Group 1 - The unexpected suspension of sanctions on Chinese purchases of Russian oil following the Trump-Putin meeting has created a significant shift in international trade dynamics, particularly benefiting China and Russia while adversely affecting India [1][3][10] - Trump's decision to delay the imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods until November 10 is strategically timed before the U.S. holiday shopping season, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [5][8] - The U.S. Treasury has estimated that imposing secondary tariffs on energy imports from China could result in an additional cost of up to $120 billion for U.S. retailers, highlighting the economic stakes involved [6][10] Group 2 - The energy cooperation between China and Russia is deepening, with the Power of Siberia pipeline already delivering over 200 billion cubic meters of natural gas, showcasing the strategic importance of this partnership [12] - India's reliance on Russian oil has surged from 0.2% to 40% over the past three years, but recent U.S. tariffs have forced Indian refiners to seek alternative sources, leading to increased costs and operational challenges [14][16] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with China emerging as a key player in negotiations, while India finds itself in a precarious position, struggling to maintain its economic interests amid rising tensions [18][20] Group 3 - The U.S. is quietly developing a "new trade framework" with China, which includes a list of exemptions for certain goods, indicating a strategic maneuver to regain leverage in trade negotiations [22] - European countries, while publicly supporting sanctions against Russia, continue to import Russian energy, revealing a complex and often contradictory stance in international relations [24][26] - The dynamics of international politics are increasingly driven by raw economic interests, with countries like China and Russia forming strategic alliances while India faces challenges in balancing its foreign relations [28]
特朗普吹的牛实现了?全球关税正式落地,中国这次也未能幸免
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-10 06:06
Group 1 - The core argument is that Trump's trade policies, initiated through tariffs, are disrupting global markets and causing economic strain both domestically and internationally [2][18] - The tariffs began at a baseline rate of 10% on all imports, which was later adjusted to rates as high as 50% for certain countries, significantly impacting trade relationships [4][6] - The U.S. Treasury saw a substantial increase in tariff revenue, reaching $29.6 billion by July 2025, primarily due to the new tariffs imposed [4][12] Group 2 - The tariffs affected not only adversaries like China but also allies such as Japan and South Korea, leading to increased tensions and unexpected financial burdens on these nations [6][8] - Countries like Brazil and India, despite being neutral, faced high tariffs, with Brazil's rate reaching 50%, which was framed as a benefit for U.S. farmers but had domestic political implications [8][10] - The global response included shifts in trade practices, with countries exploring local currency transactions to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, indicating a potential long-term shift in global trade dynamics [15][18] Group 3 - The impact of tariffs led to rising consumer prices in the U.S., causing dissatisfaction among the public and contributing to a decline in Trump's approval ratings [15][16] - The ongoing trade tensions have prompted countries to seek new alliances and trade agreements, potentially reshaping the global supply chain and economic landscape [16][18] - The overall effect of Trump's tariffs is seen as a short-term gain for the U.S. economy, but with long-term consequences that may lead to a slowdown in global economic growth [18]
霸权制裁遭遇滑铁卢!中印联手回击美能源禁令
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-04 00:01
Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. measures to halt the purchase of Russian oil have created significant turbulence in the international energy market, leading to strong opposition from major energy consumers like China and India [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Legislative Actions - The U.S. government has enacted two binding laws since July 2025: the "2025 Sanctions on Russia Act" and the "Secondary Tariff Implementation Regulation," which impose punitive tariffs of up to 500% on countries continuing to purchase Russian energy [1]. - Despite the sanctions, U.S. companies imported over 12 million barrels of Russian oil in 2024 under special licenses, highlighting a double standard in the enforcement of these sanctions [3]. Group 2: Responses from China and India - In the first half of 2025, China imported 120 million tons of Russian oil, while India’s daily purchases exceeded 2.08 million barrels, demonstrating their commitment to energy autonomy [1]. - China has explicitly rejected energy procurement restrictions during the third round of U.S.-China negotiations and has conducted joint military exercises with Russia to strengthen energy cooperation [3]. - India has adopted a strategy of circumventing sanctions by increasing oil imports through private enterprises, with a 47% surge in Russian oil imports via Dubai [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Global Implications - The sanctions have accelerated the diversification of the energy system, with Russia signing currency settlement agreements with 15 countries, increasing the share of the yuan in Russian oil trade to 28% [4]. - The European Union is experiencing internal divisions, with countries like Germany and Hungary opposing further price caps on oil, fearing negative impacts on their manufacturing sectors [4]. - OPEC+ has adjusted its production strategy, with Saudi Arabia reducing daily oil production by 900,000 barrels for Q4 2025, contributing to a rise in Brent crude prices to the $86 range [4]. Group 4: Challenges to U.S. Energy Strategy - The U.S. energy ban faces legal challenges under WTO rules, economic backlash from allies, and political resistance from emerging economies, indicating a multi-faceted crisis for U.S. energy policy [4]. - The International Energy Agency predicts that non-dollar oil transactions could exceed 35% of total trade volume by 2026, further diminishing U.S. influence in the energy market [4].
中国买俄油被特朗普制裁,普京却不吭声,他把中国安排得明明白白
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-21 04:04
Group 1 - The article discusses Trump's threats of sanctions against countries purchasing Russian oil, particularly targeting China and India, but the market remains largely unaffected, indicating skepticism about the feasibility of such sanctions [1][3][4] - Since 2022, China has imported nearly half of Russia's crude oil, with Chinese refineries accounting for approximately 47% of Russia's total oil exports, while India follows closely with about 38% [3][4][8] - Russia has established a "shadow fleet" to facilitate oil shipments to China and India, ensuring transactions bypass Western sanctions, supported by a mature currency settlement system between China and Russia [3][4][12] Group 2 - Putin's calm response to Trump's sanctions threat reflects a strategic arrangement, with Russia continuing to export oil and China maintaining its imports without altering its course [4][8][12] - The energy trade between Russia and China is characterized by a well-coordinated logistics system, with established pipelines and a reliable supply chain that ensures smooth operations [13][16] - Russia's approach to sanctions is based on a long-term cooperative strategy with China, viewing U.S. sanctions as a negotiation tool rather than a serious threat, as the U.S. is also concerned about its own inflation [16][19]
俄军1200万发炮弹到位,美国突然对中印开火:500%关税来了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-16 11:36
Group 1 - The article discusses the intensifying conflict between Russia and Ukraine, highlighting the significant military actions taken by Russian forces, including the use of 12 million artillery shells and a daily bombardment rate of 30,000 shells compared to Ukraine's 2,000 [3][4][5] - The involvement of North Korea in supplying ammunition and potentially troops to Russia is emphasized, with estimates of 25,000 to 30,000 soldiers on standby [7] - The U.S. response to the situation involves economic measures aimed at cutting off Russia's oil revenue, which is crucial for funding its military operations [9][11] Group 2 - The article outlines the potential impact of U.S. sanctions on countries like China and India, which heavily rely on Russian oil, and the implications for global oil prices and trade dynamics [11][16] - China's control over rare earth elements is highlighted as a strategic advantage, affecting U.S. military supply chains and prompting the U.S. to negotiate for resource access [13] - India's stance on energy procurement is presented as a matter of national sovereignty, with the government unwilling to compromise its energy needs for U.S. interests [16][22] Group 3 - The article suggests a shift in global economic dynamics, with countries moving towards de-dollarization and alternative trade agreements that bypass the U.S. dollar [17][20] - The internal divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine are noted, indicating a potential shift in alliances and strategies among member states [20][23] - The conclusion emphasizes that the true contest lies not in military might but in the ability to redefine global economic rules and alliances, marking a departure from unilateral dominance [25]
消息人士称,欧盟委员会预计将提议俄油价格浮动上限,作为第18轮制裁方案的一部分。
news flash· 2025-07-10 16:00
Group 1 - The European Commission is expected to propose a floating price cap on Russian oil as part of the 18th round of sanctions [1]